Ukraine Invasion: Part 47

[MagicFox]

Welcome to thread 47. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

It's not being reported at all within Russia so can only be seen on the internet by those that search for it, which carries it's own risk

I wonder how many people simply don't know it's happening, which has a follow on question - was it advertised at all, and if not, was the time and place only spread by word of mouth?

In fact, was Navalny's death reported widely at all?

@notimagain

That thought brings us back to maybe something that got missed in my earlier reply but you alluded to it in your flyover comment:

Folks might not be aware that you can't park or dwell a satellite at low altitude over e.g. Ukraine watching the scene 24/7, the physics doesn't allow it....the imaging satellites such as Keyhole and commercial imagers rush around in Low Earth orbit travelling horizontally at 8 km/second (5 miles/second) and they will get only maybe one, possibly two fleeting optimal passes over a site of interest in any 24 hour period...

Thanks, I should have explained that in my earlier post, rather than assuming that everyone already understood how they work.

Every day's a school day on Mumsnet. 😀

If anyone missed this on Wednesday, the Russian Army is still gathering large concentrations of troops in open spaces for awards ceremonies with visiting officers. They are clearly not a learning organization.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1762882315569561826

I cried my eyes out. In fact I cried all morning watching the funeral footage 💔

A small flicker of hope for positive change died with the ruthless murder of Alexey Navalny.

Well Rishi’s address this evening made Putin’s yesterday look positively statesmanlike, and that’s saying something 🤨

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-29-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian officials are reportedly concerned about the possibility of significant Russian territorial gains in Summer 2024 in the event of continued delays in Western security assistance.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin used his February 29 address to the Federal Assembly to attempt to convince the Russian public that his next term as president will be defined by Russian military success in Ukraine but not at the expense of stagnating or decreased social and economic welfare.
• Putin used tired rhetoric about negotiations and nuclear saber rattling during his Federal Assembly speech, likely to seize on Western attention to the speech to promote ongoing Kremlin information operations.
• Putin emphasized the Kremlin’s domestic focus on 2024 as the “Year of the Family” to address Russia’s ongoing demographic crisis during his Federal Assembly address.
• Putin did not respond to the February 28 request from the Congress of Deputies from pro-Russian Moldovan breakaway region Transnistria, but this lack of response still affords the Kremlin several possible courses of action (COA) at a later time.
• Ukrainian forces downed three more Su-34 fighter aircraft in eastern Ukraine on February 28 and 29.
• The Kremlin continues to assert its self-arrogated right to enforce Russian federal law on citizens of NATO member and former Soviet states over actions taken within the territory of their own countries.
• Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) is a threat to Armenian security as Russian officials refused to acknowledge Armenia’s reduced participation in the CSTO.
• The Kremlin has reportedly established high-level positions in all federal bodies to promote patriotism and history within each body, likely aimed at strengthening informational and ideological control over federal employees.
• Russian forces made confirmed advances near Avdiivka amid continued positional engagements along the frontline on February 29.
• Russian state-owned defense conglomerate Rostec Head Sergei Chemezov stated on February 29 that Rostec plans to produce A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft on an unspecified schedule because Russian forces require more A-50 aircraft.
• Occupation officials continue to support Kremlin efforts to gain further control over religious groups in occupied Ukraine.

The Kremlin has reportedly established high-level positions in all federal bodies to promote patriotism and history within each body, likely aimed at strengthening informational and ideological control over federal employees.

The Political Officers are back. Putin's taken one more step to recreate the Soviet Union.

The crowds attending the funeral of Navalny were so moving, I felt the first glimmer of hope for Russia today in a long time. Heartbreaking that his wife and children weren’t able to attend though. Good reminder (for me) that many Russians are victims too, but hard to reconcile that when the Russians are advancing in Ukraine. So frustrating watching and waiting for Ukrainians to receive artillery.

They were brave people.

I hope the hackers can somehow broadcast the footage across Russia to show everyone there that there is hope.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Rutte signs Dutch-Ukrainian 10 year security agreement https://kyivindependent.com/rutte-signs-dutch-ukrainian-security-agreement/ in Kharkiv. "The document includes 2 billion euros in military aid from the Netherlands this year, as well as further defense assistance over the next ten years," Zelensky said.

⚡️ Bloomberg: Ukraine may get first shells found through Czech-led initiative 'within weeks.' https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-ukraine-may-get-first-shells-found-in-czech-led-initiative-within-weeks/

Ukraine destroyed 13 Russian military aircraft in 2 weeks. How? https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-destroyed-13-russian-military-aircraft-in-2-weeks-how/

⚡️ St. Petersburg governor reports damaged buildings amid drone attack claims. https://kyivindependent.com/st-petersburg-governor-reports-damaged-buildings-following-alleged-drone-attack/

⚡️Ukraine’s sea exports reach record monthly level https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-sea-exports-reach-record-monthly-level-since-full-scale-invasion/ since full-scale invasion.

⚡️Bloomberg: Macron-Scholz split hurting Ukraine https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-macron-scholz-split-can-damage-ukraine/
Macron and Scholz are not getting along, and Macron's recent suggestion of a possible deployment of Western troops in Ukraine has further fueled the disagreement, Bloomberg reported on March 1.

Deputy Minister Klimenkov takes charge of defense procurement. Can he fix what's broken? https://kyivindependent.com/deputy-minister-klimenkov-talks-about-reforming-ukraines-troubled-defense-procurements/
Deputy Defense Minister Dmytro Klimenkov was hired to fundamentally transform Ukraine’s troubled defense acquisitions into a robust, efficient system, with impeccable oversight.

Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi on March 2 said he was forced to make "personnel decisions" regarding some eastern front brigade commanders whose actions "threaten the life and health" of their soldiers. https://kyivindependent.com/syrskyi-criticizes-some-brigade-commanders-hints-at-personnel-changes/

⚡️Zelensky: Kharkiv not safe enough https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-kharkiv-not-safe-enough-for-residents-to-return/ for residents to return.

⚡️Bulgaria will stop https://kyivindependent.com/bulgaria-will-stop-importing-russian-oil/ importing Russian oil, thereby ending a two-year embargo exemption, the Bulgarian news outlet BGNES reported on March 1.

⚡️Kuleba: Russia excluded from Danube Commission https://kyivindependent.com/kuleba-russia-excluded-from-danube-commission-due-to-its-attacks-on-odesa-oblast/ due to its attacks on Odesa Oblast.
Russia was expelled from the Danube Commission, an international intergovernmental organization developing free navigation on the Danube River, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba reported on March 1.

⚡️State Border Guard: Polish farmers completely block https://kyivindependent.com/state-border-guard-polish-farmers-completely-block-medyka-shehyny-border-crossing/ Medyka-Shehyni border crossing.

⚡️Reuters: EU to step up checks https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-eu-to-step-up-checks-on-grain-exports-from-ukraine-to-ease-farmers-fears/ on grain exports from Ukraine to ease farmers' fears.

Seven Ukrainian vocational schools will implement a commercial drone education program, Ukraine's Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov wrote on his Telegram channel on March 1. https://kyivindependent.com/minister-drone-educational-program-introduced-in-ukrainian-vocational-schools/

⚡️Switzerland joins EU https://kyivindependent.com/switzerland-joins-eu-in-expanding-sanctions-against-russia/ in expanding sanctions against Russia.
Switzerland has expanded its sanctions against Russia in line with the European Union’s 13th package of sanctions, the Swiss government announced on March 1.

⚡️Shmyhal: Ukraine aims to produce 15 billion cubic meters of gas https://kyivindependent.com/shmyhal-ukraine-targets-to-produce-15-billion-cubic-meters-of-gas-in-2024/ in 2024.

'Who are they fighting, children?' Family of 5 killed in devastating Russian attack on Kharkiv https://kyivindependent.com/family-killed-in-russian-attack-on-kharkiv/

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

⚡️ WAR IN

• MAR 1, 2024

■ Engagements below 7-day avg but strikes above it ■ Landbased equipment losses 41% above avg, casualties at 7-day avg ■ 3x jets shot down for the 2nd time this year ■ Feb: 1st in landbased equipment losses, 2nd in casualties

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

warning distressing image at bottom

Starting from March 1, Russians are going to mobilize Ukrainians in the temporarily occupied territories into the Russian army.
Putin has signed a decree "On military-administrative division," according to which the occupied territories of 4 regions of Ukraine are now "officially included" in the southern military district of Russia, says the head of the Berdiansk Regional Military Administration, Viktoriia Halitsina.
"This means that from the moment the decree comes into force on March 1, 2024, official conscription and mobilization will take place in Berdiansk and other illegally seized territories of Ukraine, just like in all regions of Russia," she explains.

The First Vice Prime Minister and Minister of the Internal Affairs of the Czech Republic, Vít Rakušan, and the Minister of the Internal Affairs of Ukraine, Ihor Klymenko, are on a working visit to Lviv region.

Netherlands to provide new military aid package for Ukraine.
It will include:
▫️14 rigid-hulled inflatable boats (RHIBs);
▫️8 militarized river patrol boats;
▫️CB90-class fast assault craft.
The Netherlands also allocated €250 million for a Czech initiative to order a large number of artillery shells for Ukraine in the short term, the country's Defense Ministry said.

Argentina gave Ukraine helicopters it received from Russia, — Financial Times
In addition, the Argentine leader said that he plans to hold a “summit to support Latin America” for Ukraine in 2024.

The Ukrainian company INGUAR DEFENSE presents the first domestic MRAP with the NATO STANAG LVL 3 protection level – INGUAR 3. The armored vehicle is completely developed and created in Ukraine. https://t.me/United24media/19214

Macron is convening party leaders of the French Parliament to discuss the "situation in Ukraine."
The meeting with the parliamentary leaders is scheduled for March 7.

Sport is beyond politics, they said.

Today in Odesa, Russians killed a three-year-old child. The little boy was sleeping in his crib when an enemy drone hit a 9-story building. It is difficult to express all the pain that is tearing the hearts of Ukrainians right now.

There have been hints that the defense procurement system was flawed. There was a huge corruption scandal (notwith US weopons!) to the tune over over 100million not long ago.

If this system can be rinsed and scrubbed with bleach, that will be a very good thing.

The Polish farmer's protests are crazy. There's no doubt that Russia is amplifying them, but there also seem to be genuine concerns - Tusk, who is heavily pro-Ukraine, has spoken sharply about the problem at times.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇫🇷🇷🇺 Two French Mirage fighter jets twice took to the skies yesterday because of Russian military aircraft
Two Su-30 fighters were intercepted over the Baltic Sea, and an An-72 transport plane was intercepted in the north of Poland.

Zelensky visits Kharkiv with the Prime Minister of the Netherlands. Mark Rutte was shown the ruins and consequences of Russian shelling. https://t.me/liveukraine_media/18686

Another Moldovan region has asked for 'Russia's protection'
The head of Moldova's autonomous region of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, arrived in Moscow today and met with Valentina Matvienko, chairwoman of the Federation Council of Russia.
Moldovan President Maia Sandu had earlier reported that Gagauzia is undergoing a large-scale propaganda campaign by Moscow against the country's leadership and EU.

The European Union will tighten https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-step-up-checks-ease-farmers-fears-about-ukrainian-grain-flows-commissioner-2024-03-01/ inspections for Ukrainian grain carriers due to farmers' protests.
They will check whether they comply with agreements when exporting grain from Ukraine and whether they have the right to transit, which will facilitate trade.

166 million propaganda posts per week are published by Russian special services and bots
Most of them are aimed at demoralizing Ukrainians.

https://www.ft.com/content/1869e1e6-89b7-4edc-9362-9ff59dfc3d7d

Key Takeaways:

• Reported details of Russian-Ukrainian peace negotiations that occurred in Istanbul in April 2022 indicate that Russia has consistently envisioned a settlement for its illegal invasion of Ukraine wherein Ukraine would be unable to defend itself from a future Russian attack – an objective Russia continues to pursue under calls for Ukraine’s “demilitarization.”
• Reported details of the draft treaty suggest that Russia intended to use the treaty to set conditions for future attacks against Ukraine while also prompting the West to make concessions on Ukraine’s sovereignty.
• Russian authorities suggested that the Kremlin has likely adopted a more extensive set of goals regarding Ukraine over the course of Russia's war against Ukraine.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared to disparage Russian elites in his February 29 Federal Assembly speech, more closely aligning himself with the veteran and military community and drawing praise from ultranationalist milbloggers.
• Kremlin officials met with leaders of the pro-Russian Moldovan autonomous region Gagauzia and emphasized Russia’s support for Gagauzia against perceived Moldovan “oppression” on March 1.
• Ukraine and the Netherlands signed a 10-year bilateral security agreement on March 1.
• Russian forces made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and Donetsk City on March 1.
• Russian authorities will likely use annual combat training for Russian reservists to support crypto-mobilization efforts.

Turns out the Odesa child who was killed was 3 months old. Not three years.

Sometimes I wish the West would bring fire and ruin on Russia.

Reading some of the posts over the last few days has seen me struggle with feelings

The turnout for Navalny's funeral shows that some russians still have some decency

And then I read about what they have done to Odesa. I read the posts of embassies and officials and I just feel such a deep rooted disgust in all of them

Even on Mumsnet we have had russian posters gleefully posting about how life is great when they visit, no shortages, etc.

I've seen the description- offended by everything, ashamed of nothing. That sums it up for me

I don't know what I'm trying to say - I think I'm just thankful (although sad we're still here) that there are mumsnetters who still advocate for Ukraine

We.e.e.e.ellll...

I spent thirty years remembering Czechoslovakia "when she is no longer news". I watched the tanks roll into Prague on telly in the company of a Czech exchange student; it was the first time I had seen an adult man cry. You tend to get strong impressions from that sort of thing.

I think I might manage to keep Ukraine in my mind for just a little longer yet.

166 million propaganda posts per week are published by Russian special services and bots
Most of them are aimed at demoralizing Ukrainians

It’s alarming to see that in numbers. Even when you know that it’s being done deliberately, it’s wearing to ignore and some of those posts will hit their mark.

Oh, just for accuracy. Yesterday it was reported that a 3 year old boy was killed. Later it was corrected that it was a 3 month old.

The final report today is that both were killed.

I'd get banned if I said what I thought of Russia.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Germany investigates leaked recording of alleged discussion on missile supplies to Ukraine.
The German military intelligence has opened an investigation into an alleged leaked conversation between German officers published by Russian state media, German public broadcaster ARD reported on March 2.
In that recording, the interlocutors allegedly discussed the possibility of Ukraine using Taurus missiles to strike targets such as the Crimean Bridge. https://kyivindependent.com/berlin-investigating-russian-leaked-audio-about-possible-delivery-of-taurus-to-ukraine/

⚡️ UK Defense Ministry: Russia likely grounds its A-50 aircraft fleet.* https://kyivindependent.com/u*k-defense-ministry-russia-likely-grounds-its-a-50-aircraft-fleet/

⚡️ Hungarian parliament speaker signs off https://kyivindependent.com/hungarian-parliament-speaker-signs-off-on-swedens-nato-bid-2/ on Sweden's NATO bid. The legislation will now go to the desk of Hungary's acting president, Laszlo Kover, for promulgation.

West’s response to Macron comments on troops to Ukraine reveal discord, weakness, experts say https://kyivindependent.com/west-response-to-macron-comments-on-troops-to-ukraine-reveal-discord-weakness-experts-say/

All six checkpoints at the Ukrainian-Polish border remain blocked due to the ongoing Polish farmers’ protests, State Border Guard spokesperson Andrii Demchenko said on March 3 on national television. https://kyivindependent.com/state-border-guard-all-border-crossings-with-poland-remain-blocked/

⚡️Russian governor claims https://kyivindependent.com/leningrad-oblast-governor-claims-aerial-targets-destroyed-over-gulf-of-finland/ 'aerial targets' destroyed over Gulf of Finland.
The governor of Russia's Leningrad Oblast, Alexander Drozdenko, claimed on March 2 that air defense had shot down “aerial targets” over the waters and coast of the Gulf of Finland.
Drozdenko’s claims came after Russian state-owned media wrote about explosions near the Bronka port in St. Petersburg.

⚡️Lithuania announces https://kyivindependent.com/lithuania-announces-deadline-for-russian-registered-cars-to-leave-country/ deadline for Russian-registered cars to leave country.

⚡️Traffic shut down https://kyivindependent.com/traffic-shut-down-on-crimean-bridge-amid-reports-of-explosions/ on Crimean Bridge amid reports of explosions.

⚡️Update: Death toll of https://kyivindependent.com/update-death-toll-of-russian-attack-against-odesa-rises-to-9/ Russian March 2 attack against Odesa rises to 10.
Among the killed residents were four-month-old and three-year-old boys. Eight people were injured, including a three-year-old girl.

The economic toll of 10 years of Russia's war against Ukraine in charts (https://kyivindependent.com/10-years-of-russias-war-in-charts/)

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson

■ Fewer strikes, engagements & settlements under fire
■ But casualties (+16%) & landbased equipment losses (+17%) above 7-day average
■ Vehicles losses match 2024 record
■ Oryx: 60 🇷🇺 14 🇺🇦 (50:14 net); 30-day ratio 2.2x

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

🇵🇱 Ukraine provided emergency assistance to the Polish power system
Poland submitted a request for emergency aid on March 1. Ukraine provided assistance from 10:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. and from 1:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. in the total amount of 1,540 MWh

The Security Service of Ukraine has enhanced its maritime drones, rendering them even more lethal, reports Business Insider.
In 2024, Sea Baby marine drones with improved capabilities will target ships and bridges of the Russian Federation. A Brigadier General of the Security Service of Ukraine disclosed that these drones can now carry a payload of up to 860 kg, with an extended operational range of 950 km. Furthermore, the drones have been made reusable, a development aimed at reducing costs and enhancing effectiveness.

⚡️Russian contestants will not have the opportunity to participate in the Miss World 2024 contest as the aggressor country has been disqualified.
Veronika Shchiptsova, head of the "Miss Ukraine" organizing committee, announced that this decision was made due to the behavior of Russian contestant Roza Gadieva, who insulted Ukrainian participant Milena Melnychuk during the "Miss Europe" contest.
"Hey, Miss Ukraine, do you have a war? Are you shaking your tits at a beauty pageant?" shouted Gadiyeva.

The Ukrainian spring issue of Vogue presents a large-scale photo essay by British photographer Brett Lloyd. Ukrainian model Karyna Maziar graces the cover of the collection alongside cadets of the Ivan Bohun Kyiv Military Lyceum. Titled Ukraine Today, the series of photographs by the prominent British artist beautifully embodies the metaphor of modern Ukraine—youthful, energetic, yet clad in military uniform

Yesterday Russians killed a woman and her three-month-old child in Odesa.

The number of victims in Odesa increased to 10, another dead baby was found next to the woman's body. The mother tried to cover her 8-month-old child. They were found in a tight embrace. [brave, brave Russians. Heros. Such noble, honourable fighters].

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

In Latvia, German Eurofighter jets were sent up to intercept Russian military aircraft.
The Latvian Air Force Command reported that the incident occurred on March 1. Two aircraft, including an IL-76 transport, approached the country's territorial waters. It is stated that this is the first time that German Eurofighters have taken off from the Lielvarde base on an interception mission.

In Yekaterinburg, Russia, an explosion occurred at a power substation last night
Russian media reported that the explosion was caused by improvised explosives.

Local telegram channels report that the video shows a Su-34 shot down yesterday in the Mariupol direction. https://t.me/liveukraine_media/18722

Against the backdrop of a Russian drone hitting an Odesa high-rise building, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the world knows what can be used against terror - air defense systems. He added that the delay in the supply of weapons and air defense systems leads to an increase in the number of children whose lives have been taken by Russia.

Odesa, Ukraine: People are bringing flowers, candles, and toys to the building destroyed by Russians

Russian army in Avdiivka started looting the homes of local residents.
A post in a local group of a Russian city of Perm proudly proclaims: "Hi from Avdiivka, we're in full-on nightmare mode) GOD IS WITH US!"

[ Sunday rant]

With regard to casualties in Ukraine I'm hoping that once/if a cease fire is enacted in Gaza the protesters marching through London complaining about casualties in that conflict will find time to resume their weekly marches on the Russian Embassy in London....oh, hang on..................... Sadly I suspect even if the will to do so existed their handlers, especially those associated with the likes of the Socialist Workers party, will suddenly be too busy to continue providing support and encouragement....[/Sunday Rant]

And breathe......

Moving on, one item of recent news in the UK has been that a Former prime minister Sir John Major has asked Jeremy Hunt, Chancellor of the Exchequer (the UK's finance minister) "to prioritise extra spending on defence over tax cut in next weeks budget....

Some of us will remember Sir John being the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer and then more importantly the Prime Minister when a policy called "Options for change" decimated UK Forces...

"Options for Change was a restructuring of the British Armed Forces in summer 1990 after the end of the Cold War"

"Total manpower was cut by approximately 18 per cent to around 255,000 (120,000 army; 60,000 navy; 75,000 air force)"

(qutes from wiki, link below)

TBF to the ex-PM it's got even worse since he wielded the knife but it's yet another example of a senior politician or military officer doing one thing when in office and then having a bit of an about face once retired.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Options_for_Change

From Edward Hunter Christie on Twitter referring to link showing cars damaged that were meant for the ZSU:

So, destroying cars that are exiting Poland should help stop foreign grain depressing the Polish market?

Let's stop pretending this is just about grain markets, @donaldtusk and @radeksikorski, you have Russian or Russia-aligned saboteurs and provocateurs on your territory.

https://x.com/kartulgirl/status/1764271427472003410?s=61&t=NaIdJJ_hpeHJ7BCXblc3CMg

Poland really needs to get a grip on this situation.