Ukraine Invasion: Part 47

[MagicFox]

Welcome to thread 47. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
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UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

🇫🇮Finland has announced its 22nd package of military aid to Ukraine worth almost €190 million. Additionally, a long-term plan to support Ukraine is being prepared, — Ministry of Defense of Finland in a press release.

A bipartisan delegation from the US Congress headed by the head of the Intelligence Committee, Mike Turner, has arrived in Kyiv. The group also includes French Hill, Jason Crow, Abigail Spanberger and Zach Nunn.

🇳🇴 Norway: The government proposes to the parliament the purchase of ten new launchers and four control points of NASAMS air defense systems for Ukraine, at a cost of NOK 3.45 billion ($250 million). This equipment is in addition to what has already been transferred to Ukraine as part of military aid.

🇱🇹 Lithuania: Handing Ukraine a new aid package consisting of winter uniforms and equipment, announced Defense Minister Arvydas Anušauskas.

India discusses with Russia the acquisition of oil production assets in Russia, — India's Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri in an interview with the propaganda agency TASS.
“There are Russian companies interested in expanding their participation in our refining operations. Indian companies are willing to acquire oil production assets in Russia,” Puri said on the sidelines of the India Energy Week 2024 international forum.

The Danish Defense Minister, Troels Lund Poulsen, warned that Russia could potentially attack NATO within three to five years.

The President of Ukraine met with representatives of the International Working Group on the Environmental Consequences of War.

Using open digital sources, international detectives conducted a search for eight Ukrainian children abducted by Russia. Approximately 60 detectives and investigators from 23 countries participated in the operation.

The night shelling of Kharkiv took the lives of the entire family. A man and his wife and three of their children died: seven-year-old, four-year-old and seven-month-old baby. A fuel leak caused a fire, after which a dangerous substance went down the street, on which there is a residential sector. The man's body was found in the corridor of the house, and the mother and children tried to escape in the bathroom. The baby's body has not yet been found.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Advisor to the Head of the Presidential Office Mykhailo Podolyak said that the country's leadership expects the newly appointed Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Syrskyi to "audit" the military, as only up to 300,000 of the 1 million mobilized have taken part in actual combat operations.
According to Podolyak, it is also necessary to clearly understand who and how will replace the soldiers who have been on the front line for almost 24 months.

Putin said that good Hitler begged Poland in 1939 to give up Gdansk peacefully, but the bad Poles refused and forced Hitler to start World War II
Yeah, that's not a joke, he said so.
Finally got to the point of openly justifying Hitler.

As of today, it is known that Finland has transferred mortars, ammunition, anti-tank grenade launchers, small arms, ammunition, and Leopard 2R demining tanks to Ukraine.

Russians are using Starlink at the front, according to Defence One
The first cases of using the terminals were recorded several months ago. So far, we are talking about dozens of devices on the front line. But there could be hundreds of them.
SpaceX said the company "does not do business with the Russian government or its military. Starlink does not operate in Russia. The company has never sold and will never sell equipment to Russia."
The terminals may enter Russia through third countries, just like microchips for Russian rockets.
At the same time, the quality of the Internet distributed by Starlink terminals in the Ukrainian army has plummeted.

Ragnar Gudmundsson

WAR IN #UKRAINE - FEB 10, 2024
■ Fewerstrikes but more engagements reported
■ Increased casualties; total expected to reach 400k in about seven days
■ Landbased equipment losses slightly below 7-day average; include 9 tanks
■ No missiles fired; 26 drones intercepted

From Chatham House: "A long war works against Ukraine – and the West’s own security"

www.chathamhouse.org/2024/02/long-war-works-against-ukraine-and-wests-own-security

Putin said that good Hitler begged Poland in 1939 to give up Gdansk peacefully, but the bad Poles refused and forced Hitler to start World War II
Yeah, that's not a joke, he said so.
Finally got to the point of openly justifying Hitler.

Oh. I thought WWII was entirely the fault of the British for not folding immediately and insisting on going on fighting against Hitler. That was a previous version. Sort of "if they'd had the sense to know they were beaten, like the French, than none of the rest of it would have been necessary" stuff.

Come to think of it, that narrative might be a little too close to the current war: the Ukrainians failed to realise they were defeated before they even began, and thereby forced Putin's troops to behave as they did. If the country had rolled over and surrendered at once, all those civilians wouldn't have had to be raped and tortured, would they.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-9-2024

Key Takeaways:

• The Russian online community noted that Russian President Vladimir Putin did not offer any new information in his interview with American media personality Tucker Carlson and simply repeated longstanding Kremlin talking points about Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine for American audiences.
• Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev noted that Putin told the Western world in the most thorough and detailed way why Ukraine did not exist, does not exist, and will not exist.
• Delays in Western aid appear to be exacerbating Ukraine’s current artillery shortages and could impact Ukraine’s long-term war effort.
• Newly appointed Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi identified several of his goals as commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
• Ukrainian actors reportedly conducted a successful drone strike against two oil refineries in Krasnodar Krai on February 9.
• Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces are increasing their use of illegal chemical weapons in Ukraine, in an apparent violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), to which Russia is a signatory.
• Bloomberg reported on February 9 that Ukraine is considering economic reforms in order to secure funding from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the event that the US Congress continues to block crucial aid.
• Russian forces advanced near Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka amid continued positional engagements along the frontline.
• Russian paramilitary organization Novorossiya Aid Coordination Center (KCPN) is training drone operators in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast near Krynky.
• Russian occupation authorities continue to prepare for the upcoming Russian presidential elections by creating the appearance of popular support for Russian Vladimir Putin in occupied areas of Ukraine.

Good analysis of the war with a very sad conclusion. If West is not prepared to stand for its values then their values are worthless.

Mark Galeotti on the interview:

wtf

"Donald Trump says he would encourage Russia to attack Nato allies who pay too little"

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/11/donald-trump-says-he-would-encourage-russia-to-attack-nato-countries-who-dont-pay-bills

I was just reading it, it's appalling that only 7 countries out of 31 in NATO spend 2% of their budget on defense. Look at Russia and it's currently at 38%.

It's more than 7

https://www.nato.int/natostaticc_fl2014/assets/pdf/2023/7/pdf/230707-def-exp-2023-en.pdf

• Poland (3.9%)
• United States (3.49%)
• Greece (3.01%)
• Estonia (2.73%)
• Lithuania (2.54%)
• Finland (2.45%)
• Romania (2.44%)
• Hungary (2.43%)
• Latvia (2.27%)
• United Kingdom (2.07%)
• Slovak Republic (2.03%)

Also, the press has been awash with NATO members declaring that they will up their spending, that they recognise the US's irritation. Other NATO members aid to ukraine exceeds the US. There's not excuse for him saying what he's said: he has actively incited Putin to attack a NATO member. This is abominable and dangerous madness!

Trump; "“One of the presidents of a big country stood up and said, ‘Well, sir, if we don’t pay, and we’re attacked by Russia, will you protect us?’” Trump said, adding “I said, ‘You didn’t pay, you’re delinquent?’”
“No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You got to pay. You got to pay your bills.”

Reported on the BBC: www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68266447

It's so so dangerous when it comes from American president. Just the hint that he will not honor article 5 means that the whole nato organization is worthless.

Article 5 provides that if a NATO Ally is the victim of an armed attack, each and every other member of the Alliance will consider this act of violence as an armed attack against all members and will take the actions it deems necessary to assist the Ally attacked.

@edwardhunterchristie

Trump has said this multiple times now, though this version is expressed in a more callous way.

Then again, all of our Eastern Flank allies are "fully paid up" (at or above 2% of GDP on defence) and some are far above what's been agreed (Poland most of all). Hence, some colleagues may feel this position is manageable.

If the Eastern Flank are defended, all of Europe is defended as far as land attacks are concerned.
And in case of a Russian air campaign against both Poland and Germany, it seems hard to imagine the U.S. seeking to help Poland to defend against it but not Germany.

The real problem is whether Trump is looking to stabilise onto a rebalanced relationship, but one where we remain trusted allies nonetheless, or whether this is directional, i.e., part of a steady and deliberate erosion of our relationship, with rupture as the final destination.

It's like his agitation on Ukraine. He claims he can solve it in one day, but in practice he seems to want to yank Ukraine down to its knees by denying it vital arms and ammunition.
That's what he's doing right now through the House Republicans.
Goalposts are regularly shifted, always towards helping Ukraine less. And right now, there's no new assistance at all.

As for NATO, one day Trump can say he won't protect unless the country spends the 2% (the commitment we all signed up to).

Then he can say 2% is not enough, it should be 3%.

Then he can pretend the spending isn't happening by using figures that are out of date.

He already lied publicly about burden sharing in the help to Ukraine: he claimed the US was spending 10 times more than Europe. The reality to date: US is spending less than Europe. So, a distortion by a factor greater than 10.

In sum, it would be more reasonable to assume that Trump is preparing the ground for abandoning Europe and for striking deals with Russia over our heads.

That list is interesting.

Have to say though the problem with using percentage as a GDP as a metric is it doesn’t indicate how well/efficiently the money is spent.

Always been a rumour that in at least one country far too much of the defence budget ends up lining the pockets of shareholders and the top managers of certain companies and not enough actually ends up contributing to the front line materiel.

Quoting from Malcolm Davies on Twitter. This is what's ultimately at stake isn't it? We're talking about a potential large European war if the US withdraws and Russia continues on its imperialist path. In 8-10 years Russia will have another huge cohort of military aged men. I know this is the worst case scenario but honestly, it should never even be a scenario at all. The world is upside down.

@ dr m_davies

"it would be more reasonable to assume that Trump is preparing the ground for abandoning Europe and for striking deals with Russia over our heads."

Agree - the writing is very clearly on the wall with #Trump and the #Russians and #NATO. Once elected, one way or another, he intends to effectively withdraw the US from NATO or at the very least, fail to honor Article 5 Treaty obligations.

And now, he's encouraging Putin to go further than #Ukraine.

I think we should take Trump at his word. Such an act by a US President would be a betrayal of western security and a deliberate act of assistance to an adversary of western democracy leading to devastating war in Europe.

another excellent podcast from Mark Galeotti (who I now think I might be mildly in love with….) on Ukraine the Latest about fundamentally understanding Russia.

Yes I listened yesterday, he's unfailingly good

His optimism at the end about upcoming Russian generations was cheering and I hope he's right!

Sooo this ex-President who has defaulted, lied and deceived financially and effectively stolen a lot of money ... is now encouraging enemies to attack the US's allies because they haven't paid their bills.

I really do think we need to be careful about listening to and worrying too much about the ramblings of a known liar and narcissist.

As MG conveyed so eloquently in the Ukraine the Latest podcast the mundane doesn’t make headlines and if there is one thing Trump wants more than anything it’s a headline.

There's no bill to pay anyway, it's a suggested contribution to a collective defence alliance with countries of varying sizes involved. He's being completely disingenuous in how he puts it. He's also made out before that the US has sent 10 x more money to ukraine when in fact European contributions are much more than the US. Argh!

Actually I think that we do need to listen to the ramblings of this liar and narcissist because a fool in charge of the White House is as dangerous as a knave. His decision making already weakened the US's influence significantly (eg consider the withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2017/03/strategic-consequences-of-us-withdrawal-from-tpp.html )

When you look at his track record he is profoundly destructive both for the US's interests and the West generally. Under his malign influence the Republicans have stopped further aid (hopefully temporarily) to Ukraine and this has cost unknown numbers of deaths and been a significant influence in Russia's gains around Avdiivka.

The one point he has is that NATO members should indeed pay their bills (hard to ignore the irony of him saying it, but he's right).

But he kow-tows to Putin, and Putin can play him like a fiddle. It seems realistically possible that he can get into the White House again, and that is extremely worrying.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Trump says he would urge Russia to ‘do whatever the hell they want https://kyivindependent.com/trump-says-he-would-urge-russia-to-do-whatever-the-hell-they-want-to-nato-countries-that-fail-to-meet-their-financial-obligations/ to NATO countries that fail to meet financial obligations.

Fate of Avdiivka uncertain as Ukrainian forces defending it struggle with fortifications, resources
https://kyivindependent.com/avdiivka-defense-uncertain-as-ukraine-struggles-with-fortification/
While Russia continued to strengthen its defense lines even as it launched an offensive on multiple axes over the winter, Ukraine appears to have done little to prepare for a long attritional battle during its summer counteroffensive.
Many Ukrainian soldiers said they expected Avdiivka to suffer a similar fate to Bakhmut.

⚡️Stoltenberg: West must be prepared https://kyivindependent.com/stoltenberg-west-must-be-prepared-for-decades-long-confrontation-with-russia/ for 'decades-long confrontation' with Russia.
The West does not seek war with Russia, but should still "prepare ourselves for a confrontation that could last decades," NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told the German newspaper Welt Am Sonntag in an interview published on Feb. 10.

⚡️Top German https://kyivindependent.com/top-german-general-we-must-be-ready-for-war-with-russia-in-5-years/ General Carsten Breuer: 'We must be ready for war (with Russia) in 5 years.’

⚡️Media: Russian military increasingly using (https://kyivindependent.com/media-russian-military-actively-using-starlink-terminals-on-battlefield/ Starlink terminals on battlefield.
According to Militarnyi, the Starlink terminals are likely being procured through intermediaries in third countries via parallel imports, making it near impossible to trace.

Ukraine's allies are considering a change of plan to the format of the Ramstein summits which would see NATO coordinating military aid instead of the U.S., German media outlet Handelsblatt reported on Feb. 9, citing sources. https://kyivindependent.com/media-allies-contemplate-changes-to-ramstein-format/
One of the alleged reasons behind this consideration is the possibility of Donald Trump's return to the White House, according to Handelsblatt.

⚡️Zelensky announces https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-announces-more-changes-to-military-leadership/ more changes to military leadership.

Zelensky announced four high-level military appointments on his website on Feb. 11, including the commanders of the Ground Forces, Territorial Defense Forces, the Combined Forces, and the Airborne Assault Forces. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-appoints-new-combined-forces-airborne-territorial-defense-commanders/

⚡️Romania scrambles https://kyivindependent.com/romania-scrambles-f-16s-amid-russian-drone-strikes-on-odesa-oblast/ F-16s amid Russian drone strikes on Odesa Oblast.

⚡️Movement of trucks at checkpoint on Polish border resumed https://kyivindependent.com/border-service-blockade-ends-at-medyka-shehyni-crossing/ after blockade by farmers.

⚡️VOA: F-16s are ‘exceeding expectations https://kyivindependent.com/f-16s-are-exceeding-expectations-of-ukraines-pilots/ of Ukraine's pilots.

⚡️Poll: 26% of Ukrainian teenagers want to move abroad https://kyivindependent.com/poll-26-of-ukrainian-move-abroad/ after finishing school.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
· 1h
ragnarbjartur.bsky.social
⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - FEB 11, 2024
■ 🇷🇺 strikes above 7-day average, 🇺🇦 forced to save ammo
■ Casualties continue to increase; 400k milestone expected on Feb 17
■ Modest landbased equipment losses; double-digit tank losses however