Ukraine Invasion: Part 44

[MagicFox]

44th thread, all the usual thanks and appreciation

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😴

Oh that was a quick resolution 👏 well done MNHQ 💙💛

It was so quick I didn't see the second one which appeared in the time it took me to report the first

Sad wee vatnik.

Officers of the Russian Navy “leaked” information to Ukraine about the location and activities of their commanders in exchange for monetary rewards,..

True or not announcing the above is a nice bit of Psyops....

There was a case where a Russian armor depot commander was caught selling T-72 engines to the Ukrainians, so it's not without precedent.

That was before the invasion in 2022 though, wasn't it? Iirc? Though after the invasion of Crimea in 2014. If this isn't just that tasty bit of psyops, then some officer(s) literally betrayed their own senior command 's meeting location during active hostilities!

Could it be as simple as for instance a waiter in a restaurant in Sevastapol, chatting to his regular customers, who without even realising it, comment on the big meeting they are going to next week, which then gets passed on to Ukraine?

It was just last April. They were T-90 engines, not T-72 engines though.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/16386

last ~April~ ?! wow heh.

I saw a ref to T72 engines being sold too, and it was T-72s, so there must have been more than one incident.

@jgw1 A lot of that must go on, the waiter scenario, but the implication of this possibly-a-wild-one story is that the officer actually, literally, sold the news of the location and time of the meeting to Ukraine for "enough money to ensure the safety of his family".

The T-72 engines were sold longer ago though, iirc

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️ FT: Russia avoids G7 price cap on most oil exports.
https://kyivindependent.com/ft-russia-avoids-g7-price-gap-on-most-oil-exports/* Russia is growing increasingly less reliant on Western services when shipping out its oil, allowing it to more successfully avoid the $60-per-barrel price cap* set by the Group of Seven (G7), the Financial Times reported on Sept. 25.

⚡️ Military: 34 Russian Black Sea Fleet officers, including commander https://kyivindependent.com/military-russian-black-sea-fleet-commander-33-other-officers-killed-in-sevastopol-strike/ killed in Sevastopol strike, 105 more injured.

⚡️ISW: Russian forces conducted https://kyivindependent.com/isw-russian-forces-conducted-unsuccessful-attacks-near-avdiivka-and-marinka/ unsuccessful attacks near Avdiivka and Marinka.

Russia's 14th Guards Fighter Aviation Regiment was inside a building of the Khalino air field near Kursk at the time it was hit by a drone strike on Sept. 24, Ukrainian media outlet Babel reported, citing a source in Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR). https://kyivindependent.com/media-russian-air-regiment-command-comes-under-drone-attack-near-kursk/

⚡️ Bild: Ukrainian military needs 3 months of training https://kyivindependent.com/bild-ukrainian-military-needs-3-months-of-training-for-taurus-missiles/ for Taurus missiles.

⚡️New US sanctions hit Russian, Chinese companies https://kyivindependent.com/new-us-sanctions-hit-russian-chinese-companies-over-war-involvement/ for their role in supplying drone technology components used in Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Reuters reported on Sept. 25.

⚡️ Russia puts top ICC official Chairman of the International Criminal Court Piotr Hofmanski, his deputy Luz del Carmen Ibanez Carranza, and Judge Bertram Schmitt on wanted list. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-puts-icc-leadership-on-wanted-list/

⚡️Looming US shutdown threatens Ukraine aid https://kyivindependent.com/looming-u-s-shutdown-threatens-ukraine-aid/ The potential U.S. federal government shutdown on Oct. 1 may complicate the delivery of aid packages to Ukraine, according to the State Department.
Many U.S. departments and agencies have plans in place to weather a shutdown, but a disruption would still affect critical missions such as Ukraine aid.

⚡️UN Commission finds https://kyivindependent.com/un-commission-finds-continuing-evidence-of-war-crimes-committed-by-russian-forces/ evidence of war crimes committed by Russian forces.

Polish President Andrzej Duda sees no problem in providing Ukraine with older weapons from Poland's arsenal after they are replaced by modern arms, he said in an interview with Super Express on Sept. 25. https://kyivindependent.com/duda-poland-to-send-ukraine-older-weapons-after-it-replaces-them-with-modern-arms/ [the spat is over]

⚡️US, Ukraine sign memorandum https://kyivindependent.com/us-ukraine-sign-memorandum-on-strengthening-ukrainian-energy-system/ on strengthening Ukrainian energy system. Subject to the availability of funds, the U.S. plans to supply Ukraine with $522 million in energy-related assistance, including $100 million provided on the condition Kyiv makes progress in some energy sector reforms.

⚡️Ukraine's economy grows https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-gdp-growth-surpasses-expectations-increasing-by-19-5-in-the-second-quarter-of-2023/ year-on-year for first time since start of full-scale invasion.
Ukraine’s gross domestic product grew by 19.5% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2023, signaling the economy’s successful adaptation to wartime conditions following last year’s collapse.
The result is higher than the Economy Ministry's forecasted results and "indicates that the economy is adapting to the war," Economy Minister Yuliya Svyridenko said in a statement.

⚡️Lviv mayor: Energy grid fortified https://kyivindependent.com/lviv-mayor-energy-grid-is-fortified-and-prepared-for-winter/ prepared for winter.

An explosion at a crowded fuel depot in Nagorno-Karabakh may have resulted in mass casualties, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty's Armenian service reported on Sept. 25. https://kyivindependent.com/media-fuel-depot-explodes-in-nagorno-karabakh/

The Kyiv Court of Appeals refused to change oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky's detention measure to house arrest and upheld the bail of Hr 3.8 billion ($105 million) https://kyivindependent.com/court-rejects-appeal-against-kolomiskys-detention/

⚡️ Canadian House Speaker apologizes for honoring Nazi unit veteran during Zelensky's visit. “In my remarks following the address of the President of Ukraine, I recognized an individual in the gallery. I have subsequently become aware of more information which causes me to regret my decision to do so,” Rota said in a statement. https://kyivindependent.com/canadas-house-speaker-apologizes-for-honour-ukrainian-who-served-in-nazi-unit/

⚡️ Lawmaker Andrii Ivanchuk dies https://kyivindependent.com/lawmaker-andrii-ivanchuk-dies-at-50/ at 50.

Ragnar Gudmundsson

WAR IN #UKRAINE - SEP 26
■ More strikes, fewer engagements
■ Troop losses below 7-day average, equipment above
■ Record 7-day average of artillery losses
■ Oryx: 7Ru:6Ukr added (9:5 w/corrections)

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-25-2023

Key Takeaways:

• The tactical situation in Verbove remains unclear amid continued Ukrainian offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 25.
• The Ukrainian Special Operations Forces reported on September 25 that a precision Ukrainian strike on the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea, on September 22 killed 34 Russian officers, including BSF Commander Admiral Viktor Sokolov
• Ukrainian forces reportedly struck the Khalino Airfield and a Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) building in Kursk Oblast during a series of drone strikes on September 24.
• Russian forces conducted a series of Shahed-131/136 drone and missile strikes on the night of September 24-25 against Ukrainian port, grain, and military targets.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed on September 25 that US-provided Abrams tanks have arrived in Ukraine. [yes!]
• Russian military officials continue efforts to build out the Russian armed forThe Kremlin and the Armenian government continue to deflect blame onto one another over the surrender of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan amidst deteriorating Armenian-Russian relations.
• Russian forces continued unsuccessful offensive operations near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations near Bakhmut, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast but did not make any confirmed gains.
• Russian officials continue to deport children from occupied Ukraine to Russia.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

🤔 Russian Navy officers "leaked" information about the whereabouts and activities of their commanders to Ukraine in exchange for a monetary reward, the Kyiv Post reports, citing the Atesh guerrilla movement of Ukrainians and Crimean Tatars. [ah okay, that's the source]

🚀 Ukraine manufactures part of its missiles abroad as Russians have been known to hit assembly sites, — Oleksiy Danilov, NSDCU Secretary.
💬 “This is a closed program and no one can say what status it’s in. I can tell you that Russia has hit the place where these missiles were assembled so we have moved a certain part of the production outside our country,” Danilov secretary said in an interview with Spanish ABC.
❕Speaking about long-range weapons for Ukraine, he added that the country would not use ATACMS for strikes on the territory of Russia and that they would be used exclusively for the defense of Ukrainian territories, as there are certain agreements on this issue with partners.

❗️At least 20 people dead following an explosion at Nagorno-Karabakh fuel depot.
The cause of the blast is not immediately clear. Hundreds are currently reported wounded.

Belarus has banned Belarusians from using drones
Any use of civilian drones is only allowed to organizations and legal entities for their "entrepreneurial and professional activities." To do so, they need to obtain a permit from the aviation department of the country's transport ministry.

Russian military tortured some Ukrainian prisoners to death, as reported by Reuters, citing a UN investigation.
The chairman of the Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine, Eric Møse, said that his team had "gathered additional evidence indicating that the use of torture by the Russian military in areas under their control was widespread and systematic".
"In some cases, torture was used with such brutality that it resulted in the death of the victim," Møse emphasized.
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🇩🇪 Germany plans to halve aid to refugees from Ukraine next year, — Reuters
The agency quoted government sources as saying that €1.7 billion will be allocated to support refugees next year, as opposed to the current €3.75 billion support.
Germany hosts more than 1 million refugees from Ukraine.

This is Beryslav in the Kherson region after being hit by four Russian airstrikes.

Sad clip of a clearly traumatized woman hiding in the shower as missile after missile hits Odesa https://t.me/United24media/13950

‘Monument to a Sailor’s Wife’, Odesa’s beloved statue located in the harbour of the city’s Sea Port, stands against ruins following Russia’s aerial attack this morning.

🇱🇻 Latvia threatens fines for "I am Russian" stickers on cars

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Rafael Grossi will remain the IAEA Director General for another term until 2027.

🇵🇱 🇺🇸 The US will provide Poland with a $2 billion loan for defense modernization.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said in a speech in parliament that Budapest would not support Ukraine's membership in NATO until the rights of Hungarians in Zakarpattia are restored.

🇬🇧🇺🇦 The British Ministry of Defense showed how it trains Ukrainian military sappers in Poland. They share the experience gained in Afghanistan, teach them how to detect explosive devices, safely approach them and defuse them. https://t.me/liveukraine_media/14118

In Kherson, a priest of the UOC-MP was selling weapons and ammunition. In September, he sold two Igla anti-aircraft missile systems and three powder charges for a hand-held anti-tank grenade launcher and received $3,000 for it.
The cleric also had two caches with a machine gun, an AK-74 rifle, powder charges, grenades, ammunition of various calibers and bayonet knives.

🤡Kadyrov published a video clip showing his son Adam beating Nikita Zhuravel, accused of setting fire to the Koran. [rumours of Kadyrov's coma or death were sadly mistaken]

Nine UNESCO-protected sites were damaged in the night attack on Odesa.
All the buildings are architectural monuments of national importance.

This is a photo of the Russian terrorist attack in Vinnytsia. Two enemy Kalibr missiles fired from a submarine killed 29 Ukrainians, including three children.
A year has passed and now a number of people who gave these criminal orders have been killed under the rubble of the Russian Black Sea Fleet headquarters.

The weopons dealing priest

oh dear, the Fog of War.

Max Seddon:

|Russia claims Admiral Viktor Sokolov, the commander of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, is apparently not dead, according to this photo released by the MOD today, despite Ukraine’s claims to have killed him last week.

@DancesWithDucks its not at all clear yet. This from Sky

Defence and security analyst Professor Michael Clarke has been offering his thoughts after the Black Sea fleet commander whom Ukraine claims to have killed was among those seemingly at a meeting today.
As detailed in our 12.00 post, Admiral Viktor Sokolov appeared in a video feed showing attendees at the gathering chaired by defence minister Sergei Shoigu.
Clarke says: "We've looked at the video, it's not very clear and it jumps around quite a lot.
"We've located the person on the video who looks most like Sokolov, and it may be him, but it's not a completely clear match.
"It could be Sokolov, looking at previous photographs of him. On the other hand, there's still no proof that this video is really current.
"There's a lot of evidence that Sokolov was in the building that was hit on Friday by a couple of Storm Shadow missiles.
"So it is possible that Sokolov lives. But I think the Russians would have to produce more convincing evidence than this if they want to be taken seriously on this particular issue.
"And it's odd that producing a rather vague video and saying he's here somewhere and leaving it to news organisations like us to try to work out who it might be is less than clear in the message they were trying to send."

@Surplus2requirements glad to read Michael Clarke's view. He is sensible. Guess we have to wait for clearer and more obviously current shots of Sokolov, rather than a blurry WFH video of him.

@blueshoes it does seem odd that Russia wouldn't take the opportunity to clearly and definitively ridicule Ukranian Intelligence

It's entirely possible that they are still recovering bodies from the damaged or collapsed parts of the building.

New thread for when we need it, I'll post again nearer 1k:

Ukraine Invasion: Part 45 www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4906397-ukraine-invasion-part-45

According to Ukrainian intelligence, the Russian Naval officers who sold the intel that allowed the strike on the Black Sea HQ were not getting paid in a timely fashion.

Ukrainian resistance fighters say Russian officers who hadn't been paid by Moscow sold them key intel on the Black Sea Fleet. Missiles then tore through the headquarters.

I doubt we'll ever see any independent confirmation of this, but it has the ring of truth. Russian soldiers have been complaining about spotty or missing pay since the beginning of the war. This may be a deliberate effort to save money, bureaucratic incompetence (military pay is complex and not easy to do during a war), or corrupt skimming of the funds by the chain of command. Or all of the above.

Article on the Nordstrom explosions and the seismologists who measured the 4 explosions.

Contrary to what many claim, no one knows yet who really was responsible. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/sep/26/nord-stream-pipeline-blasts-key-details-revealed-by-scientists

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️ Russia shows alleged footage of Black Sea Fleet commander https://kyivindependent.com/russia-shows-alleged-footage-of-black-sea-fleet-commander-previously-reported-killed/ previously reported killed.

⚡️ Erdogan: Turkey to ratify Sweden's NATO bid https://kyivindependent.com/erdogan-turkey-to-approve-swedens-nato-bid-if-us-approves-f-16-sales-to-ankara/ if US approves F-16 sales to Ankara.

⚡️ Dutch minister: Netherlands to deliver first F-16 jets https://t.me/KyivIndependent_official/24025** to Ukraine in 2024. The minister estimated that the training of Ukrainian pilots on the fourth-generation jets could take six to eight months, which is a shorter period than the usual training of Dutch pilots.

⚡️ Navy: 7 vessels have left Odesa https://kyivindependent.com/navy-7-vessels-have-left-odesa-through-temporary-black-sea-corridor-so-far/ through temporary Black Sea corridor so far.

⚡️ European Commission will represent https://kyivindependent.com/european-commission-will-represent-eu-states-in-wto-on-grain-dispute/ EU states in WTO on grain dispute.
The European Commission will represent Poland, Hungary and Slovakia in the grain dispute with Ukraine at the World Trade Organization, Polish news outlet PAP reported on Sept. 26.
⚡️ BBC: Russia seeks to rejoin UN Human Rights Council. https://kyivindependent.com/media-russia-seeks-to-rejoin-un-human-rights-council/ The news outlet says that Moscow will seek to return to the human rights body for a new three-year term during a vote in October.

⚡️Belarus Foreign Minister: Entering war alongside https://kyivindependent.com/belarus-foreign-minister-entering-war-alongside-russia-hard-to-imagine/ Russia hard to imagine.

⚡️Media: Ukraine hits https://kyivindependent.com/media-ukraine-hits-russian-command-post-near-kherson/ Russian command post near Kherson. Eight officers from Russia's 70th Motorized Rifle Division were killed, and seven more were injured, Hromadske wrote on Sept. 26.

⚡️ Norway to donate $92 million in humanitarian aid https://kyivindependent.com/norway-to-donate-92-million-in-humanitarian-aid-to-ukraine/ to Ukraine.

⚡️ EU Commission names social platform X leading disinformation source.
https://kyivindependent.com/eu-commission-twitter-x-largest-disinformation-source-among-popular-social-platforms/ The social platform X, formerly known as Twitter, is the largest source of misinformation and disinformation among the major online platforms, the EU Commission Vice President Vera Jourova said on Sept. 26.

Navy: Russian missiles contain up to 50 foreign-made parts https://kyivindependent.com/navy-russian-missiles-contain-up-to-50-foreign-made-parts/
Anywhere between 30 and 50 parts within Russian missiles are produced outside of Russia, Navy spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk said during a briefing on Sept. 26.
However, sanctions have meant that Moscow is investing in producing these parts in Russia, the Navy spokesperson said.

⚡️German foreign minister acknowledges https://kyivindependent.com/german-foreign-minister-acknowledges-issues-with-weapons-delivered-to-ukraine/ some of Berlin's weapons are outdated, inoperational. [From what my partner says, the German hardware is in a total mess]

Overcoming setbacks, NATO-trained brigade breaches Surovikin line in Zaporizhzhia Oblast https://kyivindependent.com/overcoming-setbacks-nato-trained-brigade-breaches-surovikin-line-in-zaporizhzhia-oblast/
Formed from scratch a year ago, the 47th Mechanized Brigade, held up as a progressive model of the Ukrainian army of the future, was to lead the push south of Orikhiv, heading straight for the key cities of Tokmak and Melitopol.
The brigade was prepared with the counteroffensive in mind; its soldiers, trained in NATO countries and equipped with superior new Western equipment, were to be the spearhead of the advance here

⚡️ Armenian Health Ministry: 125 killed in Nagorno-Karabakh fuel depot explosion https://kyivindependent.com/armenian-health-ministry-125-killed-in-nagorno-karabakh-fuel-depot-explosion/ .

⚡️ Health Ministry clarifies rules for military registration https://kyivindependent.com/health-ministry-clarifies-new-rules-for-military-registration-of-female-medical-students/ of women with medical education. Women with such backgrounds are still permitted to travel abroad during martial law.

⚡️ Media: Polish investigation concludes Ukrainian air defense missile https://kyivindependent.com/media-polish-investigation-concludes-ukrainian-air-defense-missile-fell-on-polish-territory-last-year/ fell on Polish soil last year.

Admiral Viktor Sokolov

Dutch minister:Netherlands to deliver first F-16 jets ....to Ukraine in 2024. The minister estimated that the training of Ukrainian pilots on the fourth-generation jets could take six to eight months, which is a shorter period than the usual training of Dutch pilots.

....which given the context is how you'd expect it to be.

Any Dutch trainees onto the F-16 these days will almost certainly be relative newbies, straight out of advanced training, so the F-16 will be their first front line fast jet type....they'd be on some form of "full" course

OTOH I'd expect many of the Ukrainian pilots, at least the initial cohorts, to be transitioning from one front line fast jet> to another front line fast jet, so you'd expect a somewhat abbreviated course.

Suggestions from Russian channels that theres an uptick in fighting new Verbove again.