Ukraine Invasion: Part 40

[MagicFox]

40 threads, still here 🇺🇦

Oh fuck

I know we’re keen to keep this thread professional and not too emotive but fuck me I hate the Russians and what they’re doing 😡

I think we're all with you there Jelly :-(

Oh FFS, what a nightmare.

@blueshoes

Re F-16 and F18 and:

Will they be easier to train UAF pilots to fly than the F-16s

There won't be much in it, one type will be better in some areas, the other in others.

Despite the the numbering difference the -16 and the -18 are from the same era and were direct contemporaries from the early '70s when they competed in a US government contest for a Light weight fighter contract ( the F-16 was at that point the YF-16 and the F-18 was the YF-17).

The F-16 won the overall competition but the US Navy didn't fancy the -16 for carrier ops (they didn't like the landing gear configuration and the fact the 16 only has one engine) and bought the YF-17, redesignated as the F-18, in large numbers as a multirole fighter.

Over the years the F-16 has turned out to be the much better seller but the F-18 is a very capable airframe and won a lot of export orders. Of course in the context of the present day whatever the type you need airframes equipped to modern standards.

So it’s been completely destroyed and can’t be restored. Absolute bastards.

⚡️Blowing up the Kakhovka Hydro Power Plant will have devastating consequences, including a decade-long water shortage in Crimea, irreparable damage to hundreds of thousands of lives.

twitter.com/pravda_eng/status/1665954214953078784?s=46&t=eNB9C4pL0g2Opkl4oCmOsQ

The only positive I can take from this is it seems like an act of desperation. Do the Russians expect to lose Crimea?
Just wondering how long before the Kremlin blame the UAF for this act of terrorism.

They’ve already blamed them.

Russia also suggesting that Ukraine are planning a dirty Bonn on Russia soil.

I wonder (hope?) how much the news overnight will concentrate necessary minds on the supply of fighter jets.

I wonder (hope?) how much the news overnight will concentrate necessary minds on the supply of fighter jets.

Maybe...some of the apparent delay might down to a lack of political effort but introducing new types into any air force isn't at all straightforward and in peace time typical takes years.....it's never simply a case of "just send the jets".

Having (potentially) a second NATO type in theatre is sort of welcome and complicates Russian thinking but it does also potentially complicates matters for Ukraine (e.g. need for a second training stream for both air and ground crew, need for a second logistics/support train).

Oh my God.

Just how many civilian deaths are happening. This is a catastrophe in terms of lives, ecology, economy. Hopefully not nuclear.

I hope the fucking Russian soldiers up trees drown. How the fuck are old people, young children, disabled people - anyone- caught in the flood areas going to survive this!

The ISW saw this coming.

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1584307031736864768

ISW
AT TheStudyofWar

Southern Axis Update: #Russian outlets continued to set conditions to blame #Ukraine for the destruction of the #Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant, which Russian forces will likely destroy to slow advancing Ukrainian forces. https://isw.pub/UkrWar102322

What is this going to mean for future grain production? Oh God

Obviously the ISW won't have taken this event into account yet.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-5-2023

Key Takeaways

• Russian and Ukrainian officials are signaling the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
• Ukrainian forces conducted limited successful offensives north and southwest of Bakhmut.
• The pro-Ukrainian all-Russian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) claimed that it continues to operate in a Russian border settlement in Belgorod Oblast as of June 5.
• Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov claimed that Chechen forces are ready to defend against raids in Belgorod Oblast, likely partially in order to keep his forces out of combat in Ukraine.
• The Russian Black Sea Fleet is attempting to mitigate complications with logistical support in occupied Crimea by shifting resources to mainland Russia.
• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is continuing efforts to exacerbate the divide between the Wagner Group and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).
• Russian milbloggers responded to the video of Lieutenant Colonel Venevitin with concern, indicating that several prominent pro-war voices are becoming increasingly concerned over the ramifications of the Wagner-MoD divide.
• Russian forces reportedly conducted unsuccessful reconnaissance-in-force operations northeast of Kharkiv City and continued limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces continued limited offensive operations on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks in western Donetsk and eastern Zaporizhia oblasts and made further limited tactical gains.
• Ukrainian forces continue to target rear Russian positions throughout southern Ukraine.
• Iran has allegedly signed contracts with Russia for about $1.74 million in ammunition for Russia to use in Ukraine.
• Ukrainian sources and Belarusian sources indicated that Belarus has been involved in the forced deportation of Ukrainian children.

sorry, hit send too soon in haste

Kyiv Independent Telegram

Ukrainian military: Russian forces blow up Kakhovka dam (https://kyivindependent.com/southern-operational-command-reports/)
Ukraine's Southern Operational Command reported early on June 6 that Russian forces blew up the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant. "The scale of the destruction, the speed and volumes of water, and the likely areas of inundation are being clarified," the military said on their official Facebook page.

⚡️Governor: Evacuation of Kherson Oblast settlements affected by flooding underway (https://kyivindependent.com/governor-evacuation-kherson-settlements-underway-following-dam-explosion/) after Kakhovka dam explosion.
Around 16,000 people's homes in Kherson Oblast are located in "critical risk" zones for flooding after Russian forces blew up the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant, Kherson Oblast Governor Oleksandr Prokudin reported on June 6.

⚡️IAEA: 'No immediate risk' to nuclear safety (https://kyivindependent.com/iaea-no-immediate-risk-to-zaporizhzhia-npp/) at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
The International Atomic Energy Agency reported on June 6 that it was closely monitoring the situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant after Russia blew up the Kakhovka dam, adding that there is "no immediate nuclear safety risk at the plant."

The Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant is "beyond repair (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrhydroenergo-kakhovka-dam-beyond-repair-after-explosion/)" after being blown up by Russian forces, Ukraine's state-owned energy company Ukrhydroenergo reported on June 6.
"As a result of the blast, the machine hall inside the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant was completely destroyed. The station is beyond repair," Ukrhydroenergo wrote.

Russian forces destroy Kakhovka dam, triggering humanitarian disaster (kyivindependent.com/southern-operational-command-reports/)
Ukraine's national police have called for residents of 10 villages alongside the bank of the Dnipro River to evacuate, as well as part of Kherson city itself.

The Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant is [now] "completely under water," say local authorities in Kherson Oblast, after Russian forces blew up the plant's dam in the early hours of June 6.

Interior Ministry: 742 people evacuated from Kherson Oblast
(https://kyivindependent.com/internal-affairs-ministry/)
Seven hundred and forty-two have been evacuated from Kherson Oblast as of 10:00 a.m. local time after Russian forces blew up the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant, the Interior Ministry reported on June 6.
"The water is rising. The situation is further complicated by the erosion of certain roads, which prevents access to some settlements. Evacuation teams are searching for alternative routes," the ministry said.

⚡️Interior Ministry: 885 people evacuated from Kherson Oblast (https://kyivindependent.com/update-885-people-evacuated-from-kherson-oblast-due-to-kakhovka-dam-destruction/) due to Kakhovka dam destruction.

Ukraine's Interior Ministry reported on June 6 that 885 residents of Kherson Oblast had been evacuated as of 11:00 a.m. local time following Russia's destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant's dam.
Evacuation is ongoing as around 80 settlements are at risk of potential flooding, according to the ministry, most of which are under Russian occupation.

Residents of Kherson Oblast are advised not to leave pets on chains, in enclosures or cages, and to safely evacuate pets to save them from drowning in floodwaters from the destroyed Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant dam. [there are reports all 300 animals of the zoo nearby drowned.]

⚡️ Military: Kakhovka dam explosion will not (https://kyivindependent.com/military-kakhova-dam-explosion-will-not-stop-ukraines-counteroffensive/) stop Ukraine’s counteroffensive.
Ukraine’s military said it is “equipped with all the necessary watercraft and pontoon bridges for crossing water obstacles,” adding that Russia’s actions “will not stop Ukraine’s Defense Forces, which are ready to liberate Ukraine’s occupied territories.”

⚡️Interior Ministry: Russian forces attack Kherson (https://kyivindependent.com/interior-ministry-russian-forces-shoot-at-police-officers-evacuating-civilians/) as rescue workers evacuate civilians.
Two Kherson police officers were injured by Russian artillery fire while trying to evacuate civilians from flooding caused by Russia's destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant, the Interior Ministry reported on June 6.

---

⚡️Defense Ministry: Ukrainian forces on offensive (https://kyivindependent.com/defense-ministry-ukrainian-forces-advancing-in-bakhmut-direction/) in Bakhmut direction, other areas.
Ukraine's forces are successfully advancing in the Bakhmut direction along a "fairly wide front," Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar wrote on Telegram on June 5.
Small-scale fighting is taking place in the south, she added.

The Kyiv Independent, [05/06/2023 22:10]
Ukraine war latest: Kyiv says it’s shifting to offensive actions (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-kyiv-says-its-shifting-to-offensive-actions-in-donetsk-oblast/) in Donetsk Oblast

The Russian Defense Ministry claimed to have defeated a large-scale Ukrainian attack in Donetsk Oblast on the morning of June 5 in the first announcement of what could be the start of the long-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive.

⚡️Defense Ministry: Ukrainian forces advance (https://kyivindependent.com/defense-ministry-3/) on eastern front.
Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations along the eastern front and made several advances in certain areas on June 5, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar reported.
Ukrainian troops advanced 200 to 1,600 meters in the direction of Orikhovo-Vasylivka and Paraskoviivka, and 100 to 700 meters in the direction of Ivanivske and Klischiivka.

Russia reports Ukrainian ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast in possible launch of counteroffensive (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-reports-ukrainian-ground-attacks-in-donetsk-oblast-in-possible-launch-of-counteroffensive/)

⚡️Air Force: 35 cruise missiles (https://kyivindependent.com/air-force-15-cruise-missiles-21-drones-shot-down-overnight-in-ukraine/) shot down overnight in Ukraine.

⚡️Ukraine's military intelligence responds (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-military-intelligence-responds-to-reports-on-pro-ukrainian-militia-using-western-made-weapons-in-russia/) to reports on pro-Ukrainian militia using Western-made weapons in Russia.
Yusov said such questions should be addressed to the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Freedom of Russia Legion as they "operate autonomously" on Russian territory. "As for other issues, I think the Ministry of Defense will comment appropriately," added Yusov.

⚡️Pistorius: Germany will not send Taurus missiles (https://kyivindependent.com/dw-berlin-says-no-to-taurus-missiles-but-rethinking-position-fighter-jets-for-ukraine/) but reconsidering fighter jets for Ukraine, he said on June 5.

⚡️Mayor: Russia brings (https://kyivindependent.com/mayor-russia-brings-spy-squads-into-occupied-melitopol/) spy squads into occupied Melitopol.
Spy squads from Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) have arrived in the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol in Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia Oblast to search for pro-Ukrainian residents, exiled Mayor Ivan Fedorov reported on June 5. [Russia is truly an evil land]

⚡️Intelligence: Senior Russian officer killed in Belgorod Oblast (https://kyivindependent.com/intelligence-senior-russian-officer-killed-in-belgorod-oblast/).
The 52-year-old Colonel Andrei Vasilyevich Stesyev was killed in the village of Novaya Tavolzhanka.

Ukraine has likely created a network of pro-Ukrainian saboteurs on Russia's territory to carry out strategic drone attacks, in particular, the one that targeted the Kremlin in early May, CNN reported on June 5.

⚡️Media: European Commission to ease (https://kyivindependent.com/european-commission-to-ease-restrictions-on-agricultural-imports-from-ukraine-2/)restrictions** on agricultural imports from Ukraine.
The European Commission is set to extend the ban on agricultural imports from Ukraine, but the restrictions will apply to a smaller number of products, European Pravda reported on June 5 with reference to its sources.

⚡️Media: Russia buying back (https://kyivindependent.com/media-russia-buying-back-arms-parts-exported-to-india-myanmar/)arms parts exported to India, Myanmar.
Russia may be "buying back" military equipment previously shipped to India and Myanmar, the Japanese news outlet Nikkei reported on June 5.

⚡️Orban meets Rosatom's director, discuss nuclear energy cooperation (https://kyivindependent.com/orban-meets-rosatoms-director-discuss-nuclear-energy-cooperation/).
The director of Russia's state-owned energy company Rosatom, Alexey Likhachev, arrived in Budapest for talks with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, the news portal Telex reported on June 5.

⚡️US sanctions (https://kyivindependent.com/us-sanctions-russian-intelligence-linked-influence-actors-destabilizing-moldova/)Russian** intelligence-linked influence actors destabilizing Moldova.

⚡️Prosecutor General: Russia has killed 485 Ukrainian children (https://kyivindependent.com/prosecutor-general-485-children-killed-by-russia-since-start-of-invasion/) since start of all-out war.

Huge Russian losses. But not high enough.

Blowing up Nova Kharkova dam is truly despicable. An all out act of terrorism by the terrorist state Russia. I agree they are getting desperate. Maybe the Ukraine offensive has started [trying to shuuuuush] and Russia are frantic to free up resources defending the Kherson/Crimea to other parts of Ukraine. They are also probably trying to bog down the ground there to prevent Ukraine advance.

⚡️Interior Ministry: Russian forces attack Kherson (https://kyivindependent.com/interior-ministry-russian-forces-shoot-at-police-officers-evacuating-civilians/)**as rescue workers evacuate civilians.
Two Kherson police officers were injured by Russian artillery fire while trying to evacuate civilians from flooding caused by Russia's destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant, the Interior Ministry reported on June 6.

And if you did not think that Russia could stoop any lower, now firing on rescuers. Right out of the Russian war criminal playbook. The utter cowards.

The main engine room of the dam was completely destroyed. Was the dam occupied by Russia? I assume so if they are able to plant a bomb in the engine room. I presume it was not destruction by a missile, but I don't know.

It was charges, apparently

Aleksandr X
AT AleksandrX13

I've actually noticed some people questioning whether the russians blew the #NOVAKAKHOVKA dam, so I thought I would address this...

Firstly, destroying a dam is not a small matter.

Charges must be laid very deep down at the base of the dam, usually at two points on the dam, to cause a section to 'hinge out'. As the charges go off, a huge section of the dam is pushed out by the pressure of the water, and disintegrates, releasing the flood. Russia controlled the dam, and only russian troops were in a position to engage in the sort of demolition required to cause this disaster.

Note, also, that russia has been 'overloading' the reservoir in preparation for this, by closing the gates.

Levels in the reservoir were thus at all-time highs, maximizing the damage and destruction caused.

It is my opinion that the russians miscalculated, and little realized the forces they were unleashing when they blew the dam.

@notimagain thank you for your input on F16 v F18.

Ducks, thanks for the link on how the dam could have got blown up. The destruction is truly wanton and heartbreaking. Looking at the videos. That poor deer. The advice to leave pets unchained to prevent them from drowning 😭No words.

More Kyiv Independent:

⚡️Energy Ministry: Kakhovka dam explosion puts Kherson Thermal Power Plant at risk of flooding (https://kyivindependent.com/energy-ministry-kakhovka-dam-explosion-puts-kherson-thermal-power-plant-at-risk-of-flooding/).
Russia's destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant's dam in Ukraine's Kherson Oblast has put other energy facilities in the region at risk of flooding, in particular, the Kherson Thermal Power Plant, the Energy Ministry reported on June 6.
Almost 12,000 households in Kherson's Ostriv district have been left without electricity due to the flooding, according to the Energy Ministry. Issues with water supply are possible as well.

⚡️Ukrenergo: Destruction of Kakhovka dam isn't affecting stability of power grid. (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrenergo-dam-destruction-hasnt-impacted-stability-power-grid/)
Russia's destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant hasn't affected the stability of Ukraine's power grid, Ukraine's state energy operator Ukrenergo reported on June 6.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

❗️The head of "Energoatom" Petro Kotin said that the explosion at the Kakhovska HPP will not affect the operation of the Zaporizhzhia NPP. He explained that the reactors are cooled from a pond that is not connected to the Kakhovsky Reservoir and does not depend on it.
According to him, water from the pond is used to cool the reactors, but they are not working now. If all the reactors were operating, the ponds would need to be refilled roughly every month as the water evaporates. But now, the water level in the pond has hardly changed, it has not been replenished since September last year. In case of a critical situation, the ponds can be replenished with water from alternative sources to the Kakhovsky Reservoir.

The US will provide Ukraine with an additional $37 million for cyber security, — the US State Department.

📊 Oil and gas revenues of the Russian Federation in May of this year turned out to be less than expected by 30.6 billion rubles ($376 mil), in June they are predicted to decrease by another 44 billion rubles ($541 mil), — Ministry of Finance of Russia.
For this amount — 74.6 billion rubles ($919 mil) — the department intends to sell currency.

Today, Great Britain is the second country in the world in terms of military aid to Ukraine. Since February 24, 2022, the United States has allocated $38 billion in aid to Ukraine, Britain — $4.6 billion.

Very important agreements were reached, — President Zelenskyy on meetings with British senior officials. [no further info]
Today, Zelenskyy met with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the United Kingdom, James Cleverley.

The destruction of the Kakhovska HPP is the largest artificial and manufactured disaster in the world in recent decades, which is killing the environment and will negatively affect the lives of hundreds of thousands of people in the coming years, — Andrii Yermak

In Zaporizhzhia, the water of the Dnipro river dropped by about 10 meters.

❗️❗️A week before the explosion of the Kakhovska HPP, the Russian authorities allowed not to investigate accidents at dangerous facilities that occurred as a result of "military actions" and terrorist attacks — the decision also applies to temporarily occupied territories that the Russian Federation considers its own, — The Insider [See next point. They timed this announcement deliberately while planning this destruction]

❗️Before destroying the Kakhovska Dam today, the Russians raised the water level to a record 17.5 meters, leaving the gates closed.
They wanted to make the flooding as large-scale as possible in order to prevent the Ukrainian army from conducting a counteroffensive in the area. [see attached chart below]

Currently, only 29 million people live in Ukraine, — "Ukrainian Institute of the Future" (it used to be 44million!!)
The birth rate has become 2 times lower than the indicator necessary to maintain the population at the same level,
Only 9.1–9.5 million Ukrainians work, and if we take away state employees, then there are about 6-7 million people.
Also, according to the Institute, since the beginning of the war, 8.6 million people have left the country and have not yet returned.

Lists of Ukrainian pilots for training on modern fighters have been formed for a long time, but so far, no Ukrainian pilot has gone for training abroad, — in the comments of the Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Ignat.
Earlier, during a meeting with the head of the British Foreign Ministry, Prime Minister Shmyhal announced that the first groups of pilots had already been sent to Britain.

Former FBI agent Robert Hanssen, convicted of espionage for Russia, has died. This is reported by CBS. He was found dead in his prison cell.
Hanssen cooperated with Soviet and Russian intelligence from 1979 until his arrest in 2001. The investigation managed to prove 13 episodes of espionage.

The long-awaited novelty from Apple: the company introduced the first VR glasses Vision Pro. We are already thinking about how we can use them in the fight against the Russian invaders 😏.

meanwhile in the UN. Whatever would we do without their tact and timing?

Crimea will most likely be left without fresh water due to the detonation of the hydroelectric power station.

Apparently the Russians refused to let the zoo owner open the enclosures for the animals to escape. 300 dead.

Those poor animals. The terror at watching the rising flood waters and waiting to be drowned in their cages. Unimaginable.

Not to mention a similar terror possibly playing out amongst older and more vulnerable residents in the line of the flood waters.

I really hope this galvanises Ukraine's allies even more.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️President's Office: At least 150 tons of motor oil released into Dnipro River (https://kyivindependent.com/president-office-on-environmental-damage-caused-by-dam-explosion/) after Kakhovka dam explosion.
At least 150 tons of motor oil have been released into the Dnipro River after Russian forces blew up the Kakhovka dam on June 6, the President's Office reported.
According to the President's Office, there is a risk of 300 additional tons of machine oil leaking into the river.

[Hadn't even thought of pollution risks ... ]

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar confirmed that Ukrainian troops have launched an offensive in some areas.
According to her, the Bakhmut direction remains the epicenter of the fighting. There, Ukrainian troops are "moving on a fairly wide front" and occupying the dominant heights.

Zelensky will address the Swiss parliament on June 15, and some MPs are already promising a boycott.
The day before, the lower house of the Swiss parliament failed to vote on the re-export of weapons to Ukraine, but there are still chances for a permit - several proposals on this topic are being considered by the parliament

Russian MoD says they destroyed 1500 Ukrainian troops, 8 Leopards and 3 AMX-10 vehicles in the South Donetsk direction just yesterday 🤡

A surprised local filmed the volunteers of “Freedom of Russia” Legion in Belgorod region and commented that ‘they came through a secret underground tunnel’ [footage was shown]

❗️In Kupyansk district, Russian occupiers damaged an ammonia pipeline. As a result, the pipeline was depressurized.

The mayor of Nova Kakhovka, Volodymyr Kovalenko, said in a commentary that the city was flooding as a result of the occupiers' undermining of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant dam.
The mayor has information as of 6:30 am. According to him, at that time, the zoo "Fairy Tale Grove" and the summer theater were already flooded, water came up to the monument to Shevchenko, cafes and a playground in the city were flooded. A boat station and a yacht club were also flooded, and water came up to Dniprovsky Avenue.
According to Kovalenko, it is currently difficult to get information from the city because there are interruptions in the Internet. He believes that it was the Russians who started jamming the signal to keep people in an information vacuum.

In Slovakia, a former justice minister faces up (https://dennikn.sk/3409277/harabina-obzalovali-za-status-o-schvalovani-ruskej-invazie-hrozia-mu-najviac-tri-roky/)to three years in prison for supporting Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
After the outbreak of full-scale war, Štefan Harabin wrote on Facebook "I would have done the same thing as Putin." Later he deleted the post, but claimed to be "proud" of what he wrote and added: "It is undeniable that Putin and the Russian Federation acted in accordance with international law. He cannot be an aggressor."

Islands near Kherson, the water level is already at the level of the roofs

Oleksandra Paskal, who lost her leg during the Russian shelling of Odesa last year, won a gymnastics competition. The girl turned her injury into strength. She successfully underwent rehabilitation and, having received a prosthesis, returned to gymnastics.

On August 18, 1941, the Russians used 20 tons of explosives to blow up the Dnipro Hydroelectric Station dam, trying to hinder a German offensive.
The flooding killed between 20 000 - 100 000 Ukrainians.

Every time you think they can't sink any lower they have to prove you wrong