Well they have lost the soft Tory vote to the Lib Dems and or Labour.
Both candidates are very right wing. One of them should have been more moderate, but the Tory party now is very right wing. They have fixed nothing in their choice, and are chasing the Reform vote.
My guess is Jenrick will win. Badenoch is busy all the time telling people they are wrong; it’s a turn off. But given the average age and mentality of Tory member it may be a kind of bizarre comfort.