Ukraine Invasion: Part 45

[MagicFox]

Thanks to all: contributors, lurkers and those in-between

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I am reporting for duty a bit early. I'll just go and have a coffee.

Thank you @MagicFox

Thanks @MagicFox

the Kyiv roundup, I put it on the old thread. https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/4876351-ukraine-invasion-part-44?page=39&reply=129497902

UNITED24 Media Telegram

🪖 Ukrainian troops are making progress south of Bakhmut, reports Yevlash, a spokesman:
"On the southern flank, we continue our offensive, in particular, we have successes near Zaitseve, Klishchiyivka, Odarivka and Ivanivske."

🌾 In just the recent months, Russia has destroyed at least 280 000 tons of grain in Ukraine.
"That’s enough to feed as many as 10.5 million people for a year. Russia’s attacks continue to threaten global food security", — The US Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin.

❗️ Russian drones attacking Odesa region were spotted from a Romanian barge just 1 km from the border.
However, the drones did not cross the border, according to a Ukrainian official.

🇪🇺 IT giants reported to the EU on fighting Russian propaganda.
Brussels has published reports by Google, Meta, Microsoft and other Internet companies on the fight against disinformation. It remains a risk, despite fact-checking, removal of channels and demotion in search engines, the EU says.

🤔 Elon Musk's social network X (Twitter) has disabled the ability to complain about election disinformation.
Previously, this was a separate category in the complaints menu, but last week it was removed for all users except those in the EU, Reuters reports.
Research organization Reset.Tech Australia believes that this is a problem, as the ability to complain about disinformation was disabled less than three weeks before the Australian referendum on constitutional amendments and 14 months before the US presidential election.

🇨🇭 Switzerland greenlights 25 Leopard 2 tank sale to Germany, with a no-Ukraine transfer clause.
In June, the Swiss government declined RUAG's request to re-export 96 Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine, which were initially intended for delivery following refurbishment in Germany.

🚆 Ukraine has developed an autonomous Food Train, which will allow it to feed people in the frontline areas.
The train can operate completely autonomously for 5-7 days, producing more than 10 thousand meals a day. Its length is about 150 meters.
The Food Train consists of 6 cars: a generator car with its own filling station inside, a refrigerator car with a freezer, two cars with a hot and cold kitchen, a car for train staff and cooks, and a luggage car that can hold 27,000 liters of water.
All train cars have been overhauled and modernized at UZ's (Ukrainian Railways) facilities.

⚡️ Ethnic tensions between Russian units may threaten the integrity of Russian defenses amidst recent Ukrainian gains in the area.
Arsen Temiraev, a North Ossetian-Alanian serviceman, accused military police of beating him and two others over allegations of child assault, — ISW.

⚽️ England has already refused to play soccer with Russian youth teams, despite UEFA's permission.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

❗️Ukrainian Special Forces responded to the appearance of the commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet at a meeting. Information about his death is currently being clarified, but they add that according to the Ukrainian Special Forces , 34 officers were killed in the missile strike at the fleet headquarters. Many have not yet been identified.

Iran has modernized the Shahed-136 kamikaze drone. Now it has a turbojet engine and will not hum like a moped.

An explosion occurred at a main gas pipeline in Lubny district, Poltava region, said the head of the Regional Military Administration, Lunin.
According to the State Emergency Service, at 13:00, an underground high-pressure gas pipeline was depressurized. Maintenance personnel closed the intermediate valves. The pressure in the pipeline in this area is gradually decreasing, and there is no threat to the settlements.

Russia is trying https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66919358** to return to the UN Human Rights Council.
According to the BBC, Russian diplomats have sent a document to other UN member states asking them to support their proposal in the upcoming vote.
The document states that Russia promises "adequate solutions to human rights issues" and will do everything possible to ensure that the Council ceases to be "an instrument that serves the political will of one group of countries."
As a reminder, Russia was expelled from the Council in April 2022 for its aggression against Ukraine.

In Estonia, the police force Russians to remove 'I am Russian' stickers from their cars, or the car is immediately taken to the impound lot.

Binance is completely leaving Russia.
The world's largest crypto exchange has concluded an agreement on the sale of the Russian business of CommEX. This was reported by the press service of the company.
The process of transition of existing users to another platform will take up to one year.

Ordinary Ukrainians help the Ukrainian army in the occupied territories, even risking their own lives. Sofia Bíla a resident of the Kherson region saved three wounded Ukrainian soldiers. She hid them in her cellar for two months until her village was liberated.

[distressing]
◾️Insider previously reported on the case of a woman who recounted being raped by Russian soldiers who killed her husband. The woman ushered her crying 4-year-old son to the next room before the attack, but his cries so angered her attackers that they threatened, with a gun to her head, to "show him his mother's brains spread around the house," she said in an interview https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/one-soldier-raped-me-then-the-other-as-my-son-cried-7xbqwzdqw with The Times of London.

Thanks as always to Magicfox, Ducks & Blue-shoes for keeping us all up to date and on track.
As always hoping for good news of a Ukrainian victory and russian retreat on this thread.

Thank you

Reporting in, with thanks to all the regular contributors.

Kaja Kallas being excellent on Hard Talk: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/hardtalk/id494517111?i=1000629195571

Yes I really enjoyed this. I find he can come across as a bit of a twat when he’s interviewing people but she handled it very well, including the questions around her husband’s own links to Russia.

Totally agree, she managed to highlight the arsey-ness of his deliberately aggressive questioning really calmly, turning it back on him. Her concluding sentences were really impactful

Thanks for the link @MagicFox. Kaja Kallas dealt with tough questions articulately and with passion. A timely reminder of the personal impact of Russian belligerence and why it must not be permitted to continue.

Harrowing accounts of systematic torture of civilians

news.sky.com/story/torture-24-hours-a-day-survivors-reveal-the-dark-cruelty-of-russias-detention-centres-in-occupied-ukraine-12970745

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️WSJ: Scholz blocks https://kyivindependent.com/wsj-scholtz-blocks-transfer-of-taurus-missiles-to-ukraine-due-to-fear-of-russia/ transfer of Taurus missiles to Ukraine due to fear of Russia.

⚡️CNN: House Republicans to reject https://kyivindependent.com/house-republicans-to-reject-deal-as-us-shutdown-nears/ Senate deal as US shutdown nears. [with implications for funding for Ukraine]

⚡️North Korea advancing weapons deal https://kyivindependent.com/north-korea-advancing-weapons-deal-with-russia/ with Russia.
North Korea is continuing arms negotiations with Russia and intends to strike a deal soon, U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller told reporters on Sept. 27.

⚡️ Official: Russia starts building railway links to occupied cities https://kyivindependent.com/official-russia-builds-railway-connection-between-mariupol-volnovakha-donetsk/ in Donetsk Oblast.
Russia started building direct railway links to the occupied Ukrainian cities Mariupol, Volnovakha, and Donetsk, which could decrease Moscow's logistical dependence on the Crimean Bridge, Petro Andriushchenko, an advisor to Melitopol's exiled mayor, said on Sept. 27.
The official noted that if these efforts are successful, Russia will connect the railway line of Mariupol-Aslanove-Kalchyk-Volnovakha in occupied Ukraine with the Russian cities of Taganrog and Rostov-on-Don.

The spokesperson of the Eastern Grouping of Forces, Illia Yevlash, said that of roughly 8,000 Wagner fighters who were stationed in Belarus, some departed for Africa, and around 500 are returning to Ukraine's eastern front: RBC Ukraine

The Bulgarian parliament has voted to transfer to Ukraine an unknown number of unserviceable S-300 surface-to-air missiles that could be repaired there, Sofia Globe reported on Sept. 27. https://kyivindependent.com/bulgarian-parliament-approves-providing-ukraine-with-s-300-missiles/

⚡️US announces https://kyivindependent.com/us-announces-new-sanctions-on-firms-involved-in-production-of-shahed-drones/ new sanctions on firms involved in production of Shahed drones.

⚡️ Bloomberg: Egypt in talks with Russia https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-egypt-in-talks-with-russia-to-buy-1-million-tons-of-wheat/ to buy 1 million tons of wheat through a government-to-government deal, Bloomberg reported on Sept. 26, citing sources familiar with the matter.

⚡️ Baku claims 192 Azerbaijani troops killed https://kyivindependent.com/azerbaijan-says-it-lost-192-troops-in-karabakh-offensive/ 511 wounded in Karabakh offensive.

⚡️Azerbaijan detains https://kyivindependent.com/azerbaijan-detains-former-head-of-nagorno-karabakh-armenian-authorities/ former Nagorno-Karabakh PM.
The Azerbaijani authorities have detained Ruben Vardanyan, a former self-proclaimed prime minister of Azerbaijan's Nagorno-Karabakh region, as he was trying to leave for Armenia, the Azerbaijani Border Service said on Sept. 27.

⚡️ SBU detains two Kyiv residents suspected of coordinating Russian strikes. https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-detains-two-kyiv-residents-suspected-of-coordinating-russian-strikes/

⚡️Swiss parliament again votes down https://kyivindependent.com/swiss-parliament-again-votes-down-re-export-of-arms-to-ukraine/ re-export of arms to Ukraine.
A considerable majority of the Swiss National Council, Switzerland's lower house of parliament, voted against a proposal to amend the rules regarding the re-export of Swiss-made weapons to Ukraine, the Swiss legislature reported on Sept. 27.
The proposed amendment was rejected by 135 lawmakers and only approved by 48.

⚡️Media: Poll ahead of upcoming Slovak election shows divide https://kyivindependent.com/media-poll-ahead-of-upcoming-slovak-election-shows-divide-on-support-for-ukraine/ on support for Ukraine.

⚡️ Ukraine to boycott UEFA football competitions https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-refuses-to-play-in-uefa-football-tournaments-if-russia-participates/ involving Russia.

Official announcements from Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, England, Northern Ireland, Denmark, and Sweden stated that their football teams would not take part in any competitions involving Russian teams. https://kyivindependent.com/several-european-countries-to-boycott-uefa-matches-involving-russia/

⚡️Media: Severed pig heads placed https://kyivindependent.com/media-severed-pig-heads-placed-at-russian-propagandists-homes/ at Russian propagandists' homes.
Three Russian pro-war propagandists have stated they had found severed pig heads on their doorsteps, Novaya Gazeta Europe, an independent Russian newspaper, reported on Sept. 27.

⚡️Polish opposition leader calls for https://kyivindependent.com/polish-opposition-calls-for-unwavering-ukraine-aid/ unwavering military aid to Ukraine.

⚡️Media: Germany investigating https://kyivindependent.com/media-germany-investigating-possible-russian-war-crimes-in-ukraine/ possible Russian war crimes in Ukraine.

⚡️Trudeau apologizes https://kyivindependent.com/trudeau-issues-official-apology-for-inviting-nazi-vet/ for honoring Nazi veteran.

Ragnar Gudmundsson

WAR IN #UKRAINE - SEP 28
■ Fewer strikes, combat engagements at a low level
■ Troop losses stay below 7-day average, equipment above
■ 7-day average of artillery losses stays at a record level
■ No new equipment confirmed by Oryx

ISW are suggesting Ukraine have made a breakthrough on the Robotyne - Verbove line.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-27-2023

Ukrainian forces marginally advanced near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 27. Geolocated footage published on September 26 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced near Orikhovo-Vasylivka (10km northwest of Bakhmut).[1] Additional geolocated footage published on September 26 indicates that Russian forces likely no longer control a roughly one-kilometer-long trench line west of Verbove (16km southeast of Orikhiv).[2] The absence of Russian forces in this trench line could facilitate further Ukrainian advances in this area, as this trench line is no longer a significant obstacle for Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Commander Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi stated that “there will be good news” in the Zaporizhia operational direction and noted that Ukrainian forces are steadily advancing but did not provide additional information.[3]

The situation near Verbove remains unclear as prominent Russian milbloggers have become noticeably less inclined to report in detail on Russian activity on this frontline or present bad news about Russian failures, while a discussion about reported Russian problems in this area has emerged on the fringes of the Russian information space. Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official Vladimir Rogov claimed on September 26 that at least four Ukrainian companies with a significant number of armored vehicles stormed Russian positions along the Robotyne-Verbove line after conducting a massive artillery barrage.[4] A Russian milblogger who avidly supports Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) Commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky by criticizing the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) responded to Rogov, stating that Ukrainian forces have already passed the minefields and “dragon’s teeth” anti-tank fortifications on the Robotyne-Verbove line and that Ukrainian forces would have conducted such attacks sooner or later.[5] Another Russian milblogger claimed on September 26 that there is intense mutual shelling that is making it dangerous to operate above ground near Verbove and Robotyne.[6] Still another milblogger reportedly affiliated with the VDV Forces responded to this claim, stating that a personal source from the Russian 108th VDV Regiment (7th VDV Division) reported that there is intense Ukrainian shelling in the area.[7] The milblogger added that their source provided unclear information about whether the 108th VDV Regiment was moving to Verbove or leaving from Verbove. The milblogger also claimed that the Russian military command in Moscow canceled plans for the redeployment of the Russian 106th VDV Division to the Robotyne area to aid the 7th and 76th VDV Divisions currently operating there and offered an unreasonable explanation for the motivation behind this decision.[8] ISW has observed that this channel has demonstrated a tendency to make exaggerated statements and implausible claims that favor Teplinsky against Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu and Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov. ISW has also previously observed elements of the 106th VDV Division in the Bakhmut area.[9] The Russian information space has largely been hesitant recently to discuss Russian forces’ operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast, as the Russian milblogger community has reduced its criticisms of the Russian conduct of the war on this sector of the front since Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s rebellion on June 24. ISW will continue to adapt to this new information space.

Yesterday there was talk of Russian reserves arriving in Tokmak.

There seems to be a reason for that.

There's been a lot of speculation on which variant of the ATACMS the US will be sending to Ukraine, with most people assuming it will be the version with the unitary warhead for use against targets like the Kerch Bridge. The version with the Custer Munition warhead may be more useful to Ukraine, as it excels at attacking targets like military airfields, air defense installations, and troop concentrations.

Ukraine Getting ATACMS Cluster Variant Would Be A Big Problem For Russia - Cluster munition-laden ATACMSs would be able to take out aprons full of aircraft and key air defense batteries from nearly 200 miles away.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

❗️ Greenpeace warns that international regulators are unable to properly monitor safety at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, calling it a "dangerous nuclear crisis".
The group is urging western leaders to take action to prevent a disaster.

⚡️ NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg arrived in Kyiv on an unannounced visit.
He met with President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Russia used drones containing elements manufactured in the United States, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Germany, Canada, Japan, and Poland to conduct more than 600 raids on Ukrainian cities, — The Guardian.

🇪🇺 EU threatens to ban exports to third countries that re-export drone parts to Russia and Iran.
The EU is working with these countries on a diplomatic level to prevent this, but if those efforts fail, the EU will use its anti-circumvention tool to ban exports of specific goods to these countries, the Guardian reports.

⚡️ Missile fragments were found in a lake in the Anenii Noi district of Moldova, near Odesa region.
Experts are now pumping water out of the lake, as the explosive component of the missile may be at the bottom of the reservoir.

On October 1, we will mark the Day of Ukraine's Defenders the day of honour to those fighting for our nation, for global peace and security.
On this day, Ukrainians will pause fora minute to pay tribute to those who gave their lives for our future. We will stand still in every Ukrainian city, on every street and square. 9 a.m., Sunday, October 1st. Nationwide Minute of Silence. A minute of honour and an eternity of memory for our fallen defenders.

❗️ Nagorno-Karabakh President Signs Decree on Termination of the Republic's Existence.
According to the decree of President Samvel Shahramanyan, the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic will cease to exist from January 1, 2024. All state institutions of the NKR will be dissolved.

🇬🇧 The newly appointed Secretary of State for Defense of the UK Grant Shapps has arrived in Ukraine.

🇺🇦🤝🇬🇧 Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi meets with UK's Radakin to discuss war effort.
Zaluzhnyi and Radakin met in Kyiv today to discuss the situation on the frontline, weapons supplies, and especially air defense systems.

🇰🇿 Qazaqstan supports the EU's decision to impose sanctions on Russia for its aggression against Ukraine and will not allow Moscow to evade them, — Qazaq President Qasym-Jomart Toqaev.

🐹 Scientists successfully reintroduced Red Book hamsters to the Odesa steppes, saving them from near-extinction.
Odesa Regional State Administration, Rewilding Ukraine, and Kyiv Zoo are working to establish a stable population.
📷: Odesa Regional State Administration

❗️ A customs warehouse at the airport in Tashkent, the capital of Uzbekistan, exploded this night. According to current reports, one person was killed and 163 were injured.

(love hearing about the hamsters, a tiny bit of good news!)