Ukraine Invasion: Part 40

[MagicFox]

40 threads, still here 🇺🇦

Thanks for the new thread although once again gutted it's needed.

Thanks for the new thread.

Pray this one ends on a positive note

MissConductUS, thank you for your ability to point out the positives.

Thank you for the new thread.

Thank you for this new thread.

Oh god, I'm in bits at Eurovision.

You'll Never Walk Alone at Eurovision – Liverpool and Kyiv singing together.

Can't type. Tears.

I wonder who was responsible for almost simultaneous downing the Russian war planes x 2 and military helicopters x 2 in Bryansk. Some reports say it is Russian friendly fire/air defence and others say it is by Ukraine operation.

Thanks for the new thread, still following and hopeful that the fight back will work

Checking in. Thanks to everyone for sharing their knowledge, updates and valuable insights. Victory to Ukraine 🇺🇦

Thanks for the new thread

.

Hi all. I'm hoping with all my heart that this a hot thread as reliably forecast by Miss Conduct. The waiting is so, so hard. I'm off to see my Ukrianian friends today who are now living and working independently here in the UK. Most of their family remain in Kherson, under the onslaught of Russian shelling. How on earth they live with the daily stress of war at home and then set up in a new country and a new language is beyond me. The resilience of Ukrainians astounds me. They are giants in the realms of moral courage.

Slava Ukraini

Thank you for the new thread @MagicFox 💙💛
Eurovision was emotional 😭
I noticed majority of the Ukrainian “postcards” footage was filmed over Western Ukraine and Kyiv… beautiful and almost made you forget the country is at war

I think the evidence is still too sketchy to draw many conclusions.

What's gone on in an particular air battle is rarely clear cut and history shows from way back that you very get inflated claims..( e.g. multiple systems engaging the same target and then all claiming an individual kill)..

I think might be fair to say all multiple shoot downs happened 50km inside Russian held territory (as is rumoured in some sources) few if any will have been down to Ukr action..it'll have been a case of the Russians having a bad day at the office (e.g. electronic ID not working/not coordinated, poor segregation of airspace)

Other than that be interesting to see what we hear over the next 24/48 hours.

I'm surprised how little mention there is in the UK TV news of the downed aircraft.

I know details are sketchy but there's little doubt it happened and its covered by Reuters and several newspspers.

Thank you again for this new thread

Problem is what is the "it"? I don't doubt "something" happened but what....with the MSM there's always the danger of inflated claims..

FWW even now historians are unravelling air to air and surface to air engagements from WW2, the Falklands and even the Gulf Wars so whilst I'll happily accept the Russians took losses yesterday I'm not automatically buying into at least some of the detail being published.

The tweet you linked to ref the Ukr ammunition dump being hit has been deleted Ducks. I'm hoping that's because it's inaccurate but it's more likely a Ukr news blackout I suppose 😢

Account from a Russian volunteer (translated by Dimitry@wartranslated) about the counter attacks in Bakhmut.
It sounds like the UAF know what they are doing and are prioritising keeping their soldiers alive:

twitter.com/lawdavf/status/1657697302213976064?s=46&t=eNB9C4pL0g2Opkl4oCmOsQ

I'm trying to keep my expectations ref the counter offensive realistic but tweets like these, from Tendar make me feel hopeful:

The latest military assessment of the UK MoD regarding the state of the Russian army is basically a military catastrophe for Putin waiting to happen. Especially the last paragraph is decisive when preparing to counter a looming offensive.

Without an effective mobile reserve it is next to irrelevant how good your fortified positions are, considering the length of the frontline. Any fortified position can be overcome, especially with precision guided munitions, which Ukrainian forces have in many different types at their disposal. It is anyway impossible for the Russian military to man all those trenches and those mobilized are too incompetent and inexperienced for mobile warfare.

The is why I take more interest in the events around Vuhledar. They reflect more the type of upcoming battles rather than the urban fights in Mar'inka or Bakhmut, with the known disastrous results for the Russian army. And Vuhledar was constrained on a limited area, even enjoyed Russian superiority and first-strike advantages. Yet, it ended in catastrophe for them because everything what goes beyond to suicidely run into the next trench, where they anyway die, totally overwhelms them.

War can be too unpredictable to prognosticate very specific events and I'm keeping my estimated battle maps regarding the upcoming counteroffensive, which I created weeks ago, under the wraps for this very reason, but with that data at my hand and based on the developments of the last 15 months, and especially when Ukrainian forces perform as they have been doing until today, then I see no realistic way for the Russian army to even remotely to stop the storm which is inevitably coming.

Link with UK MoD assessment he refers too:

https://twitter.com/tendar/status/1657697072236183552?s=46&t=eNB9C4pL0g2Opkl4oCmOsQ

And from the same source 5 minutes ago:

The Russian command post in Klishchiivka, south of Bakhmut, has been struck. The Russian MoD admits the death of Colonel Vyacheslav Makarov and Colonel Yevgeny Brovko.

Russian mil-bloggers also claim that the commander of the 124th brigade has been killed, plus around 20-40 KIA.

https://twitter.com/tendar/status/1657704508003082240?s=46&t=eNB9C4pL0g2Opkl4oCmOsQ

@notimagain and the other knowledgeable folk, I am SO glad to have you as voices of sanity on the thread.

You make it a sort of anti-thread to the wild, tripping threads that take off into outer space, where some poster takes half a snapshot of something they knew nothing about in the first place and builds a tower to the moon on it.

It's such a tonic to hear from people who know enough to know... that we don't know!

It looks, actually, as if it may have been inaccurate.

There's no doubt the missiles landed but there are claims (one from a Russia-supporter) that it was from a much older clip. So the missiles might not have landed on a dump after all.

Fingers and toes crossed - whenever that stockpile went up, it was a giant explosion.

https://www.understandingwar.org/user/3100/track

Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian forces continue to counterattack in the Bakhmut area amid unconfirmed claims of further marginal Ukrainian gains southwest of the city as of May 13.
• Russian forces conducted a Shahed-131/136 drone strike against Ukraine on the night of May 12 to 13.
• Russian media reported that two Russian Mi-8 helicopters, an Su-34 bomber, and an Su-35 fighter crashed in Bryansk Oblast on May 13, which some Russian sources claimed was caused by Ukrainian air defenses.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces struck rear Russian areas in Luhansk Oblast with British Storm Shadow cruise missiles on May 12 and 13, prompting heightened Russian anxiety about potential Ukrainian abilities to target Russian logistics.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin’s insistence on conducting the war in Ukraine in the style of the “Great Patriotic Special Military Operation” has opened the door for several hardline actors to advocate for the institutionalization of increasingly Stalinist domestic policies.
• Former Pacific Fleet Commander Admiral Sergey Avakyants reportedly received an appointment to lead a new Russian force generation organization called “Voin” (“Warrior”), which reportedly replaced Russia’s legacy Russian Volunteer Society for Assistance to the Army, Aviation, and Navy of Russia (DOSAAF).
• Belarusian President Lukashenko was reportedly hospitalized at a presidential hospital in Minsk on May 13.
• Russian forces continued limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and northwest of Svatove.
• Russian forces made marginal gains within Bakhmut and continued limited offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk front.
• Russian forces targeted Ukrainian positions in southern Ukraine west of Hulyaipole.
• Russian forces are reportedly replenishing units with mobilized personnel.
• Russian authorities continue efforts to deport Ukrainian children to Russia under the guise of “rest and relaxation” schemes.

Today's Uk Int Update is highly positive.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️ Poll: Most Ukrainians dislike, ignore Pope Francis' stance on war. (kyivindependent.com/poll-only-9-of-ukrainians-support-peace-with-russia-at-any-cost/)
The poll, published on the same day Zelensky is meeting with Pope Francis, showed that most Ukrainians either disagree with the Pope's stance on the war, or find it irrelevant, or don't know about it.

Ukrainian State-Owned Enterprises Weekly (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-soe-weekly/) – Issue 87
The Cabinet published a resolution on Ukroboronprom’s corporatization, but with a six-week delay.
Court orders arrest of two people accused of involvement in theft of Hr 500 million ($13.7 million) from UMCC and Odesa Portside Plant.
Naftogaz pays Hr 33 billion ($902 million) in taxes for the first four months of 2023.
Energy regulator investigates alleged market manipulation, with DTEK benefiting at Energoatom’s expense.

⚡️ (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-orders-new-sanctions-against-russian-assets-russian-business-people/)
President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a decree on May 12, approving a proposal by the National Security and Defense Council to impose sanctions on 13 people and 28 entities.

⚡️ Zelensky holds (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-meets-with-pope-francis/) 40-minute talk with Pope Francis.
During President Volodymyr Zelensky's visit to the Vatican, Pope Francis gifted him a small olive branch sculpture that symbolizes peace.
Zelensky gifted the Pope an icon of the Virgin Mary painted onto a piece of body armor.

⚡️ Belarusian media: Lukashenko taken to hospital (https://kyivindependent.com/belarusian-media-lukashenko-taken-to-hospital-amid-rumors-of/) amid rumors of poor health.
Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko checked into a hospital near Minsk, according to Belarusian publication Euroradio and watchdog Belarusian Hajun.

⚡️Sweden wins Eurovision 2023, Ukraine places 6th (https://kyivindependent.com/sweden-wins-eurovision-2023-ukraine-places-6/)

⚡️ Zelensky arrives (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-arrives-in-berlin-to-meet-with-german-officials/) in Berlin to meet with German officials.

⚡️ Zelensky holds (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-holds-phone-call-with-south-african-president/) phone call with South African President.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said he had spoken with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa on May 13. The two talked about “the peace formula, about justice, and about how our world should be united by the rules of international law.”

⚡️FT: G7, EU to ban (https://kyivindependent.com/media-g7-eu-to-ban-russian-gas-import-resumption/) Russian gas import resumption.
The G7 and the EU plan to ban Russian gas imports on routes where Moscow has cut supplies before, according to a document seen by the Financial Times.
The move aims to prevent the restart of Russian pipeline gas exports on routes to countries such as Poland and Germany, where Moscow triggered an energy crisis across Europe after cutting off supplies in 2022.

⚡️Yermak: Mine kills 5 (https://kyivindependent.com/yermak-unexploded-shell-kills-5-in-kherson-oblast/) in Kherson Oblast.
An unexploded device left behind by the Russian army exploded in Myroliubivka, a village in Kherson Oblast, on May 14, killing five people aged between 27 and 68, Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak reported.

⚡️Air Defense claims five Russian aircraft downed (https://kyivindependent.com/air-defense-claims-russia-downed-own-helicopters-aircraft-in-bryansk/) inside Russia, says Moscow did it.
Three Russian helicopters and two aircraft were allegedly shot down by Russia's own air defense on May 13, Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat said on national television.
Ukraine regularly doesn't acknowledge conducting military operations inside Russia, despite such operations performed deep inside the country.

President Zelensky met with German Chancellor Scholz and President Steinmeier in Berlin on May 14.