Coronavirus thread 12

[VivaLeBeaver]

Can’t see one? Sorry if there is one.

Wigan council saying 2 cases there, also Birmingham papers reporting their first case.

When they publish the stats it says "As of 9am (date)..." so they've already had 5 hours grace when they publish at 2pm. The figures are from 9am, but published later. They could have had another 100 between 9am and 2pm, but they wouldn't say.

@ScatteredMama82 for sure!

Done @WouldShouldCould

Anaappleadaykeeps - that is a really good idea. I might try and pull something similar together. Just basic info that I hold in my head that they would find helpful - and things to do in an emergency.

Thank you cheese. It’s common sense but it’s good to know.

As of 4 March, a total of 16,659 people have been tested in the UK, of which 16,574 were confirmed negative. 85 were confirmed as positive. I find this reassuring (if I've worked it out correctly) that 0.51% of those tested have been confirmed positive.

@cjt110. Your guess is as good, or better, than mine as I can't find reinfection rates info

@cjt110
Yes, I was there. On 23rd January I was in a school assembly and there were rumours re spread of the virus outside Wuhan. We all knew about the Wuhan situation. The Chinese New Year holiday started on 24th and by 26th you could not enter the supermarket or metro without a face mask. Lots of places are closed for the new year holiday, but streets were empty and the govt extended the holiday. Schools have been closed ever since.
Flights were cancelled, compulsory temp checks everywhere, non residents could not enter compounds and it continued from there. Office workers in my province started to go back to work last week and the aim is to relax restrictions whilst ensuring cases do not increase.
I live in Jiangsu btw

I'm still debating the school events. I have the extra issue of abusive ex attending albeit at different times and not wanting to be anywhere near him.

@usernameishistory I can only guess it may be a possibility as sadly I have had these immunology tests and know the info surrounding the false negatives.

@ShanghaiDiva That's interesting to hear. Are people starting to go about their business now, or still isolating?

@cjt110 your post is really helpful. It's important that the numbers who test as positive are taken in relation to the number tested. It worries me that some people on here are clearly very frightened and the numbers need to viewed in this context and in relation to the population as a whole.

Live updates on the independent say there's been a delay with today's figures and they're expecting an update soon

As of 4 March, a total of 16,659 people have been tested in the UK, of which 16,574 were confirmed negative. 85 were confirmed as positive. I find this reassuring (if I've worked it out correctly) that 0.51% of those tested have been confirmed positive.

It's not that reassuring! If you extrapolate it to the U.K. as a whole that's 331,500 people 😂

I own a nursery and have been told by my insurance provider that neither they nor any other insurance company will pay out in the event that schools and nurseries are ordered to close by the government.

This obviously means that none of my staff will get paid. I won’t even be able to pay them SSP, as will have no money coming in at all, and all nurseries will be in the same boat.

This is obviously why they have not ordered school closures. Too expensive to bail everyone out.

According to the DM (not sure if it's in any other more reliable sources) but Goldsmiths uni has a student with it. That's just up the road from me - as in, I can walk there in 5 mins. Two overground lines run from the local station and normal rail lines plus lots of buses so I'd imagine we will see a spread in SE London soon.

@kirinm - yes - Chesterman House, opposite Mughead. Link here: www.gold.ac.uk/staff-students/info/coronavirus/

A little bit of light entertainment

www.youtube.com/results?search_query=coronavirus+song+parody

It's not that reassuring! If you extrapolate it to the U.K. as a whole that's 331,500 people

No, it isn't anywhere near that. Those people weren't randomly tested. They presumably had symptoms and a travel or contact history warranting a test.

We have been speculating about how things will unfold since thread one. Discussing numbers is just part of that. It is shocking and upsetting but not ghoulish.

The whole thing is shocking and upsetting.

• As of 4 March, a total of 16,659 people have been tested in the UK, of which 16,574 were confirmed negative. 85 were confirmed as positive. I find this reassuring (if I've worked it out correctly) that 0.51% of those tested have been confirmed positive.

It's not that reassuring! If you extrapolate it to the U.K. as a whole that's 331,500 people*

No it's ok, not that many. It's 0.0051% not 0.51%

I'm growing more concerned by the day

I feel that all the coverage of moving onto the next phase delay is to soften up people for a known rise in numbers. The psychology of this is important as people need to cooperate, not panic. That will influence outcomes. We are being manipulated in a way, but probably for well studied reasons.

@unluckyagain It makes you see it is just a small amount.

Even in Mainland China with an infection rate of 80,411 the percentage of deaths is 3.7% Obviously, this is a lot higher than the tested/infected rate of the UK but I can't find anywhere the tested/infected numbers for China. Again, 3.7% of those infected have died is a scary number but is a small amount when you think relatively. And it reports 53,610 (66%) of those infected, are recovered

gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html?fbclid=IwAR3agkUuyCh15v-oRLZTbxT8QYWQq-pbg6rpFSwXoKOvW8U-hXYfYkIuPuA#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

No it's ok, not that many. It's 0.0051% not 0.51% I thought the calculation was 85/16,659*100 which makes 0.51023