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Ukraine Invasion: Part 40

994 replies

MagicFox · 13/05/2023 15:17

40 threads, still here πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

OP posts:
Thread gallery
221
MMBaranova · 27/05/2023 13:24

The thing about declared identity though is that the one on the right, with the English surname seemingly localised to Sussex and Surrey, likes to say β€˜I’m Irish’. Which is fine. He has more Irish than English ancestry (10/16ths apparently). He’s also a politician in a country with a huge Irish heritage diaspora. It’s not Ireland though.

President Higgins probably doesn’t need to remind anyone of his Irishness. He could however throw in the towel and come to live and vote in the UK, due to the relationship between the two countries, something President Biden would find more challenging.

Me? I’m not in the picture, but while my mum is from Ukraine, my dad is from Spain. Where’s this going you wonder? His mum is Irish though (and lives in London because things can be complex). So I’ve got more recent Irish ancestry than Joe Biden, but I don’t go round saying β€˜I’m Irish’, possibly because I am not courting any electoral base and know that I am not compared to the real deal relatives who I see a couple of times a year, plus my gran who I now see at least every three weeks because I currently live in London.

Donbas β€˜Russians’? Depends on situation perhaps. I’m sure more have been pushed towards feeling more Ukrainian due to the wars. What they say to camera though may vary, depending on who is holding any guns out of shot. The Kherson relative I posted about recently hates The Russians, speaks Russian, has a brother in the Army of Ukraine and, if on the way to get supplies, she encounters occupying Russian forces will engage then in a language that is less likely to get her raped or murdered than if Ukrainian was all she knew. That’s part of the flexibility of identity.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 27/05/2023 14:03

^BringBackCoffeeCreams Β· Today 14:15
DH says this is fearmongering (from whoever is saying it not MN).^

Thanks @BringBackCoffeeCreams

It was actually reported in some usually-reliable media such as the Kyiv Independent and UNITED24 Media. They don't usually come up with bullshit, though they have been mistaken now and then.

So it's a bit of a mystery because the time scale when the 'news' was released was "a few hours", but nothing has happened. Perhaps it's a problem that was averted?

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 27/05/2023 14:06

It sounds so complex @MMBaranova

(fwiw our old Khersonite guestfriends were bewildered and horrified by what the Russians have done, because it was so unexpected. Then blazingly angry and full of hate. There must be a fair bit of that).

BringBackCoffeeCreams · 27/05/2023 14:13

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 27/05/2023 14:03

^BringBackCoffeeCreams Β· Today 14:15
DH says this is fearmongering (from whoever is saying it not MN).^

Thanks @BringBackCoffeeCreams

It was actually reported in some usually-reliable media such as the Kyiv Independent and UNITED24 Media. They don't usually come up with bullshit, though they have been mistaken now and then.

So it's a bit of a mystery because the time scale when the 'news' was released was "a few hours", but nothing has happened. Perhaps it's a problem that was averted?

They're probably reporting in good faith the absolute evil shite being stirred up by Russia. It's Russia that ultimately benefit if this type of fear mongering works, so it's mostly likely them behind it.

MMBaranova · 27/05/2023 18:46

The Prayer hits home.

Decisive Attack - Sacred Revenge - Holy Victory

https://twitter.com/CinC_AFU/status/1662451731261796353?s=20

https://twitter.com/CinC_AFU/status/1662451731261796353?s=20

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 27/05/2023 23:18

It seems the General Staff made a mistake in the figures for yesterday.

Look at the aircraft, UAVs and cruise missiles!

Ukraine Invasion: Part 40
blueshoes · 27/05/2023 23:34

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 27/05/2023 22:51

Ducks, thanks for sharing. IT skills are transferable, so those IT workers who have fled Russia will hopefully be able to find work elsewhere. I am guesing that the only IT companies left to thrive in Russia will be stated-owned media (like VK), troll farms or cyberattack shops.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 28/05/2023 10:53

If Russia is seriously trying to get people to work that much more, it has to be a sizeable indication they are struggling.

I don't think many Russians who have sacrificed children, husbands, wellbeing and now may have to work extra, are ever going to be able to accept that NATO was not a threat, Ukraine was never going to invade, Russia was never under existential threat and it's all been for nothing. I don't think people could bear to think that.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 40
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 28/05/2023 10:59

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-27-2023

Key Takeaways

  • Wagner Group mercenaries appear to be withdrawing from Bakhmut city to reconstitute and regroup in the rear as Russian offensive operations decrease in and around the city.
  • The Russian military command may be transferring Donetsk People’s Republic’s (DNR) forces to relieve Wagner Group forces in Bakhmut city.
  • The Russian transfer of DNR elements to Bakhmut may decrease the tempo of Russian offensive operations on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
  • The Russian military command appears to be reinforcing Bakhmut’s flanks with regular formations, however.
  • Former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin accused Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin of planning a coup against the current Russian leadership.
  • Ukrainian officials denied Western reporting that suggested that a Chinese diplomat expressed interest in a negotiated ceasefire in Ukraine amidst the likely renewal of Russia’s information campaign surrounding negotiations.
  • Russian forces continued limited offensive operations northeast of Kupyansk and south of Kreminna.
  • Russian forces continued to launch unsuccessful offensive operations on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
  • Ukrainian forces continued to strike rear logistics nodes in southern Zaporizhia oblast.
  • The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) warned on May 26 that Russian forces are preparing to conduct large scale provocations to create radiological danger at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). @BringBackCoffeeCreams this is the source of the story then.
  • The Russian Ministry of Justice registered the civil society group β€œCouncil of Mothers of Wives” as a foreign agent on May 26, likely to curb resistance to ongoing and future Russian force generation efforts.
  • Russian authorities are escalating efforts to portray Russia as a safe guardian of Ukrainian children.

Extra:
Girkin noted that Prigozhin ordered for the Wagner forces to withdraw to the Wagner bases deep inside of Russia on the eve of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. He also claimed that Wagner personnel had never taken oaths promising not to engage in combat against Russia or its military.[20] Prigozhin stated on May 27 that Wagner will decide later on if it will fight in Ukraine or in another country, which indicates that Prigozhin retains the ability to command his own army outside of the formal Russian military command structure

Institute for the Study of War

Wagner Group mercenaries appear to be withdrawing from Bakhmut city to reconstitute and regroup in the rear as Russian offensive operations decrease in and around the city. Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian offensive operations had

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-27-2023

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 28/05/2023 11:08

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚑️Ukrainian intelligence says it gained 'valuable information (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-intelligence-says-it-gained-valuable-information-from-the-belgorod-incursion/)' from Belgorod incursion.

⚑️Ukrainian intelligence: Russia starts false-flag operation with chemical weapons (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-intelligence-says-russia/) in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
The Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) reported on May 27 that Russian forces have begun a false-flag operation involving chemical weapons in occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia Oblast in what it said was "an attempt to disrupt the counteroffensive."
The intelligence suggested that Russian soldiers would be "the real victims" of Moscow's "provocation" and accused Moscow of planning to frame Ukraine as the guilty party by using traces of chemical weapons on Russian soldiers' bodies as fake evidence.

⚑️Exiled local authorities: Ukraine attack on Russian military positions in occupied Berdiansk results in casualties (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-says-it-attacked/).
Ukraine launched an attack on Russian military positions in the Russian-occupied town of Berdiansk in the southeastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast on May 27, claiming that many Russian soldiers were killed in the strike.

⚑️Danilov: Wagner regrouping in 3 locations (https://kyivindependent.com/danilov-wagner/) after partial withdrawal from Bakhmut.
National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov said in an interview released on May 27 that Russia's Wagner mercenaries are "regrouping to another three locations" after what he called was their partial withdrawal from Bakhmut.

⚑️General Staff: Ukraine repels (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-repels-donbas-attacks-amid-shelling-and-airstrikes/) Donbas attacks amid shelling and airstrikes.
Russian forces attacked Avdiivka and Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast but were repelled without gaining ground on May 27, according to Ukraine's General Staff.

⚑️VOA: US lawmakers call for speeding (https://kyivindependent.com/untitled-50/) up arms supplies to Ukraine.

⚑️Denmark creates (https://kyivindependent.com/denmark-creates-133-million-fund-to-invest-in-danish-supported-projects-in-ukraine/) $133 million fund to invest in Ukraine.

Poll: two thirds of Ukrainians oppose (https://kyivindependent.com/untitled-53/) negotiations with Russia.
A Razumkov Center poll has found that 64% of Ukrainians oppose direct talks with Russia before the war ends, while 23.1% are in favor of negotiations.
Furthermore, 67% of respondents refused to accept returning to the pre-Feb. 24, 2022 boundary of Russian-occupied territories in return for peace.

⚑️Austria to finance (https://kyivindependent.com/austria-announces/) demining in Ukraine.
Austria will finance demining equipment worth 2 million euros ($2.2 million) for Ukraine, the Austrian government announced in a statement.

⚑️More than 40 Russian drones shot down (https://kyivindependent.com/more-than-40-russian-drones-shot-down-over-kyiv-overnight/) over Kyiv overnight.

⚑️Zelensky imposes (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-imposes-new-sanctions-against-russian-and-belarusian-entities/) signed a decree on May 27, approving a proposal by the National Security and Defense Council to impose sanctions on 51 people and 220 Russian and Belarusian entities.

⚑️ Death toll rises (https://kyivindependent.com/update-russian-missile-strike-on-dnipro-clinic-kills-4/) in Russian strike on Dnipro clinic after more body fragments identified.
Authorities identified fragments of the bodies found on the site, proving they belonged to the three people who had been recorded missing.

Relatively low losses reported despite an amended version being released 12 hours ago of the previous day with a number of aircraft lost. That seems to have passed almost unnoticed.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 40
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 28/05/2023 11:26

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Ukraine is ready for a counteroffensive. It can happen tomorrow or in a week, β€” Danilov
As the BBC reports, the secretary of the NSDC did not name specific dates, but noted that Ukraine "has no right to make a mistake" regarding this decision, as it is a "historic opportunity" that "we cannot lose." According to him, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will go on the offensive when the command calculates that "we can get the best result at this stage of the war."
Danilov also rejected the suggestion that the counteroffensive had already begun, noting that "the destruction of Russian command centers and Russian military equipment" has been the task of the Armed Forces since February 24 last year.

❗️ Kuleba said that Beijing did not offer to return the occupied territories of Ukraine to Russia
Reacting to the Wall Street Journal's publication that China's special representative Li Hui in European capitals allegedly recognized Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia, the head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry noted that he contacted partners and did not receive confirmation of this information.

❗️Air defense forces shot down 52 of 54 kamikaze drones launched by the Russians over Ukraine this night. The Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces called the night attack a record number of drones.

Athens supports Budapest in blocking new European sanctions against Russia. Five EU diplomats told Politico about this. This is because Kyiv compiled a list of private companies β€” sponsors of the war, which included several European firms. Athens and Budapest want some of their companies off the list and are using the new sanctions package as political leverage.

❗️In Russia, they decided to reduce the number of employees of German institutions and expel hundreds of German civil servants from the country, Sueddeutsche Zeitung writes.
First of all, this concerns employees of educational and cultural institutions, as well as diplomats.
Presumably, this is Russia's response to the expulsion from Germany of Russian diplomats who were suspected of recruiting German informants.

Austria allocates €2 million for demining equipment in Ukraine β€” the country's MFA.
The funds will be donated to a humanitarian non-profit organization engaged in demining.
Chancellor Karl Nehammer emphasized that Austria would not send its sappers to Ukraine while the war continued.

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ Elina Svitolina is the winner of the WTA250 tournament in Strasbourg! In the final, the Ukrainian beat Russian Anna Blinkova, who plays under a neutral flag β€” 2:0.

πŸ’ͺ Arnold Schwarzenegger thanks Ukraine for the first place of his new series at the local top of Netflix.

After defeat, Russia will pose a danger to NATO, β€” the head of the British Air Force, Mike Wigston
"When the conflict in Ukraine ends and Ukraine restores its borders as it should, we will have a damaged, vindictive and brutal Russia whose means of harming us are airstrikes, missile attacks and submarine attacks," he told The Telegraph.

Three people who were considered missing after the shelling of a hospital in Dnipro, unfortunately, died, β€” the head of the Dnipropetrovsk Regional Military Administration Serhii Lysak.

The Ukrainian and Japanese governments are discussing holding another round of the international conference on the restoration of Ukraine, Ukrainian Ambassador to Japan Serhiy Korsunskyi said in an interview with NHK.

Ocean currents around Antarctica have slowed by 30% since the 1990s and may stop entirely due to melting ice. And deep-sea life in 40% of the world's oceans depends on them.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 28/05/2023 11:41

Live: Ukraine Telegram

TΓΌrkiye holds the second round of presidential elections.

Explosions are heard in the Belgorod region of Russia. Local publics write about the shelling of the town of Shebekino, and some propagandists publish videos with alleged Grad shelling. The OSINT community identified the geolocation of the location in the second video - the village of Grafovka, 12 km from the border.
πŸ”»The governor of the Belgorod region of the Russian Federation says he came under fire in Shebekino.

Girkin accuses Prigozhin of preparing for a coup in Russia. He says the insults towards the Russian army by Putin's cook are unacceptable, and signal a rift in the elites which Prigozhin will take advantage of with his private army that is being withdrawn from Bakhmut. Girkin adds that if Russia misses the upcoming counter-offensive, the political situation in the country may become unrecongisable by the end of summer.

A nighttime drone attack, Lukashenko's hospitalization, and the situation in Bakhmut - a digest of the night's top news.

πŸ”»The most massive drone attack on the capital since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the alert lasted more than 5 hours. The falling wreckage of the downed drones caused casualties and destruction in different parts of Kyiv.

πŸ”»Lukashenko hospitalized in critical condition after meeting with Putin - media [UNCONFIRMED]

πŸ”»The enemy struck Nikopol twice with heavy artillery, damaging houses, buildings, a gas pipeline and a power line.

πŸ”»ISW suggested that the withdrawal of Wagner's men from Bakhmut and the redeployment of the so-called "DPR" to the city could reduce enemy offensives on the Avdiivka-Donetsk line.

The Taliban has launched a war against Iran. On May 27, fighting broke out in Nimruz province as the Taliban attacked a border checkpoint and killed at least two Iranians. Fighting in the province continues. One of the Taliban leaders even announced plans to conquer Iran.
The conflict broke out over water rights on the Afghan border. The Helmand River flows from the Afghan mountains to the Iranian province of Sistan, where it flows into a lake that regularly dries up. Sistan province is currently suffering from drought, and Iran accuses the Taliban of building new dams on the river and diverting water, which is harming the arid eastern regions of Iran.
['a war' may be putting it much too strongly]

Ukraine Invasion: Part 40
Liebig · 28/05/2023 12:09

Lol at the head of the RAF’s comment. White noise bullshit masquerading as β€œnews”.

In other dumb news reporting:

Ukraine Invasion: Part 40
Liebig · 28/05/2023 12:20

I’m wondering if the Russians have boosted production of attack drones given last night, or they just sat on a load of inventory and lobbed them all at Kyiv. Would be interesting to know their capacity to do this given how restricted ballistic and modern cruise missile attacks are. Lawnmowers that fly with bombs attached are far easier to make, but far less capable.

Guessing they just want to keep whittling down AD until they can use something else.

TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 28/05/2023 12:40

Liebig · 28/05/2023 12:20

I’m wondering if the Russians have boosted production of attack drones given last night, or they just sat on a load of inventory and lobbed them all at Kyiv. Would be interesting to know their capacity to do this given how restricted ballistic and modern cruise missile attacks are. Lawnmowers that fly with bombs attached are far easier to make, but far less capable.

Guessing they just want to keep whittling down AD until they can use something else.

I assume the latter because yesterday was Kyiv Day so it is in keeping with previous behaviour that they will have been saving them for a special birthday present. It doesn’t mean they are going to to keep it up.

Liebig · 28/05/2023 12:44

TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 28/05/2023 12:40

I assume the latter because yesterday was Kyiv Day so it is in keeping with previous behaviour that they will have been saving them for a special birthday present. It doesn’t mean they are going to to keep it up.

I do recall reading a story that said Iran was helping set up better local manufacturing, so maybe a bit of column A, but of column B.

Either way, provided ADM shipments keep apace (and frankly, Gepards and other SPAAGs are also sufficient here), then it doesn’t strategically change much of anything.

Mb76 · 28/05/2023 17:03

Donbas β€˜Russians’? Depends on situation perhaps. I’m sure more have been pushed towards feeling more Ukrainian due to the wars. What they say to camera though may vary, depending on who is holding any guns out of shot. The Kherson relative I posted about recently hates The Russians, speaks Russian, has a brother in the Army of Ukraine and, if on the way to get supplies, she encounters occupying Russian forces will engage then in a language that is less likely to get her raped or murdered than if Ukrainian was all she knew. That’s part of the flexibility of identity.

In my experience, the ones who rejoiced when Russians invaded back in 2014 have not changed their feelings towards Ukraine at all. Propaganda has done its work and now I am unsure if anything will change their minds.

I said this before, most pro Ukrainian people from Donbas moved away from the region following the events of 2014. Those who stayed did so willingly believing they would have a better life under Russia. A small minority of pro Ukrainian population remained who were unable to leave for whatever reasons. They are still waiting ti be liberated, from Russia.

interestingly I heard that from September, Ukrainian language will be re introduced in schools as an option. The cynic in me says it’s just so that they train a new generation of Ukrainian speaking Russia collaborators. After all, Ukrainian culture and national identity has been systematically erased from the occupied territories since 2014.

Mb76 · 28/05/2023 17:05

TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 28/05/2023 12:40

I assume the latter because yesterday was Kyiv Day so it is in keeping with previous behaviour that they will have been saving them for a special birthday present. It doesn’t mean they are going to to keep it up.

@TheCountessofFitzdotterel you are correct

MMBaranova · 28/05/2023 19:32

Good point Mb76. I wonder who if and when things are β€˜over’ will want to return and who might leave.

TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 29/05/2023 10:48

Attacking Kyiv again now, after doing it last night too.
My guest (who works remotely at his Kyiv job) said he thinks the Russians are trying to catch out the air defence by doing it when they’re not ready. Except of course they are ready. His colleague is sitting in the kitchen of his flat watching the air defences work.

notimagain · 29/05/2023 11:15

TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 29/05/2023 10:48

Attacking Kyiv again now, after doing it last night too.
My guest (who works remotely at his Kyiv job) said he thinks the Russians are trying to catch out the air defence by doing it when they’re not ready. Except of course they are ready. His colleague is sitting in the kitchen of his flat watching the air defences work.

BBC just covering that aspect of this now.

As well as the casualty issue going to round the clock means there’s less time to replenish missile batteries and also give crews a break.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 29/05/2023 11:17

I'm afraid there's some bad news - Russia targeted an airfield in Khmelnytskyi and may have wiped out 5 planes and fuel storage. Details have not been confirmed.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 29/05/2023 11:31

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-28-2023

Key Takeaways

  • Russian forces conducted the largest Shahed drone strike against Ukraine since the start of the war overnight on May 27-28.
  • Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that the Russian relief in place operation in Bakhmut may continue past his initial June 1 deadline and last until June 5.
  • The tempo of Russian operations around Bakhmut remains notably low.
  • Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin appears to have again indirectly undermined Russian President Vladimir Putin’s authority and regime.
  • Prigozhin may be attacking Putin for failing to give Prigozhin some promised reward for seizing Bakhmut.
  • The Wagner Group held a reportedly illegal pro-Wagner rally in Yekaterinburg on May 28 despite the reported banning of the rally by Yekaterinburg authorities.
  • Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov criticized former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin on May 27.
  • Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
  • Russian forces conducted limited offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City front.
  • Russian forces continued to fire on areas in Southern Ukraine.
  • The UK Ministry of Defense (MoD) asserted that Russia is now demanding that Russian citizens make additional sacrifices to support the war effort.
  • Russian occupation officials continue to forcibly deport Ukrainian children to Russia under the guise of summer camps.

Expanded:

Prigozhin’s jabs at Putin and the Russian MoD - in combination with his bragging about Wagner’s accomplishments – may suggest that Prigozhin is frustrated that he did not receive some promised compensation for his victory in the Battle for Bakhmut.

ISW previously assessed that Putin is a risk averse actor who is concerned over the health of his regime and thus unlikely to fully satisfy Prigozhin’s radical demands.

Approximately 100 to 150 cars of Wagner personnel and supporters held a procession from Yekaterinburg to a cemetery in Berezovsky, Sverdlovsk Oblast, where the supporters laid flowers at a Wagner monument.[28] Some Russian opposition sources claimed that local authorities explicitly banned Wagner from holding the rally and that Wagner held the rally in direct defiance of the ban.[

Ukraine Invasion: Part 40
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