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ColdOut2025 · 04/05/2026 21:49

logicisall · 04/05/2026 21:38

On Polymarket you bet on predictions. There's been a lot of insider trading by people in the Trump administration and family who know specifics on when things will happen eg Venezuela invasion

The restart of attacks in Iranian war has caused the price of oil to surge and in the US, there was already talk of a future increase in interest rate to cool inflation. This is more likely now with higher oil prices, so on Polymarket, they will be betting on when the interest rate will go up.

Thank you!! I only look at polymarket for the one about when the SoH will get back to normal, to try and give me a clue when the insider traders shift their bets

TooBigForMyBoots · 05/05/2026 01:37

logicisall · 04/05/2026 20:06

Arrrrgh, I mentioned bit*n! So it's not just the C word. Why did BTC get through then?

Post just said that all major stock indices were red at close.

I think we need a code for that type of shenanigans so posts aren't hidden.

Disney Dollars?

logicisall · 05/05/2026 05:23

@MarmaladeorJam given the rate at which Israel has been targetting and killing journalists, I not surprised that news is 'quieter'.

Seriously though, the news cycle is being dominated by Iran war because of its global impact and the seriousness of countries running out of oil. Have you clocked what is happening in South Korea?
The 'other threads' have gone quiet too. (Hope I haven't spoken too soon!)

RedTagAlan · 05/05/2026 05:36

“Well, I can’t tell you that. You wouldn’t — if I answered that question, you’d say this man is not smart enough to be president,”

Yes. He said that.

In context, he was asked if the ceasefire was still in force.

RedTagAlan · 05/05/2026 05:39

logicisall · 05/05/2026 05:23

@MarmaladeorJam given the rate at which Israel has been targetting and killing journalists, I not surprised that news is 'quieter'.

Seriously though, the news cycle is being dominated by Iran war because of its global impact and the seriousness of countries running out of oil. Have you clocked what is happening in South Korea?
The 'other threads' have gone quiet too. (Hope I haven't spoken too soon!)

Wots going on in South Korea then ?"

boatyardblues · 05/05/2026 05:49

RedTagAlan · 05/05/2026 05:39

Wots going on in South Korea then ?"

This recent (archived) Telegraph article gives a flavour of South Korea’s challenges. They have no domestic oil production and a huge manufacturing base. The blockade of Hormuz is already biting. https://archive.ph/zeGmh (ETA: South Korea refines oil but has no domestic oil or gas resources.)

logicisall · 05/05/2026 06:09

Just SKorea as an example of global effect of Iran war as a reason for news cycle dominance.
As a non producing oil nation that relies on ME oil, it's particularly at risk during the current shortage. They've introduced new number plate rotation rules to limit drivers, limited public sector driving and gov't relief to lower income families. Also busy reopening nuclear reactors, sourcing new energy suppliers and promoting renewables. They are going to become even more dependent on the US if it becomes their major oil supplier.

The War is hitting Asia differently, not just energy supply but new security concerns too.

RedTagAlan · 05/05/2026 06:16

logicisall · 05/05/2026 06:09

Just SKorea as an example of global effect of Iran war as a reason for news cycle dominance.
As a non producing oil nation that relies on ME oil, it's particularly at risk during the current shortage. They've introduced new number plate rotation rules to limit drivers, limited public sector driving and gov't relief to lower income families. Also busy reopening nuclear reactors, sourcing new energy suppliers and promoting renewables. They are going to become even more dependent on the US if it becomes their major oil supplier.

The War is hitting Asia differently, not just energy supply but new security concerns too.

Yup. The rationing has been in place since almost the start. Also been protests against Marcos in the Philippines, and India has no cooking gas. Also South Korea, the US has pulled their THAAD and Patriot systems out. So the North done missile tests and is doing other cantankerous stuff.

The PRC meanwhile are saying " Hey Asia, we might be able to help you with fuel"

Trump has no clue. New world order indeed.

A reminder too. Helium. TW and SK need it for making their chips.

logicisall · 05/05/2026 06:28

The Maritime Freedom Construct is Trump's new world order. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the MFC a “critical first step in the establishment of a postconflict maritime security architecture for the Middle East.”

The Trump administration is calling on allied nations to join a new international coalition to help reopen and control the Strait of Hormuz, officials said.
The Maritime Freedom Construct (MFC) is meant to be a diplomatic and military push to work with allied countries and shipping companies to help reopen the vital waterway, and allow tanker ships to pass through without being molested by Iran.

The pitch for the MFC was sent out in an internal State Department cable to US embassies on Tuesday, urging diplomats to push for countries to sign on, the Wall Street Journal first reported.
“The MFC will take steps to ensure safe passage, including providing real-time information, safety guidance, and coordination to ensure vessels can transit these waters securely,” a State Department official told The Post.

Despite Trump’s previous insistence that the US does not need help reopening or managing the strait, the State Department memo suggests the administration is looking for foreign countries to manage the future of the waterway.
“Your participation will strengthen our collective ability to restore freedom of navigation and protect the global economy,” the cable read.
“Collective action is essential to demonstrate unified resolve and impose meaningful costs on Iranian obstruction of transit through the Strait.”
While the MFC is not meant to be a military coalition, the memo asks if foreign partners would like to serve as a “diplomatic and/or military partner.”

The State Department is setting up a team that “will serve as the diplomatic operations hub, uniting partners and the commercial shipping industry,” the official told the Post.
“It will provide a platform to coordinate diplomatic actions and socialize and align economic measures designed to impose costs on Iran for disrupting maritime security,” they added.
America’s direct involvement as the operations hub of the MFC appears to be a new move for Trump, who previously said the problems at the Strait of Hormuz were Europe’s to solve.

It remains unclear who the US has reached out to about joining the MFC, but the State Department memo claimed it would run complementary to the maritime task forces being set up by the UK and France.
London and Paris have led multiple European meetings to discuss the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but only once the war with Iran ends and clears the danger of ships trying to pass the waterway.
The pitch for the MFC comes as Trump touted the US blockade on Iranian ports, telling reporters on Wednesday that “the blockade is genius, OK, the blockade has been 100% foolproof.”
(NYP)

MFC is a 'pick me' choice after the UK/France led European coalition put Trump's nose out of joint.

An image collage containing 3 images, Image 1 shows A cargo ship in the Gulf near the Strait of Hormuz, Image 2 shows Aerial view of the Iranian shores and Qeshm island in the Strait of Hormuz, Image 3 shows An Iranian Shahed exploding drone launched b...

Trump asks allies for help with the Strait of Hormuz — and Europe is finally budging

France is pushing for an international mission to escort oil and gas tankers and the British government said military planners will meet next week.

https://nypost.com/2026/04/02/world-news/trump-asks-allies-for-help-on-the-strait-of-hormuz-and-europe-is-finally-budging/

RedTagAlan · 05/05/2026 06:41

logicisall · 04/05/2026 18:22

Oh dear, Sky News reporter was very blunt over whom to believe (neither atm) and that the US has been backed into a corner.

Trump to give news briefing tomorrow after saying that it's time for South Korea to step in. Bonkers! Wtf would SK gain from that?

Edited

10.5k Km from South Korea to the Gulf. 17 days sailing time.

South Koreas Yangyang class sweepers have a range of about 5500 km, so they will need to stop at a petrol station. Or they could be carried on a sealift. That appears to be the norm for sweepers, cos they are usually coastal craft.

I am sure Trump is a flat earther. He seems to look at a map and think.. that's only a few inches away. No wait.. map ?

logicisall · 05/05/2026 08:09

Project Freedom is now Project Deadlock (BBC)

I'm looking at the US war effort, $$$$ being spent and how little it's taking for Iran to declare that there is no military option to opening the Strait.

MushMonster · 05/05/2026 09:22

The Guardian has published that Iran and US are threatening each other, again....
Trump is said to have said or written (I am not sure) he will blow Iran off the face of the Earth. Or something to that tune...
Well, day by day they are getting closer and closer to blow themselves off the face of international relations....

Efacsen · 05/05/2026 09:34

@logicisall is Project Deadlock some kind of BBC witticism or is it true?

Certainly sounds apt

logicisall · 05/05/2026 09:45

Efacsen · 05/05/2026 09:34

@logicisall is Project Deadlock some kind of BBC witticism or is it true?

Certainly sounds apt

BBC wit.

logicisall · 05/05/2026 09:50

Looks like Pope Leo didn't fancy chancing the 'Vance touch', so he invited Rubio to the Vatican instead. What shoes will Rubio wear 🤔

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will meet Pope Leo XIV at the Vatican on Thursday in a one-on-one encounter that pointedly excludes Vice President JD Vance, marking a sharp break from the last time both men stood before the first American pope nearly a year ago.
Allies of Vance are privately accusing the Vatican of coordinating with American journalists to damage his 2028 presidential prospects, according to The Daily Beast.

MsJinks · 05/05/2026 10:17

RedTagAlan · 05/05/2026 06:41

10.5k Km from South Korea to the Gulf. 17 days sailing time.

South Koreas Yangyang class sweepers have a range of about 5500 km, so they will need to stop at a petrol station. Or they could be carried on a sealift. That appears to be the norm for sweepers, cos they are usually coastal craft.

I am sure Trump is a flat earther. He seems to look at a map and think.. that's only a few inches away. No wait.. map ?

He does like maps though - probably taken a sharpie to it to get Korea just that bit closer ha.

MsJinks · 05/05/2026 10:21

logicisall · 05/05/2026 09:50

Looks like Pope Leo didn't fancy chancing the 'Vance touch', so he invited Rubio to the Vatican instead. What shoes will Rubio wear 🤔

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will meet Pope Leo XIV at the Vatican on Thursday in a one-on-one encounter that pointedly excludes Vice President JD Vance, marking a sharp break from the last time both men stood before the first American pope nearly a year ago.
Allies of Vance are privately accusing the Vatican of coordinating with American journalists to damage his 2028 presidential prospects, according to The Daily Beast.

Can’t blame him lol. But I think it would be difficult for Leo, in his position as Pope, to discuss stuff with Vance - either religious, or war - I’d maybe wonder if he’d feel a bit duty bound to correct some of the instruction Vance seems to have received prior to confirmation in the Catholic Church.

As far as I know Rubio hasn’t said out loud that the Pope is just really bad at his job, and just doesn’t understand his church teaching, but not to worry he will correct that for him!

RedTagAlan · 05/05/2026 10:32

MsJinks · 05/05/2026 10:21

Can’t blame him lol. But I think it would be difficult for Leo, in his position as Pope, to discuss stuff with Vance - either religious, or war - I’d maybe wonder if he’d feel a bit duty bound to correct some of the instruction Vance seems to have received prior to confirmation in the Catholic Church.

As far as I know Rubio hasn’t said out loud that the Pope is just really bad at his job, and just doesn’t understand his church teaching, but not to worry he will correct that for him!

I don't see how it would be difficult for Leo to speak to any Christian, or theist. Maybe an atheist world leader might be a challenge.

MsJinks · 05/05/2026 10:34

Just caught LBC headlines - they gave the background to the SoH /current fire traded as ‘the US is trying to reopen the Strait for business’ I didn’t hear any ‘the Strait they caused to be shut in the first place’ - sigh.

MsJinks · 05/05/2026 10:36

RedTagAlan · 05/05/2026 10:32

I don't see how it would be difficult for Leo to speak to any Christian, or theist. Maybe an atheist world leader might be a challenge.

That’s one view yes - and I agree in a way for sure and further to include atheists - I just felt that in light of some of Vance’s contributions to the Pope’s education on the Catholic catechisms then perhaps it could be ‘awkward’?

JoshLymanSwagger · 05/05/2026 10:49

logicisall · 05/05/2026 09:50

Looks like Pope Leo didn't fancy chancing the 'Vance touch', so he invited Rubio to the Vatican instead. What shoes will Rubio wear 🤔

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will meet Pope Leo XIV at the Vatican on Thursday in a one-on-one encounter that pointedly excludes Vice President JD Vance, marking a sharp break from the last time both men stood before the first American pope nearly a year ago.
Allies of Vance are privately accusing the Vatican of coordinating with American journalists to damage his 2028 presidential prospects, according to The Daily Beast.

Pope Leo doesn't have a death wish!

RedTagAlan · 05/05/2026 10:50

MsJinks · 05/05/2026 10:36

That’s one view yes - and I agree in a way for sure and further to include atheists - I just felt that in light of some of Vance’s contributions to the Pope’s education on the Catholic catechisms then perhaps it could be ‘awkward’?

Do you mean in terms of splitting the Church ?

Rubio said this:

"Speaking at length about his faith during his 2016 run for president, Rubio said he is “fully, theologically, doctrinally aligned with the Roman Catholic Church.”"

Catholic Sen. Marco Rubio is Trump’s nominee for top Cabinet post – EWTN Great Britain

So yes, I agree Vance or Rubio could cause a breakaway of sorts. MAGA Catholics. But there are already over 50 k Christian denominations, so one more wont make much of a difference.

Christian Denomination Statistics - christian-witness.org

There is already MAGA Catholics. The Catholic League, led by Bill Donahue.

Catholic Sen. Marco Rubio is Trump’s nominee for top Cabinet post – EWTN Great Britain

https://ewtn.co.uk/article-catholic-sen-marco-rubio-is-trumps-nominee-for-top-cabinet-post/#:~:text=Speaking%20at%20length%20about%20his%20faith%20during%20his,theologically%2C%20doctrinally%20aligned%20with%20the%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church.%E2%80%9D

MsJinks · 05/05/2026 11:03

RedTagAlan · 05/05/2026 10:50

Do you mean in terms of splitting the Church ?

Rubio said this:

"Speaking at length about his faith during his 2016 run for president, Rubio said he is “fully, theologically, doctrinally aligned with the Roman Catholic Church.”"

Catholic Sen. Marco Rubio is Trump’s nominee for top Cabinet post – EWTN Great Britain

So yes, I agree Vance or Rubio could cause a breakaway of sorts. MAGA Catholics. But there are already over 50 k Christian denominations, so one more wont make much of a difference.

Christian Denomination Statistics - christian-witness.org

There is already MAGA Catholics. The Catholic League, led by Bill Donahue.

I think I’ve been confusing - sorry.

No just on a jokey level I was thinking it a tad awkward to meet one of your flock knowing his Catholic views don’t align and further have said you, the leader of the whole bloody Catholic Church, maybe don’t get it lol.

Sorry - more of a joke - and I didn’t know this stuff you’ve posted so that is really interesting- thank you. This thread is amazing for learning - and you’re one of the big teachers Alan - thank you.

RedTagAlan · 05/05/2026 11:21

MsJinks · 05/05/2026 11:03

I think I’ve been confusing - sorry.

No just on a jokey level I was thinking it a tad awkward to meet one of your flock knowing his Catholic views don’t align and further have said you, the leader of the whole bloody Catholic Church, maybe don’t get it lol.

Sorry - more of a joke - and I didn’t know this stuff you’ve posted so that is really interesting- thank you. This thread is amazing for learning - and you’re one of the big teachers Alan - thank you.

Ha ha sorry. I am on another thread just now, in a bit of a debate with a couple of Christians over what the Bible says. I was in "bible debate mode".

:-)

SerendipityJane · 05/05/2026 11:37

RedTagAlan · 05/05/2026 11:21

Ha ha sorry. I am on another thread just now, in a bit of a debate with a couple of Christians over what the Bible says. I was in "bible debate mode".

:-)

Which Bible ?

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