Ukraine Invasion: Part 44

[MagicFox]

44th thread, all the usual thanks and appreciation

**

--

1. Agreed thread guidance:

1. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

1. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

1. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

Aw that's a shame.

MyLordBebo?

Really

Mumsnet is a bit classier than to quote that vatnik

Good interview here with the deadliest cool dude on the planet

x.com/defmon3/status/1705292841155506338?s=46&t=En7uHsBtveeyWz6jMQkU-A

Is it donation time?

Good morning

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1705465462442651787?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1705465462442651787%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

@jgw1 looking that way, with a link to a Twitter account like LordBebo's :D

Liebig did promise us "he'd be watching", as if the presence of a Russia-inclined copy-paste expert like him has any value.

From a Russian telegram channel, asking about bomb shelters in Crimea. The stings in the tail comes near the end https://t.co/Ose7tlM5DB

Residents of Sevastopol will have to save themselves from the missiles. The authorities confirmed our information and clarified the data on those killed at the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet

After the attack on the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol , we wrote that residents of the city will have to equip bomb shelters themselves, since the authorities do not have time to do this. “ The authorities called on city residents to look for basements in apartment buildings and equip them for shelters themselves. If the basement doors are closed, Sevastopol residents can and even should demand that utility workers open them,” we reported, citing an interlocutor in the Sevastopol government.

This information was fully and officially confirmed by Governor Mikhail Razvozhaev. “Concerning shelters, I want to convey one more important point: do not expect that someone will come and stock up water there, install chairs, flooring, and provide ventilation. It is impossible to improve all TEMPORARY shelters in this way, this will require billions. I emphasize that shelters are temporary ", these are not bomb shelters. They are needed mainly to hide from rocket fragments and broken glass. This also needs to be understood. And accepted ," he wrote , addressing residents of Sevastopol. Also, as we said, he promised to resolve issues with closed basements of apartment buildings.

We have two questions about this for the authorities of Sevastopol and personally for Razvozhaev. Firstly, if you cannot properly equip bomb shelters (many people, including us, have warned more than once about inevitable large-scale attacks on the city and Crimea as a whole, and only you “calmed down” people without preparing to protect them), then although would the air raid signal in the city begin to work normally? When?

Secondly, we know for sure that since the beginning of this year, Sevastopol has been allocated more than 500 million rubles from the federal budget for the construction of bomb shelters and other measures to protect the civilian population. This may not be enough to protect the entire city, but please show us where this money was spent. How many shelters have been built, opened and equipped? We really hope that this money is not stolen, but, sorry, we want proof.

We hope for honest answers to these questions; the situation is complex.

By the way, our source in the Sevastopol government clarified the information about those killed as a result of the attack on the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet. According to the latest data, unfortunately, the figure has increased. 36 people died , most of them officers.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-22-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces carried out drone and cruise missile strikes on occupied Crimea and significantly damaged the Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) Command headquarters in Sevastopol on September 22.
• The Russian information space heavily focused its attention on the Ukrainian strike on Sevastopol on September 22.
• Ukrainian forces advanced south of Bakhmut and reportedly advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 22.
• The US Department of Defense (DoD) announced a new security assistance package on September 21, providing Ukraine with $325 million worth of military equipment.
• The US will reportedly soon provide long-range army tactical missile systems (ATACMS) to Ukraine.
• Russian efforts to intensify divisions between Ukraine and its Central European partners appear to have suffered a setback as Polish Prime Minister Andrzej Duda reiterated the strength of Polish-Ukrainian relations on September 22. [Yes!]
• A Ukrainian military official swiftly denied Russian claims that Wagner Group forces are operating in occupied Kherson Oblast.
• The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) is reportedly investigating high-ranking Rosgvardia officials over their potential involvement in Wagner Group’s rebellion on June 24.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations in the Kupyansk area, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in western Donetsk Oblast and reportedly advanced in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast administrative border area.
• The Russian government is reportedly planning to increase defense spending by 4.4 trillion rubles ($46 billion) in 2024.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

Russian Defense Ministry confirms strike on Black Sea Fleet headquarters. https://kyivindependent.com/sky-news-ukraine-used-storm-shadow-missiles-in-black-sea-fleet-headquarters-strike/ Update: https://kyivindependent.com/update-9-people-killed-16-injured-in-ukrainian-attack-against-russias-black-sea-fleet-headquarters/

⚡️Large-scale cyberattack reported https://kyivindependent.com/large-scale-cyber-attack-reported-in-occupied-crimea/ in occupied Crimea.
Russian proxies in occupied Crimea announced on Sept. 22 that there was a cyberattack of an “unprecedented” scale.

⚡️ Media: US to send small number of ATACMS https://kyivindependent.com/media-us-to-send-small-number-of-atacms-to-ukraine/ to Ukraine.
Biden told Zelensky that Washington would provide Ukraine with a small number of long-range ATACMS missiles, NBC News reported on Sept. 22, citing three U.S. officials and a Congressional official familiar with the matter.

⚡️Duda: Grain dispute will not disrupt good relations https://kyivindependent.com/duda-grain-dispute-will-not-disrupt-good-relations-between-poland-ukraine/ between Poland, Ukraine.
The disagreement over grain exports should not upend Polish-Ukrainian relations, Polish President Andrzej Duda said on Sept. 22.

⚡️Military: Ukraine has achieved a breakthrough https://kyivindependent.com/military-ukraine-has-achieved-a-breakthrough-in-verbove/ in Verbove.
Ukraine's forces on the southern Zaporizhzhia front have breached Russian lines in Verbove, General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, the commander of Ukraine's military fighting in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, said in an interview with CNN on Sept. 23.

⚡️ Bloomberg: EU Commission to recommend Ukraine membership talks. https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-eu-commission-to-recommend-ukraine-membership-talks/

⚡️Minister: Three more cargo vessels using https://kyivindependent.com/minister-three-more-cargo-vessels-using-temporary-black-sea-corridor/ temporary Black Sea corridor. Another three cargo vessels that have agreed to use the Black Sea temporary corridor set up after Russia’s withdrawal from the grain deal are moving towards Ukraine’s ports, Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov reported on Sept. 22.
After loading over 127,000 metric tons of Ukrainian agricultural products and iron ore, the bulk carriers will leave for China, Egypt, and Spain, according to Kubrakov.

⚡️ Romanian PM to visit Kyiv https://kyivindependent.com/romanian-pm-to-visit-kyiv-to-finalize-grain-agreement/ to conclude grain import talks.

⚡️Biden: 'Next week, the first Abrams tanks https://kyivindependent.com/biden-next-week-the-first-abrams-tanks-will-be-delivered-to-ukraine/ will be delivered to Ukraine.'

⚡️Shmyhal: Ukraine receives another 1.5 billion euros https://kyivindependent.com/shmyhal-ukraine-receives-another-1-5-billion-euros-in-macro-financial-assistance/ in macro-financial assistance.
Ukraine was transferred another 1.5 billion euros (about $1.6 billion) installment of the European Union’s macro-financial assistance package, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced on Twitter on Sept. 22.

⚡️ Bloomberg: Russia plans massive hike in defense spending https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-russia-plans-massive-hike-in-defense-spending-in-2024/ in 2024.
Next year, Russia's defense spending will be increased to 6% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) from 3.9% this year and 2.7% in 2021, Bloomberg reported on Sept. 22.

Czechia is in talks with Sweden about training Ukrainian pilots on Gripen fighter jets on its territory, Radio Prague International reported on Sept. 22, citing the Czech defense minister. https://kyivindependent.com/minister-czechia-wants-to-train-ukrainian-pilots-on-gripen-jets/

⚡️ Trudeau announces $480 million aid package, F-16 training for Ukraine, including 650m Canadian dollars ($480 million) for 50 armored vehicles, as well as training on F-16 fighter jets.
The funds will be used over three years, and the vehicles, including medical evacuation vehicles, will be built in Canada.
Ottawa will also send trainers to help Ukrainian staff operate and maintain F-16 fighter jets.

Danish Defense Ministry has discovered that 12 out of 20 Leopard 1A5 tanks it had sent to Ukraine are faulty, the Danish government-owned TV2 channel reported on Sept. 22. https://kyivindependent.com/media-danish-leopard-1-tanks-donated-to-ukraine-have-defects/

⚡️Canada imposes https://kyivindependent.com/canada-imposes-63-sanctions-against-russian-individuals-entities/ 63 sanctions against Russian individuals, entities.

⚡️Reuters: Russian hackers target https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-russian-hackers-target-war-crimes-probes-in-ukraine/ war crimes probes in Ukraine.

⚡️Romanian president: Russian drones https://kyivindependent.com/romanian-president-russian-drones-not-directly-targeted-at-romania-still-a-problem/ not directly targeted at Romania, still a problem.

Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko expressed interest in creating a three-way partnership with Russia and North Korea during his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi, Russia, on Sept. 15. https://kyivindependent.com/belarus-weekly-lukashenko-seeks-closer-ties-with-russia-north-korea/

Azerbaijani authorities project a situation in which ethnic Armenian fighters in Nagorno-Karabakh will receive amnesty in exchange for laying down their arms, said Hikmet Hajiyev, a foreign policy advisor to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, in an interview with Reuters. https://kyivindependent.com/azerbaijan-claims-to-seek-amnesty-for-armenian-nagorno-karabakh-fighters-who-surrender-their-weapons/

⚡️ Government postpones launch of oligarch register until after war.
https://kyivindependent.com/government-postpones-launch-of-oligarchs-register-until-after-war/

Andrey Medvedev, the former Wagner Group commander who made headlines in January 2023 for escaping to Norway in a bid to seek asylum, was arrested by Norwegian authorities near Kirkenes after trying to cross back into Russia. https://kyivindependent.com/ex-wagner-group-commander-arrested-in-norway-for-attempting-to-illegally-cross-back-into-russia/

⚡️UPDATE: 1 killed, 32 injured https://kyivindependent.com/update-1-killed-32-injured-in-russian-sept-22-strike-on-kremenchuk/ in Russian Sept. 22 strike on Kremenchuk.

Ragnar Gudmundsson
AT ragnarbjartur
·
3h

WAR IN #UKRAINE - SEP 23

Clear downward trend ofartillery strikes
■ Troop losses slightly below average
■ Double-digit artillery, vehicle, APV & tank losses
■ Oryx: -29duplicates & corrections
See dashboard for further analysis

https://lookerstudio.google.com/s/qvO4IGbkSk8

(510 killed,
33 artillery
27 vehicles
21 APVs
4 MLRS
2 anti-aircraft systems)

UNITED 24 Media Telegram

Russia has lost over 12,000 pieces of military equipment in Ukr, including at least 5 S-400 launchers: Newsweek
2 were destroyed in Crimea in the past month. This is a major blow to Russia's air defense as each S-400 system can cost over $600m.

Australia supports stripping Russia of its veto in the UN Security Council. "Russia is making a mockery of the UN every day by continuing its illegal and immoral invasion of Ukraine," — Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong Wong at the UN General Assembly in New York.

We have information that Russians are currently preparing an information campaign aimed at discrediting President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his team abroad, — Andrii Yermak, head of the presidential office of Ukraine.

These are the theses that Ru propagandists will use:

• They will talk about the presidential election in Russia, which will demonstrate the strong support of Putin by Russian society. They will say that there is a crisis in Kyiv, where the government is losing the trust of political elites;

• They will point out that the scandal between the leaderships of Poland and Ukraine proves that there is no unity between Europe and Kyiv. And they will argue that everything is based solely on the desire to use Ukraine as a "military battering ram" against Russia;

• Another thesis will be about the usurpation of power and the cancellation of elections;

• Also, propagandists will try to convince the West that dealing with a stable Russia, especially after Putin's re-election for another presidential term, is much more profitable than with Zelenskyy.

They plan to spread these theses in the media and use bot farms.

On September 21, Russia launched a massive missile attack on Ukraine. The missiles entered Ukrainian airspace from different directions and constantly changed course during their flight.

According to the Ukrainian military, Russia launched 43 cruise missiles from 10 Tu-95MS strategic bombers. Of those, 36 were intercepted and destroyed by Ukrainian air defenses.

On September 21, Russia launched a massive missile attack on Ukraine. The missiles entered Ukrainian airspace from different directions and constantly changed course during their flight.
According to the Ukrainian military, Russia launched 43 cruise missiles from 10 Tu-95MS strategic bombers. Of those, 36 were intercepted and destroyed by Ukrainian air defenses.

Kyiv Independents figures.

It is. Just donated

Live: Ukraine Telegram

The United States, China and Russia are expanding and equipping their nuclear test sites.
CNN journalists analyzed their satellite images: Russia's at Novaya Zemlya, China's at Lop Nur, and the US's in Nevada. Presumably, they are being prepared for testing, although an international treaty from 1996 prohibits this. Satellite images indicate that the test sites are in fact ready for testing.

🇺🇸 The Financial Times, citing sources, https://www.ft.com/content/a6fcd6af-aade-4c68-83ab-f4eaa57b2c9d* writes that the Biden Administration has decided not to publicly announce the delivery of ATACMS missiles to Ukraine. These are missiles with cluster warheads, as the US no longer plans to use them in its operations.*

[by dusk the black clouds are -still- billowing out from the Sevastopol HQ].

U.S. asks Poland to explain PM Morawiecki's statement on 'halting arms shipments to Ukraine' - Bloomberg
A diplomatic source in Europe told the media that Polish diplomats privately assured their foreign counterparts of Poland's continued military support for Ukraine, even if on a smaller scale.
The source added that the loss of Poland's support for Ukraine could prove disastrous for the Ukrainian military campaign, as it threatens to undermine NATO's unity.

Our partners have allocated almost 238 billion euros for Ukraine. [reminder, not all these infographics are 100% reliable]

⚡️⚡️The commander of the Tavria group of troops, Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, said that Ukrainian soldiers broke through the defense near Verbove in the Zaporizhzhya sector.

Bloomberg: Russia plans massive hike in defense spending https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-russia-plans-massive-hike-in-defense-spending-in-2024/in 2024.
Next year, Russia's defense spending will be increased to 6% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) from 3.9% this year and 2.7% in 2021, Bloomberg reported on Sept. 22.

Given the their economy is going down the pan, is this actually going to be much of an increase?

They [the social media propagandists] will talk about the presidential election in Russia, which will demonstrate the strong support of Putin by Russian society.

Because of the results, which obviously they will know well in advance of the election taking place.

More from FT on this - summarised below as the article is behind a paywall:

www.ft.com/content/e0aa40c4-c185-4974-b35c-ca2decca1128

Russia plans to increase spending by more than 25% next year

Kremlin Russian PM Mikhail Mishustin announced that Russia plans to increase state spending in 2024 by more than 25% to Rbs36.6tn ($383bn). The Kremlin’s main priority is the war, followed by social spending and internal security. The PM claimed that Russia’s revenues from oil and gas, which have in recent years accounted for as much as half of the entire budget, would amount to a third of next year’s total.

Former central bank officials cast doubt on how exactly Russia would fund the spending as western sanctions continue to bite at energy exports. “The rise in expenses suggested by the law draft isn’t the real surprise; it’s the nearly identical increase in income that catches the eye … It’s hard to explain this uptick in income solely by what’s already been disclosed.

Magical figures and 'social support' from the Kremlin whilst Putin storms to victory.

There is something wrong with these Russian defence figures. A figure of $383bn would take spending to about 18% of Russian GDP. If the figure of 6% is achieved spending would be about $125bn.

Russia has one of the lowest growth rate predictions of any major country. Even before the war the prediction was at best 2.9% compound annualised economic growth in the five years 2023-2028. Russia's economy is worth about 65% of the UK's, 50% of Germany's and about the same size as the combined turnover of Walmart, Amazon, Exxon and Apple. The US economy is 13 times that of Russia's.

To put this into perspective the US economy is $28 trillion and is expected to grow at 3.8% compound, Germany 3.2% and the UK 5% compound (these are nominal figures so the UK is not going to be as impressive as it looks). Following the war, the real growth in Russia's economy is expected to be flat. The longer the war goes on the longer sanctions bite, productivity wanes and Russia's stockpile is wasted. As @L1ttledrummergirl says, there will be no material increase.

Effectiveness depends on what the money is spent on. If Russia had waged a war on Nato things would look very different for them than it does today. Ukraine has not been a walkover. Russia has been stopped with only a trickle of arms from the West. Even 6% of GDP is not going to cut it. Nato countries are rich enough to match that in military aid and I suspect they will continue to do so despite political posturing.

With regard to various reports about Canada and F-16 training - like the UK they're another nation that has never operated the type so what is being provided must be generic in nature.

My guess is that they, like the UK have hi tech simulators that can achieve a significant portion of training.

I see the al-Assads have turned up in China…

At a basic level, possibly, maybe for technical training and some generic training but not the aircraft specific stuff for the pilots.

Whilst with "hi tech" simulators you can maybe reconfigure some displays to switch between variants of a different type (e.g. to reflect different engines) it's pretty much impossible to significantly reconfigure the actual hard ergonomics of a flight deck/cockpit - by that I mean the really really important things in aircraft such as switch and control positions.

In the case of F-18 (Canadians main fighter) vs F-16 there's even a significant difference in how you do the driving - The F-16 is sidestick, the F-18 is conventional centre "stick".

Interesting first post @Jerryborree.

I don't see fear that Trump will get reelected, it's just noise from a small minority.

Another donation I think.

Right, not sure I donated yet from SS-whateverhisname was. Double donation then.

You know, if someone was secretly pro-Ukraine, posting the vatnik stuff is a good way to collection donations :D