Ukraine Invasion: Part 44

[MagicFox]

44th thread, all the usual thanks and appreciation

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Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Media: UK has back channel for talks with Russia (https://kyivindependent.com/uk-reportedly-has-back-channel-for-talks-with-russia-over-global-security/) over global security.

The discreet meetings have been held over the past 18 months in Vienna and New York as part of back-channel diplomacy to discuss international security, grain shortages, and nuclear safety, according to the report, a British newspaper iNews reported on Sept. 23, citing its diplomatic sources.

The monitoring mission of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has observed previously reported anti-personnel mines at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Rafael Grossi said in a statement on Sept. 23. "The team did not observe any heavy weapons during their walkdowns but confirmed that the previously reported mines remain in place". https://kyivindependent.com/iaea-observes-mines-at-russian-occupied-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-hears-explosions-distance-away/

⚡️Polish Defense Minister: Polish army will be strongest https://kyivindependent.com/polish-defense-minister-polish-army-will-be-strongest-land-force-in-europe/ land force in Europe.
Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak believes that Poland will amass a force of 300,000 soldiers, making it the largest land army in Europe, Polskie Radio reported on Sept. 23.

⚡️ISW: Winter will not end https://kyivindependent.com/isw-winter-will-not-end-the-ukrainian-counteroffensive/ the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said he had an “unplanned meeting” with Sudan’s Sovereign Council Chairman Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, an army general and de-facto ruler of the African country, on Sept. 23. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-discusses-russia-backed-groups-with-sudans-leader-after-reported-ukrainian-attack-on-wagner/

⚡️Budanov responds https://kyivindependent.com/budanov-responds-to-cnn-reports-about-ukrainian-drone-strikes-in-sudan/ to CNN reports about Ukrainian drone strikes in Sudan
"A year ago, I personally openly said that all Russian war criminals who fought, are fighting, or plan to fight against Ukraine will be punished anywhere in the world," Budanov said.

⚡️ Reintegration Minister urges Ukrainians to leave Crimea https://kyivindependent.com/reintegration-minister-calls-on-ukrainians-to-leave-occupied-crimea-until-russias-war-ends/ until liberation.

Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and U.S. Special Representative for Economic Recovery in Ukraine Penny Pritzker had their first online meeting on Sept. 23 to discuss energy, demining, housing restoration, critical infrastructure, and the economy https://kyivindependent.com/shymhal-pritzker-hold-first-meeting/

https://kyivindependent.com/financial-times-us-decided-to-provide-ukraine-with-atacms-ahead-of-zelenskys-visit/
U.S. President Joe Biden has decided to provide Ukraine with long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) before President Volodymyr Zelensky's recent visit to the U.S., the Financial Times reported on Sept. 23, citing sources familiar with the matter.

⚡️ Lavrov claims Moscow open to negotiations, not ceasefire https://kyivindependent.com/lavrov-claims-moscow-open-to-negotiations-not-ceasefire/

⚡️Hungarian official: New sanctions against Russia 'cause https://kyivindependent.com/hungarian-official-new-sanctions-against-russia-cause-more-harm-to-europe/ more harm to Europe'.

⚡️Pope tells countries not to 'play games' https://kyivindependent.com/pope-tells-countries-not-to-play-games-with-ukraine-on-military-aid/ with Ukraine on military aid.

⚡️DeSantis opposes https://kyivindependent.com/desantis-opposes-ukraines-entry-into-nato/ Ukraine's NATO accession.
Ron DeSantis, a leading Republican candidate in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, said in a Sept. 23 podcast he believes that it's not in NATO's best interests to admit Ukraine as a member. “All that would do was add more obligations to us, so if you’re adding more obligations, then what are benefits that we’re getting in return?" he said. [peace and stability in Europe, you dope]

⚡️ Zelensky presents state awards https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-presents-state-awards-to-polish-volunteers/ to Polish volunteers.

⚡️National Resistance Center: Russian strongholds in Kursk Oblast deserted https://kyivindependent.com/national-resistance-center-russian-strongholds-in-kursk-oblast-deserted/

Ragnar Gudmundsson
WAR IN #UKRAINE - SEP 24
■ Few engagements,artillery strikes stay below average
■ Troop & equipment losses below 7-day average
■ Still double-digit artillery, drone & vehicle losses
■ No new visually confirmed losses added by Oryx yesterday

UNITED24 Media Telegram

⛴️ Three more ships are passing through the humanitarian corridor in the Black Sea this week to load in Ukrainian ports, — US Ambassador to Ukraine.
"Despite Russia's withdrawal from the grain initiative, Ukraine continues to make efforts to feed the world."

Russia is "ready for negotiations," but they are not going to cease fire. Lavrov said this at the UN General Assembly.
In addition, the Russian foreign minister said that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's peace formula is allegedly completely unrealizable, and everyone knows it.

Let's explore the 'Profession: Warrior' project.
Today, our guest is one of Ukraine's top snipers from the Special Operations Forces.

Russians dropped explosives from a drone on a 78-year-old resident of Mykolaivka, Kherson region. "As a result of the enemy strike, he lost part of his arm, he also has a chest wound, an open fracture and bleeding," — Governor.

🇫🇷 Mass rallies against police violence and racism took place across France yesterday. In Paris, demonstrators attacked a police car with iron batons. One person was injured.

🇵🇱 President Zelenskyy awarded Polish journalist with an Order of Princess Olga.
Bianka Zalewska has been covering the war since 2014. She also distributed humanitarian aid, helped to transport gravely ill children to Poland, and assisted units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

🤬 Representatives of the International Red Cross in Russia abused us when they came to "visit" us in captivity, — Ukrainian soldier Orest Hrytsiuk in an interview with journalist Yuriy Butusov
According to Hrytsiuk, who was held captive for nine months, when Russian representatives of the ICRC visited the prisoners of war, our defenders were forced to walk and sing songs. At the same time, Red Cross workers filmed it.
"They were laughing. They were clapping us on the shoulder and calling us all kinds of bad names. They were representatives of the International Red Cross," Orest said.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

🇵🇱Poland has prepared transit corridors through which Ukraine will be able to export its grain to countries that need it, - the President of Poland.
However, Warsaw will keep its ban on exports in place because they do not need it.

Occupiers impose military censorship and curfew in the occupied part of Donetsk region
"To introduce military censorship of mail and messages transmitted via telecommunication systems, as well as control over telephone conversations.
A ban on meetings, rallies and demonstrations, marches and picketing, as well as other mass events...as well as a ban on strikes and other methods of stopping or terminating the activities of organizations," Pushilin's "decree" reads.
The so-called "officials" and "state employees" were banned from traveling anywhere other than Russia without permission.

The former head of Roscosmos, Dmitry Rogozin, was made a "senator" of the occupied Zaporizhzhia region.

🇬🇧The UK is going to increase the number of trained Ukrainian soldiers to 30,000 by the end of the year, - the UK Defense Minister.

Zelensky thanked Poland and the entire Polish people: any challenges on our common path are nothing compared to the strength between our people.

Explosions in Kursk, Russia
An administrative building in the city center was attacked by a drone.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-23-2023

Key Takeaways:

• ISW is now prepared to assess that Ukrainian forces have broken through Russian field fortifications west of Verbove in western Zaporizhia Oblast. [hurray]
• Ukrainian forces have not overcome all prepared Russian defensive positions near Verbove.
• Ukrainian forces are deepening their penetration in Zaporizhia Oblast and are assaulting Novoprokopivka – a frontline village 1.5 km immediately south of Robotyne.
• Ukrainian military officials stated that the Ukrainian counteroffensive would continue in the winter.
• The Ukrainian counteroffensive in western Zaporizhia Oblast has likely destroyed the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet).
• A senior Ukrainian official explicitly confirmed that Ukraine’s objective in Bakhmut is to fix Russian forces. Ukraine’s fixing of Russian forces in Bakhmut may be alleviating pressure on the Kupyansk frontline.
• Ukraine’s simultaneous counteroffensives in Bakhmut and southern Ukraine are impeding Russia’s long-term force generation efforts as Russia redeploys its new reserves to defend against Ukrainian advances.
• A Ukrainian intelligence chief stated that the September 22 Ukrainian strike on the Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) Command headquarters in Sevastopol injured senior Russian commanders. [Apparently Ukr timed to missile strike to coincide with a meeting of top Russian brass, aka op 'Crab Trap']
• Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of September 22 to 23.
• Zaporizhia Oblast occupation governor Yevgeny Balitsky appointed former Roscosmos (Russian space agency) head and ultranationalist figure Dmitry Rogozin as a Russian Federation Council senator representing occupied Zaporizhia Oblast
• A Russian insider source argued that the Russian military should reintroduce military officers for political affairs (zampolits) to address the Russian military’s problems with political and ideological commitment– a problem that Russian military thinkers identified in September 2018.
• Disjointed Wagner Group contingents reportedly returning to fight in Ukraine are likely to have a marginal impact on Russian combat capabilities without bringing the full suite of effectiveness Wagner had had as a unitary organization under financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin’s and founder Dmitry Utkin’s leadership.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in western Donetsk Oblast, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast but did not make any confirmed advances on September 23.
• Russian authorities are reportedly embezzling funds from military facilities near the border of Ukraine.
• Russian government programs continue to forcibly deport children in occupied Ukraine to Russia.

Donation time again.

Yea. Definitely

ooh it’s like a game of whack-a-mole!

What's your view on what the scum are doing to Odesa right now!

History is so tidy.

THE NAZI-SOVIET NON-AGGRESSION PACT (THE RIBBENTROP-MOLOTOV PACT) | Imperial War Museums (iwm.org.uk)

Yeah that is a bad look for everybody in the room. Seems like nobody knew at the time, that he fought for the other side. Big oops from the MP who brought him and introduced him

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/25/canadas-house-speaker-apologises-after-praising-ukrainian-veteran-who-fought-for-nazis

Wondered if no one knew. Kinda disastrous look though, the enemies will jump on it as we've seen even on this thread.

Big oops, or deliberate undermining?

Sadly it looks like a Ukrainian military convoy train has been hit while parked in a siding.

Kiev Post article:

x.com/kyivpost/status/1706202217231876347?s=61&t=NaIdJ_hpeHJ7BCXblc3CMg

Western analysts have outlined three factors that need to hold true for Ukraine’s troops to make further progress in the south.

Meanwhile, Russian sources sound more than a bit flustered.

ah shite :(

There won't be any confirmation from Ukraine, its Russian drone footage so possibly fake but ive found this guy to be pretty reliable and careful about what he shares.

There will be losses indeed, good at Ukraine is at keeping a lid on them :/

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️House speaker drops https://kyivindependent.com/house-speaker-mccarthy-drops-plan-to-strip-300m-ukraine-aid-package-from-pentagon-funding-bill/ plan to strip $300 million Ukraine aid package from funding bill.

⚡️Second grain freighter arrives https://kyivindependent.com/second-grain-freighter-taking-experimental-black-sea-route-arrives-in-turkey/ in Turkey after grain deal disruption, France 24 reported on Sept. 24, citing maritime tracking data.

⚡️Ukrainian forces push forward https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-forces-push-forward-near-melitopol/ near Melitopol.

Zelensky, Netanyahu's meeting in New York highlights their differences https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-netanyahu-meet-on-un-general-assembly-sidelines-showing-how-far-they-are-apart/ Their meeting showed that little can be done to align the two countries.

On the evening of Sept. 24, power went out in Russia's Pulkovo Airport and the St. Petersburg district of Shushary, east of the airport. https://kyivindependent.com/power-outage-reported-in-st-petersburg-airport/

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan hinted on Sept. 24 that his country can no longer rely on Russia's protection after the Azerbaijani army quickly defeated ethnic Armenian forces in Azerbaijan's restive Nagorno-Karabakh region. https://kyivindependent.com/armenian-government-says-it-cannot-trust-in-russias-protection-accuses-kremlin-media-of-disinformation-war/ "The recent attacks on Armenia by Azerbaijan allow us to draw an obvious conclusion that the external security systems in which we are involved are not effective from the point of view of state interests and the country's security," he said.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev will meet in Granada, Spain, with the leaders of France, Germany, and the European Council on Oct. 5
https://kyivindependent.com/armenian-azerbaijani-leaders-to-meet-in-spain-oct-5/

A drone struck an administrative building in the Russian city of Kursk on Sept. 24, according to Roman Starovoit, the governor of the eponymous Russian region. https://kyivindependent.com/drone-attacks-kursk-admin-building-only-light-damage-reported/

⚡️Military intelligence: Saboteurs https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-saboteurs-hit-military-targets-in-russian-moscow-kaluga-regions/ hit Russian military targets in Moscow, Kaluga oblasts.
"Unknown saboteurs" attacked military facilities in Russia's Moscow and Kaluga oblasts overnight on Sept. 24, Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) reported.
A tanker truck was allegedly destroyed at a military base in the Naro-Fominsky district of Moscow Oblast, while four vehicles with trailers were destroyed at another base in the city of Kaluga, HUR said, without providing further details.

⚡️National Resistance Center: Occupation forces prepare mobilization https://kyivindependent.com/national-resistance-center-occupation-forces-prepare-mobilization-in-ukraines-south/ in Ukraine's south.
Russian-installed occupation officials are forming a system of military registration of conscripts among the residents of the occupied territories, the Ukrainian military's National Resistance Center reported on Sept. 24.

⚡️BBC: British military bomb disposal teams training Ukrainian engineers to clear minefields https://kyivindependent.com/bbc-british-military-bomb-disposal-teams-training-ukrainian-engineers-to-clear-minefields/

⚡️The Guardian: War crimes dossier to accuse https://kyivindependent.com/the-guardian-war-crimes-dossier-to-accuse-russia-of-deliberately-causing-hunger-in-ukraine/ Russia of using hunger as weapon of war.

⚡️Update: Number of injured https://kyivindependent.com/update-number-of-injured-in-russian-attack-on-kremenchuk-rises-to-55-including-6-children/ in Kremenchuk attack rises to 55, including 6 children

⚡️Odesa port infrastructure damaged https://kyivindependent.com/authorities-russian-attacks-across-ukraine-kill-4-injure-12/ in Russian overnight missile attack, 1 injured.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-24-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Elements of three Russian divisions are actively defending against Ukrainian assaults around the Ukrainian salient in the Orikhiv area in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Ukrainian forces are attacking along three directions within the Orikhiv salient as of September 24.
• Russian sources report that Ukrainian forces broke into Verbove on September 22 and continued attacking the settlement with armored vehicles as of September 24.
• Ukrainian forces are attacking north of Verbove and could isolate the 56th VDV Regiment deployed in Novofedorivka from its sister regiments in the Verbove area according to Russian sources.
• Russian forces continue to expend significant combat power on counterattacking to hold their current positions and appear to be resisting the operationally sound course of action of falling back to prepared defensive positions further south.
• The Russian military command may be ordering these counterattacks to buy time, but it is unclear how the Kremlin intends to use time bought at such a price.
• The Russian sacrifice of combat power to hold every meter may alternatively be intended to support the Kremlin’s informational and hybrid warfare objectives.
• The Russian resistance to ceding ground may also be tied to Russian military commanders’ and officials’ attempts to use the counteroffensive to achieve political goals, or it could result from Putin’s micromanagement.
• Ukrainian forces may be able to achieve an operationally significant breakthrough in the southern frontline if several key assumptions hold [see below].
• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 24.

Ukrainian forces may be able to achieve an operationally significant breakthrough in the southern frontline if several key assumptions hold. A significant Ukrainian success will be more likely if:

1. Russian forces do not have the necessary reserves or combat power to maintain Russian defenses in western Zaporizhia Oblast;
2. Ukrainian forces retain enough combat power to continue pushing after exhausting Russian combat power; and
3. Russian defensive positions behind the current battle area are not as heavily mined or well prepared as the fortifications that Ukrainian forces have breached. This hypothesis is invalid if any of these assumptions are invalidated. There are indicators that these assumptions remain valid as of this writing.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

🇵🇱 Polish President Andrzej Duda calls the embargo on Ukrainian grain a right decision and advocates transit corridors to allow other countries to receive food without hindrance. He is against Ukrainian grain on the Polish market only.

🤔 The Russian occupiers are building fortifications near Mariupol, — adviser to the city's mayor.

For the first time in the history of Ukraine, flamingos have hatched in the Tuzly Lagoons National Park, says the head of research.

Last year we talked to him about the environmental impact of Russia's war on the lagoons. You can watch it here:

Live: Ukraine Telegram

🛢Russia has managed to avoid sanctions on most of its oil exports - Financial Times.
This year, Russia's oil revenues will be at least $15 billion more than they could have been.

Russians unsuccessfully tried to regain positions near Klishchiyivka and Avdiivka - General Staff

The problems for Germany's transfer of long-range Taurus missiles to Kyiv are the long training of the Ukrainian military, as well as the specialists who have to program the missile targets - Bild.
According to the publication, the manufacturer MBDA estimates that it will take about three months for the Ukrainian military to familiarize themselves with this weapon system.
In addition, the article says, the programming of Taurus targets must be carried out in Ukraine, so it is unlikely that Bundeswehr soldiers will do it for political reasons. Because of this, it will take even longer before the Ukrainian Armed Forces can deploy the missiles, even if the exercises are accelerated.

Orest Hrytsyuk, a sergeant of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, spent 9 months in Russian captivity as a POW.
He says Russian International Committee of the Red Cross representatives laughed at Ukrainian POWs and called them names, while they were forced to march and sing Russian songs.

Russian media report that Igor Strelkov was attacked while walking in the pre-trial detention center

Just the next Russian generation

Live: Ukraine, just this minute:

⚡️⚡️⚡️The Special Operations Forces have calculated the occupiers' losses during the latest attacks on Crimea:

The attack on the large landing ship Minsk killed 62 occupiers - the next day it was to go on combat duty, so the personnel were on the ship.

At the Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol, 34 officers were killed, including the commander of the Russian fleet. Another 105 occupiers were injured. The headquarters building is beyond repair.

Admiral Viktor Sokolov was the commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
So the news of his death was confirmed.

Ducks, great news from Crimea. War criminal and mass murderer Igor Strelkov gets attacked whilst in Russian detention? Nice bit of self-cleaning.

UK Min of Def was late in posting this today, but here it is:

These claims are unsubstantiated and perhaps we'll never know the truth but if they are true ... wow.

Malinda
AT TreasChest

Russian officers helped direct missiles to the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol - Kyiv Post

Officers of the Russian Navy “leaked” information to Ukraine about the location and activities of their commanders in exchange for monetary rewards, writes the Kyiv Post with reference to the partisan movement of Ukrainians and Crimean Tatars Atesh. The movement did not specify how much money informants among the occupiers received, but said it was enough to “cover the risks” for the officers and their families.

According to the partisans, we are talking about Russian officers who have access to “the general activities of the [Black Sea Fleet] command.”