Ukraine Invasion: Part 41

[MagicFox]

Welcome to thread 41 with new guidance thrashed out with regular posters to keep us on track :-) Hope you all approve!

1. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

1. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

1. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

The WSJ article is a hard read. It’s the fact that it’s tough already and they still haven’t come to the main line of defence we have heard so much about.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-15-2023

Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three directions and reportedly made gains on June 15.
• Russian milbloggers continue to credit alleged superior Russian electronic warfare (EW) capabilities and defensive doctrine for Russian forces’ successful defenses against Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in southern Ukraine.
• Russian forces conducted another series of drone and missile strikes across Ukraine early in the morning of June 15.
• The Russian military is advancing initial efforts to stand up new corps- and army-level formations to implement Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s announced intent to conduct large-scale force restructuring by 2026, though these new formations are not yet staffed and operational.
• Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov deployed Chechen “Akhmat” special forces to border areas in Belgorod Oblast, likely as part of a continued effort to align himself with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).
• Western states may provide F-16 fighter aircraft and additional Leopard tanks to Ukraine in the coming months. [no shit sherlock]
• Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Ukrainian and Russian forces conducted ground attacks near Bakhmut, and Russian forces have gained territory as of June 15.
• Ukrainian and Russian forces reportedly continued limited ground attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russian forces are beginning to decommission specialized company-size assault units and transferring their personnel to volunteer formations.
• Ukrainian partisans reportedly sabotaged a railway in occupied Melitopol, though ISW has observed no visual confirmation or Russian corroboration of the attack.

This assessment of Russian deaths was discussed on R4 Today this morning (sorry if it's already covered). https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-829ea0ba-5b42-499b-ad40-6990f2c4e5d0

I keep reminding myself it could be weeks or even months before we have a clear understanding of what is happening in Ukraine and that the main assault has not yet started.

It was never going to be easy.

Very much agree with all of that...

Kyiv Independent Telegram

Ukraine makes gains 1 week into counteroffensive but decisive battle yet to begin (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-makes-gains-1-week-into-counteroffensive-but-decisive-battle-yet-to-begin/)

⚡️Military: Ukrainian forces advance (https://kyivindependent.com/military-ukrainian-forces-advance-up-to-1-km-near-vuhledar/) up to 1 km near Vuhledar.

⚡️Defense Ministry: Russia redeploying troops (https://kyivindependent.com/military-ukrainian-forces-advance-up-to-1-km-near-vuhledar/)from the south to the east of Ukraine, near Bakhmut.

⚡️Energoatom: UN nuclear chief starts his visit (https://kyivindependent.com/energoatom-un-nuclear-chief-starts-his-visit-to-russian-occupied-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant/) to Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. [as of yesterday 12:02]

⚡️Media: Biden allegedly (https://kyivindependent.com/media-biden-allegedly-supports-simplified-procedure-for-ukraines-nato-accession/) supports simplified procedure for Ukraine's NATO accession.

⚡️South African president arrives in Ukraine (https://kyivindependent.com/south-african-president-arrives-in-ukraine-set-to-meet-zelensky/) to meet Zelensky.
South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa arrived in Ukraine on June 16 under the African Peace Mission for negotiations with President Volodymyr Zelensky.

⚡️Austin made opening remarks (https://kyivindependent.com/austin-makes-opening-remarks-at-ramstein-summit-outlines-main-issues-on-agenda/) at Ramstein summit, outlines main issues on agenda.
Austin outlined the main issues on the meeting's agenda, including the training of Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets as well as joint efforts to sustain Leopard tanks used by Kyiv's forces, bolster the country's air defense and ensure Ukraine can protect itself in the future.

⚡️Ukraine to receive billions (https://kyivindependent.com/austin-reveals-which-countries-promised-aid-to-ukraine-at-ramstein/) in military aid after Ramstein summit.

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on June 15 that the U.S., the U.K., Denmark, the Netherlands, Canada, Germany, Norway, and Italy pledged new military aid packages to Ukraine at the 13th Ramstein-format summit of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) in Brussels.

⚡️4 countries pledge air defense (https://kyivindependent.com/4-countries-pledge-air-defense-equipment-to-ukraine/) missiles, equipment to Ukraine at Ramstein summit.
The defense minister of the U.S., the U.K., Denmark, and the Netherlands announced in a press release on June 15 that they will jointly and urgently provide Ukraine with air defense equipment.

⚡️Denmark, Norway to give additional 10,500 artillery shells (https://kyivindependent.com/denmark-norway-to-give-additional-10-500-artillery-shells-to-ukraine/) to Ukraine.

⚡️Media: Denmark, Netherlands buy 14 Leopard 2 tanks (https://kyivindependent.com/media-denmark-netherlands-buy-new-leopard/) for Ukraine.

⚡️Spain to transfer 20 APCs, 4 Leopard tanks (https://kyivindependent.com/spain-to-transfer/) to Ukraine.

⚡️Politico: Bulgaria wants to join (https://kyivindependent.com/politico-2/) EU ammunition for Ukraine initiative.
Bulgaria's Defense Minister Todor Tagarev told Politico on June 15 that Sofia aims to join the EU's initiative to supply $2.2 billion worth of artillery shells to Ukraine.

⚡️Authorities: Flood water level in Kherson Oblast drops to less than 2 meters (https://kyivindependent.com/authorities-flood-water-level-in-kherson-oblast-drops-to-less-than-2-meters/).
Regional governor Oleksandr Prokudin reported that 1923 homes on the west bank of the Dnipro River are still flooded.

⚡️Media: Reznikov promises to investigate (https://kyivindependent.com/media-reznikov-promises-to-investigate-use-of-belgian-weapons-in-russia/) use of Belgian weapons in Russia. Ukraine's Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov and his Belgian counterpart Ludivine Dedonder discussed the alleged use of Belgian weapons by anti-Kremlin militias on Russian territory, news agency Belga said on June 15

⚡️Russia confirms plans to hold sham elections (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-confirms-plans-to-hold-sham-elections-in-occupied-ukrainian-territories/) in occupied Ukrainian territories.
Russia's central election commission has confirmed plans to hold so-called elections in four Ukrainian regions that Moscow claims to have annexed while having only partial control over them. The commission set the "vote" date for Sept. 10.

⚡️Reuters: African delegation might ask Russia to withdraw (https://kyivindependent.com/african-delegation-to-ask-russia-to-withdraw-troops-from-ukraine/)troops** from Ukraine.

⚡️UNICEF: 20 children killed, 69 wounded (https://kyivindependent.com/un-20-children-killed-69-wounded-in-ukraine-due-to-mine-explosions-since-full-scale-invasion/)in Ukraine due to mine explosions.

⚡️Ukraine says Russia abducts 150 children (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-children-luhansk/) from occupied Luhansk Oblast.

⚡️Update: Death toll (https://kyivindependent.com/update-death-toll-of-russian-attack-on-kryvyi-rih-rises-to-13/)of Russian attack on Kryvyi Rih rises to 13.

⚡️Media: Hungary's government was not aware (https://kyivindependent.com/rfe-rl-hungarys-government/) of Ukrainian POWs transfer.
High-ranking members of the Hungarian government were not aware of the plan to send 11 Ukrainian prisoners of war from Russia to Hungary, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty wrote on June 15, citing its sources.

⚡️Ukrainian pilots to start F-16 (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-pilots-to-receive-f-16-training-in-denmark/) training in Denmark.

'It was hell.' Mother speaks of rescuing her child from Russian captivity (https://kyivindependent.com/it-was-hell-mother-speaks-of-rescuing-her-child-from-russian-captivity/)
Like thousands of other children in the occupied territories of Ukraine, Tetiana Bodak's son became a victim of one of the darkest outcomes of Russia's full-scale war — the forced deportation of Ukrainian children.

⚡️US Air National Guardsman responsible for leaked Pentagon files indicted for 'mishandling secrets' (https://kyivindependent.com/air-national-guardsman-responsible-for-leaked-pentagon-files/).’
U.S. federal grand jury indicted Air National Guardsman Jack Teixeira on June 15, according to a statement from the U.S. Department of Justice. Teixeira, age 21, was arrested on April 13 in relation to a massive U.S. intelligence leak.

The success of Ukraine’s reconstruction depends not only on securing funding and international support, but also on ensuring the country’s financial framework is fully equipped to tackle the challenges ahead.
The Centre for Financial Crime and Security Studies (CFCS) at RUSI and the Better Regulation Delivery Office (BRDO) have organized a half-day conference on Monday, June 19, aiming to explore various aspects, including how to prepare for the extensive scope of operations, eliminate vulnerabilities susceptible to money laundering, and demonstrate the system's resilience to international partners.
🗓️ Monday, 19 June, 12:30-17:15 BST / 14:30-19:15 EEST
📍 1 Birdcage Walk, London.
👍 Register here to attend in person or online. (https://www.rusi.org/events/conferences/securing-integrity-and-resilience-ukraines-financial-system)

Significant numbers of hardware lost again.
Ragnar Gudmundsson
[email protected]
AT ragnarbjartur
·
59m

HIGHLIGHTS FOR JUN 16:
■ More strikes but fewer combat engagements reported
■ Troop losses slightly up between days
■ Double-digit drone, artillery, APV, vehicle & tank losses
■ Oryx update (25:10/)

wow. Warren Buffett's son Howard visited the front lines!

Tim White
AT TWMCLtd
·
11h

A surpising visitor to the front line in #Ukraine today was Howard Buffett. He's the son of billionaire philanthropist Warren Buffett and was in #Avdiivka to support humanitarian aid for the remaining residents, some of whom Buffett met.

Reuters: African delegation might ask Russia to withdraw (https://kyivindependent.com/african-delegation-to-ask-russia-to-withdraw-troops-from-ukraine/)troops** from Ukraine.

Ummm....are they also in the bridge selling business.

Given certain African leader's statements about this war and political inclinations would is it fair to point out there WTFs doing the rounds about this visit.....

Still at least they got the full experience when they arrived..

https://www.reuters.com/world/south-african-president-arrives-ukraine-peace-mission-2023-06-16/

https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1669635528768069632

UNITED24 Media Telegram

The counteroffensive of Ukrainian troops has been ongoing for a week, but Kyiv has deployed only 3 of the 12 prepared brigades, and the main battles are still ahead, Western analysts believe, — Reuters

It is important that the water in the pond at the Zaporizhzhia NPP remains at the current level, — Director General of the IAEA, Raphael Grossi.

For the first time in history, Israel is selling over two hundred Merkava Mk2 and Mk3 tanks to two unnamed European countries.

Today, President Zelenskyy addressed the Swiss parliament to discuss the issue of unity in overcoming the consequences of terrible war crimes. [a lot of the room looked empty :( ]

🛫Jens Stoltenberg stated the Ukrainian pilots had already started their training.

☢️ Thirty-two sites with chemicals, oil and gasoline have been flooded due to Russia’s destruction of the Kakhovka Dam, – Greenpeace. [I am disgusted at the Western leaders' lack of response to this]

❗️The European Parliament adopted a resolution on the official invitation of Ukraine to NATO.
425 voted in favor, 38 against, and 42—abstention.
The European Parliament expects that "the accession process will begin after the war's end and will be completed as soon as possible.

Germany handed over two armored demining vehicles "Wisent 1" based on the tank "Leopard 1"

Russia fired missiles at Kyiv on the day when an African delegation with a peacekeeping mission arrived in the Ukrainian capital.

The Kremlin wants to nationalize companies that sell their business on the Russian market, — Financial Times.
According to journalists who refer to a secret order of the President of the Russian Federation, Putin instructed the government to develop a law that gives the state the first right to buy at a "significant discount" the assets of Western companies leaving Russia.
It is assumed that in the future, these assets will be offered for resale to Russian companies, and the profit from the deals will go to the budget. The document also stipulates that asset buyers must be wholly owned by Russia or be in the process of removing all foreign shareholders. The new owners must sell 20% of the company on the Russian stock market.
According to the publication's sources, these and even more "hazardous" measures (up to the complete nationalization of companies) are being discussed by the government's economic bloc in response to Western sanctions against Russia.

There are signs that the Russians will transfer ZNPP-5 to a "cold" shutdown after all, — "Energoatom"
"The employees of the ZNPP can theoretically initiate the transfer of unit No. 5 to a "cold" shutdown, but physically they cannot do this because the Russians control the situation. The so-called plant management is not yet complying with the orders of SNRIU, but, according to our information, they are preparing to transfer stop this unit. The "cold" shutdown itself is the safest state of operation of the power unit under any conditions," said Petro Kotin, President of "Energoatom."

🇩🇪 Germany will "immediately" provide Ukraine with 64 more guided missiles for Patriot systems, — Minister of Defense Pistorius

Turkish Baykar successfully tested the Akinci attack drone with a Ukrainian engine. He rose into the air and fired a new missile with a "smart" HGK-82 guidance system at the target.

Lloyd Austin commented on the loss of Western equipment by the Ukrainian military during the counteroffensive:
"I think the Russians have already shown these five machines 1,000 times from ten angles. But, to be honest, Ukraine still has enough combat potential."

Works of art were secretly taken out of Ukraine to protect them from the war, temporarily they are in the Louvre, — AFP.

From the idiotic SVR channel :P

Dear subscribers and guests of the channel! Today, attending physicians informed Russian President Vladimir Putin that he had metastases in his brain. Doctors have known about this for some time, but the President was informed today. Putin's oncology is progressing and today the treatment does not give the expected results.

I don't believe a syllable of it.

Anyone have any more info on the Israeli tanks?

Live: Ukraine Telegram

The Russian media spread information that the head of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov, was allegedly in a hospital in Berlin after a Russian missile "hit the office next to his." The Russians created a whole story about Budanov's "severe injury" and how he was transported by helicopter to Poland and then by American evacuation plane to Germany.
DIU spokesman Andriy Yusov denied such claims, refusing to comment on "Putin's propaganda."

After the explosions in Kyiv, a spokesman for the South African president said that the mission of African leaders was "going well and according to plan."
In addition to the South African president, the presidents of Zambia, Senegal, Comoros, the Prime Minister of Egypt, and the Ugandan Foreign Minister are visiting Kyiv.

Putin is planning a visit to Turkey at the invitation of Turkish leader Recep Erdogan, but there are no specific dates yet - Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov

Norway announces that it has just delivered another 7000 rounds of artillery shells to Ukraine and will soon, in cooperation with Denmark, deliver 9000 more

A group of volunteers from Syria was spotted in the ranks of the Russian 98th Airborne Division.

❗️The Russian FSB plans to forge "Russian citizenship" for the leadership of the Ukrainian Defense and Security Forces, their families, and other Ukrainian officials in the near future, the SBU reports.

Putin instructed the Russian health ministry to create a separate psychiatric institute for the study of LGBT people, as well as a number of other "behavioral areas, including social behavior."

🇭🇷 The Croatian government has recognized the Holodomor of 1932-1933 as genocide of the Ukrainian people.

🇺🇦🇭🇺 Ukraine has established the location of 11 Ukrainian prisoners of war handed over by Russia to Hungary.
We already know their names and the route they were taken to Hungary. The Commissioner for Missing Persons, Oleh Kotenko, noted that until now there was no information about 7 of the 11 Ukrainians at all.

💔 The boy holds a chair in his hands - the only thing from his home that survived the high water in Kherson region. Behind him are the ruins of the family home - all that remained after the Russians blew up the dam of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant

Reuters:

Israel plans first sale of Merkava tank to European country
Reuters
June 15, 20232:50 PM GMT+2Updated a day agoJERUSALEM, June 15 (Reuters) - Israel is in talks to sell its Merkava tank to two countries, one of them in Europe, in what would be the first export of the flagship fighting vehicle, a Defence Ministry official said on Thursday.
Introduced after Israel's armoured corps suffered heavy losses against Egypt and Syria in a 1973 war, and with a view to reducing reliance on foreign arms supplies, the Merkava - biblical Hebrew for "chariot" - is now in its fourth generation.
Yair Kulas, head of the Defence Ministry export coordination department SIBAT, said record demand for Israeli products was due in part to countries wanting to replenish their arsenals after providing Ukraine with weapons for its war with Russia.
As a result, he told Calcalist newspaper, Israel was exporting surplus systems it had not previously sold abroad, including earlier-generation Merkavas.
"There are two prospective countries with which we are in advanced negotiations (on a tank sale)," Kulas said. "I am barred from naming them, but one is on the European continent."
Israel has provided Ukraine with humanitarian and diplomatic assistance but not arms, mindful of the need to keep open channels with Moscow given Russia's clout in next-door Syria.

Can't remember who linked it, it might have been someone on this thread in which case sorry! It seems that Israel is concerned that Russia is selling a lot of stuff to Iran.

Israel told the Russian government it is highly concerned about its growing military cooperation with Iran in the war in Ukraine and the possibility it will provide Tehran with advanced weapon systems,
https://www.axios.com/2023/06/14/israel-iran-netanyahu-protest-ukraine-cooperation

They forgot to include the daily update on Putin's stools.

Israel has provided Ukraine with humanitarian and diplomatic assistance but not arms, mindful of the need to keep open channels with Moscow given Russia's clout in next-door Syria.

and also given the number of Russian dispora in Israel....

Hopefully actions follow words. So great for wealthy philanthropists to take a strong stance in supporting Ukraine.

Wouldn't it be amazing if this spurs a side stream charity arms race amongst those tech billionnaires to support Ukraine's defence rather than an arms race to space.

❗️The Russian FSB plans to forge "Russian citizenship" for the leadership of the Ukrainian Defense and Security Forces, their families, and other Ukrainian officials in the near future, the SBU reports.

What does that mean in practice?

Dom Nicholls from the Telegraph has published a video commentary on the events of the counter-offensive. It's about seven minutes and well worth a look. He points out that the offensive operates at multiple levels, and early setbacks become lessons learned as they move forward.

Thank you @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

I was wondering if this move by the Israelis may release more euro tanks or whether its just replenishment as stated.

I understand the reasons why Israel wouldn't want to announce it like that if the intention is to benefit Ukraine

There is a move in Ukraine to say that high officials cannot hold a Russian passport. So it could be used to smear people?

Also it means that if Russia captures them they can claim they are traitors.

But it seems a very odd move, maybe there's something else behind it.

@Surplus2requirements someone on Twitter said that one of the two countries was Morocco, the other an unnamed EU country. Not sure of the accuracy. They are far from new tanks, 1980's and 1990's I believe.

Of particular interest to @notimagain, Sweden is going to train Ukrainian pilots on the Gripen.

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1669703416514224129

Very interesting, many thanks..

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar I read somewhere (maybe here?) that it's Merkava 2 and 3s, they're on their 4th gen now.

They must be fairly useful if a European country want them as opposed to Leopard 2s which I thought they all had access to.

I thought perhaps they're considered an upgrade to Leopard 1s but I may be way off the mark, I've read too much, my brain hurts and I wish for Ukraine to be tooled up and spikey.

I wish for Ukraine to be tooled up and spikey. yes to this!