Ukraine Invasion: Part 44

[MagicFox]

44th thread, all the usual thanks and appreciation

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PMK

New York checking in.

Care to comment on the more positive NYT article, and to explain why you believe the Ukrainian death count is very high, @Stratosphear ?

Thank you @MagicFox and as ever to @DancesWithDucks for your remarkable work on these roundups every day.

Caught up again. Thanks to those that gave me the nudge.

I'm not sure if it's the done thing to repeat a post I made right at the the back end of previous thread so I'll just mention for those that didn't see it that "The Drive" has published a well informed, fairly realistic/in some cases pessimistic take on what the F-16s can and cannot do, and potential timescales...

far as I'm concerned, please do repost it =) It's useful and people might have missed it, what with it being the end of the thread

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-20-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least two sectors of the front and advanced near Robotyne.
• Ukrainian strikes against Russian deep rear areas are generating discontent in the Russian information space and sparking criticism of the Russian military command, as Ukraine likely intends.
• Ukrainian strikes on Russian rear areas are demonstrably degrading the morale of Russian forces in Ukraine, which could threaten the stability of Russian defenses.
• The Netherlands and Denmark confirmed that they will transfer F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine but did not specify when.
• Russian officials have reportedly drafted a plan to conduct a decade-long ethnic cleansing campaign in occupied Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast.
• Wagner Group commanders accused two high-ranking Wagner representatives of betraying Wagner, possibly representing a growing fracture within the Wagner leadership and suggesting that the Kremlin’s and Russian MoD’s efforts to disband Wagner are partially succeeding.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Kupyansk, Kreminna, Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast on August 20 and marginally advanced near Bakhmut.
• Wagner Group fighters continue to commit violent crimes after returning to Russia.
• Russian officials continue to forcibly transport mothers and children from occupied Ukrainian territories to Russia under the guise of medical retreats.

Extra:
Morale issues pertaining to the Russian defense against Ukrainian counteroffensive operations are only relevant if Ukrainian forces can degrade Russian morale to the breaking point and take advantage of it; these morale issues will not matter if Russian forces do not break under this pressure. There is no way to predict if, when, or where a Russian unit might break under sustained pressure, but Ukrainian forces are setting conditions to increase the likelihood of such a development. [their bolding]

.....Ukrainian Air Force Commander Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk .... stated on August 20 that the provision of Western aircraft, such as the F-16, will allow Ukrainian forces to combat the main Russian aviation threat— the Su-35 fighter jet.[20] Oleshchuk assessed that if Russian forces lost between two and five percent of their current aircraft then Russian forces would temporarily stop flying combat missions to develop a response.[21] Oleshchuk argued that this temporary pause would give Ukraine temporary air superiority and therefore allow Ukrainian forces to significantly accelerate counteroffensive operations.[22] The impact of F-16 fighter jets on Ukrainian counteroffensive operations depends on numerous factors, and ISW offers no assessment of Oleshchuk’s argument at this time. [My bolding]

...The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on August 20 that Ukrainian partisans gained access to a Russian occupation development document that stipulates a 300,000 increase in Mariupol’s overall population by 2035 through migration from Russia..........Russian occupation officials have engaged in a series of efforts to attract Russian citizens to the occupied territories in Ukraine, although this alleged document is the most detailed account of the extent of the Kremlin’s long-term repopulation goals.[25]

Mariupol had a pre-invasion population of over 400,000 people and roughly 120,000 residents remained in the occupied city as of May 2023.[26] The Russian siege of Mariupol during the first phases of the Russian full-scale invasion killed up to 25,000 Ukrainian civilians and displaced hundreds of thousands from the city.[27]

Russian officials reportedly deported an additional 50,000 residents from the city to Russia and other occupied territories in the months following its capture.[28] The development document’s repopulation goals indicate that the Kremlin intends to remake Mariupol as a predominantly ethnic Russian city after engaging in a systematic and likely intentional effort to depopulate the city of ethnic Ukrainians.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Zelensky: Ukraine to get 42 F-16 fighter https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-ukraine-to-receive-42-f-16-fighter-jets/ jets.

⚡️Denmark plans to supply Ukraine with the first batch of six F-16 fighter jets out of 19 promised before the New Year, Danish PM Frederiksen announced during a joint press conference with Zelensky on Aug. 20 at the Skrydstrup airbase.
Next year, Ukraine will receive eight F-16 fighters, and in 2025 five more, Frederiksen confirmed.https://kyivindependent.com/danish-prime-minister-ukraine-to-receive-first-batch-of-the-f-16-fighter-jets-around-new-year/

⚡️The Russian Luna-25 spacecraft that was supposed to be the first to land on the lunar south pole has crashed into the moon, Russia's state space agency Roskosmos said on Aug. 20. https://kyivindependent.com/russias-luna-25-spaceaircrat/

⚡️Official: Ukraine liberates https://kyivindependent.com/official-ukraine-liberates-3-square-kilometers-near-bakhmut-over-past-week/ 3 square kilometers near Bakhmut over past week. According to Maliar, Ukraine has regained 43 square kilometers around Donetsk Oblast's Bakhmut since the summer counteroffensive started.

⚡️Russia claims https://kyivindependent.com/russia-claims-it-intercepted-two-drones-over-moscow-oblast/ it intercepted two drones over Moscow Oblast.

⚡️Russian governor Vyacheslav Gladkov: 12 drones downed https://kyivindependent.com/russian-governor-claims-downing-12-drones-over-belgorod/ over Belgorod.

⚡️National Resistance Center: Governor of Kursk Oblast in Russia built https://kyivindependent.com/national-resistance-center-4/ fake defense structures.

⚡️Russian forces https://kyivindependent.com/russia-tightens/ tighten checkpoints in Melitopol.

⚡️Official: number of victims rises https://kyivindependent.com/official-number-of-victims-raises-to-156-as-rescue-operation-ends-in-chernihiv-after-russian-attack/ to 156 following end of rescue operation in Chernihiv.

⚡️Ukraine to launch https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-to-launch/**international medical partnership program.

⚡️187 damaged https://kyivindependent.com/187/ educational institutions restored in Kyiv Oblast

⚡️Zelensky rules out giving https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-rules-out-possibilities-to-give-away-to-russia-part-of-ukraines-territory-in-return-for-peace/away Ukrainian territory in return for peace.

⚡️Bloomberg: Russian security hardliners https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-russian-security-services-reportedly-call-putin-to-dismiss-shoigu-and-announce-full-scale-mobilization-in-russia/ want Shoigu and Gerasimov gone, new mobilization wave. The faction also supports introducing full-scale mobilization and martial law to Russia.

Ragnar Gudmundsson
■ Strikes & engagements below average
■ Troop losses <500, equipment below average
■ Double-digit artillery, APV, vehicle & tank losses
■ ≈150 tanks this month so far
■ Oryx: 65:23/, 30-day ratio rises to 1.7x

UNITED24 Media Telegram

The next meeting of Ramstein, the 15th in a row, will be held from 18 to 24 September. This was stated by the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres will attend the BRICS summit in Johannesburg, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa. According to Ramaphosa, Guterres accepted the invitation to attend the meeting. Representatives of more than 20 countries will come to the summit.

US ramps up production of 155mm shells to supply Ukraine, — Washington Post

Certain Western officials are proposing territorial compromises to Ukraine as a means to halt the ongoing conflict, as reported by The Wall Street Journal. However, these proposals fail to align with the objectives of both Kyiv and Moscow. [ah, so that's why Zelensky repeated "we're not giving up territory" again]

The FSB offered Putin to dismiss Shoigu, introduce martial law, and start a general mobilization, writes Bloomberg with reference to five sources familiar with the situation.

Under pressure from Russia, Kyrgyzstan refuses to sell fresh water to Kazakhstan. But it is ready to sell to China, other countries of Asia and Europe, — Orda online publication.
This statement was made against the background of the cessation of water supply to Kazakhstan by the Shu and Talas rivers, which resulted in the death of crops there. Intensive negotiations are underway between the countries.
The publication notes that the cause of the water blockade could be pressure from Russia, which is dissatisfied with Astana's reluctance to help circumvent Western sanctions.

The main force of the explosion was aimed at people who were around the drama theater, — the Prosecutor General's Office
According to the investigation, the main force of the explosion during the attack on Chernihiv was explicitly aimed at people who were around the drama theater. "The investigation is being conducted in two main directions. The first is identifying those persons who decided to strike and directly conducted this strike. And, of course, we are studying all the circumstances related to the organization of the exhibition," Belousov said.

Russian Telegram channels are disseminating photographs from the Soltsy airfield in the Novgorod region, which was targeted by a drone attack on August 19. The Russian Ministry of Defense had initially reported that the Tu-22M3 bomber suffered "damage" during the attack. However, it appears likely that the aircraft has been significantly compromised, possibly resulting in its complete destruction. [the only way that plane's going to get airborn again is as ash, by the look of it]

Here goes..

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukrainian-f-16-combat-proficiency-at-scale-not-likely-before-2027-air-force-general-says

Live: Ukraine Telegram

🇨🇳🇷🇺 The Telegraph investigators found out (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/08/19/china-helping-arm-russia-helicopters-drones-metals-xi-putin/) that China is arming Russia with helicopters, drones, optical sights and materials for the defense industry.
Exports of potential military goods from China to Russia have tripled compared to last year. This year's trade between the two countries is expected to exceed $200 billion.
Earlier, Politico wrote (https://www.politico.eu/article/china-firms-russia-body-armor-bullet-proof-drones-thermal-optics-army-equipment-shanghai-h-win/) that China has significantly increased its dual-use trade with Russia over the past year, which has helped Moscow, in particular, import sanctioned Western technologies. Russia has imported more than $100 million worth of drones from China - 30 times more than Ukraine.

Two Russians were injured by drone debris in the Moscow region. The debris fell on a house in the Istra urban district.

⚽️ During the final of the Women's World Cup, a man wearing a T-shirt with the words "Stop Putler" and "Free Ukraine" ran onto the field. He was detained and taken off the field

🇳🇱 Dutch extreme left and right parties criticized Prime Minister Mark Rutte for bypassing the parliament and announcing his intention to provide Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets [fecking pissartists. One of these guys believes lizardmen run the NL]

ty @notimagain

Since June 8th, about 1400 Russian artillery has been destroyed.

(from Ragnar Gudmundsson)

Girkin's wife claims he's ill. This is from Girkin's telegram channel, using auto translate.

It's a sickening channel. They have a small girl on it, possibly his daughter, clearly posting some sort of appeal (it's in Russian).

When I see it, all I can think of is the children on MH17, the little girl Liza who was literally eviscerated by Russian bombs, the children killed in Mariupol, the little 6 yo who died in Chernihiv and literally 47,000 Russians laughing about the child's deaths. (there's a screenshot of it)

There is something profoundly wrong with a culture where not a few sick individuals laugh about a child's death but forty seven thousand.

Totally agree with you with regards to the screen shot of the little girls memorial Ducks.
I don't understand how so many Russians can revel in the death and destruction they unleash on the world.

One important point in that article is that in addition to an air defense role, the NATO standard weapons data bus in the F-16 will allow it to load easily and fire air-launched cruise missiles and HARMs, the missiles that target radar and electronic warfare emitters. Both of these can be done from a standoff range that won't expose them to most Russian air defenses.

True, though of course the Ukrainians have already integrated HARM and some other NATO munitions onto their remaining Mig-29s, but perhaps without all the knobs and bells you get with a standard NATO package.

If I was involved in expectation management around these deliveries I’d be saying they really can improve matters when it comes to dealing with Russian cruise missiles/drones, especially when thee are multiple threats - obviously a very very good thing and very very welcome.

In other areas, initially at least, they’ll be doing the same job, though hopefully in a slightly more efficient manner than as the remaining Mig-29s. They’re fourth generation, not low observable, so to some extent the Ukraine airforce will still struggle to operate in contested airspace over and near the battle field (as indeed are the Russians)

I think the important thing is folks are really aware of is that what is being promised isn’t something that will turn the war overnight..but every little bit helps.

The US has advised its citizens to leave Belarus immediately. Wonder if it’s just in response to the border crossings closing or if there is more to it…

Just when you think Wagner couldn't sink any lower they lay on 'summer camps' for abducted Ukrainian children.
Like putting the foxes in charge of the hen house, no sane person would want those animals anywhere near children.

x.com/sarahashtonlv/status/1693657039413665904?s=61&t=NaIdJ_hpeHJ7BCXblc3CMg

From The Telegraph:

Fierce fighting is reportedly taking place in a key village on the war’s southern front after Ukrainian troops forced their way into the centre of Robotyne.

Military Informant, a pro-Russian blogger, said Kyiv’s forces had reached the “central part of the settlement” but were being held back by the 810th brigade and artillery.

Another Telegram channel with more than 900,000 subscribers said: “Robotyne - the enemy has entered the central part, there are fierce battles.”

Geolocated footage last week showed Ukraine had breached Russia’s northern line of defences around Robotyne. Reports indicate they did so under the cover of cluster munitions.

The settlement is strategically significant because it allows Ukraine to launch assaults on the city of Tokmak, as it pushes south towards Melitopol in a bid to cut Russia’s so-called “land bridge” to Crimea.

Lots of noise on Twitter about Robotyne too.

But they've had HARM capability for over a year now. They're using Storm Shadows off Su-24s too, for instance. Not sure what the F-16 really conveys here as an advantage, and certainly not a massive one that changes much on the ground currently given the timeline quoted above.

When fired from Russian jets the missiles cannot use radar sensor data from the aircraft, they can only be fired at fixed locations loaded into the missile before take off. That greatly reduces their effectiveness.

https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2022/09/11/what-are-harm-the-air-to-surface-missiles-destroying-russian-air-defence-radar

The lack of a data interface between aircraft and missile presents another potential problem. Usually HARM passes information from its own radar-seeker to the pilot, who then fires the missile at a radar system. HARM does have a simpler pre-programmed mode in which the co-ordinates of an enemy radar site are entered before take-off. HARM rigged this way cannot go after mobile or unexpected threats, only previously located radar.

Just wonderful!