Ukraine Invasion: Part 47

[MagicFox]

Welcome to thread 47. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

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A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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It feels to me like testing the waters to see how Moscow reacts in terms of rhetoric. I also wonder if its about showing the US that Europe is doing it's bit.

Now that inflation is back on the table after 30 years that coincided with the peace dividend, western nations running large deficits are starting to realise that real and deep spending cuts are inevitable. I am hopeful that some of this rhetoric is groundwork, not just for protecting defence budgets, but to sow the seeds of increases in defence spending which is where they must now go.

In the UK, Hunt’s budget next week is likely to be scaled back in terms of expected tax cuts. The ONS and IFS have said tax cuts need to be approached in conjunction with a spending review. That needs to accommodate a new era in defence spending and capital allocation.

People like Rees-Mogg calling for inheritance tax cuts, on a tax that affect only 4% of death estates, are dangerous.

@notimagain I gather what was notable about Macron's comments was that he's moved from adamantly against any troops to a softer position, iirc.

First time I've heard this suggested: Finlandisation of Ukraine? responsiblestatecraft.org/finland-ukraine/

Reports on Twitter solovyev killed in a drone strike in Ukraine. Can't believe this is true - why would he even be there? But will update if confirmed

Having read that, I really don’t know how I feel about it. It doesn’t truly address the Ukrainian desire to join NATO, and a neutral stance wouldn’t have a great deal of validity given Putin’s multiple and varied reasons for attacking Ukraine.

I know, I'm not sure either. At the same time, I can't imagine nato membership is realistic. EU, yea. nato partner, yes. I think full NATO membership might be one of the things used to compromise with when we get to negotiations

It might be worth reading up on the Quincy Institute to get a feel for their view of the world

https://quincyinst.org/

Good point

What was often overlooked at the time was just how well Finlandization worked out for the people of Finland, who managed to stay free and outside of the various Cold War crises. Perhaps it is not a coincidence that today Finns consistently rank among the world’s happiest people.

What bullshit that is. Finlandization was a necessary evil, it wasn't something that worked well (as in was positive) and certainly did not contribute to Finns being the world's "happiest" people.

Well he really would be no loss!

https://news.sky.com/story/head-of-armed-forces-plays-down-conscription-fears-and-says-uk-not-on-the-cusp-of-war-13082342

I see that Twitter is suggesting that Likud has emphatically come off the fence.
https://twitter.com/Tendar

Been hearing mutterings of it - although at the moment the Israeli press is so full of the municipal elections held today - they were delayed from the end of October for obvious reasons, that I am getting this from outsiders on twitter. And it won't be getting much attention in Israel itself at the moment, between those elections and Gaza/Lebanon. I wonder if they have new inside information. Although I initially thought that while clearly Russia benefitted from what Hamas did, it wasn't actually involved, but maybe the intelligence services now have other information.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-26-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Sweden will join NATO following Hungary’s formal approval of Sweden’s accession bid on February 26.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin signed two decrees on February 26 that officially re-establish the Moscow and Leningrad Military Districts, codifying major Russian military restructuring and reform efforts.
• The formal transfer of regions previously under the responsibility of the Northern Fleet is likely part of a wider Russian effort to re-establish military district commands as the primary headquarters for the Russian ground forces while reassigning naval assets to the Russian Navy, as ISW previously reported.
• The re-creation of the MMD and LMD supports the parallel objectives of consolidating control over Russian operations in Ukraine in the short-to-medium term and preparing for a potential future large-scale conventional war against NATO in the long term.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on February 25 that Russia is preparing a new offensive that will start in late May or summer 2024, consistent with ISW’s assessment that Russian forces have regained the theater-wide initiative and will be able to pursue offensive operations when and where they choose as long as they hold the initiative.
• Chief of the Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov is continuing a recent campaign to engage with Russian military personnel following the Russian capture of Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast and reportedly visited a command post of the 58th Combined Arms Army (CAA) in Ukraine. [isn't he dead? guess not]
• Over 20 heads of state, including 15 European Union (EU) leaders met in Paris on February 26 to discuss ramping up ammunition supplies to Ukraine.
• Germany announced a new military aid package to Ukraine on February 26.
• Transnistrian sources reportedly told Russian independent outlet Verstka that Transnistria, a pro-Russian breakaway region of Moldova, is not planning to ask to join Russia during the Congress of Deputies in Tiraspol on February 28.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed gains near Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka amid continued positional engagements along the entire frontline.
• Russia reportedly imported almost 450 million euros (about $488 million) worth of sanctioned “sensitive” European goods, including weapons technology, between January and September 2023.

Good for him, glad of this. But what does "in any traditional sense" mean?

Also, new FT article on Russian nuclear doctrine (though this has a distinct propagandist ring to it) : on.ft.com/3SYtRJT

I can't remember if i said, I've signed up to the FT so if anybody ever needs a share token for it let me know :-)

Don’t take this the wrong way as I do know what you mean but honestly I think you’re reading too much into it in terms of that wording around conscription. To my mind he’s trying to leave no wiggle room for the papers to suggest conscription is coming.

Thanks Jelly, point taken well :-)

Its so easy to start seeing hidden messages everywhere isn't it! I definitely find I'm having to check myself constantly.

Yes it's hard to stop critical thinking going rogue in the chaos!

Sometimes it feels very confusing. Some of the media is just awful, too.

Sometimes the misery of what's happening and the blazing frustration of Russia taking more ground due to the lack of US aid is too much.

I take the point that the EU absolutely needs to be more self-reliant but for the US to decide that in the middle of an unexpected war is not good timing.

Watching the slow advance of Russia and the sad, grieving posts on Twitter from (clearly genuine) people who have lost cousins, fathers, brothers is just too much.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

The European Parliament voted to approve the 50 billion euro ($54 billion) aid package to Ukraine, known as the Ukraine Facility, as part of the EU budget on Feb. 27.
The package provides funding to Ukraine from 2024 to 2027. https://kyivindependent.com/european-parliament-approves-ukraine-facility/

https://kyivindependent.com/vsquare-kremlin-leaks-secret-files-reveal-how-putin-pre-rigged-his-reelection/

⚡️South Korea: Pyongyang sent nearly 7 thousand ammunition containers to Russia. https://kyivindependent.com/south-korea-pyongyang-sent-nearly-7-thousand-ammunition-containers-to-russia/

Intense fighting is taking place in the Bakhmut sector in Donetsk Oblast, as Russian forces are attempting to advance toward nearby Chasiv Yar, Eastern Group of Forces spokesperson Illia Yevlash said on air on Feb. 27. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-reports-heavy-battles-in-bakhmut-direction-as-russia-pulls-in-reserves/

Tens of thousands of people gathered in Warsaw on Feb. 27 to join the Polish farmers' protest against Ukrainian agricultural imports and EU environmental policies.https://kyivindependent.com/warsaw-farmer-protest/

⚡️Warsaw eyes https://kyivindependent.com/warsaw-warns-on-potential-expansion-of-embargo-on-ukrainian-goods/ imposing embargo on additional Ukrainian goods.

⚡️ Zelensky arrives in Saudi Arabia https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-arrives-in-saudi-arabia-to-meet-crown-prince/ for talks with crown prince.

⚡️Military: Ukraine withdraws https://kyivindependent.com/military-ukraine-withdraws-from-stepne-and-severne-villages-near-avdiivka/ from Stepove and Severne villages near Avdiivka.

Guest Opinion: The UK needs to up its cyber defence as Russia’s war continues https://kyivindependent.com/opinion-the-uk-needs-to-up-its-cyber-defense-as-russias-war-continues/
As one of the leading contributors of military aid to Ukraine, the U.K. now ranks as the third most frequently targeted country for cyber attacks, trailing only behind the U.S. and Ukraine.

⚡️ National Resistance Center: Ukrainian partisans blow up Putin's party office https://kyivindependent.com/national-resistance-center-putins-party-hq-in-occupied-nova-kakhovka-blown-up/ in occupied Nova Kahkovka.

⚡️ Air Force: Russia has not used A-50 aircraft for days.https://kyivindependent.com/air-force-russia-has-not-used-a-50-plane-for-days-after-2nd-downing/

Latvia has extended visa restrictions for Russian citizens until March 2025, the Latvian Foreign Ministry announced on Feb. 27. https://kyivindependent.com/latvia-entry-ban-extended/

⚡️Lithuania to require <a class="break-all" href="https://kyivindependent.com/lithuania-to-screen-18-000-belarusians-on-views-invasion/kyivindependent.com/lithuania-to-screen-18-000-belarusians-on-views-invasion" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://kyivindependent.com/lithuania-to-screen-18-000-belarusians-on-views-invasion/ 18,000 Belarusians to indicate view on Russian invasion of Ukraine.

⚡️FT: Leaked files reveal https://kyivindependent.com/ft-leaked-files-russia-criteria-nuclear-strike/ Russian military's criteria for nuclear strike.
Leaked military documents outline Russia's doctrine for tactical nuclear weapons use, including the minimum criteria for using tactical nuclear weapons, the Financial Times reported on Feb. 28.

A new U.S. sanctions package against Russia may threaten Russian oil exports to India, a major source of funding for its invasion of Ukraine, Reuters reported on Feb. 28. https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-new-sanctions-threaten-russian-oil-sales-to-india/

⚡️ SBU: Antonov company officials face https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-antonov-company-officials-could-face-15-years-of-imprisonment-in-case-of-mriya-aircraft-destruction/ 15 years for obstructing defense of Hostomel airport.
The former director of the Antonov State Enterprise, Serhii Bychkov, and the head of the Aviation Security Department, Oleksandr Netosov, face 15 years in prison for allegedly obstructing the country's defense, Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) reported on Feb. 27.

⚡️ Air Force: Ukraine downs 2nd Russian Su-34 aircraft https://kyivindependent.com/air-force-ukraine-downs-2nd-russian-su-34-aircraft-in-single-day/ in single day.

Synevo medical laboratory chain says State Bureau of Investigation seized its main Ukrainian office. https://kyivindependent.com/synevo-medical-laboratory-chain-says-state-bureau-of-investigation-seized-its-main-ukrainian-office/
Synevo is part of the Sweden-based European medical holding Medicover, present in 11 countries, with Ukraine being one of its largest markets. Synevo has been operating in Ukraine since 2007, performing millions of blood tests for Ukrainians per year.

⚡️Biden meets https://kyivindependent.com/biden-meets-with-congressional-leaders-to-discuss-government-funding-including-ukraine-aid-package/ Congress leaders to discuss government funding, Ukraine aid package.
"I think the consequence of inaction every day in Ukraine is dire. I’ve been speaking to some of our G7 partners, and they’re very concerned," U.S. President Joe Biden said.

⚡️Danish PM criticizes https://kyivindependent.com/danish-pm-criticizes-europes-naivety-in-confronting-russias-aggression/ Europe’s ‘naivety’ in confronting Russia’s aggression.
Europe must spend more on defense to deter Russia, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said in an interview with Financial Times on Feb. 27. She called Europe "naive" for not doing it sooner.

⚡️US Treasury Secretary urges https://kyivindependent.com/us-treasury-secretary-urges-world-leaders-to-transfer-frozen-russian-assets-to-ukraine/ world leaders to transfer frozen Russian assets to Ukraine.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦 ragnarbjartur.bsky.social

⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - FEB 28, 2024
■ Increased strikes as well as engagements
■ Casualties above 7-day avg, equipment slightly below
■ 2 x Su-34 fighter jets, double-digit tank losses
■ Feb 2024: 3rd in casualties & equipment losses, record month for strikes

oops

Lithuania to require https://kyivindependent.com/lithuania-to-screen-18-000-belarusians-on-views-invasion/ 18,000 Belarusians to indicate view on Russian invasion of Ukraine.

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

EU countries have reached an agreement to procure $1.5 billion worth of shells for Ukraine, reports Bloomberg.

Russia's total four-week oil exports have surged to their highest level in nearly four months, reaching $1.73 billion per week, reports Bloomberg. The four-week average of supplies has exceeded Moscow's promised export figure by approximately 190,000 barrels per day.

Zelenskyy arrived in Albania late on Tuesday evening ahead of the summit with the Western Balkan states.

🇦🇱🇺🇦 Zelenskyy and Prime Minister of Albania Edi Rama signed the Treaty on Friendship and Cooperation between the two countries.

🇵🇱 Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski said that the EU should restore pre-war trade restrictions on Ukrainian food imports to avoid erosion of support for the war-ravaged country

Polish police detained Ukrainian journalists near the Belarusian border.
According to Mykhailo Tkach, while Polish farmers are blocking the Ukrainian-Polish border, the Ukrainian Pravda team decided to film a report on the transit of products between Poland, Russia, and Belarus. The situation was resolved only after publicity and the intervention of the Ukrainian Embassy in Poland. The journalists are currently talking to lawyers.

The Netherlands will allocate more than €100 million to finance the supply of hundreds of thousands of ammunition that the Czech Republic has found for Ukraine.

🇨🇳 China's special representative Li Hui will visit Russia, Ukraine and EU countries in the spring to hold a new round of negotiations on, as the Chinese Foreign Ministry said, "solving the Ukrainian crisis"

Prime Minister of Hungary, Viktor Orbán, stated during a press conference following a meeting in Prague with his counterparts from Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic, that Hungary harbors reservations about sharing a border with Russia. This sentiment is rooted in Hungary's historical recollections of its past experiences with the Soviet Union.

LP singer's concert canceled in Lithuania due to video in hoodie with Russian flag.
The day before, the American singer LP posted a video thanking her Russian fans for the hoodie with the Russian flag.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

After a meeting with other congressional leaders and President Joe Biden at the White House, U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Republican, said https://www.c-span.org/video/?533877-101/speaker-johnson-speaks-reporters-meeting-president-biden** he continues to prioritize border security
"When I came here today, I wanted to express what I think is an obvious truth: we need to take care of America's needs first. And first and foremost, we need to take care of our open border," - he emphasized.

Viktor Orban refused to stand for a minute of silence in memory of Alexei Navalny. The Hungarian prime minister called https://www.barrons.com/news/hungary-s-orban-ruling-mps-snub-call-to-commemorate-navalny-4257821f?fbclid=IwAR3YC0fRQc3aG8ic2FoNs--aBkaBERkI2WwGHJhRqonVRwLEIH5DSOgqzPg him a chauvinist for his remarks about Georgians.

Russian troops shelled Sumy oblast – two police officers were killed and four wounded (double-tap operation)

🇨🇿 The prime ministers of Slovakia and Hungary were met in Prague with a protest with posters reading "Fico, go home to Russia," "Fico + Orban are cowardly Putin's henchmen," and more.

John Healey on what Labour would do for UK defence. I'll be voting Labour - I've been desperate to hear sensible plans on defence spending and investment: twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1vAGRvLmZVrGl