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Ukraine Invasion: Part 40

994 replies

MagicFox · 13/05/2023 15:17

40 threads, still here πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

OP posts:
Thread gallery
221
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 26/05/2023 10:01

AT Cuthbert_Shaw keeps an updated list of Russian nuclear threats.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 40
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 26/05/2023 14:58

Unknown how reliable this is but it seems the ship that was attacked a couple of days ago was damaged more than Russia first acknowledged.

Intelschizo
AT OSINTMISCIF

Russian telegram is saying this morning Ivan Khurs was attacked by five instead of three kamikaze boats and that two hit the vessel and that she is severely damaged and at risk of sinking. They go on to further state casualties. 1 officer killed 5 enlisted killed. Two of them were thrown overboard and the 4 drowned in the engine room.

https://twitter.com/OSINTMISCIF

MissConductUS · 26/05/2023 15:45

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 26/05/2023 14:58

Unknown how reliable this is but it seems the ship that was attacked a couple of days ago was damaged more than Russia first acknowledged.

Intelschizo
AT OSINTMISCIF

Russian telegram is saying this morning Ivan Khurs was attacked by five instead of three kamikaze boats and that two hit the vessel and that she is severely damaged and at risk of sinking. They go on to further state casualties. 1 officer killed 5 enlisted killed. Two of them were thrown overboard and the 4 drowned in the engine room.

Ukraine released a video purported from the drone's camera as it hit the ship.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1661720194673156097

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1661720194673156097

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 26/05/2023 17:29

No words to this really:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-pushing-ukraine-cease-fire-gets-cool-reception-in-europe-614774dd

The Chinese envoy dispatched to push Beijing’s peace plan for Ukraine carried a clear message: U.S. allies in Europe should assert their autonomy and urge an immediate cease-fire, leaving Russia in possession of the parts of its smaller neighbor that it now occupies, according to Western officials familiar with talks in capitals across the continent.

Diplomat Li Hui, who has visited Kyiv, Warsaw, Berlin, Paris and Brussels this month, urged European governments to view China as an economic alternative to Washington and said they should move quickly to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine before it spreads, those officials said. Li was due to travel to Moscow on Friday.

China Seeks to Pry Europe Away From Washington

China’sΒ foreign minister is crisscrossing Europe this week, warning that European interests would be harmed by toeing the U.S.’s approach.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-seeks-to-pry-europe-away-from-washington-93d87afe?mod=article_inline

blueshoes · 26/05/2023 18:21

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 26/05/2023 17:29

No words to this really:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-pushing-ukraine-cease-fire-gets-cool-reception-in-europe-614774dd

The Chinese envoy dispatched to push Beijing’s peace plan for Ukraine carried a clear message: U.S. allies in Europe should assert their autonomy and urge an immediate cease-fire, leaving Russia in possession of the parts of its smaller neighbor that it now occupies, according to Western officials familiar with talks in capitals across the continent.

Diplomat Li Hui, who has visited Kyiv, Warsaw, Berlin, Paris and Brussels this month, urged European governments to view China as an economic alternative to Washington and said they should move quickly to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine before it spreads, those officials said. Li was due to travel to Moscow on Friday.

So much for China "respecting the sovereignty of all countries". All countries except Ukraine, it seems.

China is hardly neutral. It is trying to split the West and drive a wedge between Europe and US.

Disappointed but not surprised.

BringBackCoffeeCreams · 26/05/2023 18:32

notimagain · 26/05/2023 08:57

Err..My eyes aren’t what they were (dammit) but if my aircraft recognition skills are still up to be speed I’m calling that as a Saab Viggen….

Mighty fine aircraft in it’s time but been out of service over 15 years.

It's grey with wings and isn't a pigeon. That's my technical knowledge.

But the place is called Viggen Rastplats so I'll take your word for it.

MissConductUS · 26/05/2023 18:35

Just a month ago, a Chinese diplomat said that the former Soviet republics had no legal status.

Chinese ambassador sparks European outrage over suggestion former Soviet states don’t exist

I don't think remarks like this are an accident. I think China is saying what they really think as a way to gauge the backlash. They're just trying it on. In the first incident, the backlash was severe enough that they had to disavow the comments.

Chinese ambassador sparks European outrage over suggestion former Soviet states don't exist | CNN

European countries are demanding answers from Beijing after its top diplomat in Paris questioned the sovereignty of former Soviet republics, in comments that could undermine China's efforts to be seen as a potential mediator between Russia and Ukraine.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/24/china/china-ambassador-lu-shaye-baltic-soviet-states-europe-intl-hnk/index.html

TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 26/05/2023 18:39

I think you are exactly right MissConductUS.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 26/05/2023 20:26

I do too.

Ugh.

MissConductUS · 26/05/2023 20:54

China's interest in the whole mess is to make sure that Russia doesn't lose (however you want to define that) the war, and that they don't use nuclear weapons.

Like Russia, they also feel that only large, powerful countries have sovereignty. See Tibet, Hong Kong, etc. So they really have no respect for the former Soviet states and on some level, really don't think they are sovereign states. They can remain independent until Russia wishes otherwise. Nato is the only firewall here.

blueshoes · 26/05/2023 22:48

MissConductUS · 26/05/2023 20:54

China's interest in the whole mess is to make sure that Russia doesn't lose (however you want to define that) the war, and that they don't use nuclear weapons.

Like Russia, they also feel that only large, powerful countries have sovereignty. See Tibet, Hong Kong, etc. So they really have no respect for the former Soviet states and on some level, really don't think they are sovereign states. They can remain independent until Russia wishes otherwise. Nato is the only firewall here.

MissConductUS, you are spot on there. China must define sovereignty differently, in that some (big) countries are more sovereign than others. This explains how they can make cognitives leaps that make sense to them but not others.

Fundamentally, like Russia, they do not respect the Rule of Law, which exists to protect individual rights and weaker members. They only respect strength because Might is Right.

Hence why the converse is so important that Russia must not win in Ukraine because it will only embolden China to take Taiwan.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 26/05/2023 23:17

Worrying reports - they started earlier today and now they are repeated

Defence intelligence of Ukraine
AT DI_Ukraine

Russians are preparing massive provocation and imitation of the accident at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in the nearest hours. They are planning to attack the territory of the ZNPP. After that, they will announce the leakage of the radioactive substances. [which is not the same as there actually being a leak]

The Russians have a lot of hardware there. Some technicians are reported to have been forcibly evacuated elsewhere. Of the remainder, they are not allowed into some of the crucial rooms.

Those who try are reported to have been beaten up to the point of hospitalization and in at least one case, death.

The Russians have been stealing and removing a lot of things from the occupied area around Zap' generally.

Realistically speaking it is not certain whether the Russians have plans to cause an Incident or whether they are simply throwing their weight around and making threats.

An IAEA team has been there for some months. There are few reports of how they see matters, though one rumour in the last couple of days says that they have been prevented from inspecting certain areas.

Winds are mostly from the North at the moment.

@BringBackCoffeeCreams has your husband heard anything? Or anyone else?

https://twitter.com/DI_Ukraine

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 26/05/2023 23:18

Russians are preparing massive provocation and imitation of the accident at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in the nearest hours. They are planning to attack the territory of the ZNPP. After that, they will announce the leakage of the radioactive substances.

Sorry this was the Twitter report. Everything else is my commentary.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 26/05/2023 23:25

It's very possible that none of this will happen. But the Russians at the ZNPP are not a good thing.

notimagain · 27/05/2023 08:16

BringBackCoffeeCreams · 26/05/2023 18:32

It's grey with wings and isn't a pigeon. That's my technical knowledge.

But the place is called Viggen Rastplats so I'll take your word for it.

Ah..eye’s might not be so bad after all..thanks…

DrBlackbird · 27/05/2023 09:43

Russians are preparing massive provocation and imitation of the accident at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in the nearest hours. They are planning to attack the territory of the ZNPP. After that, they will announce the leakage of the radioactive substances

What would be achieved by reporting a pretend leak? As a β€˜reminder’ of what could happen if Putin so chose?

Everything about the Russian invasion and subsequent devastation of people and infrastructure including targeting hospitals, places of culture, vulnerable Ukrainians epitomises an incredibly savage narcissism. Not just an attempt at beating (wiping out) a population into submission but a childish if we can’t have it, neither can you approach to warfare. Maybe this is most warfare?

Without wishing to fear monger, but is it so far fetched to think if Moscow felt Russia was losing ground it might resort to actual sabotage of the ZNPP?

And I wonder what the Russia supporting Ukrainians in the Donbas think of Russia now? Would they still want to be part of Russia after seeing what Russian forces have done to their region?

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 27/05/2023 10:15

Much more than nuclear war, this worries me.

Your last paragraph, from what I gather the years of propaganda still have a very strong influence and many still blame Ukraine. But @MMBaranova and @Mb76 would know much more.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 27/05/2023 10:53

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-26-2023

Note: The data cutoff for this product was 1:30pm ET on May 26. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the May 27 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Key Takeaways

  • Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that Wagner forces continue to hand over positions in Bakhmut to the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and withdraw from the city.
  • Ukrainian sources claim that Wagner forces are still present in Bakhmut and that the tempo of Russian offensive operations around the city continues to decrease.
  • Continued successful limited Ukrainian counterattacks on Bakhmut’s flanks may complicate the Russian relief in place operation in Bakhmut.
  • Russian forces conducted a large-scale missile and drone strike across Ukraine on May 25 and 26.
  • The Kremlin is likely reviving its information campaign to coerce the West into forcing Ukraine to accept concessions and negotiate on terms favorable to Russia.
  • The Wagner Group reportedly exchanged 106 Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) for an unspecified number of Russian POWs on May 25, suggesting that Wagner may have conducted the exchange independently of the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).
  • Russian forces continued limited offensive operations northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
  • Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk front.
  • Russian forces continued to target Ukrainian positions in southern Ukraine.
  • Russian officials are continuing to form new volunteer formations to defend Russian regions that border Ukraine.
  • Russian occupation officials continuing attempts to erase Ukrainian cultural heritage by looting Ukrainian artifacts.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 40
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 27/05/2023 11:10

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚑️ Ukraine's military intelligence says (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-military-intelligence-says-russia-planning-large-scale-provocation-at-occupied-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant/) Russia planning large-scale provocation at occupied nuclear plant.

⚑️Canada announces new military aid package (https://kyivindependent.com/canadian-defense-ministry-announces-new-military-aid-package-for-ukraine/) for Ukraine, including ammunition and an expansion of the training programs for Ukrainian soldiers, on May 25.

⚑️Dutch PM: Netherlands 'seriously considering (https://kyivindependent.com/dutch-pm-says-seriously-considering-sending-f16s/)' giving F-16s to Ukraine.
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said at a press conference on May 26 that the Netherlands was "seriously considering" giving F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, Reuters reported.

⚑️Military: Russia uses drones to identify air defenses for ballistic missile strikes (https://kyivindependent.com/military-russia-uses-drones-to-identify-air-defenses-for-ballistic-missile-strikes/).

Russian missile strike on Dnipro clinic kills 2, injures 30 (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-1-dead-15-injured-in-attack-on-dnipro-clinic/)

⚑️Ukraine's Supreme Court elects new head. (kyivindependent.com/ukraines-supreme-court-elects-new-head/)
Stanislav Kravchenko was elected as the new head of Ukraine's Supreme Court on May 26 after former Head Vsevolod Kniaziev was charged with corruption.

⚑️UK Defense Ministry: Russia's top proxy in Crimea likely concerned (https://kyivindependent.com/uk-defense-ministry-russia-sees-rising-number-of-paramilitary-groups-since-its-invasion-of-ukraine/)* about the military's ability to defend it.*

⚑️the human rights group CrimeaSOS wrote on May 25 that 38 Crimean political prisoners in critical health condition caused by the inhumane imprisonment environment (https://kyivindependent.com/ngo-38-crimean-political-prisoners-in-critical-health-condition/).

⚑️WSJ: Ukraine, NATO dismiss Chinese peace plan (https://kyivindependent.com/wsj-ukraine-nato-dismiss-chinese-peace-plan-set-to-benefit-russia/) set to benefit Russia.
Western officials pushed back against China's calls for an "immediate" ceasefire in Ukraine during the European tour of Chinese Special Representative for Eurasian Affairs Li Hui, the Wall Street Journal reported on May 26.
Freezing the conflict would essentially mean that occupied Ukrainian territories remain under Russian control.

⚑️ Media: Ukraine asks (https://kyivindependent.com/media-ukraine-asks-germany-for-taurus-cruise-missiles/) Germany for Taurus cruise missiles.
A German Defense Ministry spokesperson confirmed that Ukraine has submitted a request asking Germany to supply long-range Taurus cruise missiles, Spiegel reported.

⚑️Zelensky says Ukraine doing its best to procure (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-ukraine-is-doing-everything-possible-to/) air defense following latest attack.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said on May 26 in the wake of Russia's latest missile attack that Ukraine was doing "everything possible" to procure more advanced air defense.

⚑️Media: Explosion reported (https://kyivindependent.com/media-loud-explosion-reported-in-russian-occupied-berdiansk/) in Russian-occupied Berdiansk.
Ukrainian media outlets reported that a loud explosion took place in the Russian-occupied city of Berdiansk, located in Ukraine's southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, on the morning of May 27. [this seems to be a big one]

⚑️Explosion reported (https://kyivindependent.com/explosion-reported-in-russian-occupied-mariupol/) in Russian-occupied Mariupol.
There was an explosion on May 26 near Azovstal, a steel plant in Russian-occupied Mariupol, the exiled Mariupol city council reported.

⚑️Serviceman killed in car accident (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainska-pravda-judge-kills-national-guardsman-in-car-accident/)with allegedly drunk judge driving.

⚑️US Treasury sanctions (https://kyivindependent.com/us-treasury-sanctions-head-of-wagner-operations-in-mali/) head of Wagner operations in Mali

⚑️128 children evacuated (+families) (https://kyivindependent.com/128-children-evacuated-from-settlements-in-donetsk-oblast-due-to-active-hostilities/)from settlements in Donetsk Oblast due to active hostilities.

⚑️ WHO has recorded (https://kyivindependent.com/who-has-confirmed-974-attacks-against-health-care-in-ukraine-since-russias-full-scale-invasion/) 974 attacks against health care in Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion.

Emphasis on destroying hardware again. + 10 cruise missiles and no less than 31 UAVs

Ukraine Invasion: Part 40
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 27/05/2023 12:26

UNITED24 Media Telegram

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ The United States made it clear to Ukraine that they do not want to facilitate attacks on the territory of the Russian Federation, said the spokesman for the National Security Council of the White House, John Kirby.

The British registrar canceled the certification of the owner of the largest "shadow fleet" of tankers for Russian oil, β€” Reuters.
Since June 3, Lloyd's Register has revoked the certificates of 21 ships of the Indian company Gatik Ship Management.
Earlier, the American Insurance Club refused to insure the vessels of Gatik Ship Management.
Kitts & Nevis International Ship Registry de-flags 36 of the company's ships.

πŸ‡²πŸ‡© EU ambassadors approved sanctions against Moldovan individuals involved in the destabilization of Moldova and undermining the territorial integrity of Ukraine, β€” RFE/RL journalist Rikard Jozviak

πŸ‡§πŸ‡· President of Brazil Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said that he refused to come to Russia at the invitation of Putin

On May 26, the small armored artillery boat "Bucha" was handed over to the military boat depot of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The boat will be part of the river flotilla in the Kyiv region. One of the features of this boat is low visual optical-electronic, radar and thermal visibility. It is equipped with a system of protection against enemy aiming weapons and a system of automatic installation of smoke and heat curtains.

❗️ Ukrainian military began training on Abrams tanks, β€” New York Times.
"The training is expected to last from 10 to 12 weeks. The first group included 400 people. The US Ministry of Defense sent 31 tanks to Germany to train Ukrainians," the publication writes.

The Court of Arbitration for Sport upheld UEFA's decision to ban Russian football clubs from participating in competitions held under the auspices of the union.
The court believes that the admission of Russian football teams to the competition may negatively affect the safety of athletes and spectators.

Pope Francis said that the return of the occupied Ukrainian territories by Russia is a "political problem", and in order to achieve peace, the parties must "talk to each other" [oh, because talking to Russia achieves so much and their word can be trusted!]

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the Johns Hopkins Class of 2023 via livestream during the university's Commencement ceremony.

NATO is thinking of offering Ukraine a deepened partnership without specifics on accession, β€” Euractiv
It is proposed, in particular, to create a Ukraine-NATO Council, which will allow Kyiv to initiate meetings (currently, Ukraine is invited only for discussions).
This format will open an opportunity for deepening cooperation in the areas of intelligence exchange, joint exercises, investments in the defense industry, and increasing the operational interoperability of the armed forces.
In these discussions, some NATO countries point out that the NATO-Russia Council still exists, although there have been no meetings for a long time, but Ukraine still does not have such a format of cooperation with the Alliance.
In backroom conversations, Ukrainian officials admit that there is absolutely no reason to hope for accession to NATO soon, but they ask for a strong signal from the allies

Former British Prime Minister Johnson told former US President Trump about the importance of Ukraine's victory, – Politico.
"Donald Trump and Boris Johnson met this week to discuss the situation in Ukraine and the vital importance of a Ukrainian victory," Johnson's spokesman said.

Yesterday the world lost an amazing talented woman β€” Tina Turner. It’s a significant loss for every music fan in the world.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 27/05/2023 12:53

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Numerous violations of European law by Hungary make it unsuitable for the rotating EU presidency in 2024 - a resolution of this kind is to be adopted by MEPs next week, Euractiv reports (www.euractiv.com/section/politics/opinion/the-brief-a-march-to-the-hexit/).

πŸ‡―πŸ‡΅ The Japanese government has announced a new package of sanctions against Russia. It includes 17 people and 78 companies from Russia, as well as 7 Ukrainian citizens who assist the Russians in the occupation.

The Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Army, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, has published a high-quality video of Ukrainian soldiers with Western Leopard 2 tanks
Zaluzhnyi wrote "It's time to get back what's ours"

https://twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1662358186261725185


from Nexta:

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic announced that he had resigned as leader of the ruling party.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 40
BringBackCoffeeCreams · 27/05/2023 12:54

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 26/05/2023 23:17

Worrying reports - they started earlier today and now they are repeated

Defence intelligence of Ukraine
AT DI_Ukraine

Russians are preparing massive provocation and imitation of the accident at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in the nearest hours. They are planning to attack the territory of the ZNPP. After that, they will announce the leakage of the radioactive substances. [which is not the same as there actually being a leak]

The Russians have a lot of hardware there. Some technicians are reported to have been forcibly evacuated elsewhere. Of the remainder, they are not allowed into some of the crucial rooms.

Those who try are reported to have been beaten up to the point of hospitalization and in at least one case, death.

The Russians have been stealing and removing a lot of things from the occupied area around Zap' generally.

Realistically speaking it is not certain whether the Russians have plans to cause an Incident or whether they are simply throwing their weight around and making threats.

An IAEA team has been there for some months. There are few reports of how they see matters, though one rumour in the last couple of days says that they have been prevented from inspecting certain areas.

Winds are mostly from the North at the moment.

@BringBackCoffeeCreams has your husband heard anything? Or anyone else?

Just asked him and he's heard nothing.

BringBackCoffeeCreams · 27/05/2023 13:15

DH says this is fearmongering (from whoever is saying it not MN). The power plant has been shutdown since last September. So worse case scenario is that they bomb it which is realistically the only way to release radiation. This would produce a localised radiation problem not a widespread problem. He says you'd be looking to evacuate up to 10km around the plant and the radiation levels within that area would max be around 1% of the Chernobyl area.

So not good if you live there but not something for others to worry about beyond the fact it shows us how utterly fucking evil they are.

MMBaranova · 27/05/2023 13:23

Ducks / DrBlackbird: 'Identity' is a complex thing and who knows how Donbas Russian speakers feel if you drill down? My mum's family are mostly Dnipro-based, which is outside and to the west of Donbas as construed in modern times (Donestk and Luhansk Oblasts in de jure Ukraine). My relatives tend to speak Russian as a first language and whenever I have encountered their politics it has been in a range from Soviet Dreamland Communism (some of the old ones) through to hopeful west looking democrats of various types. None voiced Party of Regions / Opposition Bloc etc. views in my presence. Who knows though? That latter Yanukovych and beyond trend did especially draw support from Russian speakers. Back then.

I find the following thought trail helpful.

Man on left: President of Ireland. Man on right President with an English surname.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 40