Ukraine Invasion: Part 47

[MagicFox]

Welcome to thread 47. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

Imagine (as being reported on Sky) being advised to turn up to a funeral with details for a lawyer because the risk of arrest is so high. And it's not normal arrest, it's arrest where you never quite know if you'll get out again in one piece.

I don't hate all Russians but I have come to believe the culture is a profoundly bad one. Not in all facets, but the actions of the Russian soldiers in Ukraine show a profound brutality - worse, a revelling in brutality, plus the fact that lying and deceit is so very deeply embedded in the culture, plus the lack of care for others. ~not every Russian~ I will add again - some paid for the flights from transported Ukrainians to Japan, some work for Ukraine from outside the country. But culture forms many aspects of a person's nature, and thus there is an interplay between person and culture, culture and person.

Unrestrained humans, especially soldiers, can be utterly vile, worse than anything in the animal kingdom, but many, even most, countries try to restrain the savagery. Russia does not, along with ISIS and one or two other extremely bad locations.

I would never have believed that Russians would act the way they have, not long ago. The signs were there in Chechnya, in the Beslan school incident, in a few others, but I guess I didn't really believe the evidence enough.

These are symptoms of systemic, intergenerational trauma caused by oppression.

It's the classic abused becomes the abuser.

There is a reason why soldiers from truly democratic free countries don't act en masse like Russian's do. Israel is an interesting example of something in between. It's a free democratic country founded in the wake of a genocide and still carrying the scars of that intergenerational trauma and I think we see that in the brutality we're currently witnessing in Gaza.

It's very moving seeing the Russian people that have lined up for Navalny, that chant his name in spite of the police presence and threats.

Agreed it's the abused becoming the abusers, but it's so deeply entrenched in the culture that the culture itself is abusive both internally and externally.

Brave people

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️European Parliament calls on EU to 'give Ukraine whatever it needs to defeat Russia, including long-range weapons. ' https://kyivindependent.com/european-parliament-calls-on-eu-to-give-ukraine-whatever-it-needs-to-defeat-russia/ [That means you, Mr Scholz]

⚡️ Pentagon: US aid critical for Ukraine to liberate occupied territories. https://kyivindependent.com/us-aid-for-ukraine-occupied-territory/

⚡️ Finnish Defense Minister: Ukraine can use https://kyivindependent.com/finnish-defense-minister-there-are-no-restrictions-on-usage-of-finnish-military-aid-provided-to-ukraine/ Finnish-provided weapons to strike Russia

U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson told the Voice of America (VoA) on Feb. 29 that his chamber would consider $60 billion in aid for Ukraine "as soon as the government is funded." https://kyivindependent.com/speaker-johnson-says-house-will-consider-ukraine-aid-as-soon-as-government-is-funded/

⚡️US Congress passes bill to avert government shutdown https://kyivindependent.com/us-congress-passes-bill-to-avoid-government-shutdown-without-ukraine-aid/ without Ukraine aid.

⚡️ Military intelligence: Russian officials, suspects in Ukraine involved in 'Maidan-3' destabilizing campaign aimed against Ukraine, a military intelligence spokesperson Andrii Yusov said on March 1 on national television.. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-intelligence-russian-officials-suspects-in-ukraine-involved-in-maidan-3-destabilizing-campaign-of-ukraine/

⚡️General Staff: Ukraine hit Russian troops https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-ukraine-attacked-russian-troops-cluster-in-olenivka-19-soldiers-killed/ clustered in Olenivka, 19 soldiers killed.

Poland will consider banning food imports from Russia after it "analyzes" the results of Latvia's decision to do so, Bloomberg reported on Feb. 29, citing Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. https://kyivindependent.com/poland-to-consider-banning-russian-food-following-latvias-decision/

Zelensky dismissed Oleh Huliak from the position of commander of Ukraine's Logistics Forces, replacing him with Volodymyr Karpenko, according to his decrees published on Feb. 29. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-replaces-logistics-forces-commander/

⚡️ Minister: Canada open to sending some soldiers to Ukraine in 'non-combat role.' https://kyivindependent.com/minister-canada-open-to-send-troops-to-ukraine-in-non-combat-role/ ttawa is ready to send a limited number of military personnel to Ukraine, but only to train Ukrainian soldiers and not for participation in hostilities, Canadian Defense Minister Bill Blair said in an interview with Toronto Star, published on Feb. 29.

The Netherlands has spent at least 166 million euros ($179.8 million) on costs related to the downing of MH17, for which it holds Russia liable, according to a report by the Dutch General Audit Chamber (ARK) published on Feb. 29. https://kyivindependent.com/netherlands-costs-investigation-mh17-downing/

⚡️ Military intelligence: Russian Pantsir missile system hit in Belgorod Oblast. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-pantsir-missile-system-was-hit-in-belgorod-oblast-ukrainian-intelligence-says/ In a post on its Telegram channel accompanied by a video showing the alleged attack, the military intelligence agency wrote that the strike disabled the Pantsir, and two Russian soldiers on board were wounded.

⚡️ Military: Ukraine partially retakes ground https://kyivindependent.com/military-ukraine-partially-retakes-lost-ground-near-avdiivka-while-russia-pushes-toward-chasiv-yar/ near Avdiivka while Russia pushes toward Chasiv Yar.

Putin must be held responsible for the death of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, the European Parliament said in a resolution adopted on Feb. 29. https://kyivindependent.com/european-parliament-adopted-resolution-on-navalnys-death/

⚡️ Funeral service for Russian opposition leader Navalny held in Moscow. https://kyivindependent.com/navalnys-funeral-held-in-moscow/
The funeral itself is scheduled to start at 4 p.m. Moscow time at the Borisov Cemetery in the Brateyevo district. Videos published on Navalny's team Telegram channel show that huge crowds have accompanied the funeral procession on its way toward the cemetery, chanting in support of Navalny and calling Russian dictator Vladimir Putin a "killer."

⚡️Russia says it's ready to transfer bodies of POWs killed in Il-76 plane crash https://kyivindependent.com/russia-says-its-ready-to-transfer-bodies-of-pows-killed-in-il-76-plane-crash/

⚡️Ukraine, Turkey agree to extend https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-turkey-agree-to-extend-permit-free-movement-of-cargo-trucks/ permit-free movement of cargo trucks.

France will focus on providing Ukraine with air bombs and not Mirage fighters, French Minister of the Armed Forces Sebastien Lecornu reportedly said at a meeting of the country's Defense Committee of the National Assembly on Feb. 26. https://kyivindependent.com/lecornu-france-will-focus-on-providing-ukraine-with-air-bombs-instead-of-fighter-jets/

France will order 100 drones from the French company Delair that will arrive in Ukraine this summer https://kyivindependent.com/france-will-order-100-drones-for-ukraine/

⚡️ Naftogaz: Ukraine passes winter with domestic gas production https://kyivindependent.com/naftogaz-ukraine-passes-winter-with-domestic-gas-production-only-for-first-time/ only for first time.

The Synevo chain of medical laboratories said on Feb. 27 that it had reached an agreement with the State Bureau of Investigation (SBI) over the seizure of its main office and laboratory in Kyiv earlier the same day. https://kyivindependent.com/synevo-medical-laboratory-to-demand-removal-of-ukrainian-main-office-arrest-in-court/

⚡️Official: Over 270 Ukrainians killed by mines, explosives during full-scale invasion, including 14 children. https://kyivindependent.com/official-over-270-ukrainians-killed-by-mines-explosives-over-full-scale-invasion/

⚡️ Armenian media: Zelensky's rumored trip to Armenia, Azerbaijan canceled. https://kyivindependent.com/armenian-media-zelensky-alleged-trip-to-armenia-azerbaijan-canceled/

There will be "tragic consequences" if NATO troops are sent to Ukraine, and the West's support for Kyiv "risks a conflict using nuclear weapons," Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed during a two-hour State of the Nation address on Feb. 29. https://kyivindependent.com/putin-claims-nato-troops-in-ukraine/ [Blether, blether]

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
ragnarbjartur.bsky.social
⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - MAR 1, 2024
■ Engagements below 7-day avg but strikes above it
■ Landbased equipment losses 41% above avg, casualties at 7-day avg
■ 3x jets shot down for the 2nd time this year
■ Feb: 1st in landbased equipment losses, 2nd in casualties

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Ukraine’s strategy is to try to hold the front line as much as possible until the second half of the year, when Ukraine may get F-16 fighter jets and increase ammunition production, Bloomberg writes.

Russia halts gasoline exports for six months following fires at oil refineries.
The decision was made after approximately 10 refineries and oil depots in Russia were attacked in January and February. The special services do not officially take responsibility for the attacks. However, such incidents will continue to happen, says Andriy Yusov, a spokesman of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

Argentine President Javier Milei plans to hold a "Latin American support summit" for Ukraine at the end of 2024, he said in an interview with the Financial Times.

Biden wants the G7 countries to make progress on plans to use seized Russian sovereign assets to support Ukraine before their summit in June.
According to a source cited by Bloomberg, Biden does not believe that the use of seized Russian funds will replace the need for assistance. According to sources, the US president has also privately told allies that if Ukraine falls, he believes the international order will be disrupted for at least the next 50 years

If Ukraine is defeated in the war, NATO will have to fight Russia, Pentagon chief Austin said in testimony before the House Armed Services Committee.

Japan has imposed new sanctions against Russia. The list includes 12 individuals and 36 legal entities from the aggressor country, according to the Japanese Foreign Ministry.

Ukraine attacked the largest Internet portal in Russia, — Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine.
As a result of the work of Ukrainian cyber experts, all users outside the territory of the Russian Federation and several internal users lost access to their accounts.

The Ministry of Strategic Industries states that Ukrainian manufacturers have produced approximately 200,000 drones since the beginning of the year. "Currently, we are developing FPV drones of the "wing" type and light reconnaissance drones, which can be considered an analog of Mavic," Deputy Minister for Strategic Industries Hanna Hvozdyar told Forbes.

British experts have identified more than 200 companies used by Russia to circumvent sanctions.
In a recent investigation of the Royal United Services Institute, together with the Dutch and German media, they discovered illegal procurement networks operating in Germany, Lithuania, and Hong Kong and providing supplies to Russia. “Occasionally, these networks are run by trained Russian intelligence officers and people working on their behalf. In other cases, it is a trade with purely financial motivation by people without conscience," said James Byrne, a representative of the Royal United Kingdom Institute for Defense Studies, during a hearing in the US Senate.

New Zealand imposes new sanctions on Russia and Belarus.
The sanctions include:
▫️Implementation of the G7-plus price cap on Russian-origin oil;
▫️making explicit the prohibition on exporting restricted items to Russia and Belarus through third countries;
▫️designating 61 individuals and companies to counter evasion efforts.
The sanctions targeted organizations that purchase technology for the Russian defense industry, as well as individuals involved in arms purchases from North Korea.

"The work of the Joint Group for the Investigation of Russian War Crimes (JIT) has been extended for another two years," said Ladislav Khamran, head of Eurojust, at the United for Justice conference. United for Heritage in Kyiv.

The scandalous American journalist Tucker Carlson talked about his impressions of the interview with Putin on the journalist Friedman's podcast and admitted that the Kremlin is trying to demonize Ukrainians by calling them Nazis.

🛍 The Zara chain of stores is preparing to reopen stores in Ukraine after a two-year break

First Lady of Ukraine Olena Zelenska met with Queen Camilla during her visit to the UK.

I really don't want this thread to get into one on Gaza, but it is very, very important, in this day and age, to understand that calling something brutality is also a propaganda weapon, and when people weaponise it, then it can be very difficult in the fog of war to see what is going on. This I do think can also be slated back to Russia, as it suits them.
I know people who are and whose sons are in Gaza, and I know that so, so many of them have been going above and beyond (and losing their lives or being wounded) in order to try and save civilian populations in circumstances wehre they are dealing with an enemy who is booby trapping and firing from houses and streets, not to mention schools and hospitals and mosques (in which those civilians then understandably try and take refuge or return), and who steal most of the supplies (food, medicine etc), and kill civilians who try and access what is brought in. Israel is spending a significant portion of its resources in trying to create humanitarian corridors to allow in supplies, and allow them to be accessed by those for whom they are intended. None of the humanitarian organisations are prepared (or equipped, to be fair) to stop fighters looting what goes in and preventing it getting to the most vulnerable. And indeed, from Hamas' point of view, having locals unaffiliated with Hamas in charge of any supplies is a direct challenge to their rule, so they are actively working to prevent it.
I am not saying that there are not individuals who have ended up being brutal, every army has them, and often you don't know who will be until they have been tested, and it is then the job of a good army to try and root them out, court martial them etc, but from people on the ground that I trust, I think that the reality is that there is less brutality going on than would be if you brought in the American, British, Australian or European armies, given what we know from Afganistan or Iraq or historically Europe during WW2 (and that, in and of itself, is far, far less than we see and have historically seen from Russia, or say, from Syria). But it is part of the propaganda war for it to be argued likewise. One might say that at least it shows some sort of improvement, in that once upon a time it was considered OK to brutalise civilian populations, and the very fact that the propaganda war is about allegations of doing so at least shows that higher standards are somewhat prevailing (in contrast to those who are comfortable glorifying brutality, often in the same breath, when carried out by those they support). But because of the higher standards brought in by democracies, it does allow for those for whom lying is a standard method of operation, to allege things that are simply not true.
I also believe (although I am not an expert, and you might want to consult those who are) there have been studies done in psychology suggesting that being the victim of trauma does not particularly corrolate with brutality (despite it having lots of other very bad effects) - whether that is sexual trauma or being subject to physical violence (whether within a family or from war ). You might want to check your basic premise is scientifically valid - as you are rather dooming Ukraine and Ukranians as of necessity having a brutal society for generations to come, given what Russia is doing today (and assuming you accept the Holomor as a reality, are rather making assumptions about what they are also doing at this present moment). People caught up in cultures of brutality exhibiting brutality is a known thing, victims of previous brutality necessarily "passing it on", is, I believe, something of a myth.

Noted and apologies it was perhaps a clumsy reference.

There are however a multitude of studies that show intergenerational trauma is indeed a factor in individuals and populations and in the perpetuation of abuse, so the point re Russia stands in my opinion. Obviously it's not true that all of those abused become abusers but its very common that the abuser was at one point the abused. As the victim of childhood sexual abuse myself its something that I've taken great interest in for many years.

Just to be clear I don't for one second think the IDF are on par with the Russian army, apologies if I didn't make that clear.

@Naem Thank you for your post

In haste, trauma is indeed correlated with higher violence I believe, physical and emotional if it is left untreated. Even then treatment is not always successful, but generally it makes a huge difference.

Ukraine is indeed damaged and some of that damage is going to pass down, yes. But the higher levels of awareness of trauma and its effects mean that more help and treatment will be available, hopefully.

It's not going to be enough, but it will soften some of the worse effects.

The problem with Russia is that brutality is not seen as a problem. Laws against domestic violence were repealed, Russia has huge levels of child abuse (some of the worst in the world https://undispatch.com/here-is-how-every-country-ranks-on-child-safety/ https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/11-countries-with-the-highest-rates-of-child-abuse-in-the-world-353626/?singlepage=1)
and high levels of sexual abuse. https://www.hrw.org/legacy/reports/1997/russwmn/Russwmn3.htm

The brutality will indeed pass on if it is not seen as a problem, indeed if it's seen as an integral part of the culture.

@notimagain, you're right; the KH's are only repositioned for matters of great urgency. That's why American doctrine is to observe combatant bases to do vehicle counts during regular flyovers, typically two or three times a week. When the space shuttle was still flying, one of its military missions was replenishing the hydrazine thruster fuel on the KHs. I've no idea what, if anything, they can do now in that regard.

As the KH's got higher resolution digital cameras, they expanded the field of view, so it's not quite the same "looking through a drinking straw" situation we had with the early marks. I think that some geosynchronous satellites provide imaging but at a much lower resolution because of the high orbits. It's probably still adequate for counting parked combat vehicles.

Agreed, so much of the problem in Russia (and countries like it) is the lack of adequate mental health care and treatment for the effects of trauma.

In other news Yulia Navalnaya's tribute to her husband is really moving:

https://x.com/yulia_navalnaya/status/1763553407690788881?s=20

I know you're having an important conversation about trauma and I'll read it, but I'm just dropping in to say how immensely, incredibly moved I am to see the crowds at Alexei Navalny's funeral. Extraordinary. I wish them all peace and blessings and democracy, god knows they deserve it. 💔
And fuck Putin while I'm at it. Him, I wish he'd just hurry up and drop dead.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Following his visits to Albania and Saudi Arabia, Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine had signed defense agreements that provide for the provision of artillery and the establishment of joint weapons production with partners.

🇫🇷French President Emanuel Macron said that all his statements about Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine - including the possibility of sending Western troops, which caused a resonance - were carefully thought out.
Macron's words provoked a negative reaction from the governments of the allied countries, whose leaders were quick to assure that they would not send troops.

🇦🇲🇦🇿 Zelensky's visit to Armenia and Azerbaijan will not take place due to Baku's decision, Radar Armenia reports https://www.radar.am/hy/news/politics-2618512001/
The reason for the cancellation is not specified.

Ukrainian pilots are already practicing target strikes on F-16s, said Ihnat, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force. According to Ihnat, the training process is ongoing, and the pilots are practicing tactical techniques.

At a meeting with Dresden residents, Olaf Scholz gave another reason https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/02/29/7444424/index.amp not to transfer long-range Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine. The chancellor emphasized that if Germany were to supply the Taurus, it would have to be directly involved in the launch of the missiles, and "I think that is impossible," Scholz said.

🇬🇧 UK government privately urges https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-01/russia-ukraine-war-uk-pushing-germany-to-send-taurus-missiles?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_medium=social&utm_content=business&utm_source=twitter Germany to provide Kyiv with long-range Taurus missiles - Bloomberg.
In particular, London proposed an exchange agreement under which the UK would supply Kyiv with more of its own Storm Shadow missiles, and Germany would provide the UK with its missiles to replace them.
“Scholz’s behavior has showed that as far as the security of Europe goes he is the wrong man, in the wrong job, at the wrong time,” former Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told the Evening Standard newspaper on Thursday. [well that's telling it like it is!]

The Ministry of Defense demonstrated the work of the Ukrainian Air Force in February in X (Twitter).

The chants of ‘no to war’ at the funeral and other ceremonies are so moving, and not insignificant!

On a very much individual basis, it's clearly the case that some people who were abused as children go on to commit abuse against their own children. The interesting thing is people who were abused as children who go on to take active steps not to abuse their children. It seems that it is possible on an individual level for this blight to be combatted, and you'd think it should be possible on a large scale too.

Germany might serve as an example: the behaviour of the Nazis, and of the German army, before and during WWII was barbaric by most standards. But the nation mostly seems to have managed, in the nearly eighty years since the end of that war, to put that brutalisation aside and behave really quite well overall.

And we know there are good people in Russia, even if the ones in charge are utterly awful.

Yes the bravery of the crowds is just so wonderful to see. They know how much they are risking, but there they stand and make themselves heard.
Similarly I heard some interviews earlier with women in Iran saying that change will come.
I feel really choked up today. Weeping for them all.

I'm watching from a couple of hours ago, at the bit with the open coffin at the cemetery with people filing past the coffin and paying their respects and a considerable number of them kissing him.

I wish the whole of the Russian population could have seen this. I have no idea really what proportion of the population can access it or even know it's happening today.

Germany might serve as an example: the behaviour of the Nazis, and of the German army, before and during WWII was barbaric by most standards. But the nation mostly seems to have managed, in the nearly eighty years since the end of that war, to put that brutalisation aside and behave really quite well overall.

I asked my German partner about this and he says Germany was defeated on its own ground and it had to examine itself very deeply and what it had done. No country / culture likes to do that. I suspect it takes intense pressure for it to happen.

Russia would need to be willing to be willing to examine itself and so far it rather notably isn't. I suspect some individuals are, surely many if we see Navalny's funeral, but as a society no. Partly because it's a police state.

Who knows what it would take for Russia to be willing to do that, to pay reparations and to genuinely change.

The Germans after WW2 are absolutely fascinating and as a nation should be so proud of how far they’ve come in the years since.

Again it’s an oversimplification but the rise of the Nazis and Nazi ideology is at least partially routed in Hitler and his party’s ability to take advantage of the state of the country and national trauma in the wake of WW1. The anti-semitism itself took route because the population were actively looking for a people to blame for the country’s ills and Hitler gave it to them. Not unlike what we see Putin doing when he blames the West for everything that’s wrong in Russia.

As we know now there were many good and brave men and women in Germany doing their absolute best to secure a better future, I have no doubt history will one day show there is the same in Russia.

The difference of course is nuclear weapons which make a resounding defeat nearly impossible.

All of the above said my heart is still with Ukraine, I still think the Ukrainian population have shown exactly how a traumatised people can and should behave. I do think so much of the overt bravery stems from Zelensky and his people in the first few days of the war. Their bravery is a lesson for us all. 🇺🇦

@MissConductUS

I think that some geosynchronous satellites provide imaging but at a much lower resolution because of the high orbits. It's probably still adequate for counting parked combat vehicles.

No idea TBH..geo-synchronous is up/or out at 42000 km, so what's imaging is really possible from up there I guess is very much need to know though the Hubble images give a clue as to what's possible (we now know there was some cross over between the Hubble and Keyhole optical systems...)

That thought brings us back to maybe something that got missed in my earlier reply but you alluded to it in your flyover comment:

Folks might not be aware that you can't park or dwell a satellite at low altitude over e.g. Ukraine watching the scene 24/7, the physics doesn't allow it....the imaging satellites such as Keyhole and commercial imagers rush around in Low Earth orbit travelling horizontally at 8 km/second (5 miles/second) and they will get only maybe one, possibly two fleeting optimal passes over a site of interest in any 24 hour period...