Ukraine Invasion: Part 47

[MagicFox]

Welcome to thread 47. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

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Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

The question here is why is he pushing for this? It's not a matter of fairness - he doesn't know the meaning of the word.

What's behind his complaints?

All I can think is that he simply wants the US to withdraw from NATO. (any other reasons would be gladly read, if they are more positive!)

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The New York Times reports the US's skepticism regarding Putin's call for talks with Ukraine. According to the publication, the Kremlin leader is not inclined to negotiate until at least November, seemingly hopeful for a return of Trump to power, which could offer more favorable terms.

Stocks of shells for Ukrainian air defense will only last until March of this year.
According to The New York Times, although the Armed Forces of Ukraine have a new commander-in-chief, the problems remain the same. General Syrskyi, having taken office, may soon again be faced with the grim calculations that have accompanied the war for two years: “when the cost of defending territory outweighs any benefit obtained from harming the enemy.”
According to the newspaper, Ukrainian troops are exhausted, they lack weapons and ammunition, and air defense systems are depleted, while US assistance is still in question.
Western officials and military experts warn that without American help, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will face a “rapid collapse” on the front line this year, writes the NYT.

Hungarian President Katalin Novák has resigned, — EuroNews.
The reason was mass protests calling for the politician to "resign" after it became known that she pardoned a person convicted of covering up a case of sexual abuse of children in an orphanage.

A US withdrawal from NATO will lead to wider war in Europe and the collapse of US strategic influence in Europe

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇮🇪 The Irish government does not allow https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2024/02/10/government-refuses-to-issue-new-visas-to-russian-diplomats-amid-espionage-concerns/ the Russian embassy in Dublin to rotate its staff, refusing to issue them visas. Diplomats are suspected of espionage.

🇫🇷France will produce and transfer dozens of Caesar self-propelled howitzer and shells to Ukraine as part of the Artillery Coalition, Zelensky said.
Most likely, this refers to the 78 self-propelled howitzers announced in January.

Ukrainian serviceman Volodymyr Tsema-Bursov lost 38 kilograms in 20 months in Russian captivity

distressing

As a result of the attack in Kharkiv, Olga Putyatina, a prosecutor of the Vovchansk department of the Chuhuiv district prosecutor's office, her husband and their three sons were killed
It is impossible to identify the body of an infant at the scene of the fire in Kharkiv, – the head of the regional police investigation department.
[The mother, at least one child and the baby hid in the toilet as they could not get out of the building. One child ran after his dad and they both died in the hallway]

I think you are right Ducks, Trump wants the US out of NATO as he is simply not interested. It doesn’t serve HIS purpose and that’s the problem.

I think so too, unless Europe can unite. I think this is why so many top military and other leadership are trying to get the politicians to unite for preparations, which would make war less likely.

Sincerely hope that Trump -cannot- withdraw from NATO for one reason or another. But at this moment, if you observe how he's hollowed out the Republican party, how he has huge US political support, his admiration for Putin (stated more than once), his actions in weakening the US's influence and internal integrity and his statements on NATO ... ... I hope that the picture I'm seeing is wrong, I really really do. I hope there are things I'm missing, or that the jigsaw I'm making from the pieces is painted too black. (I hope he gets convicted before the election, which would make a difference). But he has no respect for the underlying ties that keep societies and communities functioning, and does not care one jot for the consequences to others of the dissolution of those administrative, financial, military and societal ties.

Those documents at Margo-el-Lar keep coming back to mind too. Top secret documents in a garage while hundreds of people partied within meters.

Oh I absolutely believe The Former Guy would take the US out of NATO if he could, and would be more than happy to see Russia invade say Germany.

Looking at what TFG does, rather than just what he says, we've long seen that Putin has him wrapped round his little finger.

Vlad is exceptionally skilled at twitching anyone's marionette strings, and a narcissist is always an easy target.

I am not convinced in Trumps intent in tanking US out of NATO. He is right to Europe should spend a hell of a lot more on defense. I would go further and say that some kind of pan European defense force is needed. Europe fell asleep for 40 years and is now waking up to a painful reality that there is an enemy in the east. All this rosy ideas of "end of history" and that liberal democracy has won the Cold War can now be put to the bin.

All those things can be true, and TFG still genuinely intend to sit back and watch Putin do whatever he likes.

Of course only up to the moment TFG gets another daddy who tells him he can get better ratings by acting the hero who resisted that scummy evil Putin, never even met the guy...

<cough Boris Johnson cough>

I think my thing with the giant ugly pumpkin is that there is so much bad shit in the World to be worrying about without me worrying about a ‘what if’. Nothing I do will change the outcome and people much smarter than I will be working through the implications etc.

Europe may not be the US but I honestly think we have it in us, with some work, to be a real force for the positive!

Oh yes, I agree.

it's a good thing he's showing his full colours now, before he's even been selected candidate.

Sure, there's nothing he could ever do that would turn away the True Cult, but I'm sure many Republicans do have red lines, and he's busy crossing them.

Of course, that relies on the media actually informing US voters that TFG has said these things.

If large sections of the media are silent on these issues, those stations' loyal viewers will remain uninformed.

Didn't our government once consider counting pensions - or something else which wasn't previously counted - in order to inflate the percentage figure?

Stoltenberg's response to Trump's comments below. I'm really perturbed to hear analysts talking about war with Russia as an inevitability, arguing we have 3, 5 or 10 years to prepare. The narrative of deterrence seems to have collapsed into one of preparation for definite war.

But preparation IS a form of defence. The two are not mutually exclusive. The rhetoric has changed and yes the reality has too, we have a hot war in Europe, an aggressive Russia and a declining US power. The rhetoric has to change but that doesn’t mean it’s inevitable.

If Russia hears that we’re prepared and ready for a war with them that arguably reduces the risk of such a war. They smell weakness and that’s the mistake we made with Ukraine.

Yy, @Igotjelly

agreed with @Igotjelly too.

Talking about -and preparing for!- war paradoxically in this situation makes it less likely.

Putin attacks the weak directly.

He attacks the strong indirectly first by hybrid warfare and subversion from within, which buys us time. Unfortunately no leaders seem to be fighting the hybrid warfare except for strong warnings, which fall on deaf ears when people scroll Tiktok or Twitter or listen to GB News. But it does buy us time, and one day Putin will be too old.

Why on God's green earth would the president of another country be calling Trump "sir"?

This is the prelude to a lie, every single time. Someone calls him "sir". I wonder whether this putative president had tears in his eyes as well? That used to be the other dead giveaway.

(Also, for that creep to talk about having to pay your bills is a truly croggling example of "do as I say, don't do as I do".)

Yy, "Sir" is one of TFG's tells.

Totally agree re prep etc, I meant more the narrative around it. There's been a shift from prep to be strong to prep for definite war. I mean, this is the cesspit of Twitter but it's coming from serious analysts. I get what you're saying, that the two may be indistinguishable but some of it is very specific. Bah this is why I left Twitter and now I find myself pulled back in

You said it yourself, Twitter is a cesspit!

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-10-2024

Key Takeaways:
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• Delays in Western security assistance may lead to significant Ukrainian air defense missile shortages that could allow Russian forces to bomb Ukrainian forces or even front-line cities more aggressively.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed Major General Anatoliy Barhylevych as Chief of the Ukrainian General Staff, replacing Lieutenant General Serhiy Shaptala.
• Russian drone footage published on February 9 showed Russian forces executing Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) near Klishchiivka in the Bakhmut direction.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated several Kremlin narratives aimed at justifying Russia’s war in Ukraine and threatening the West at a ceremony honoring Diplomats’ Day on February 10.
• Kremlin mouthpieces reiterated ongoing Russian narratives blaming the West, specifically the United States, for the absence of constructive peace negotiations to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, despite numerous Russian statements indicating that Russia is not interested in good-faith peace negotiations with Ukraine.
• The Russian State Duma is considering a bill aimed at further censoring actors designated as “foreign agents,” likely aimed at censoring dissent from opposition media outlets and prominent information space voices.
• Russian forces made confirmed advances near Kreminna and Avdiivka.
• The relatives of mobilized Russian soldiers continue to protest throughout Russia despite previous Kremlin efforts to censor similar protests and suppress any possible resurgence of a broader social movement in support of mobilized Russian soldiers.
• Russian and occupation officials continue to set conditions for the deportation of Ukrainian children from occupied Ukraine through educational and extracurricular schemes.

Twitter is getting worse and worse and worse.

I'd offer Bluesky codes but it's open to everyone now!

I don't know what Bluesky is! Off to google!