Ukraine Invasion: Part 47

[MagicFox]

Welcome to thread 47. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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I think her presence indicates that CPAC is absolutely desperate for speakers, and have got down as far as k- or even n-listers in their search for someone, anyone, to fill fifteen minutes for them.

@DancesWithDucks Everything I'm seeing says the A-50 came down over Rostov. There's video of it shooting off flares followed by a huge fireball as it hits the ground.
Local social media is suggesting there was a 2nd aircraft down, not confirmed.

Russia is saying it was their own air defence. It came down 220km from Ukrainian held territory so maybe they're right.

Source Denys Davydov and United24 on telegram

I don't know if the link will work if you don't have telegram

https://t.me/pilotblog/10126?single

https://t.me/pilotblog/10127?single

Well that isn't going to do the Russian war effort much good. How many A50U's do the have now, d'you remember? If my hazy memory serves me right, there were 6 -8 A50U's of which one was shot down a few weeks ago, one was (minorly?) damaged in Belarus and its unknown how many of the rest are operational?

Truss is an absolute embarrassment with more front than Brighton. I don’t know how she has the nerve to do this.

Can't get the Telegram links to work directly but the videos embedded in this article seem to play OK.

I have to say if it was friendly fire it takes a really special type of foul up to shoot down one of your on Command and Control aircraft well inside friendly territory...it's usually the fast movers near the front line that get taken out that manner.

https://www.twz.com/air/another-one-of-russias-prized-a-50-radar-planes-shot-down-ukraine-claims

Thr Russians can’t possibly believe that they lost two command and control aircraft to friendly fire. It would be like Putin and Shogu both getting shot accidentally by their FSB guards at the same time. They are incredibly high value targets and their flight profile isn’t even slightly threatening to anyone.

They just don’t want to admit to their pilots and crew that they can and likely will be shot down by the Ukrainians.

@notimagain yes thank you, the same videos

@MissConductUS something has changed.

These A-50s will have been flying since the start of the full scale invasion. To lose one at some point is maybe inevitable but to lose two, two years in, in close order tells a different story.

It's interesting that Russia's first response is to claim incompetence because the alternative is worse.

I suspect what has changed is that the Ukrainians have managed to conceal a Patriot missile battery near the Russian border.

It's a rubbish choice the Russians have from a propaganda standpoint. They have to admit to gross incompetence or that they're getting their arse kicked over their own territory.

Someone suggested that Ukrainian Special Ops had managed to sneak a patriot deep behind enemy lines. Which sounds like a fairy tale to me !

Given what's involved you can't sneak much if any of the components of a Patriot battery anywhere...

Probably the least fanciful theory of many doing the rounds this AM is that if it was the Ukrainians that shot down the A-50 it was possibly done using a modified S-200 SAM fired from home territory.

The missile has the range, and being radar guided the A-50 crew (and/or systems) may have been aware of it's arrival for quite some time before impact, which might explain the prolonged deploying of flares. If triggered many self defence systems fire flares and chaff bundles simultaneously to counter for both IR and radar guidance.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-200_missile_system

It's interesting that Russia's first response is to claim incompetence because the alternative is worse.

Yes, that was my thought. How are the Russians in a place where claiming they shot down their own plane is better than admitting the Ukrainians did it?

@notimagain interesting theory about the modified S-200 SAM. When you say known 'for some time', how many minutes could that be? Do you think it would have taken more than one missile to do the job?

@blueshoes

"When you say known 'for some time', how many minutes could that be?"

It's almost impossible to quantify the time scale without knowing a lot more (firing range, what guidance was used, any Ukrainian modifications to equipment or technique to make it all more sneaky).

Probably the earliest warning the A-50 crew/systems could have got is when any fire control radar associated with the missile had locked up and the earliest that might have happened before missile launch, in which case there would have been multiple tens of seconds of warnings.

"Do you think it would have taken more than one missile to do the job?"

One missile working properly, especially one the warhead size of an S-200, should do the job. That said it not unknown to fire a couple if it's a really high priority target, firing opportunity is limited and/or the missile system has a low reliability rate.

The clip I saw, one flare was destroyed in a moment's fire, so there probably were two missiles at least

@notimagain, appreciate the explanation and insight.

Well it’s anniversary day guys. Not one I ever wished we would see 😭🇺🇦

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-23-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces shot down a Russian A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft on the night of February 23 – the second such aircraft shot down in 2024.
• Russian ultranationalists are increasingly attributing the shootdown of Russian aircraft to Russian rather than Ukrainian air defenses.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukrainian forces are planning future counteroffensive operations, although delays in Western security assistance will likely continue to generate uncertainty and constraints on these operations.
• Ukraine-based open-source organization Frontelligence Insight reported on February 22 that Russian forces are storing missiles and ammunition in previously abandoned facilities near the Russo-Ukrainian border and in occupied Ukraine to shorten and bolster Russian logistics lines.
• Ukrainian officials stated that the probability of a Russian ground attack on Ukraine from Transnistria, a pro-Russian breakaway region of Moldova, is low following reports that Transnistrian authorities may call for or organize a referendum on annexation to Russia on February 28.
• Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that Armenia “essentially” froze its participation in the Russia-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) against the backdrop of deteriorating Russian-Armenian relations.
• The US, United Kingdom (UK), Canada, and the European Union (EU) announced new sanctions packages aimed at constraining Russia’s war effort in Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces made confirmed advances near Kreminna, and Russian forces made confirmed advances near Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Donetsk City.
• Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Deputy Chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi stated on February 23 that international sanctions are degrading the quality of Russian missiles amid continued Russian efforts to increase missile production.
• Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) provided additional details on February 22 about the forced deportation of Ukrainian children from Ukraine to Belarus.

On an entirely different note, Im very glad the NL are sending this but .. but ... the looks of the thing

The Netherlands announced the transfer of the VERA-NG radar to Ukraine.VERA-NG provides an advanced and modern passive surveillance system designed to detect, locate, identify and track air, ground and sea targets.

Oh look it's a giant... ahem, yes, quite.

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ FT: Europe exploring $1.5 billion backup plan to purchase shells https://kyivindependent.com/ft-europe-exploring-1-5-billion-backup-plan-to-purchase-shells-outside-of-eu-for-ukraine/ outside of EU for Ukraine.

⚡️Air Force: Ukraine shoots down https://kyivindependent.com/russian-a50-plane-shot-down-over-azov-sea-military-says/ another Russian A-50 aircraft over Azov Sea.

⚡️UN records over 10,500 civilian deaths https://kyivindependent.com/un-records-over-10-500-civilian-deaths-in-ukraine-since-february-2022/ in Ukraine since February 2022. [Excluding the occupied areas]

As Western sanctions designed to cripple Russian energy exports barely slow them down, the Kremlin continues to make enough money to keep its war against Ukraine going indefinitely, just by selling oil to China and India. https://kyivindependent.com/sanctions-for-show-russian-oil-sales-to-china-india-single-main-driver-of-ukraine-invasion/

⚡️UK announces $311 million aid package https://kyivindependent.com/uk-announces-311-million-aid-package-to-replenish-ukraines-artillery-supplies/ to replenish Ukraine's artillery supplies.

The White House's strategy to avoid escalation by setting limits on military supplies for Ukraine does not work, as Russian President Vladimir Putin would "escalate today if he could," Kurt Volker, a former U.S. special representative for Ukraine, told the Kyiv Independent during a press conference on Feb. 23. https://kyivindependent.com/ex-us-special-representative-to-ukraine-putin-would-escalate-if-he-could/

⚡️Hungary signs deal https://kyivindependent.com/hungary-signs-deal-to-buy-swedish-fighter-jets-amid-preparations-to-join-nato/ to buy Swedish fighter jets amid preparations to approve Sweden's NATO bid.

⚡️ Zelensky, Danish PM meet in Lviv kyivindependent.com/zelensky-danish-pm-visit-lviv/

⚡️ US Senate Democratic leader arrives in Lviv https://kyivindependent.com/us-senate-democratic-leader-arrives-in-lviv-for-talks-with-zelensky/ for talks with Zelensky.

⚡️Biden announces https://kyivindependent.com/biden-announces-new-package-of-sanctions-against-russia/ new package of sanctions against Russia.

⚡️RFE/RL: Hungary blocks https://kyivindependent.com/rfe-rl-hungary-blocks-shared-eu-statement-to-commemorate-2nd-anniversary-of-full-scale-war/ shared EU statement to commemorate 2nd anniversary of full-scale war.

Ukrainian and Western officials gathered in Berlin on Feb. 23 to discuss how to assist Ukraine with investigating Russian war crimes and bring perpetrators to justice, Ukrainian media outlet Ukrinform reported. https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-western-officials-reportedly-gather-in-berlin-for-war-crimes-conference/

⚡️ Ukrainian Railways: Agricultural goods again dumped from train https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-railways-report-another-incident-of-grain-being-dumped-from-train-at-polish-border-crossing/ at Polish border.

⚡️Infrastructure Ministry: Ukrainian farmers export https://kyivindependent.com/farmers-export-over-90-via-ports/ over 90% of agricultural products via ports.

⚡️ Ukraine, Denmark finalize long-term security agreement. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-denmark-finalize-long-term-security-agreement/

Private equity firm Horizon Capital has attracted $350 million to support Ukrainian businesses through the Horizon Capital Growth Fund IV (HCGF), which was launched in 2022 with a target of raising $250 million, the company announced on Feb. 23. https://kyivindependent.com/horizon-capital-raises-350-million-to-support-ukrainian-businesses/

⚡️Ukrainian crowdfunding campaign raises https://kyivindependent.com/crowdfunding-campaign-raises-7-8/ $7.8 million for sea drone fleet in record 36 hours.

⚡️Navalny's wife: Putin's refusal to hand over Navalny's body is 'Satanism https://kyivindependent.com/navalnys-wife-putins-refusal-to-hand-over-navalnys-body-is-satanism/
On Feb. 23, Russian investigators said that, if Navalny's mother did not agree to a secret funeral within three hours, they would bury him at the penal colony without her agreement, according to Navalny's team.

Ecuador's President Daniel Noboa confirmed to CNN Espanol that he rejected the previous decision of his government to send the U.S. old military equipment for use in Ukraine following a backlash from Russia. https://kyivindependent.com/cnn-ecuadorian-president-rejects-sending-us-military-supplies-bound-for-ukraine/

Ukraine's parliament approved a bill on Feb. 23 that changes the conditions for demobilization of conscripts, lawmaker Yaroslav Zhelezniak said. https://kyivindependent.com/parliament-approves-bill-on-conditions-for-demobilization-of-conscripts/

Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi thanked Ukraine's allies on Feb. 24 for their ongoing military aid, emphasizing that "every shell, every tank, every armored vehicle is first and foremost about saving the lives of Ukrainian soldiers." https://kyivindependent.com/syrskyi-military-aid-is-first-and-foremost-about-saving-the-lives-of-ukrainian-soldiers/

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦 AT ragnarbjartur.bsky.social
·
2h
⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - FEB 24, 2024
■ Daily losses down but weekly equipment & artillery losses at a record level
■ 2nd A-50 spy plane loss of 2024
■ Oryx: 65 🇷🇺 20 🇺🇦 added to records; 30-day ratio at 3.0x
■ KIU: +46 officers; 5.3 per day in last 4 weeks

Well that should fuck the Russians nicely 😂