Ukraine Invasion: Part 40

[MagicFox]

40 threads, still here 🇺🇦

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

I saw someone who's normally pretty reliable say that actually a lot of Ukrainian pilots have already been trained on F-16s. It's the first I've heard of it ... have you heard anything of this?

We know the USAF have done a training assessment done (reported previously) with very limited numbers on Ukrainian pilots but I'm highly sceptical to say the least that there's been much beyond that.

There were a blogs/articles kicking around in various places last year supposedly describing the antics of Ukrainian pilots in the States under Top Gun style training but TBH it didn't sound credible to me....

On a practical point you wouldn't train up a sizeable cohort of pilots on, say, the F-16 and then send them back to the Ukraine to either sit on the ground or almost worse still fly Mig-29s pending deliveries of the new type.....that's highly inefficient and almost literally a recipe for disaster.....

OTOH if this time next week the Ukrainians suddenly take delivery of a squadron of F-16s and are operating them the next day then, and only then, would I accept the rumours you've heard are true.

Well it'd be lovely if we do hear there's that squadron operating - and perfect timing - but yes, it's not something to hold your breath for.

It would be but I can't see it myself...

As a bit of overview proficiency on an aircraft type, especially a complex type, is highly perishable...if you're off the type for any length of time performance degrades quite quickly and you soon ( few weeks, month or two at most) start to needing rechecking, refreshing and retraining. The longer you are away from the type concerned the more retraining you need.

FWIW I'd say in an ideal world you'd want the first tranche of Ukrainian F-16 pilots coming out of training on the same day as the aircraft are available to be flown into theatre..so training would be phased to achieve that aim, though there's a war on etc so obviously the ideal may not be achievable.

Regarding that I was wondering about the timing of the counteroffensive. There have been a lot of Ukrainians trained in Europe etc now, and they have not yet been released into action. I imagine that they would been to see some action soon or they will lose their edge?

A much sharper problem for fighter pilots, but I imagine not insignificant for ordinary troops too.

I read somewhere recently that at least some of those completely green troops were being rotated to places like Bakhmut so that they would have some experience of being under fire and firing at the enemy. I can't recall where or if the source was credible, so take it for what it's worth.

I wonder if conscripts have been sent there. It makes sense to expose them to some combat (poor bastards).

Guess that the soldiers who were trained abroad were already professional soldiers with some experience though.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/24/7403711/

Claim in German publication Welt that "Skibitsky noted that the Crimean Bridge is still standing because Ukraine wants to give the Russians an opportunity to flee the peninsula."

This is an old and generally sound doctrine. It's also how Ukraine recaptured Kherson City.

Sun Tzu's Art of War

36 When you surround an army, leave an outlet free.

Do not press a desperate foe too hard.

This does not mean that the enemy is to be allowed to escape. The object, as Tu Mu puts it, is "to make him believe that there is a road to safety, and thus prevent his fighting with the courage of despair." Tu Mu adds pleasantly: "After that, you may crush him."

Sweden has announced they will train Ukrainian pilots to fly the Gripen, but their defense minister says they're unlikely to provide any.

That's a bit odd.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1661718170451734528

Tu Mu adds pleasantly: "After that, you may crush him."

Nicely phrased =)

He says it's unlikely they'll provide any that are currently in service as they're needed to defend Sweden. Pulling a few out of mothballs maybe? I live near the Gripen base and there's old ones all over the shop. There's even one on a pedestal in a nearby layby/picnic area.

Here it is.

If it disappears one day, you know where it's gone =)

😁

We see that Gripen (and the other planes on stalks beside the road) on our way through from Denmark to Stockholm and the Booze Cruise, every time we go to Finland.

The Crimean bridge was closed to traffic. The head of the occupation administration, Aksyonov, said that exercises were being conducted there. Meanwhile, Russian publics publish videos of smoke in the area of the bridge.

Perhaps exercises. A simulated attack with a layer of smoke to disguise marine UAV perhaps. That seems the best way to give UAVs that extra little bit of time they need - 50-100m or so - to reach the hull of a vessel. I wonder if Russia has picked up on this possibility and getting ready for it.

@Chatillon wouldn't it be funny if a marine UAV then really turned up.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-25-2023

Key Takeaways

• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin announced on May 25 that the Wagner Group began handing over its positions in Bakhmut to the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and claimed Wagner will entirely withdraw from the city on June 1. It remains unclear if Wagner will be able to withdraw the entirety of its contingent by June 1 and if Russian MoD troops will execute a successful relief in place.

• Russia and Belarus signed agreements formally advancing preparations to deploy Russian tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus as part of a longstanding effort to cement Russia’s de facto military control over Belarus, though Russia has not yet deployed nuclear weapons to Belarus and their possible deployment is highly unlikely to presage any Russian escalation.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin met with the leaders of the Eurasian Economic Union member states and several other post-Soviet heads of state at the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council in Moscow on May 25, likely to expand sanctions evasion opportunities.

• Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov announced that Russian officials have created seven territorial defense battalions in Belgorod Oblast as of May 24, likely in order to posture his engagement in the defense of Russian border areas following the May 22 all-Russian pro-Ukrainian raid into Belgorod Oblast.

• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin held a meeting with representatives of Russian oblasts bordering Ukraine to discuss fortifying border areas on May 24.

• Wagner and Russian forces have notably engaged in previous efforts to fortify border areas, and the recent Belgorod Oblast raid exposed major shortcomings in these efforts.

• Russian political strategist Konstantin Dolgov claimed on May 25 that he was fired as a result of his May 23 interview with Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin.

• Russia conducted another massive Shahed-131/136 drone strike across Ukraine on the night of May 24 to 25.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin continued attempts to portray Russia as an effective international mediator by mediating negotiations between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.

• Russian forces continued limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and south of Kreminna.

• Russian forces continued limited ground attacks around Bakhmut as Wagner Group forces reportedly began their withdrawal from frontline areas the city.

• Russian forces continued ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.

• Russian sources claimed that Russian forces shot down six drones over Crimea.

• Russian forces are reportedly continuing to recruit personnel with various diseases.

• Russian occupation officials continue to announce partnerships with various local Russian officials to improve the standard of living in occupied territories.

It seems Russia is trying to create a new economic block partly to avoid sanctions but certainly with an eye for future economic growth and ofc influence. Expanded from the ISW:

Russian President Vladimir Putin met with the leaders of the Eurasian Economic Union member states and several other post-Soviet heads of state at the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council in Moscow on May 25, likely to expand sanctions evasion opportunities. Armenian President Nikol Pashinyan, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, and Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov attended the meeting alongside leaders of non-Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) member states, including Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, and Tajik President Emomali Rahmon.[10] Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Executive Secretary Sergei Lebedev and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Secretary General Zhang Min also attended the meeting.[11] Putin, Pashinyan, and Tokayev all called on further development of the EAEU’s relationship with third-party countries, including the negotiation of free trade agreements with the United Arab Emirates, India, Egypt, Indonesia, Israel, and Iran.[12] Tokayev highlighted efforts to create new international transport routes to China, India, Pakistan, Iran, the Middle East, East Asia, and Southeast Asia.[13] Tokayev also offered to help Russia launch the 2873km Chelyabinsk-Bolshak-Iran high speed freight railway, a project similar to the recent agreement between Russia and Iran to build a segment of the North-South corridor railway project between Rasht and Astara in order to strengthen Russo-Iranian military-economic cooperation.[14] Putin also called for the EAEU to create technological alliances with third-party countries, likely aimed at securing critical components that Russia is struggling to produce or acquire itself.[15]

The Kremlin is likely attempting to convince EAEU member states and other post-Soviet countries to aid in the Kremlin’s ongoing sanctions evasion schemes with China, Iran, and others by facilitating the logistics of those schemes.[16] Putin called for an increase in the number of new joint ventures under the common trademark ”made in the EAEU,” a measure likely aimed at rebranding Russian products as being EAEU products to avoid Western sanctions on exports.[17] Lukashenko and Tokayev both specifically called for the creation of a full-fledged Economic Union with a functioning common market, and Lukashenko claimed that EAEU representatives are discussing the creation of a common market for gas, oil, and petroleum products.[18] Belarus and Kazakhstan are likely both heavily involved in helping Russia evade sanctions, and the Kremlin is likely seeking to expand and formalize those relationships with the wider EAEU.[19] ISW previously assessed that the Kremlin appears to be leveraging its dominance in the CSTO to court member states to procure dual-use technologies that Russia cannot directly purchase due to Western sanctions, and it appears that the Kremlin is attempting to similarly leverage its role in the EAEU.[20]

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️At Ramstein, allies pledge (https://kyivindependent.com/lithuania-announces-new-package-of-military-aid-for-ukraine/) $65 billion of combined military aid to Ukraine.
Austin singled out pledged military aid from Germany, Denmark, and France that is set to include tanks, armored vehicles, and air defense systems, among others.

⚡️Reuters: US to announce (https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-us-to-announce-300-million-of-military-aid-to-ukraine/) additional $300 million in military aid to Ukraine.
The new package should be announced on May 26 and will contain mainly ammunition, including Guided Multiple Launch Rockets (GMLRS) for HIMARS launchers, Reuters reported, citing two unnamed official sources.

⚡️The Finnish government announced its 16th package of military Ukraine on May 25, estimated to be worth 109 million euros ($116.8 million).
The package includes, among other equipment, anti-aircraft systems and ammunition.(https://kyivindependent.com/finland-announces-16th-package-of-military-aid-to-ukraine/)

⚡️ Lukashenko claims (https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-lukashenko-peremishchennia-iaderni-boieprypasy/32427971.html) transfer of Russian nukes to Belarus underway.

⚡️White House has not changed (https://kyivindependent.com/untitled-51/) nuclear threat assessment following transfer of Russian nukes to Belarus.

⚡️ Bloomberg: EU freezes (https://kyivindependent.com/eu-freezes-russias-central-bank-assets-worth-200-billion-euros/) Russia’s Central Bank assets worth 200 billion euros.
The European Union has frozen assets of Russia's Central Bank worth 200 billion euros ($214.6 billion), Bloomberg reported on May 25, citing European Commission spokesperson Christian Wigand.

⚡️Defense Ministry confirms (https://kyivindependent.com/defense-ministry-confirms-drone-attack-on-russian-black-sea-warship/) Ukrainian drone attack on Russian Black Sea warship.
With a video published on Twitter on May 25, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry confirmed that an attack on the Russian military's Ivan Khurs warship was carried out with Ukrainian drones.

⚡️Several explosions reported (https://kyivindependent.com/several-explosions-reported-in-russian-occupied-berdiansk-in-zaporizhzhia-oblast/) in Russian-occupied Berdiansk.
Vladimir Rogov, a collaborator with the illegal occupation administration in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, also said on Telegram that Ukrainian forces had inflicted a "massive attack" on the city.

⚡️Russian Volunteer Corps claims (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-volunteer-corps-claims-to-cross-into-russia-again/) to have crossed into Russia again.
The Russian Volunteer Corps, one of the Russian anti-government groups who have declared themselves to be fighting on Ukraine's side, said its members had once again entered Russia's territory on May 25.

⚡️ UK parliament recognizes (https://kyivindependent.com/uk-parliament-recognizes-holodomor-as-genocide/) Holodomor as genocide.
The U.K. parliament has recognized the Holodomor famine as genocide against the Ukrainian people, Presidential Office head Andrii Yermak announced on May 25.

⚡️ Zelensky names (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-names-new-security-service-deputy-head-dismisses-regional-chief/) new SBU deputy head, dismisses regional chief.
He appointed Serhii Naumiuk as the deputy head of Ukraine's Security Service (SBU). He also dismissd the SBU's head in Khmelnytskyi Oblast, Taras Tsiutsiura. No information on the nature of Tsiutsiura's dismissal was provided.

⚡️CNN: White House official says (https://kyivindependent.com/cnn-white-house-official-says-us-has-made-it-very-clear/) US has 'made it very clear' to Ukraine it does not support attacks on Russian soil.

⚡️Explosions reported (https://kyivindependent.com/untitled-52/) in center of Russian city of Krasnodar.
Explosions occurred in the Russian city of Krasnodar, located in southern Russia, early in the morning of May 26, the local Telegram channel "Baza" reported.

⚡️Kyiv reports (https://kyivindependent.com/kyiv-reports-shooting-down-all-russian-targets-in-latest-aerial-attack-on-capital/) shooting down all Russian targets in latest aerial attack on capital.
Kyiv officials said the city's air defenses shot down all Russian targets launched at the capital overnight on May 26 during Russia's 13th aerial attack on the city since the start of May.

⚡️Debris from Russian aerial targets shot down (https://kyivindependent.com/debris-from-russian-aerial-target-shot-down-over-kyiv-damages-buildings-home/) over Kyiv damages mall, house.

⚡️Air Force: 25 drones, 10 cruise missiles shot down (https://kyivindependent.com/air-force-says-25-drones-10-cruise-missiles-shot-down-overnight-in-ukraine/) overnight in Ukraine.
Russia launched 17 different types of missiles and 31 drone strikes in the overnight attack, Ukraine's Air Force reported on May 26.
Russia focused its attacks in the east of the country, targeting critical infrastructure and military objects, the Air Force said.

UNITED25 Media Telegram

A video of an attack by a surface drone on the Russian military ship "Ivan Hurs" near the Bosphorus on the morning of May 24 appeared on social networks. The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation said the attack was "unsuccessful" and that all three drones were destroyed, but the footage shows the opposite. Most likely, "Ivan Hurs" was damaged.

Denmark and the Netherlands will lead the European coalition to train the Ukrainian military on F-16 fighters, — US Defense Minister

Russia is not going to win this war on the battlefield, it's simply not possible, said Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley.
At the same time, Milley warned that Ukraine is unlikely to expel the occupying forces from all its territories soon successfully.
"Ukraine's strategic goal of regaining all its territories does not look like it can be achieved militarily in the short term," he said.

South Korea has not yet sent artillery shells to Ukraine, but negotiations are ongoing, — the representative of the Ministry of Defense Jeong Ha Kyu.
In Seoul, the publication of The Wall Street Journal about the shipment of hundreds of thousands of projectiles to Ukraine was called "inaccurate".
"Cooperation with the US is essential to the Seoul government, but we also need to maintain ties with Moscow. Therefore, it will be difficult for Seoul to publicize information about such assistance to Ukraine," Sejong Sejong Institute expert Cheong Song Chanka told AFP.

Spain will provide Ukraine with four more Leopard 2 tanks, as well as a new batch of M-113 TOA infantry fighting vehicles, Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles announced at a meeting in Ramstein.

Iceland purchased and handed over ten fuel trucks for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine worth 400,000 euros.

Lithuania is preparing a new aid package for Ukraine with ammunition and anti-drone equipment, — Defense Minister Arvydas Anušauskas said at a Ramstein-style meeting.

Georgian Airways, which has resumed direct flights to Russia, will launch transit flights to Europe for Russians. Flights to Milan, Paris, Vienna, Larnaca and Thessaloniki are scheduled via Tbilisi.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin hopes that training of Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighters will begin in the coming weeks

The Ministry of Defense Reznikov stated that defense purchases in Ukraine are moving to the model of NATO countries
The procurement of weapons and military equipment will be carried out by a single national agency.
"The department is separated from the apparatus of the ministry, which allows to minimize corruption risks.

"Zaporizhsky avenger" works: Ukrainian military shot down two enemy Su-25s, — National Guard of Ukraine.

The occupiers destroyed the dam of the Karliv reservoir in Donetsk region, — Regional Military Administration.
Currently, three villages are under threat of flooding.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi is alive and well, despite Russian propaganda claims that he was injured. A video of him was published by Colonel Anatoliy Shtefan.

🇦🇲🇦🇿 Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed to mutually recognize their territorial integrity, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said.

A Russian T-72 tank, which was shot down by the Ukrainian military in the Kyiv region last year, was put on display in Amsterdam's Leidseplein square. – NH Nieuws (https://www.nhnieuws.nl/nieuws/319511/russische-kapotte-tank-op-amsterdamse-leidseplein)

Rostov region, Russia, air defense was working over the airfield

Loud explosions were heard in the center of Krasnodar, Russia at night - the city was attacked by drones. The operational headquarters of the Krasnodar Territory reported that the explosions damaged the roof of the building and windows.

Local residents report loud explosions in temporarily occupied Berdiansk, Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine

173 Russian artillery systems destroyed over the past week!

Err..My eyes aren’t what they were (dammit) but if my aircraft recognition skills are still up to be speed I’m calling that as a Saab Viggen….

Mighty fine aircraft in it’s time but been out of service over 15 years.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️CNN: Iran likely ships drones (https://kyivindependent.com/cnn-iran-likely-ships-drones-to-russia-through-caspian-sea/) to Russia through Caspian Sea.
Tehran is likely using the Caspian Sea shipping route to supply Moscow with weapon supplies, including the Shahed kamikaze drones, CNN wrote on May 26.

1 plane (though media reports 2 were shot down yesterday); 25 more artillery.