Ukraine Invasion: Part 47

[MagicFox]

Welcome to thread 47. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

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Transcript here: policyexchange.org.uk/events/a-new-era-for-uk-defence-with-labour/

There was a time when politicians had principles and stuck by them, even when it got them sacked:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keith_Speed

Remember that British forces had been in Ukraine since 2014 before they pulled out when the invasion happened. Likewise, despite the west not really getting involved as ISIS swept across the Middle East, special forces operations were still conducted.

Tho

Sorry pressed send by accident. Thought this was an interesting piece on preparing in Foreign Affairs (if I'm posting too many articles let me know and I'll calm down): archive.is/2024.02.27-225224/foreignpolicy.com/2024/02/27/russia-ukraine-nato-europe-war-scenarios-baltics-poland-suwalki-gap/

Well, this is embarrassing.

A German frigate in the Red Sea opened fire on an American MQ-9 Reaper drone, which reportedly had its IFF transponder turned off. Fair enough, these things happened. Both of the SM2 antiair missiles the frigate fired went submarine hunting as soon as they left the rails. The only reasonable explanation for that would be that the Germans hadn't done the required maintenance and testing on them, as specified by Raytheon. Rocket motors, batteries, etc., all need to be replaced on a regular schedule. So the frigate was completely defenseless from air attack.

It's madness to put a large, expensive asset like a warship and crew in danger to save a few quid on missile maintenance, but there you are.

German Frigate 'Hessen' Mistakenly Targets US Drone Over Red Sea: Military Misfire Raises Concerns

The only reasonable explanation for that would be that the Germans hadn't done the required maintenance and testing on them, as specified by Raytheon.

As this stage I'm not sure it's the only reasonable conclusion TBH...there's plenty of examples over the years (including a few famous cases involving USAF engagements in Vietnam) of perfectly serviceable missiles failing to guide due to a host of reasons that had nothing to with poor maintenance.

You're right; there could be another explanation. The Germans do seem to have terrible luck with them. Hopefully, more details will come out.

I would think that they wouldn't have launched without a radar lock on the target. And having both fail almost immediately is a bit odd.

https://www.businessinsider.com/missile-misfire-damages-deck-of-a-german-navy-frigate-sachsen-2018-6?r=UK&IR=T

There is reportedly one last pot of money at the Pentagon that could be tapped for military aid to Ukraine, but doing so without Congress authorizing its replenishment would impact US military readiness.

Whether Biden could order this as commander-in-chief is a tricky question. Congress has the power of the purse, but Biden commands the military. He also seems reluctant to have the Ukrainians actually win, e.g. the slow drip of weapons systems to Ukraine or supplying them in very small numbers.

Pentagon considering tapping last source of Ukraine military funding as Congress stalls on additional aid

@MissConductUS

I would think that they wouldn't have launched without a radar lock on the target. And having both fail almost immediately is a bit odd.

Ah, you read my mind...that used to be one excuse in the olden days but I'm not sure how much it applies these days...

You are right in that it could well be a mechanical, could well be procedural (finger trouble) in which case it's a training issue..................

Not sure we'll ever know..

I'm glad I'm not the one writing the AAR (after-action report) on this incident. 😄

You're right, we'll probably never know. Let's hope the Germans dig into it to mitigate the risk of this type of failure in the future.

Mitch McConnell to step down as Republican leader in September.

Does anyone know if this will make any difference to the US and to Ukraine?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68428697

@DancesWithDucks, I don't think there will be any impact between now and September. Longer term, it depends on who replaces him.

Edited to clarify that he's not leaving the Senate until his term is up in 2026. He will resign from the leadership post in September, so he'll still be there as a strong supporter of Ukraine.

Huh, okay, thanks.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-27-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces are attempting to exploit tactical opportunities offered by the Russian seizure of Avdiivka and appear to be maintaining a relatively high tempo of offensive operations aimed at pushing as far as possible in the Avdiivka area before Ukrainian forces establish more cohesive and harder-to-penetrate defensive lines in the area.
• Russian forces are likely attempting to create an operational maneuver force for the exploitation of recent Russian advances in the Avdiivka direction.
• The Russian command likely hopes that the reorganization of command structures will establish more cohesive Russian grouping of forces throughout the theater in Ukraine.
• Recent developments in Transnistria, the pro-Russian breakaway region of Moldova, are unlikely to pose a military threat to Ukraine and will more likely impact Moldova’s European Union (EU) integration prospects. ISW is amending its warning forecast in light of continued Transnistrian officials’ statements that the upcoming Congress of Transnistrian Deputies will discuss Moldovan economic policies, likely related to changes to Moldova’s Customs Code that went into effect on January 1, 2024.
• Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu continues to highlight recent Russian tactical successes in Ukraine as substantial battlefield victories for political purposes ahead of the upcoming Russian presidential election. Shoigu additionally highlighted Russia’s Central and Eastern Military Districts (CMD and EMD) to posture against supposed anti-Russian activity in Central Asia and the Indo-Pacific.
• Ukrainian forces have reportedly shot down two Russian Su-34s on February 27, the tenth downed Russian military aircraft within roughly as many days.
• Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) reported on February 27 that the ongoing Russian information campaign to demoralize Ukrainian society will intensify between March and May 2024.
• Russia likely tested an element of its Sovereign Internet on February 27, likely in an effort to strengthen control over individual aspects of the Russian information space.
• Russian forces advanced west of Avdiivka amid continued positional engagements across the theater.
• A Ukrainian official warned that Russia seeks to ramp up force generation efforts in occupied Ukraine following the formal integration of occupied and claimed Ukrainian territories into the Russian Southern Military District (SMD).
• Russian authorities are reportedly systematizing the adoption of deported Ukrainian children in Russia.

Here's some background from Politico on the three Senators who are vying to replace him. If I had to guess, I'd say it will be John Thune.

The insider’s guide to the McConnell succession race

ty

European Policy Centre outlook paper, "Europe in the world in 2024: From voting to geopolitics"
Ricardo Borges de Castro (ed.)
Associate Director, European Policy Centre

https://epc.eu/content/PDF/2024/2024OutlookkPaperv8.pdf

Ben Wallace, "defence needs to be a general election issue" : archive.is/2024.02.28-223017/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/02/28/ukraine-war-uk-aid-ben-wallace-defence-spending-nato/

Ben Wallace, "defence needs to be a general election issue"

I totally agree with this. I have written to my MP and the local opposition to express very clearly that defence spending - on the right things - need to exponentially improve and be open and transparent. I am saying it is my key election issue and I am asking of my Conservative MP how can we have got to this under a Conservative government.

I urge everyone to do the same. They will not hear what is being said on these threads and raising awareness with MPs may have a better impact.

Ah I remember the days we used to get ourselves tied in knots at even the hint that Vlad might speak publicly. Now, for me at least, it barely solicits a nod. Think I'll wait for the unbiased coverage of this latest speech to come out.

I'm listening now

As am I. The term word salad springs to mind.

Mark Galeotti is live tweeting it :-)

Imagine having to sit through this crap 😂 I can at least work away on more interesting things in the background. I keep flicking back to the live stream on BBC and they all look bored to tears!