Ukraine Invasion: Part 47

[MagicFox]

Welcome to thread 47. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

President Zelenskyy stated that in 2024, Ukraine plans not only to defend itself but also to prepare for a new counteroffensive.
He emphasized that defense remains the top priority and hinted at surprises for the Russians, particularly in the Black Sea region. Zelenskyy also underscored the importance of the southern and eastern fronts, where Russian forces are concentrated.

Russia is capable of independently producing 400-500 Shahed-type kamikaze attack drones per month, said Andriy Kulchytskyi, head of a department at Kyiv Scientific Research Institute of Forensic Expertise (KSRIFE), which studies Russian missile, artillery and drones.

The EU has approved its 13th package of sanctions against Russia, targeting 106 individuals and 88 legal entities.
The entities and individuals listed are primarily associated with the military and defense sectors. They are implicated in activities such as the supply of weapons from the DPRK to Russia, as well as the deportation and concealment of Ukrainian children.

US President Joe Biden has announced new sanctions against Russia.
More than 500 new sanctions will apply to:
▫️individuals connected to Navalny’s imprisonment;
▫️Russia’s financial sector;
▫️defense industrial base;
▫️procurement networks;
▫️sanctions evaders across multiple continents.
“We are also imposing new export restrictions on nearly 100 entities for providing backdoor support for Russia’s war machine.
We are taking action to further reduce Russia’s energy revenues,” Biden said in a statement published on the White House website.

Russia procures tank parts from Japan and Taiwan via China — Nikkei Asia.
In China, a person connected to the government of Belarus set up a company, and the Russian arms maker has continued to import parts via the company. The information reveals that sanctions aimed at Russia's munitions industry are not functioning effectively, due to trades through a third country.
US and British authorities are aware of the situation and are expected to tighten the sanctions.

The number of supporters of expanding military aid to Ukraine has increased in Germany.
62% of Germans support increasing military support for Ukraine, according to a Politbarometer poll. In January, the number was 51%

Approximately 500 tons of grain were destroyed by enemy shelling in the Kramatorsk district.

Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal highlighted in his address to the Polish audience that over the past 5 months, Ukraine has refrained from selling grain, corn, sunflower seeds, and rapeseed to the Polish market. [which means all these protests and destruction is NOT to do with selling these items within Poland. Again, something else is going on]

«Chechevitsa» (Operation Lentil) was one of the most inhuman deportations committed by the Soviet Union.
Thousands of Chechen and Ingush people were forcibly relocated to remote areas of the country. Many of them died during relocation, some of them were killed by Soviet soldiers. For decades, Moscow has kept committing crimes against enslaved nations without any punishment.

Iran has refuted allegations of supplying Russia with ballistic missiles. The Iranian mission to CNN stated that, despite the absence of current international restrictions or bans on the sale of ballistic missiles, Iran considers itself morally obligated to abstain from weapon transactions during the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

Europe and the World Need Ukraine to Prevail by Dmytro Kuleba & Joseph Borrell

KYIV – February 24, 2022, when Russia marched hundreds of thousands of troops into Ukraine, marked the beginning of a major geopolitical earthquake. For two years, Europe has been living with the grim reality of the continent’s largest war of aggression since World War II, and with widespread, horrifying atrocities.
What Russia is doing is a classic example of nineteenth-century-style imperial and colonial aggression. Ukraine is enduring what many other countries have cruelly suffered in the past. For Russia, this war has never been about Ukraine’s neutrality, NATO enlargement, protecting Russian-speakers, or any other fabricated pretexts.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly claimed that Ukraine does not exist as a nation and that Ukrainian identity is artificial. The war is solely about annihilating an independent country, conquering land, and re-establishing dominance over a people that decided to be masters of their own destiny. Russia’s imperial ambition is doubtless familiar to many nations around the world that were previously subject to colonial rule and oppression.
The consequences of the Russian aggression against Ukraine have been felt far beyond Europe. The war has affected food security and energy prices, and it has been accompanied by massive disinformation and political destabilization campaigns. These shockwaves have been truly global. Putin is ushering in an increasingly transactional world. He has deployed the Wagner Group in Africa, destabilized other countries through coups, and engaged in economic coercion through the threat of hunger – offering grain that he himself made scarce by systematically burning fields in Ukraine, targeting storage infrastructure, and blocking important maritime export routes.
The war and its consequences thus concern every country. Should Russia prevail, it would send a very dangerous message that “might makes right.” Every aggressive power around the world would be tempted to follow in Russia’s footsteps. If aggression ultimately pays, why wouldn’t all those with territorial claims against their neighbors act on them? This is why it is in many Asian, African, and Latin American countries’ interest that Ukraine wins the war.
Ultimately, this war is not about “the West against the rest.” Supporting Ukraine is not “pro-Western.” It is about rejecting war and terror. It is about standing for the principle of international relations based on mutual respect, and supporting Ukrainians’ right to security and liberty. Ukraine and the European Union share a view of international relations in the twenty-first century that is exactly opposed to that of Putin’s Russia. Our vision is based on international law, respect, and mutual benefit, instead of coercion, bribery, and fear.
Nobody has a greater interest than we do in swiftly ending this war and bringing peace back to our continent. To achieve this, Ukraine has proposed a ten-point peace formula – which the EU fully supports – that not only envisions the end of hostilities but also includes proposals to strengthen food security, nuclear safety, environmental protection, energy security, international justice, human rights, and respect for the UN Charter.
This formula is the only serious peace proposal on the table, and we are calling on all countries committed to peace to join us in putting it into action. Ukraine is currently organizing a Global Peace Summit in Switzerland, and the EU is actively supporting this process. Leaders from around the world will work toward an agreement on a common vision for a just peace in Ukraine based on the UN Charter. Russia will then be presented with this consolidated position representing the global majority, leaving it no other choice but to engage in good faith.
As the war enters its third year, our message is one of resilience in the face of aggression and terror. We cannot and will not allow aggression to be rewarded in the twenty-first century; instead, we will mobilize against it. The only way to achieve a just peace is to double down on support for Ukraine. The EU has done exactly that in recent months, and it is set to increase assistance even further in 2024.
Our common goal is to ensure that Ukraine can turn the tide of the war in its favor so that a just peace can be reached as soon as possible. The world’s support is crucial for achieving this result. It is in everyone’s interest that international law be upheld, and that cooperation is the highest priority. There must not be a return to the dark past of military aggression, imperialism, and colonialism – neither in Europe nor in any other region.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights
A group of Ukrainian ministers led by the Prime Minister arrived at the border with Poland, but no one met with them. Polish officials did not come.
▫️Earlier, Polish Prime Minister Tusk spoke about a meeting between the parties in Warsaw, which is scheduled for March 28. He did not plan to go to the border.

The DIU clarified that the modernized A-50U aircraft was shot down over the Sea of Azov and crashed near the city of Yeysk. The cost of such an aircraft is $350 million.

Great statement by David Cameron at the UN Security Council. I've been impressed with him lately: www.gov.uk/government/speeches/respect-for-sovereignty-lies-at-the-heart-of-the-international-system-uk-foreign-secretary-at-the-un-security-council

Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal highlighted in his address to the Polish audience that over the past 5 months, Ukraine has refrained from selling grain, corn, sunflower seeds, and rapeseed to the Polish market. [which means all these protests and destruction is NOT to do with selling these items within Poland. Again, something else is going on]

Well the leader of these protests certainly has some dodgy connections. Frankly the Polish police need to get involved.

And they've used pro putin slogans havent they? I smell Russian meddling

And one individual who claims to be 'a normal farmer' is on a Polish database as belonging to the FSB.

Tusk supports Ukraine very strongly but I wonder how he's going to root this malice out.

I think it’s a difficult one, lots of these farmers are genuine with genuine concerns and that shouldn’t be ignored. It’s a classic Russian tactic to exploit real problems for their own gain.

Yes indeed.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/08fj7kHuWhp2xQUedKcLni?si=Kna87XKDRxqBIY84_G_S_A

Really interesting and knowledgeable episode of The Deep State Radio Podcast series: We’re All Going To Die. About the recent news of Russian plans/capabilities related to nuclear weapons in space.

Dont be put off by the name, it’s just dark humour!

It's about time that we started sanctioning the likes of China and India for trading with the aggressor.

Deep State Radio have been doing reruns of their older episodes, just listened to their one from 24 Feb 2022 and it’s really reminded my just how far we’ve come. They talk about Ukraine falling in hours perhaps days, 2022 Munich Security Conference being Zelensky’s last one as leader, whether or not the Russians will choose to occupy all of Ukraine and state as fact that the West will provide no more than money (maybe) for humanitarian stuff.

It has really made me give myself a shake and remind myself that where we are is a victory in itself. I firmly believe Ukraine will win. It will be bloody but they will 🇺🇦

@notimagain, I thought you in particular would enjoy this from the WSJ about the provision of F-16s to Ukraine.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-ghost-of-kyiv-and-his-quest-for-the-f-16-ukraine-war-russia-military-aid-20866c45?st=dmammk4hladxxnv&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Love the optimism @Igotjelly, I'm going to try to steal some!

On another cheerful note, another cracking russia rebuttal at the UN Security Council, this time from the polish foreign minister (he always sounds really in control and crystal clear I think): x.com/vtchakarova/status/1761625239761588358?s=46&t=ZRiOqYBPJdwGCarjKNzCeQ

New Lawrence Freedman piece:

A War Putin Still Can’t Win
To Thwart Russia, America Needs a Long-Term Strategy—and Ukraine Needs Long-Range Weapons

archive.is/2024.02.23-054351/www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/war-putin-still-cant-win

Paywalled Mark Galleoti piece that I'll paste here on the two year anniversary. Interesting point here about how dangerous the undermining of the NATO alliance / EU solidarity would be for the west. That's clearly been something Russia has been trying to do for a long time, and we're seeing some success there i think. That's where a lot of energy needs to go.

Two years on, the Ukraine war matters more than ever (Spectator)

There are inevitably voices in the West questioning the value of committing more than £5.5 billion a month in support of the war in Ukraine. It looks for now deadlocked at best, and at worst – in light of the recent Russian capture of Avdiivka – a slow defeat. Yet it is important to realise just how the Ukraine war matters to the world outside that country’s borders, even if perhaps not quite in the ways some would suggest.
There is much overheated talk about a Ukrainian defeat leading to a direct threat to Nato. Some presume that this means the whole country falling to Vladimir Putin and Russian troops drawn up along the Romanian border. However, the whole notions of what a Ukrainian ‘defeat’ means now are as hazy as a ‘victory.’ Furthermore, suggestions that it would only take a few years for Moscow to reconstitute its badly-mauled forces so that it can launch a new war make some very questionable assumptions about Russia’s industrial capacity, its ability to keep spending at a breakneck rate, and Putin’s interest in any such dangerous adventure.
However, if Ukraine falls, or is forced to accept some ugly peace on Moscow’s terms, then this will likely lead to recriminations and masochistic soul-searching with the Nato alliance and the wider ‘Collective West’. This will likely leave it divided and weakened. It will also be much less secure. There may be no evidence that Putin is currently contemplating a real threat to the West, but he (or a successor) might be tempted if, for example, Nato fragmented or lost its deterrent value.
This is also a global issue. Putin is not out to destroy or rewrite the whole international order, but it is under pressure. Western leaders love to preach about their values-based foreign policy, but in the Global South this tends to be greeted with scepticism verging on the derisive. There’s the invasion of Iraq, the invasion and then abandonment of Afghanistan, the willingness to recognise politically-useful kleptocrats and authoritarians. The list of reasons to question our ‘values-based policies’ is as long as it is depressing.
Putin is not out to destroy or rewrite the whole international order, but it is under pressure.
Instead, the West’s real leverage is to a large extent because it is rich and powerful. The ignominious retreat from Afghanistan has already delivered a distinct blow to its credibility. Although China’s Belt and Road Initiative has not proven quite as effective and sustainable a tool of global influence as anticipated, nonetheless Beijing’s efforts to create its own parallel world order cannot help but gain when the West is distracted, humiliated and divided.
Of course, the nature of the future Ukraine will be determined by this war, too – and that is something that matters to more than just Ukrainians. Will this large country become a Russian vassal state, likely triggering a further exodus of millions of refugees? Will it be left an embittered rump state, forced into political and territorial concessions to Moscow, yet torn between hatred of an imperial aggressor to the east and resentment at the Western powers which encouraged it to fight, then abandoned it to its fate?
Or will it become a new, enthusiastic ally, whose energy and innovative spirit have been demonstrated throughout this war? Reintegrating liberated territories, rebuilding a battered country, and finally reforming institutions still undermined by habits of corruption and oligarchic power will not be quick, cheap or easy, but the potential gains are immense.
The outcome of the war will help define Russia’s future. Will the war be its Suez Crisis or Algerian War, the humbling moment when a former great power is forced to come to terms with its diminished status and begin to confront its imperial demons? Or will Putin extract from his misbegotten invasion enough that he can spin as a triumph, reconsolidating his threadbare legitimacy and encouraging him into further adventures?
Of course, the nature of the likely victory or defeat is still unclear. The maximalist goals of each side – a return to pre-2014 borders, security guarantees, reparations and war crimes tribunals for Kyiv, total control over the regions declared annexed and a neutral and neutered rump Ukraine for Moscow – are equally unlikely. The real outcome is going to be somewhere in between – but it still matters greatly quite where it ends up along that terrifyingly broad spectrum.

Yes but no one will call for that here, its all good in Ukraine & especially with the UKs Govt's connections with India.
then there is the amount of western industrial equipment still getting into Russia... how can this be allowed?

Billions pour into Russia's economy with its sales of gas and oil, which the world will need for many years to some, so Russia will have the means to rebuild its military and economy.

No British or USA representation in Kiev yesterday (at the 2nd anniversary of the invasion) just EU and Canadian involvement.

I think this is very telling, all there last year.

I think optimism, to a point, is vital. It’s when hope dies that people like Putin win. Only by believing that the Ukrainians will win can we combat Ukraine fatigue (for what it’s worth I find that phase so icky!)

As jasflowers says, the lack of British representation in Kyiv was embarrassing. I was at the Ukraine vigil in Trafalgar Square yesterday and that too was notably different. Last year it was high profile with big name speakers - Ben Wallace, Helen Mirren, Vadym Prystayko and so forth. The biggest name this time round was John McDonnell. It’s worrying.

Another interview with polish foreign minister Sikorski

Very measured and well spoken

then there is the amount of western industrial equipment still getting into Russia... how can this be allowed

@jasflowers I'd agree with you but there is a giant problem - We can't stop it.

The West does not control Turkiye, Khazakstan, China. Not at all. We can put pressure on Turkiye, but only so far.

Iran has been sanctioned for a very long time and it has developed extensive and very effective ways around the sanctions. When Russia cosied up to Iran, iran passed these techniques on, and Russia then to the other countries.

Many of these electronics are used for washing machines etc, then taken out then used for military purposes. (I wonder if that's why Russian soldiers took so many washing machines early on!).

I imagine it could be stopped if Western manufacuturers put a locator device in and a cutoff override for new devices, but that would take a lot of doing and the political will and it has financial implications.

Sadly, the reality is we don't know how to stop the flow of Western tech into the hostile countries.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

Two years of Russia's full-scale war in Ukraine has resulted in the deaths of 83,000 Russian soldiers, according to a joint study by independent Russian media outlets Meduza and Mediazona, published on Feb. 24. https://kyivindependent.com/mediazona-meduza-83-000-russian-soldiers-killed/

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) were allegedly behind the fire that erupted at the main plant of Russian steelmaker Novolipetsk Steel (NLMK) in Lipetsk on Feb. 24, Ukrainska Pravda reported, citing sources in the military intelligence. https://kyivindependent.com/media-ukraines-security-services-allegedly-behind-attack-on-major-russian-steel-plant/

⚡️Ukrenergo: Backup power line restored https://kyivindependent.com/ukrenergo-backup-power-line-restored-at-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant/ at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.

Trump wins https://kyivindependent.com/trump-wins-republican-primary-in-south-carolina/ South Carolina primary.

⚡️Canada, Italy sign https://kyivindependent.com/italy-canada-sign-security-guarantee-agreement-with-ukraine/ security agreements with Ukraine.

⚡️ Kamyshin: Ukraine's capabilities for 2024 are 6 times higher https://kyivindependent.com/kamyshin-ukraines-capabilities-for-2024-are-6-times-higher-than-2023/ than 2023. Kamyshin added that Ukraine's defense industry also produced three times more in 2023 than it did in 2022.

⚡️Von der Leyen: EU to open https://kyivindependent.com/von-der-leyen-eu-defense-innovation-office-to-be-opened-in-kyiv/ Defense Innovation office in Kyiv.

The European Union’s new 50 billion euro ($54 billion) Ukraine Facility will make its first transfer of 4.5 billion euros ($4.9 billion) to Ukraine in March, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Feb. 24. https://kyivindependent.com/von-der-leyen-first-payment-of-new-eu-aid-program-will-send-ukraine-4-5-bn-euros-in-march/

⚡️Funding delays threaten https://kyivindependent.com/funding-delays-threaten-usaid-projects-for-ukraine/ USAID projects for Ukraine.
The funding delay threatens USAID projects aimed at integrating Ukraine's railways into the European rail network and protecting Ukrainian farmers, among other humanitarian programs

⚡️US philanthropist pledges https://kyivindependent.com/us-philanthropist-pledges-300-million-for-ukraine-in-2024/ $300 million for Ukraine in 2024.
The Howard G. Buffett Foundation has already donated over $500 million in humanitarian assistance to Ukraine since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion. The combined funds exceed the humanitarian aid contributions of the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Canada.

⚡️ Fedorov: Ukraine to produce https://kyivindependent.com/fedorov-ukraine-to-produce-1-million-drones-per-year/ 1 million drones per year.

⚡️Russian prison authorities release https://kyivindependent.com/russian-prison-releases-navalnys-body/ Navalny's body.

Vyacheslav Lebedev, who was chairman of Russia's Supreme Court since December 1991, died in Moscow on Feb. 23, Russian state-controlled media outlet Kommersant reported on Feb. 24. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-supreme-court-head-dies/

⚡️UK will boost humanitarian aid https://kyivindependent.com/uk-will-boost-humanitarian-aid-to-ukraine-by-8-5-million-pounds/ to Ukraine by over $10 million.

⚡️Dutch far-right leader Wilders against https://kyivindependent.com/wilders-against-signing-security-agreement-with-ukraine/ signing security agreement with Ukraine.

Umerov: 'Corruption during war is worse https://kyivindependent.com/umerov-corruption-during-war-is-worse-than-terrorism/ than terrorism.'
"Corruption during war is worse for me than terrorism. There will be no negotiations with those who steal from our soldiers and our society," Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said during the "Ukraine. Year 2024" forum on Feb. 25, as quoted by a Kyiv Independent reporter.

⚡️ Russian attack destroys https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attack-destroys-kostiantynivka-central-station-in-donetsk-oblast/ Kostiantynivka Central Station in Donetsk Oblast.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - FEB 25, 2024
■ Engagements above 7-day average, strikes on both sides below
■ Casualties slightly up between days, equipment losses down
■ Last seven days: Casualties +2%, landbased equipment +23%

Many of these electronics are used for washing machines etc, then taken out then used for military purposes

That's the trouble, we're talking about pretty generic microchips - car manufacturers were buying up washing machines when the post-pandemic shortage happened.

Not a great format and a long read, but an 18 month old article on the subject of western chips/tech in Russian ordnance etc here:

https://static.rusi.org/RUSI-Silicon-Lifeline-final-web.pdf

A fairly typical comment is along the lines of:

"Many semiconductors have multiple applications, meaning that even a shipment featuring the precise type of semiconductor found in a Russian weapons system may have been destined for civilian use.