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Ukraine Invasion: Part 47

989 replies

MagicFox · 25/01/2024 13:25

Welcome to thread 47. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

OP posts:
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221
MissConductUS · 08/02/2024 18:20

I do hope this doesn’t end up proving to be a spectacular own goal by Zelensky.

When politicians do this, it reminds me of aircraft passengers trying to seize the controls from the pilot during an inflight emergency.

It rarely works out well.

MagicFox · 08/02/2024 20:02

Aid passed

Ukraine Invasion: Part 47
OP posts:
MagicFox · 08/02/2024 20:04

Oh hang on, I got to excited. Not yet but a good step

OP posts:
PerkingFaintly · 08/02/2024 20:05

Arrgghhhh! I got halfway into a whoop of relief...

Shall hold my breath till I can finish it... Grin

Igotjelly · 08/02/2024 20:07

MagicFox · 08/02/2024 20:02

Aid passed

Thank fuck!

Igotjelly · 08/02/2024 20:09

Although I wouldn’t whoop too much, didn’t the Leader of the House say the Bill was dead on arrival….

MissConductUS · 08/02/2024 20:13

Igotjelly · 08/02/2024 20:07

Thank fuck!

It passed in the Senate. It still has to pass in the House, which will be a steeper climb.

It's still very good news, of course. More here from the WSJ.

Ukraine-Israel Aid Package Clears Major Hurdle in Senate

MissConductUS · 08/02/2024 20:15

Igotjelly · 08/02/2024 20:09

Although I wouldn’t whoop too much, didn’t the Leader of the House say the Bill was dead on arrival….

Edited

I believe that was in reference to the earlier bill that included the border security changes. This is from the article I linked above.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R., La.) has tried to keep his options open, declining on Wednesday to say whether he would bring a Senate-passed national-security package onto the floor. While Johnson has said that defending Ukraine is important, he faces opposition from the same forces that are challenging McConnell.

blueshoes · 08/02/2024 22:15

Although this is a first and very encouraging step and there is still a mountain to climb, I am going to allow myself to bask in the glow of happiness for just a little.

Natsku · 09/02/2024 05:00

My bloke is watching the Tucker Carlson interview now and its just so ridiculous, so much bullshit, but its cracking me up every time I look over and Tucker Carlson's is absolutely still, frozen, his face not moving at all for ages while Putin blathers on.

Igotjelly · 09/02/2024 06:50

I’m not sure I can bring myself to watch the whole thing. I’ve seen a few bits and it just makes you want to be sick in your mouth 🤢 Putin sitting smirking away in that way he does and Carlson just lapping it up.

Natsku · 09/02/2024 07:35

He watched the whole thing and then complained that it was two hours of his life he's never getting back. Two hours of him muttering well that's bullshit, that's not right, no they aren't etc.

Mb76 · 09/02/2024 10:39

Two hours??? I’m never going to watch it. I’d end up throwing my tv out of the window.

DancesWithDucks · 09/02/2024 10:59

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️NYT: American officials confirm https://kyivindependent.com/nyt-american-officials-confirm-patriot-missile-shot-down-russian-il-76-plane/ Patriot missile shot down Il-76 plane.
The American-made Patriot missile system is likely responsible for the Russian Il-76 plane crash, American officials anonymously told The New York Times. The plane was also likely carrying at least some Ukrainian prisoners, officials reported.

The U.S. Senate voted to proceed with a stripped-down foreign aid package that includes funds for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan without reforms to border policy, potentially paving the way for passage after Republicans blocked a bipartisan border security and foreign aid bill. https://kyivindependent.com/draft-senate-passes-fails-to-pass-ukraine-israel-aid/

Who is General Syrskyi https://kyivindependent.com/syrskyi-appointment/, Ukraine's new chief commander?
General Oleksandr Syrskyi had previously served as the commander of Ukraine's Ground Forces and the Khortytsia Operational and Strategic Group fighting in the country's east.

⚡️ Scholz meets with US senators https://kyivindependent.com/scholz-meets-with-us-senators-in-washington-ahead-of-talks-with-biden/ in Washington ahead of talks with Biden.

Short-lived rise of Boris Nadezhdin, Putin's 'anti-war' opponent https://kyivindependent.com/kremlin-bans-unlikely-anti-war-challenger-from-running-against-putin-in-upcoming-elections/
On Feb. 8, Russia's Central Election Commission refused to accept Nadezhdin’s citizen signatures and register him as a presidential candidate. [seems he was more popular than they expected]

⚡️ Italy approves 1-year extension https://kyivindependent.com/italy-approves/ of military aid for Ukraine.

⚡️Ukraine, Denmark start https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-denmark-start-negotiations-on-security-guarantee-agreement/ negotiations on security guarantee agreement.

⚡️Putin's visit https://kyivindependent.com/putins-visit-to-turkey-reportedly-postponed/ to Turkey reportedly postponed.

⚡️Bloomberg: New EU sanctions package expected to target https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-new-eu-sanctions-package-expected-to-target-russian-arms-and-technology/ individuals and firms involved in the production of Russian weapons and key technologies used by Russian defense companies to create weapons, Bloomberg reported on Feb. 8.

⚡️Fire reported at oil refinery https://kyivindependent.com/fire-reported-at-oil-refinery-in-russias-krasnodar-krai/ in Russia's Krasnodar Krai.

Lawmakers from Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico's coalition government voted on Feb. 8 to eliminate the office of the special prosecutor, tasked with investigating major crimes and corruption. https://kyivindependent.com/ficos-coalition-government-votes-to-eliminate-office-of-anti-corruption-prosecutor/

⚡️ Polish farmers to partially block https://kyivindependent.com/polish-farmers-to-block-crossing-on-ukrainian-border-again/ Zosin-Ustyluh crossing on Ukrainian border.

⚡️Ukraine returns https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-returns-100-pows-from-russian-captivity/ 100 POWs from Russian captivity.
According to Russia's Defense Ministry, Moscow also received 100 soldiers back.

⚡️ Russian billionaire Anisimov renounces citizenship. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-billionaire-renounces-citizenship/
Anisimov is a former partner of sanctioned tycoon Alisher Usmanov and the founder of Trustconsult and Coalco International. Forbes estimates his fortune at $1.6 billion.

⚡️US announces ban https://kyivindependent.com/us-announces-ban-on-import-of-russian-diamonds/ on import of Russian diamonds.

The U.S.-based refractory manufacturing company Allied Mineral Products, LLC, has been added to Ukraine's list of "international sponsors of war" for its continued business in Russia, the National Agency on Corruption Prevention (NACP) announced on Feb. 8. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-designates-us-based-manufacturer-as-international-sponsor-of-war/

⚡️ First ship with humanitarian wheat shipment in 2024 leaves Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/first-ship-with-humanitarian-wheat-in-2024-leaves-ukraine/ The Sky Gate bulk carrier is shipping 25,000 metric tons of wheat to Nigeria.

⚡️ National Resistance Center: Russia builds militaristic youth camps https://kyivindependent.com/national-resistance-center-russia-builds-militaristic-youth-camps-in-occupied-in-zaporizhzhia-oblast/ in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

⚡️ Court confiscates assets https://kyivindependent.com/court-confiscates-assets-of-russian-greek-oligarch/ of Russian-Greek oligarch Ivan Savvidi.

⚡️Tucker Carlson releases interview with Putin.
Controversial far-right commentator and former Fox News host Tucker Carlson released his interview with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Feb. 8.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - FEB 9, 2024
■ Fewer engagements but 🇷🇺 air & artillery activity stays high
■ Casualties & equipment losses both above 7-day average
■ 47 officer deaths confirmed by KIU with average deaths per day in the last four batches rising to 5.6

Short-lived rise of Boris Nadezhdin, Putin's 'anti-war' opponent

Russian elections are usually predictable and dull affairs. The outcome is known beforehand since the Kremlin handpicks all the candidates, has total control over the media and also rigs the votes. Despite this, there has been an unexpected flurry of...

https://kyivindependent.com/kremlin-bans-unlikely-anti-war-challenger-from-running-against-putin-in-upcoming-elections

DancesWithDucks · 09/02/2024 11:17

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Zelenskyy has also announced that a new leadership team is taking over the Armed Forces yesterday.
"I spoke with Brigadier Generals Andriy Hnatov, Mykhailo Drapaty, Ihor Skybyuk and Colonels Pavlo Palisa and Vadym Sukharevskyi. All of them are being considered for leadership positions in the army and will serve under the leadership of the most experienced Ukrainian commander," the President said.

EU urges member governments to stop illegal flow of goods to Russia — Politico.
In a letter sent to capitals on Wednesday, and seen by POLITICO, the European Commission warned countries there was a need for “immediate, concerted, and firm action by all of us.”

🇺🇦🇩🇰Ukraine has started detailed negotiations with Denmark on security guarantees.

❗️Ukrainian soldiers have downed a Russian Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopter from a portable anti-aircraft system. It crashed with the crew in the Avdiivka direction.

Several Russian companies involved in arms imports from North Korea will be subject to new EU sanctions, which are being prepared for the second anniversary of the full-scale war — EUObserver.

Attacks by Russian hackers on Ukrainian civilian objects should be recognized as a war crime — Security Service of Ukraine
He also said that during the full-scale war, the Security Service of Ukraine not only repelled almost 10,000 cyber attacks, but also actively collects intelligence. It is used during the preparation of top special operations of the service and handed over to the Defense Forces. And if it is information about Russia's circumvention of sanctions, it is provided to international partners.

🇪🇨🇺🇸🇺🇦 Ecuador plans to transfer its old Russian military equipment to the USA for further shipment to Ukraine. We are talking about helicopters, anti-aircraft guns and anti-aircraft systems of the 1990s. For this, the country wants to receive modern American weapons. [Already announced, and Russia banned Ecuadorean bananas in response]

Two reputable global magazines devoted their covers to the technologies that help Ukrainians get closer to victory.
The American magazine Time wrote about how tech giants have turned Ukraine into a military artificial intelligence laboratory.
Ukraine has already become the best testing ground for all the latest technologies, cooperating with companies such as Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Starlink. The British magazine The Economist published an article "How cheap drones are transforming warfare in Ukraine".

Russians shelled Selydove in Donetsk region with 8 missiles at night, one of them hit an apartment building.

We want to thank Valerii Zaluzhnyi for his amazing work on the post of Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 47
Ukraine Invasion: Part 47
Igotjelly · 09/02/2024 11:20

I did quite enjoy the fact that Putin promised 30 secs on Russian history and then went on for 35 mins 😂😂 Carlson’s face was a picture!

DancesWithDucks · 09/02/2024 11:26

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

These are the tasks Zelensky set for Syrskyi and the renewed leadership of the Armed Forces:

▪️to present a realistic, detailed plan for 2024;

▪️arm every combat brigade on the first line with Western weapons;

▪️solve the problem of logistics, especially with drones and for Avdiivka;

▪️every general should know the frontline;

▪️build an effective system of rotations in the army;

▪️improve the quality of training for soldiers;

▪️correct the excessive number of staff in the headquarters;

▪️the first commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces should be appointed.

The new commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, is to present his team in the coming days.

In the Perm region of Russia, an explosion occurred on a gas pipeline near a railroad. A freight train is on fire, and the fire has also spread to a residential building

On the eve of his visit to the United States, German Chancellor Scholz published an op-ed in the WSJ in which he warned against a Russian victory in Ukraine and called for continued support for Kyiv.

If you haven't watched our old video about Zaluzhnyi, then welcome

Who is Valerii Zaluzhnyi? The "Iron General" of Ukraine. A hero who remains in the shadows.

🔵 Support us on Patreon!https://www.patreon.com/liveukraine_media🔵 Find us on PayPal: [email protected]🔵 send a donation to the card via the link:...

https://youtu.be/OBiodVawOoU?si=wDNcL2n-KpC4zaOf

Fox111 · 09/02/2024 11:43

Igotjelly · 08/02/2024 20:09

Although I wouldn’t whoop too much, didn’t the Leader of the House say the Bill was dead on arrival….

Edited

It's just embarrassing watching all this sh...show in Washington. As Tusk said Reagan would turn in his grave if he seen this.

GDP of US and EU is 23 time bigger than Russian and these morons can't give enough even to hold the Avdiivka.

MagicFox · 09/02/2024 11:45

I have a constant butterfly in my stomach about what's happening in/to the US

OP posts:
DancesWithDucks · 09/02/2024 12:32

me too. Think I'm accepting that the influence of the US is diminishing, which is a real shame. It's flawed, but it's still streets ahead of Russia and China.

What grates extensively is the broken promises - Budapest Memorandum, the promises made when Russia first invaded.

It's partly an emotional reaction. Growing up there was respect and faith in the US, the sense that they stood for the empowerment of people - each person had a voice, through the vote. That they would stand, as far as possible, for good values. That was perhaps a childish naïvety. The fact that Trump got elected broke quite a bit of that faith. That he then created an insurrection fit for the 3rd world and the US seem to be on course to elect him again, and the broken promises to Ukraine ... well, it's time to grow up again and accept loosing more faith and that promises are rarely kept.

blueshoes · 09/02/2024 13:13

I miss the days when politicians in US and UK could be counted on to be grown ups and when the electorate expected those qualities in their leaders.

blueshoes · 09/02/2024 13:18

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-8-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin attempted to use an interview with American media personality Tucker Carlson published on February 8 to present to a wider Western audience a long-standing Kremlin information operation that falsely asserts that Russia is interested in a negotiated end to its war in Ukraine. Putin illustrated throughout the interview that Russia has no interest in meaningful or legitimate negotiations, however, and that Putin still seeks to destroy Ukraine as a state. Putin also displayed his overarching hostility towards the West and falsely accused the West of forcing Russia to attack Ukraine.
  • Putin also attempted to use the interview to absurdly reframe Russia as the wronged party and not the initiator of Russia’s unprovoked war of conquest against Ukraine.
  • Putin continued attempts to justify Russia’s invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022 as responses to Ukraine’s and the West’s actions in order to defend his long-standing calls for regime change in Kyiv and Ukraine’s “demilitarization” “denazification,” and “neutrality.”
  • Putin continued to propagate pseudo-history in an effort to deny Ukrainian statehood and nationhood.
  • Putin also reiterated a quasi-realist world view that defines weakening the West and dismantling NATO as pre-requisites for the Russian-led multipolar world he desires to create.
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky replaced General Valerii Zaluzhnyi with Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi as Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief on February 8, as part of wider military leadership changes. Such changes are normal for states engaged in a protracted war.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a routine phone call on February 8 that underscored China’s hesitance to support Russia’s desired bilateral Russo-Sino relationship while Russia forges deeper partnerships with Iran and North Korea.
  • Ukrainian and Russian forces conducted a one-to-one prisoner of war (POW) exchange on February 8.
  • The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that it recently conducted a cyberattack against the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) preventing Russian forces from automatically operating an unspecified number of likely first-person view (FPV) drones.
  • The Russian Central Election Committee (CEC) refused to register Boris Nadezhdin, the only anti-war Russian presidential candidate, for the March 2024 presidential election likely due to his larger-than-anticipated popularity.
  • Some Russian and Ukrainian sources claimed that Russian forces are using Starlink in occupied Ukraine. [what?]
  • Ukrainian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna and Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City amid continued positional fighting along the entire line of contact on February 8.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) proposed a draft bill on February 8 to establish a single maximum age for contract service personnel (kontraktniki) during a period of partial mobilization, martial law, or wartime.
  • Russian authorities are likely setting conditions to falsify voting results in occupied Ukraine in the March 2024 presidential election.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 47
notimagain · 09/02/2024 13:24

@blueshoes

Some Russian and Ukrainian sources claimed that Russian forces are using Starlink in occupied Ukraine. [what?]

Report here, talk elsewhere is it may have been organised via third parties in perhaps Cyprus so Musk and the company may not have been aware.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-starlink-ukraine-war-elon-musk-1868125

Elon Musk

Russia deploying Starlink in Ukraine—reports

Volunteer troops are using the satellite communications network, operated by Elon Musk's SpaceX, in four illegally annexed regions of the country.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-starlink-ukraine-war-elon-musk-1868125

blueshoes · 09/02/2024 13:53

@notimagain oh I see. It appears that if Starlink activates their satellites to cover a specific area (i.e. the four annexed regions and in Crimea), anyone with the starlink kit can use them in that area for comms. The kit is agnostic as to who operates it, including Russians.

I suppose Starlink would not sell directly to Russia (you'd hope). Therefore the question is whether sanctions apply to stop third party intermediaries from supplying Russia with the kit.

It sounds quite complicated to police.

DancesWithDucks · 10/02/2024 10:26

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

Ukraine is facing a "critical shortage" of military hardware, including missiles, urging U.S. lawmakers to support a $60 billion aid package for Ukraine, Ukraine's Ambassador to the United States Oksana Markarova said in an interview with Bloomberg published on Feb. 8. https://kyivindependent.com/ambassador-ukraine-is-facing-critical-shortage-of-missiles-military-hardware/

⚡️Ukraine funding bill moves https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-funding-bill-moves-closer-to-passage/ closer to passage.
The U.S. Senate voted Friday evening local time to move the $95 billion aid package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan closer to being passed in the upper chamber despite Republican objections. Votes were split 64-19 with only 14 Republicans voting in favor.

A delegation of representatives from Estonia, Iceland, Sweden, Denmark, Latvia, and Lithuania visited the U.S. Congress on Feb. 8 to advocate for a continued American commitment to Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/nordic-baltic-delegation-visits-us-congress-in-bid-to-shore-up-support-for-ukraine/

⚡️ Finland approves https://kyivindependent.com/finland-sends-military-aid-package-for-ukraine-worth-over-200-million/ military aid package for Ukraine worth over $200 million.

⚡️ Norway plans to deliver https://kyivindependent.com/norway-plans-to-deliver-additional-air-defense-to-ukraine/ additional NASAMS air defenses to Ukraine.

Media: Russia imports https://kyivindependent.com/media-russia-imports-italian-beretta-rifles-despite-sanctions/ Italian Beretta rifles despite sanctions.

Pentagon spokesperson General Pat Ryder hinted on Feb. 9 that air defense missiles and other capabilities are still flowing to Ukraine under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI). https://kyivindependent.com/pentagon-spox-hints-us-air-defense-missiles-continue-to-flow-to-ukraine/
When asked by a reporter whether the U.S. continues providing air defenses to Ukraine under the USAI, Ryder said he cannot provide a number but said that "there are certain capabilities that were contracted under USAI, which does include some air defense capabilities.

Zelensky has named Major General Anatoliy Barhilevych as the new Chief of General Staff for Ukraine's Armed Forces, announced during his evening address on Feb. 9. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-replaces-chief-of-general-staff/

⚡️ Armenia, Armenian community in Ukraine deliver https://kyivindependent.com/armenia-armenian-community-in-ukraine-deliver-10-tons-of-medical-equipment-to-ukrainian-military-hospital/ 10 tons of medical equipment to Ukrainian military hospital.

⚡️ Update: Polish farmers launch blockade at 3 crossings https://kyivindependent.com/polish-farmers-launch-blockade-at-three-crossings-on-ukraine-border/ on Ukraine border.

Association head warns of closure https://kyivindependent.com/association-head-warns-of-closure-of-ukrainian-sugar-factories-due-to-eu-import-curbs/ of Ukrainian sugar factories due to EU import curbs.
Possible restrictions on Ukrainian sugar exports to the EU may lead to the closure of sugar factories, said the acting chair of the board of the National Association of Sugar Producers of Ukraine, Nazar Mykhailovyn, as reported by the Interfax-Ukraine news agency on Feb. 7.

⚡️Law enforcement charges https://kyivindependent.com/charges-laid-against-former-sbu-official-accused-of-abducting-torturing-residents-in-melitopol/ former SBU official with abduction, torture of residents in Melitopol.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 47

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