Ukraine Invasion: Part 47

[MagicFox]

Welcome to thread 47. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

I know this has been covered on the thread but there are some brave people featured in the interviews linked. One woman refers to Putin as 'the Hitler of our time'

Thousands of mourners gathered in Moscow on Friday to say goodbye to the late opposition activist Alexei Navalny.

We spoke to some of those who went to the memorial service so that they could share their thoughts on Navalny, as well as the government's response to the funeral.

x.com/moscowtimes/status/1764265152357019879?s=61&t=NaIdJ_hpeHJ7BCXblc3CMg

From Twitter:

Desdamona, thanks for sharing.

"Love is stronger than fear"

These people deserve so much better than Putin 😭

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-2-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces appear to be willing to risk continued aviation losses in pursuit of tactical gains in eastern Ukraine, likely along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Transfers of North Korean weapons to Russia by sea apparently paused as of mid-February 2024.
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov publicly rejected Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s recent offer to host a negotiation platform for Russia and Ukraine.
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov used the Antalya Diplomatic Forum to promote Kremlin narratives about Moldova, likely to set conditions for potential Kremlin hybrid operations that aim to destabilize Moldova and prevent Moldova’s accession to the European Union (EU).
• Senior Russian officials acknowledged Armenia’s reduced participation in the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), marking a notable shift in Russian official rhetoric that previously sought to ignore Armenian efforts to distance itself from the CSTO.
• The Kremlin appears to have largely permitted displays of anti-war sentiment in Moscow as Russians observed Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s funeral on March 1.
• Russian forces made confirmed advances near Kreminna, Avdiivka, and Krynky on March 2.
• Russian Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov inspected a Russian shipbuilding facility and the construction site of a new military hospital in the Republic of Dagestan during a working trip to Russia’s Southern Military District on March 2.

Final count on Odessa residential apartment attack.

12 dead including 5 children under the age of 10.

Meanwhile speaker Johnson might allow a vote on aid to Ukraine in a few weeks or maybe a month.

I'm so angry. The damage to the US as a reliable security partner is huge and will be long lasting.

The rest of the West shoulders blame for relying too heavily on the US but it's a mistake we won't make again at the cost of US influence.

It will take time to fill the void and that will be paid for in Ukrainian lives.

He (Johnson) has the blood of those children on his hands, may he never forget it 😡

US Republicans took USA and allies to war against Iraq when they shouldn’t have. Yet now Republicans are thwarting funding for helping Ukraine when they really should. The US Republican Party are despicable.

Seems almost certain that there won’t be a rise in defence spending under the budget to be announced on Wed.

Disgusting. Another nail in the Tory coffin.

Good article by Prof Michael Clarke that outlines succinctly why we need to increase our support to Ukraine NOW, America or no America. I'll be voting Labour in the next election - John Healey has been clear about how they're prioritising defence. Jeremy Hunt can kiss my fox arse!

Ukraine and the Return of Industrial-Age War to Europe

tippingpoint2020s.com/2024/03/01/ukraine-and-the-return-of-industrial-age-war-to-europe-by-michael-clarke/

Daily Blast discussion about Trump.

podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/deep-state-radio/id1245002955?i=1000647909231

Jacob Heilbrunn discusses Trump's meeting with Orban and believes that they are working to appease Putin by giving him Ukraine as first part of Trump's larger desire to exit NATO. He suggests that Trump wants Putin to have his desired sphere of influence over central and Eastern Europe and that the long term plan is to Finlandise Europe on these terms while the US withdraws. Eurgh, I feel permanently nauseous

Good piece from former US secretary of defence. Hope he has ears in congress still: archive.is/2023.11.12-113651/www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/robert-gates-america-china-russia-dysfunctional-superpower

Agreed. Tories are dead to me if they don't increase defence spending.

It's amazing how this country has turned from a general attitude of disapproval of every penny spent on defence to general demanding that defence spending must be increased, during my lifetime. That the Tories didn't decrease the defence budget used to be seen as a bad thing!

Unfortunately I fear we're in a bit of an echo chamber on this. I do wonder if a survey were done of average voters on the street whether they'd want to see defence spending raised as much as we on this thread do, I suspect not. People want to see more money on education and health and they want their potholes filled..... at least that's what it seems to be like round my bit!

I do have to remind myself frequently that just because I'm a bit of a nerd on Ukraine and listen to a million podcasts a day not everyone does.

LeSoleil, thanks for making this important point. I have just written to my local MP.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️CNN: Johnson opens door for alternative https://kyivindependent.com/cnn-johnson-opens-door-for-alternative-ukraine-aid-package-in-house/ Ukraine aid package in House.
The House proposal would reportedly allocate $66 billion to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, but would not include humanitarian aid and would impose severe restrictions on asylum seekers. [Christ that guy is a pustule on the behind of a rotting rat corpse]

⚡️Russian FM: Russia, China agree https://kyivindependent.com/russian-fm-russia-china-agree-on-russias-participation-in-ukrainian-talks/ on need for Moscow to participate in Ukrainian talks.

⚡️Reuters: Turkish Foreign Minister says https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-turkish-foreign-minister-says-it-is-time-to-start-a-dialogue-for-a-ceasefire-in-ukraine/ 'it is time to start a dialogue for a ceasefire' in Ukraine.

⚡️WSJ: Russia's spy network expands https://kyivindependent.com/wsj-russias-spy-network-expands-after-full-scale-invasion/ after full-scale invasion.
Officials say that Putin's decision to leave Russia's borders open following the February invasion allowed FSB spies to join the thousands of Russians who fled the country to avoid mobilization.

⚡️ Deputy PM: Ukraine expects EU accession negotiation framework 'no later than March 12 https://kyivindependent.com/deputy-pm-ukraine-expects-eu-accession-negotiations-framework-no-later-than-march-12/

⚡️Media: German Defense Minister calls leaked German military audio 'disinformation attack' https://kyivindependent.com/media-german-defense-minister-calls-leaked-german-military-audio-a-disinformation-attack/ "This is a hybrid disinformation attack, it’s about division,” Pistorius said, according to the German television channel Tagesschau. “We must not fall for Putin.”

⚡️ Russian media: Moscow summons German ambassador https://kyivindependent.com/russian-media-moscow-summons-german-ambassador-following-leaked-audio-on-aid-to-ukraine/ following alleged leaks.
The Russian Foreign Ministry summoned German Ambassador to Russia Alexander Lambsdorf on March 4, the Russian state-owned agency TASS reported.

⚡️ NATO begins large-scale military drills https://kyivindependent.com/nato-military-drills-in-northern-europe/ in northern Europe.
The Nordic Response 24 NATO exercises begin in northern Finland, Sweden, and Norway on March 4, for the first time with the participation of Finland as a NATO member, the Finnish public broadcaster YLE reported. Nordic Response will take place on land, at sea, and in the air, involving around 20,000 soldiers from 14 countries.

Russia is increasing imports of dual-use goods like drones or U.S.-made computer chips from China via Central Asian trade routes, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on March 4. Customs data show that Chinese exports of 45 sanctioned goods to Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have risen to $1.3 billion in 2023, a 64% increase compared to the previous year, the outlet wrote. https://kyivindependent.com/wsj-us-chips-flow-to-russia-from-china-via-central-asian-routes/

An agreement has been signed with U.S. tech company Palantir to employ artificial intelligence in Ukraine's humanitarian demining efforts, the Economy Ministry reported on March 3. https://kyivindependent.com/economy-ministry-reaches-agreement-with-palantir-to-accelerate-demining-efforts/

⚡️Occupation authorities shut down https://kyivindependent.com/occupation-authorities-shut-down-crimean-bridge-again/ Crimean Bridge second night in a row.

⚡️ Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) launched a DDoS attack against the servers of the Russian Defense Ministry, gaining access to "a bulk of classified service documents," the agency said on March 4.
The operation by military intelligence cyber specialists reportedly helped to obtain orders, reports, instructions, and reports "that circulated among about 2,000 structural units of the Russian security service," as well as information security and encryption software. https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-claims-cyberattack-on-russian-defense-ministry-gave-access-to-classified-documents/

⚡️ Military intelligence: Railway bridge blown up https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-railway-bridge-blown-up-in-russias-samara-oblast/ in Russia's Samara Oblast. The bridge and the adjacent railway connection were used by Russia to transport military cargo, namely engineering explosives produced by the JSC Polimer in the city of Chapayevsk, the military intelligence agency said.

⚡️ Ukrenergo: Ukraine plans record electricity exports to 5 countries. https://kyivindependent.com/ukrenergo-ukraine-plans-record-electricity-exports-to-5-countries/

⚡️ Shmyhal: Ukraine plans to reduce number of ministries by one-third. https://kyivindependent.com/shmyhal-ukraine-to-reduce-number-of-ministries-by-third/
According to Shmyhal, 20,000 government vacancies have already been cut in 2024. If the number of ministries is reduced, there will be 15 or 16 ministries left in Ukraine, the prime minister said. Ukraine currently has 21 ministers.

⚡️Shmyhal: 8 taxpayers per soldier https://kyivindependent.com/shmyhal-ukraine-needs-8-taxpayers-per-soldier-to-fund/ needed to fund military.

The average number of Russian casualties in February was approximately 983 per day, marking an all-time high since the start of the full-scale invasion, the U.K. Defense Ministry wrote in its March 3 update. https://kyivindependent.com/uk-defense-ministry-average-number-of-daily-russian-losses-reaches-new-high-in-february/

⚡️Official: Poland holds informal talks https://kyivindependent.com/official-poland-holds-informal-talks-with-eu-on-exemptions-for-farmers/ with EU on exemptions for farmers.

At least 16 people have been injured after Russian forces launched what was likely a guided aerial bomb on the city center of Kurakhove, a city in Donetsk Oblast, local governor Vadim Filashkin reported on March 3. https://kyivindependent.com/governor-at-least-16-injured-in-russian-attack-on-kurakhove/

⚡️ France releases list of aid https://kyivindependent.com/france-releases-list-of-aid-donated-to-ukraine-since-feb-24-2022/ donated to Ukraine since Feb. 24, 2022. @notimagain
France has committed more than 3.8 billion euros ($4.1 billion) in security assistance to Ukraine between Feb. 24, 2022, and Dec. 31, 2023, including 2.615 billion euros ($2.8 billion) in military equipment and a 1.2 billion euro ($1.3 billion) donation to the European Peace Facility (EFF), the French Defense Ministry announced on March 3.
The newly published list of 50 items includes 30 Caesar self-propelled artillery systems, 38 AMX10 armored fighting vehicles, 250 VAB armored vehicles in various modifications, 160 drones, and other aid.

⚡️ Russian court arrests ex-Ukrainian ambassador https://kyivindependent.com/russian-court-arrests-ex-ukrainian-ambassador-to-kazakhstan-in-absentia/ to Kazakhstan in absentia.

⚡️Rescue operations end https://kyivindependent.com/rescue-operations-cease-in-odesa-with-12-dead-after-russian-drone-attack/ in Odesa with 12 killed, including 5 children, after Russian drone attack.

⚡️ Hungarian FM: Conditions not yet ripe for Zelensky-Orban meeting. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-media-conditions-not-yet-ripe-for-zelensky-orban-meeting-hungarian-minister-says/

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

• MAR 4, 2024

■ All strike indicators below 7-day average; no 🇺🇦 artillery strike reported ■ Landbased equipment losses below 7-day average but high casualties continue

My God, the Supreme Court has just found in favour of Trump and overturned the Colarado judgement

Not even sure what to say now @MagicFox.

Ill carry on with the roundup but .... Shit.

Awful as it seems wasn’t this always the most likely outcome?

Maybe I was been uncharacteristically optimistic about it. I don't think the world can afford another Trump presidency. I already have anticipatory despair about him winning and this has triggered it I think!

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

China's Special Representative for Eurasian Affairs, Li Hui, visited Russia on March 2, where he engaged in discussions about the war in Ukraine with Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation, Mikhail Galuzin, as reported by Reuters.

European leaders reportedly harbor reservations about Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas assuming leadership roles in the EU and NATO due to her perceived tough stance towards Russia, as reported by Politico .....
Addressing the issue of geographical balance, Kallas questioned the prevalence of Dutch leadership within NATO, emphasizing concerns about equality among member states.
Politico observes that Eastern European countries have had limited representation in leadership positions within the EU and NATO since their accession in 2004. Poland stands out as an exception, with former Prime Minister Donald Tusk serving as President of the European Council for one term and Jerzy Buzek, another former Polish Prime Minister, holding the position of President of the European Parliament for three years.

The EU may present a formal proposal for the use of profits from frozen Russian assets for the benefit of Ukraine in two weeks, as reported by Euractiv.

The European Commission is set to propose granting Ukraine full membership in the EU defense industry support scheme. This initiative aims to leverage Kyiv's expertise and facilitate its alignment with EU standards, thereby advancing Ukraine's progress towards EU membership, as reported by Euractiv.

⚡️Belgium has announced its readiness to allocate funds from profits derived from frozen Russian assets to support Ukrainian defense needs.

Italy will take away its SAMP/T air defense system from Slovakia
According to the country's Prime Minister Robert Fico, Italy leased air defense to Slovakia for a year and will now withdraw the complex because it is needed elsewhere.

Currently, Russian agents are displaying increasing audacity and ingenuity in suppressing dissent abroad. They may be implicated in the high-profile assassinations of Russian defectors, with particular focus given to the death of Russian pilot Maxim Kuzminov.

The impact of war extends far beyond human casualties, as innocent animals also endure tremendous suffering amid war. https://t.me/United24media/19257

From Odesa.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇵🇱 Poland will ask the EU to impose sanctions on agricultural products from Russia and Belarus
This was stated https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poland-urges-eu-sanctions-russian-belarusian-farm-products-2024-03-04/ by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk during his visit to Lithuania, Reuters reports.

🇺🇦🇪🇺 Ukraine will not extend the gas transit contract with Russia, but is ready to provide a service to European partners if any of them transit their gas, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said.
European Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson says the EU does not intend to talk to Russia about continuing the transit of Russian gas to Europe through Ukraine. Instead, the EU will do everything to get rid of Russian gas.

🇧🇪 Belgium is ready to finance Ukraine's defense needs with profits from Russian assets, Prime Minister Shmyhal said
In total, Belgium has declared €1.7 billion in profits from frozen Russian assets.

🇹🇷The volume of supplies from Türkiye to Russia in February decreased https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2024/03/03/turetskii-eksport-vrossiyu-upal-natret-iz-za-ugrozi-vtorichnih-sanktsii-ssha-a123347** by 33% to $670 million compared to $1 billion in the same period in 2023, according to the Turkish Ministry of Trade
The reason for the decline in trade was the risk of secondary US sanctions. On December 22, Biden authorized the Treasury Department to impose restrictions on foreign financial institutions that help service transactions involving sanctioned persons from Russia or facilitate the supply of equipment to the Russian military-industrial complex.

Since the beginning of February, Russia has lost 15 military aircraft, President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

Ukraine is preparing for a Russian disinformation campaign against President Volodymyr Zelensky www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-03/ukraine-braced-for-russian-disinformation-attacks-on-zelenskiy
Bloomberg, citing sources, writes that Russia will try to sow doubt about Zelensky among Ukrainian society, particularly among the military, and undermine his legitimacy in the eyes of the public.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-3-2024

Key Takeaways:

• China and Turkey continue to pursue their own negotiation platforms for a settlement in Ukraine, which the Kremlin is exploiting to further its own information operations aimed at discouraging continued international support for Ukraine.
• Recent relatively high Russian aviation losses appear to be prompting a significant decrease in Russian aviation activity in eastern Ukraine, although it is unclear how long this decrease in activity will last.
• Delays in Western security assistance will likely make Ukraine’s energy infrastructure more vulnerable to Russian strikes.
• Russian forces operating around Avdiivka appear to be adapting to conducting offensive ground operations with trained and untrained personnel.
• German officials confirmed that the Kremlin is conducting an information operation aimed at deterring Western states, particularly Germany, from sending additional military aid to Ukraine.
• The Russian Anti-Terrorism Committee (NAK) announced on March 3 that the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) conducted a localized counter-terrorism operation in Karabulak, Republic of Ingushetia.
• Positional engagements continued throughout the theater on March 3.
• Russian regional administrations continue efforts to expand the aperture of ongoing crypto-mobilization efforts.