Coronavirus thread 12

[VivaLeBeaver]

Can’t see one? Sorry if there is one.

If the L and S types are circulating concurrently - and it is possible to be infected by both types simultaneously - I wonder if that can account for "false negatives" in between positives?

Italy is considering to put more towns in northern Italy on lockdown due to coronavirus - ANSA

I’ve just had an email survey from the .gov site asking if I was satisfied with the information I found there today! I responded that I shouldn’t need to get details of where new cases are from Mumsnet 😂 I wonder if they’re rethinking their weekly update!

has a European been reinfected ?

Abstract of the research article pasted below. Most of the journalists reporting on it don’t appear to understand what it says and so can’t explain it clearly to anyone else, and to make things worse are desperately trying to sensationalise it. The authors of the paper have done an analysis of 100 odd samples. The results tell us nothing about what’s going on in the thousands of other cases across the world at the moment. Much more research is needed to really understand what the virus is doing.

ABSTRACT

“The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic started in late December 2019 in Wuhan, China, and has since impacted a large portion of China and raised major global concern. Herein, we investigated the extent of molecular divergence between SARS-CoV-2 and other related coronaviruses. Although we found only 4% variability in genomic nucleotides between SARS-CoV-2 and a bat SARS-related coronavirus (SARSr-CoV; RaTG13), the difference at neutral sites was 17%, suggesting the divergence between the two viruses is much larger than previously estimated. Our results suggest that the development of new variations in functional sites in the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the spike seen in SARS-CoV-2 and viruses from pangolin SARSr-CoVs are likely caused by mutations and natural selection besides recombination. Population genetic analyses of 103 SARS-CoV-2 genomes indicated that these viruses evolved into two major types (designated L and S), that are well defined by two different SNPs that show nearly complete linkage across the viral strains sequenced to date. Although the L type (∼70%) is more prevalent than the S type (∼30%), the S type was found to be the ancestral version. Whereas the L type was more prevalent in the early stages of the outbreak in Wuhan, the frequency of the L type decreased after early January 2020. Human intervention may have placed more severe selective pressure on the L type, which might be more aggressive and spread more quickly. On the other hand, the S type, which is evolutionarily older and less aggressive, might have increased in relative frequency due to relatively weaker selective pressure. These findings strongly support an urgent need for further immediate, comprehensive studies that combine genomic data, epidemiological data, and chart records of the clinical symptoms of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).”

Sorry if this has already been posted...another cruise ship one

2,300 passengers are kept on a cruise liner in latest virus scare www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8074709/2-000-passengers-kept-cruise-liner-latest-coronavirus-scare.html?ito=native_share_article-masthead

I follow the Abel’s (who were on the Diamond Princess) on youtube and they appear to have tested positive then negative then positive again, would cases like this appear as being reinfected when infact the virus had never left the body in the first place?

@RhodaCamel I dont think they know yet

Would anybody be up for sharing the letters they’ve sent to their MP about the changes in reporting cases? I’ve tried to draft something but I think I’m just coming over as inarticulate and panicked...

I think they are leaning towards ut being a case of a slight fluctuation that can last several weeks but the patient continues to recover.

I hate all the downplaying posts on facebook etc but i did see somewhere that all the current active cases would only half fill wembley stadium. Obviously the figures will change but it helped put the current situation into some sort of perspective for me at least x

www.stokesentinel.co.uk/

Looks like another ambulance is bringing a patient into Stoke hospital. One confirmed case is already being treated there

I wanted to see when Italy were at 80 cases and how that multipled.

A week ago today Italy was at 400 known cases and more than 3k today I think.

That's an incredible growth. There was a 25% increase last Tues to Weds.

NEW: Number of confirmed cases of coronavirus worldwide reaches 95,000 t.co/eUoE2b20hL

All sporting events in Italy will take place without fans for at least the next month due to the coronavirus outbreak.

by @daniellamatar
t.co/U7Aumt3cZo

100,000 Israelis are currently in quarantine due to #Coronavirus. Any #Israel citizen returning to the country from #France, #Germany, #Switzerland, #Spain or #Austria will be required to enter 14 days of quarantine.

@middleager

I wanted to see when Italy were at 80 cases and how that multipled.

16 confirmed cases in Lombardy on 21 February, an additional 60 cases on 22 February.

Not quite 80 but they had 76 active cases on 22nd Feb.

Happy to be corrected if those dates / figures are wrong.

I think this was the full piece tud41 referred to ... the "active cases" graph is a little bit of relief among the gloom:

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#cases-growth-factor

My DS is at Kings on Monday for a procedure, I am not in a state of panic because of two possible cases. I will be taking him. The hospital is where many cases will be confirmed as they do lots of investigations and can pick things up. I have no doubt many folks are walking around with zero symptoms but have it. My DC schools provide daily updates on any suspected cases and my work does the same.

Its the first time I am anxious as I have a husband at home in the middle of radiotherapy, who has already lost 8 stone following surgery, previous radio to his throat and chemo that nearly killed him....however we have good hand hygiene and DC all have alcohol based hand gels too

I think at this point our gov is holding back and waiting for the right moment to go full steam on the measures seen in Italy and China. I think it’s a good plan (and I usually hate our government) because it will give a bit more time for the penny to drop in the people who are saying it’s just media hype.

@User1775564212 I think this is why there's no vaccine for the common cold

cloud I think that's the first (and so far only) patient being admitted. Interesting to point out it's a WMids Ambulance, so not a patient being transferred from Cheshire/NWales - which may sound odd, but Royal Stoke is the Trauma Centre for that area too.

Thanks for the information re Italy.

Does anyone wonder if they will start making people who can work from home. My office has set everyone I work with to work from home if it does come to that.