Ukraine Invasion: Part 47

[MagicFox]

Welcome to thread 47. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

I don't think the armed forces, UKones at least, are interested in conscription....I think as far as the UK goes and many other countries it would soak up too much in the way of cash and resources to be cost effective.

As for what's in the media I do think great care needs to be taken...just to re-iterate what was in my pp the right of centre press in the UK like the idea of conscription because it plays into the idea of getting feral kids under control, "teaching them a bit of discipline" etc etc,

I'd also be wary of anything that comes out of the mouth of retired senior officers/officials.....once retired they are out of the loop, especially when it comes to intelligence matters, but they have a retirement to fund.

Often they comment just to top up their pensions and some of them will say anything for the sake of a nice appearance fee or by getting the "likes" on SM.

For that reason and others I don't look at reddit and only go to Twitter if I'm directed to a link...

It's difficult with Twitter etc. I do feel a bit insane when I'm on it. I try to limit myself to really good analysts and I come across a lot of great stuff to share that way. But it's a real double edged sword. And I felt a lot happier when I was avoiding it but....it really is great for info. It's just sometimes difficult to sift it

Good piece on the US and alliance commitments : www.worldpoliticsreview.com/us-allies-trump-nato/

"... rather than Trump bucking the trend, it is the U.S. alliance system that has been bucking the general trend of unreliable alliances and has been doing so for the past eight decades—in part, perhaps, because the U.S. has never actually been called upon to make good on its commitments... That doesn’t make Trump’s hostility to alliances right. But those calling on the U.S. to continue its alliance system are essentially hoping the U.S. can continue to defy a historical record that is not on their side."

You all have looked into it in more detail than me, but the tone of the language from the leaders seemed different from before. It didn't seem just like alarmism to me but a serious warning.

I haven't seen any serious worries locally about conscription. I don't know what it's like in France and Germany etc. I know one of the Eastern European countries is bringing it back, can't remember which offhand.

Is it possible the panic in the UK is due to the media hyping it up, like they hyped up the bad sides of EU membership? It seems kinda impossible to me that the politicans could say anything other than soothing noises without the media all going crazy - it gives them something to get their teeth into.

Whether it's panic mongering or not, I think that a serious investment into defense is a bloody good idea. Essential.

I have mixed feelings about conscription but it's not all bad for the people involved. The German system (choice of military or civil service) worked, as far as I'm aware. It actually broadened people's skill sets too. Take the point that it would soak up a lot of money though.

Again, the UK is the world's sixth biggest economy. The money should be there!

Well it is an election year and nothing gets folk out and voting like a good bit of war rhetoric…

@DancesWithDucks

You all have looked into it in more detail than me, but the tone of the language from the leaders seemed different from before. It didn't seem just like alarmism to me but a serious warning.

It may be a different tone but I don't see that as being down to a significant change in the long term threat to western Europe. What I think is happening is NATO chiefs are perhaps hinting certain countries should stop trying to kid their voters that they can still tap into the peace dividend (remember that?).

TBH I'm not sensing anything being said now that couldn't have been said in the 80s..there was a very immediate threat to western Europe ( I can remember one or two interesting briefings at work) and in some ways it was worse back then because the Soviet Armies and their allies would have had a start line on the Inner German Border...

Lots of stuff that went on back in the day simply wasn't reported or not considered worthy of reporting.

I have mixed feelings about conscription but it's not all bad for the people involved. The German system (choice of military or civil service) worked, as far as I'm aware. It actually broadened people's skill sets too. Take the point that it would soak up a lot of money though.

I'm pretty happy with how conscription works in Finland, helps with health and fitness, teaches skills, and really helps with networking. Would cost far too much and be too complex to implement in bigger countries though.

we do have access to so much info now don't we compared to then. I wonder which scenario was better! I talk all the time to my family about the current threat situation and none of them have connected it to the 80s - I honestly don't know if they were aware of the threat then

@notimagain I don't doubt you are right about the threat level in the 80's - I heard one or two stories from a military person I was close to. But the situation seems more volatile now because there is no status quo any more - the situation is developing fast in the last two years. Until a new status quo steadies into place, it seems possible (imho) that things might spiral out of control unexpectedly.

They may very well not, too - Putin is a survivor above all else - but there are signs. The weakness of the will to stand up to him among leaders plus the tone of the language of the military leaders plus the overwhelming swing in Russia towards military production plus the indoctrination of the population that they are in an existential war with the West. Pistorius is a current serving Defense minister in Germany and he's fierce, but not stupid. And the language coming out of Eastern European countries - the leaders are genuinely alarmed, and it doesn't seem like alarmism for its own sake.

"I can remember one or two interesting briefings at work" sounds like a fascinating and scary story!

@MagicFox we do have access to so much info now don't we compared to then.

Im glad we have access to information but I don't think we have been given the tools to know how to handle it. No one's fault, things have just developed so fast. But the bizarre lizardman theories, the anti-vaxxers, the use of SM to sway peoples' thoughts and beliefs - we needed and need much more education in critical thinking and how to handle the flood of info.

Exactly why we need more arts and humanities investment. Courses that teach critical thinking and critical analysis of content (including creative content) are being hacked at. They're important.

Very, yes.

This might not be easy reading, but I'd like to gently point out that the panic over conscription and War Is Coming Right Now is (as far as Im aware) a UK based hysteria.

This is a UK based site and thread, but the overall picture is wider than the UK.

Other lands within Europe are (as far as I'm aware, certainly here) taking a much less panicked approach and sensible leaders are still saying that the chances of Russia taking military action against NATO countries are far greater than we realised.

Regarding the UK, given the panic I don't see how the politicans could give out firmer information without the media creating an absolute shit-show from it.

Get the media to behave responsibly, then maybe the politicians would have a greater chance for a sensible reaction from the population.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Hungary approves https://kyivindependent.com/hungary-approves-swedens-nato-accession/ Sweden's NATO accession.

Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi is developing two versions of the war plan in case Kyiv receives U.S. aid, and if it does not, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview to CNN published on Feb. 26. https://kyivindependent.com/syrskyi-drawing-up-two-war-plans-contingent-on-us-aid-zelensky-says/

The U.S. Army has been forced to use its own funding to support the training of Ukrainian troops, as Congress has so far failed to pass additional aid, the Voice of America (VoA) reported on Feb. 27. https://kyivindependent.com/us-military-using-own-funding-to-train-ukrainian-soldiers/ U.S. military officials told the VoA that if nothing changes, the U.S. Army in Europe and Africa may run out of resources "for everything," including the support for Ukraine and training and operations with NATO partners, by summer.

⚡️Scholz again rules out delivery https://kyivindependent.com/scholz-again-rules-out-germanys-delivery-of-long-range-taurus-missiles/ of long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine.

⚡️Macron announces https://kyivindependent.com/macron-announces-coalition-to-send-kyiv-long-range-missiles/ coalition to send Kyiv long-range missiles.
France and other allies of Ukraine will "create a coalition for deep strikes and therefore medium- and long-range missiles and bombs," French President Emmanuel Macron announced on Feb. 26.

⚡️France, Netherlands back Czech plan to buy ammunition https://kyivindependent.com/france-netherlands-back-czech-plan-to-buy-ammunition-for-ukraine-outside-eu/ for Ukraine outside EU.

U.S. President Joe Biden's December 2023 executive order to tighten restrictions on the financial backers of Russia's war has decreased the flow of funds to third-party countries, Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo said in an interview with Reuters published on Feb. 26. https://kyivindependent.com/us-treasury-says-threat-to-sanction-3rd-country-banks-has-impacted-russian-funding-flows/

⚡️Bloomberg: At least $488 million in sanctioned https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-at-least-488-million-in-sanctioned-goods-entered-russia-from-eu-in-2023/ goods entered Russia from EU in 2023. The volume of trade in those unspecified goods between the European Union and Russia has declined since the outbreak of the all-out war, but exports of the same goods from European countries to third countries have surged, according to the EU’s internal assessments. [and those third countries then export them to Russia]

French President Emmanuel Macron said on Feb. 26 that the possibility of sending Western troops on the ground in Ukraine is not "ruled out" in the future, following discussions among European leaders as Russia's full-scale invasion entered its third year. https://kyivindependent.com/macron-doesnt-rule-out-possibility-of-western-troops-in-ukraine/

⚡️Germany sends https://kyivindependent.com/germany-sends-shells-drones-other-aid-in-latest-aid-package-to-ukraine/ shells, drones, other aid in latest aid package to Ukraine.
Germany has handed over 14,000 155 mm shells, ten Vector reconnaissance drones with spare parts, and other aid in their latest delivery of military aid to Ukraine, the German government said on Feb. 26.
The tranche also included four Wisent 1 demining tanks, three mobile, remote controlled, and protected mine clearing systems, material for explosive ordnance disposal as well as 250 more explosive tool kits.

The Kremlin uses state funding and appointment of loyalists to the Russian Red Cross (RRC) to mold it into a propaganda tool while violating its core principles of neutrality and independence, a joint investigation by a team of journalists published on Vsquare on Feb. 27 reveals. https://kyivindependent.com/media-investigation-kremlin-uses-russian-red-cross-as-propaganda-tool/

⚡️ Air Force: Ukraine downs Russian Su-34 aircraft. https://kyivindependent.com/air-force-ukraine-downs-russian-su-34-aircraft/

⚡️ Poll: 44% of Ukrainians believe https://kyivindependent.com/poll-44-of-ukrainians-believe-west-tired/ West tired of supporting Ukraine.

⚡️Zelensky: Trump https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-trump-will-be-against-americans-if-he-supports-russia-over-ukraine/ will be 'against Americans' if he supports Russia over Ukraine.

Prosecutors in the Russian city of Yekaterinburg are seeking a six-year prison term for local activist Yarolsav Shirshikov over comments he made on Telegram criticizing the late pro-war blogger Vladlen Tatarsky, Russian media reported on Feb. 26. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-court-asks-for-6-year-jail-term-for-activists-social-media-comments-on-death-of-propagandist-tatarsky/

⚡️ Russian court sentences human rights campaigner Oleg Orlov https://kyivindependent.com/russian-court-sentences-human-rights-campaigner-oleg-orlov-to-2-5-years-in-prison/ to 2.5 years in prison. The criminal case against Orlov was launched in 2023 after the human rights advocate published a translation of a French article called "They wanted fascism. They got it" on his Facebook.
The piece sharply criticized Russia's war against Ukraine and accused dictator Vladimir Putin's regime of leading Russia toward fascism.

Ragnar Gudmundsson

WAR IN #UKRAINE - FEB 27, 2024
■ Casualties & equipment losses below 7-day average
■ More combat engagements but strikes on both sides below average
■ Reported artillery losses reach 10k, thereof 10% visually confirmed

notimagain
that idea [conscription] seems mainly to come from retired senior officers in the media trying to maintain their media profile

I would have thought anyone who had actually been a senior officer in the forces wouldn't be all that keen on the idea of conscription because they would have to consider the difficulties of actually dealing with conscripts. Or would they be so ga-ga after retirement that they'd forgotten about the problems that discipline can present even when everyone there is a volunteer?

I wonder how much drive for increased defence spending is coming from national pride in our services and historical examples where a large armed services was an existential necessity?

I was watching a piece on the news about D day anniversaries and you could see we as nation have a deep cultural tie to our armed services and still a sense that these may be needed in a significant way.

In reality we have to look to the US and especially the nuclear bedrock as the defence of last resort to ensure geopolitical stability in this era. I think it has jarred national pride in the UK to realise this fact and we would like to say militarily we are still major player on the world stage as we were historically.

We need the US and so any form of divide and conquer strategy to divide Europe from the US needs to be met in terms of an information war.

The danger is in future the Baltic states may be invaded by Russia and we need to present unambiguous NATO unity to prevent this . The level of Russian aggression may only be limited by concerns from Russia of an overwhelming NATO response including the full mighty of the US joint services

I think there's been much more panic from other European governments especially Sweden, Denmark and Germany

Yes, but are the US reliable allies? We'll only find out when called upon. As Paul Poast points out in that article I posted earlier, the call hasn't actually been tested.

Also, thanks to shitty Brexit, we are likely to have to accept that we are in the pocket of the US and reliant on them for trade agreements that are less good than what we had in the EU. Brexit has finally killed any hope of autonomy for Britain

@AskingQuestionsAllTheTime

I would have thought anyone who had actually been a senior officer in the forces wouldn't be all that keen on the idea of conscription because they would have to consider the difficulties of actually dealing with conscripts. Or would they be so ga-ga after retirement that they'd forgotten about the problems that discipline can present even when everyone there is a volunteer?

You're right, and I'm sure many retired senior officers agree with your POV but when it comes to saying something controversial and maybe picking up a few hundred quid..............................

TBH my biggest gripe is those senior officers who said nothing about shortage of manpower and other resources during their time in the services and then suddenly become very critical of HMG the minute they retire.......

I see certainly Germany's assessment as a sensible assessment of the situation. Pistorius is not alarmist, but he does point out risks he sees and he has an eye for them that others don't.

Mainly I thought that the Governments were not panicking. They're vocalising rational risk assessments. The impression I have is that the media in the UK and quite possibley other countries, and some people are.

TBH my biggest gripe is those senior officers who said nothing about shortage of manpower and other resources during their time in the services and then suddenly become very critical of HMG the minute they retire.......

were they gagged at the time?

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

On March 1, Polish farmers are planning to stage a protest at a checkpoint on the border with Lithuania. They intend to halt and inspect all vehicles capable of transporting Ukrainian grain or other agricultural products, as stated by co-organizer Karolis Pechinskins to LRT.

The European Commission has urged Ukraine to adopt the stance of European farmers by implementing a system for exporting grain outside the EU, stated European Commissioner for Agriculture Janusz Wojciechowski during a press conference following the meeting of EU agriculture ministers.
The European Commissioner also emphasized the need for Ukrainian "partners" to comprehend the challenges faced by farmers, as no market can absorb such a significant surge in supplies. He noted that Russia's actions have displaced Ukrainian products from traditional markets in countries such as China, Egypt, and India, leading to an influx of Ukrainian grain into the EU and subsequently destabilizing the agricultural market.

A freight train bound for Gdańsk experienced an incident near the Kotomiej railway station in Poland, where unknown individuals dumped Ukrainian corn from its carriages. This incident marks the most significant damage to Ukrainian grain since the onset of farmers' protests. A representative from the security company responsible for transport safety, Bilevsky, reported that most of the spilled corn has been collected, but approximately 30 tons remain scattered on the slope near the track. The corn spilled in Kotomez was originally destined for transportation from Ukraine to Morocco.

Germany has provided Ukraine with a comprehensive aid package, comprising:

▫️14,000 rounds of 155mm caliber ammunition
▫️Four WISENT 1 demining machines along with additional equipment for the disposal of explosive devices
▫️Three mobile, remotely controlled demining systems with enhanced protection
▫️250 sets of tools for handling explosive materials
▫️10 reconnaissance drones, along with spare parts, of the Vector model
▫️22 anti-drone sensors and jammers
▫️12 Satcom satellite communication terminals
▫️Four vehicles designated for border protection

France will provide the Armed Forces with 250,000 shock fragmentation drones by the end of 2024, announced French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu in an interview with the Journal du Dimanche.
"These drones will be equipped with fragmentation explosive devices and artificial intelligence. They will operate autonomously, identifying and targeting Russian infantry before executing aerial detonations," Lecornu stated.

Ukraine and Norway have commenced negotiations on a security agreement.

NATO and three countries have responded to France's proposal to send troops to Ukraine.
The Prime Minister of Sweden, Ulf Kristersson, stated that "Ukraine does not need this."
Deputy Minister of Defense of Poland, Cezary Tomczyk, clarified that the country "does not have such a project or idea."
Prime Minister of the Czech Republic, Petr Fiala, affirmed that "the Czech Republic is not going to send troops to Ukraine," with Defense Minister Yana Chernokhova echoing that she was unaware of any such initiative.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg concluded that the Alliance also has no plans to send its troops to Ukraine. [so, the expected resounding No to other European countries sending troops to Ukraine]

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇵🇱Poland is utilizing 30 tons of Ukrainian corn out of the 180 tons that were dumped by unknown persons on the tracks in Kotomierz near Bydgoszcz

🇩🇰 Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said https://www.ft.com/content/cfbb9311-74fb-411e-b029-f5145785c332 that Europe must avoid the mistakes of the 1930s and step up and expand its defense industry to deter Russia. "I see a more aggressive Russia in all aspects, not only in Ukraine. And I think we have to ask ourselves: is Ukraine the final destination for Russia? Or is it just a part of what they want to achieve by building a Greater Russia again?" she said.

After the downing of the second Russian A-50 aircraft in the Sea of Azov on February 23, Russia has not used such aircraft for several days, Air Force spokesman Ignat

Activists of the Yellow Ribbon movement raised another Ukrainian flag on the top of Gora Angar-Burun in occupied Crimea https://t.me/liveukraine_media/18560

About 700 residents remained in occupied Avdiivka. Before the war, 30 thousand people lived there

Two Russians get out of car and destroy symbols after Ukraine solidarity rally in Edinburgh, UK https://t.me/liveukraine_media/18568

A photo of the first American Abrams tank damaged near Avdiivka appeared

Having worked in diplomacy and related areas for years I know how many people will have poured over the wording of a No.10 statement. This from No10 is interesting:

"No plans for large scale deployment of troops" - this is not the same as no plans for deployment of troops.

Well spotted...I think similar care needs to be applied to what President Macron actually said recently:

https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/brussels-playbook/macron-floats-sending-troops-to-ukraine-vows-to-do-whatever-it-takes/

"BOOTS ON THE GROUND? Monday’s meeting yielded “no consensus on sending troops on the ground” to Ukraine, Macron said — at least not officially. But, he insisted, “anything is possible if it helps us achieve our goal” and “nothing is ruled out.”