Ukraine Invasion: Part 40

[MagicFox]

40 threads, still here 🇺🇦

Ideally, you want to launch as close to the target as possible to limit the interception window, but the extra range is certainly nice. I love the blue Gremlin sitting on the lightning bolt they put on this one.

Here's the manufacturer's promotional video. It's a German - Swedish jointly produced weapon.

My mind is blown by the engineering and physics involved in the taurus.

The video shows that the missile is dropped from the launch plane in a horizontal position and falls vertically down. Then suddenly it is flying in the horizontal position at the same vertical level for up to 500 km (cannot see any thrust but maybe the whole missile is like a flying aircraft jet engine). Just as it reaches its target, it tilts its nose and flies up and then at point of impact falls vertically nosedown fo rmaximum impact.

Incredible.

PS I was attracted by the blue 'gremlin' which looks more like a bull (taurus) about to charge to me.

Ducks, makes total sense the way you explained it.

it was Business Ukraine's twitter explanation but yes, when you look at that you suddenly get it!

19 pages inane just PMK now… need to catch up.

@blueshoes, you're right, it's a bull. I can't believe I missed that!

Russian soldiers are drinking from muddy ditches, which means they cannot supply water to them in the field.

https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1661349867606638593

Earlier update on perceived situation on the ground in occupied rural Kherson oblast after I asked how things had been:

The Russians are pulling a huge amount of equipment into our area, Ukraine is trying to break through the defenses from the river, shelling from artillery has become more frequent, shootings are heard, soon it will be very hot here.

Can only pray for them @MMBaranova that they will survive the storm. God. Russia is a blight.

Eh, while it’s a good weapon system, we’ve had longer ranged cruise missiles (AGM-86) and smarter weapons (ALARM) that match or exceed this in such metrics. Those are all Cold War (‘80s typically) hardware. The advantages of more modern systems are low observability and better networking systems to allow BVR engagement not using the host aircraft, along with real time tactical updates should a target move.

Rocket artillery isn’t new, for instance. But GMLRS allows for normal rocket arty to become JDAM levels of precision, so now saturation fire isn’t needed from dozens of Grads. You can have a half dozen of these rockets instead and with >90% hit rates.

@MMBaranova I can only imagine how helpless you and your family must feel. Wishing that they stay safe as best they can.

@MMBaranova thinking of them all 💙💛

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-24-2023

Key Takeaways

• Discussions regarding reported Russian losses in Bakhmut have saturated the pro-war information space and are drowning out any remaining positive informational effect resulting from the city’s capture.
• The overall Russian information space response to the capture of Bakhmut has fixated on attributing responsibility for its capture and speculating on the associated costs of the operation, thus depriving the Russian MoD of the oxygen necessary to positively frame the city’s capture.
• Prigozhin is likely using his heightened profile following the capture of Bakhmut to intensify his attacks against the Russian military establishment and elites. Prigozhin is also using the perception that Wagner is responsible for the capture of Bakhmut to advocate for a preposterous level of influence over the Russian war effort in Ukraine.
• The Kremlin continues efforts to portray Russia as having significant diplomatic partnerships.
• Russian sources continued to respond to the limited all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and the Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) raid into Belgorod Oblast.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces continued limited ground attacks on the outskirts of Bakhmut and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Russian forces continue to target Ukrainian positions in southern Ukraine with FAB-500 aerial bombs.
• Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed on May 24 that more than 120,000 Russian personnel have undergone training since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.
• The Russian Federation Council approved a law on holding elections in territories under martial law on.

@MMBaranova, I'll keep you all in my thoughts and pray for their safety.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️ A reconnaissance ship belonging to Russia's Black Sea Fleet was attacked by three unmanned surface vehicles, the Russian Defense Ministry claimed on May 24.(https://kyivindependent.com/russian-ship-allegedly-attacked-by-unmanned-surface-vehicles/)

⚡️Prigozhin claims (https://kyivindependent.com/prigozhin-claims-wagner-forces-leaving-bakhmut/)Wagner** forces leaving Bakhmut.
Shortly after claiming full control over Bakhmut, Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin said on May 25 that his mercenaries started withdrawing from the city.

⚡️US approves $285 million sale (https://kyivindependent.com/us-approves-285-million-sale-of-air-defense-system-to-ukraine/) of NASAMS air defense system to Ukraine.

⚡️Ukraine reportedly shoots down (https://kyivindependent.com/untitled-49/) all Russian aerial targets during May 25 Kyiv attack.

⚡️Russian forces target kindergarten in Sumy Oblast with guided bomb (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-forces-target-kindergarten-in-sumy-oblast-with-guided-bomb/).
Russian forces hit a kindergarten in Sumy Oblast with a guided bomb, the Sumy Oblast Military Administration reported on May 24.
Information on potential casualties and the extent of the damage is being clarified. [fucking hell. Is there anything worse than a Russian soldier in human nature? No, there isn't]

⚡️Russian occupation forces to abduct more children (https://kyivindependent.com/abduction-children-luhansk-oblast/) in Luhansk Oblast.
Russian occupation forces in Luhansk Oblast are preparing to abduct more children under the false pretense of conducting "medical examinations," the National Resistance Center reported on May 23.

⚡️Reuters: Kyiv investigating Belarus' potential involvement in child abductions (https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-prosecutor-general-investigating-belarus-potential-invovlement-in-child-abductions/).

⚡️Netherlands allocating (https://kyivindependent.com/netherlands-allocating-260-million-euros-to-purchase-ammunition-for-ukraine/) 260 million euros to purchase ammunition for Ukraine.
The funds will contribute to the second phase of a European Union's plan to provide Ukraine with one million 155-mm-caliber artillery rounds.

⚡️Defense Ministry: Russian forces attempt to strengthen flanks (https://kyivindependent.com/defense-ministry-2/) on outskirts of Bakhmut.
Russian forces are attempting to strengthen their positions on the flanks of the Bakhmut suburbs, relying on constant shelling to achieve this goal, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar reported on May 24.

⚡️Orthodox Church of Ukraine to switch (https://kyivindependent.com/orthodox-church-of-ukraine-to-switch-to-revised-julian-calendar-celebrate-christmas-on-dec-25/) to Revised Julian calendar, celebrate Christmas on Dec. 25.
It means the Church will celebrate Christmas on Dec. 25 instead of Jan. 7. Other holidays with a fixed date will also be moved.
Previously, the Orthodox Church of Ukraine used only the Julian calendar, which is also used by the Russian Orthodox Church. [this is a significant breakaway from the Russian Orthodox Church]

⚡️UK Defense Ministry: Russia struggles (https://kyivindependent.com/uk-defense-ministry-russia-struggles-to-improve-its-militarys-discipline-issues/) to improve its military discipline issues.
According to independent Russian journalists, cited by the ministry, from January to May 2023, Russian military courts heard 1,053 cases of personnel going absent without leave (AWOL) - more than in all of 2022.

⚡️Latvia pledges 2 million euros (https://kyivindependent.com/latvia-pledges-2-million-euros-for-reconstruction-of-chernihiv/) for reconstruction of Chernihiv.
Chernihiv will receive two million euros from Latvia for the reconstruction of the city, the Chernihiv City Council reported on May 24.

⚡️Georgian PM against restricting trade (https://kyivindependent.com/georgian-pm-against-restricting-trade-with-russia/)with** Russia.
Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili criticized efforts to restrict trade between Georgia and Russia during an interview at the Qatar Economic Forum on May 24.

⚡️US lawmakers urge Biden to transfer frozen Russian assets (https://kyivindependent.com/us-lawmakers-urge-biden-to-transfer-frozen-russian-assets-to-ukraine/) to Ukraine.

⚡️National Police: Family with 4 children evacuated 300 meters from front line (https://kyivindependent.com/national-police-family-evacuated-from-front-line/).

⚡️Military intelligence says Prigozhin one of its main targets (https://kyivindependent.com/prigozhin-one-of-main-targets-for-military-intelligence/).
Deputy Defense Intelligence Chief Vadym Skybytskyi told German publication Welt in an interview on May 24 that Wagner mercenary group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin was one of the Ukrainian Intelligence Directorate's main targets.
"We are trying to kill him," Skybytskyi responded when Welt asked what was the Ukrainian Intelligence Directorate's relationship with Prigozhin.

⚡️NYT: US officials believe Ukrainians likely behind Kremlin drone attack (https://kyivindependent.com/nyt-us-officials-believe-ukrainians-likely-behind-kremlin-drone-attack/).

Ukraine war latest (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-white-house-to-look-into-weapons-used-during-belgorod-attack/): White House to look into weapons used during Belgorod attack.
The White House is looking into reports that U.S. equipment and vehicles may have been involved in the fighting within Belgorod.

Ukrainian national team boxer Oleksandr Onyshchenko died in combat near the city of Bakhmut, the Boxing Federation of Ukraine announced on May 24.

'Only' 20 artillery systems lost yesterday.

Certainly seems to be raiding going on across the Dnipro in the last day or two.

From Sky News:
Russia is moving nuclear weapons to Belarus, as per the agreement in March. Russia has suggested its due to n "extremely sharp escalation" by NATO.

At this stage NATO have said they do not see any reason to change their own nuclear posture but consider Russia's rhetoric to be "dangerous and irresponsible"

Most of the activity has been at night recently. However sometimes there is daytime firing (in what she terms a 'massacre' because Russian forces are being hit effectively).

Local people communicate mostly via WhatsApp and Telegram. Facebook and similar apps don't work so effectively given the variable network conditions. Many people pass on where things land to the Ukrainian forces.

Our Kherson friends say that the Russians are shelling Kherson Oblast really heavily :(

Very much what your relative says too, that they are total animals in occupied settlements. Take what they want and who they want.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

☢️Russia and Belarus signed a document on the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory. Control over it and the decision to use it will remain with Moscow
This was reported by the Russian news agency TASS, citing a statement by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

Iran has announced the successful test of a new ballistic missile, the Khorramshahr-4 (Khaibar), which is allegedly capable of hitting targets at a distance of up to 2,000 kilometers and has a warhead of 1,500 kilograms.

South Korea has made concessions to the United States and has begun to transfer hundreds of thousands of artillery rounds to Ukraine, The Wall Street Journal (https://www.wsj.com/articles/south-korean-artillery-supply-allows-u-s-to-delay-decision-on-cluster-munitions-for-ukraine-4e41c04b?st=axpf2dlw3keecrs&mod=e2twp)reports. The supplies are being shipped through the United States.

Russian troops continue to militarize the territory of Zaporizhzhia NPP. Intelligence reports (https://t.me/DIUkraine/2344) that Units 1, 2 and 4 are being used as a logistics and military base. They hide equipment on their sites, the number of which can reach 20 units in one place.
Employees on duty shifts who are supposed to inspect the power units are not allowed to do so. Those who tried to make rounds were beaten and tortured, and several of the victims are in serious condition in hospital.

The Russian Ministry of Defense has confirmed the attack by surface drones on the Black Sea Fleet ship Ivan Khurs near the Bosphorus. Russian military correspondents wrote about it in the morning.
The agency says that the ship was attacked by three Ukrainian Armed Forces drones. The attack was called "unsuccessful" - all drones were allegedly destroyed

Japan handed over 100 military vehicles to Ukraine on Wednesday, May 24, including trucks and off-road vehicles - AP (https://apnews.com/article/japan-ukraine-military-vehicles-f9c38c363defa96b9e72fd64021fc2f3)

Russia and Belarus, which are creating a so-called Union State with a single political, military, economic space and one nuclear weapon for the two, pose a problem for other states of the Eurasian Economic Union, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has said.

"The Russian Volunteer Corps and the Freedom of Russia Legion gave a final press conference on the results of their raid in the Belgorod region of Russia. It took place near the border in northern Ukraine
The RVC commander Denis Nikitin said that the most active phase of the operation is over, but it is still going on in a different format. The fighters returned from Russia with trophies - weapons and equipment, including a BTR-82A. According to Nikitin, they managed to go 42 kilometers deep into Russia. They controlled some settlements for a day.

❗️The Freedom of Russia Legion confirmed the deaths of two of its fighters and the wounding of ten others. They called the raid into Belgorod region a complete success. The legionnaires took prisoners and captured a large amount of equipment.
They also emphasized the cruelty of the Russian army, which shelled their own settlements with artillery and aircraft.

The former commander of the Ground Forces of Poland, General Waldemar Skrzyczak, believes that the prospect of an armed uprising in Belarus is real and urged Warsaw to prepare for such a scenario.

🇩🇪🇲🇩 Germany is sending (https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/3713595-nimeccina-nadsilae-svij-kontingent-u-moldovu.html) a contingent to Moldova. It will consist of 15 specialists who will be part of the EU Partnership Mission.

The main task is to provide national security support, strategic advice, and, if necessary, training and equipment to strengthen Moldova's capacities in crisis management, cybersecurity, and hybrid threat analysis.

Prigozhin said that Russia needs to prepare for a difficult war, introduce martial law and announce new waves of mobilization, and "close all borders" like in North Korea in order not to lose the country.

The Crimean bridge was closed to traffic. The head of the occupation administration, Aksyonov, said that exercises were being conducted there. Meanwhile, Russian publics publish videos of smoke in the area of the bridge.

Putin justified his war against Ukraine by showing a 17th century map in which the Ukrainian lands are marked as a part of Russia.
He failed to notice the writing “Vkraine ou Pays des Cosaques” (Ukraine, country of Cossacks) right in the middle of the large part of Ukraine’s historic lands

UNITED24 Media Telegram

🎯 Ukraine expects to receive 110 Leopard 1A5 tanks in the near future
The Ambassador of Ukraine to Germany, Oleksiy Makeev, announced this on his Twitter page.
"110 Leopard 1A5. Coming soon. New German assistance," he wrote.**

As long as the war continues, Ukraine's accession to NATO is not on the agenda, — the Secretary General of the Alliance, Jens Stoltenberg.

The final decision on the transfer of F-16 fighters to Ukraine will depend on how the situation on the ground develops, — NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the Marshall Fund forum in Brussels.

Norway will join the training of Ukrainian pilots on the F-16, Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram said.

CBS News investigated and accused the "Wagner" PMC of rape and massacre to control a gold-mining town in the Central African Republic. All evidence is confirmed by documents and certificates.

The EU is discussing the transfer to Ukraine of profits from Russian assets worth 196.6 billion euros, which are frozen in the Belgian settlement center Euroclear due to sanctions, — Financial Times with reference to European officials. Frozen Russian assets make money through coupons and payments stuck for a year. Euroclear will reinvest this money, and EU officials plan to send the profit received from the reinvestment to Ukraine, the agency writes.

Exchange prices for gas in Europe fell below $300 per thousand cubic meters for the first time since May 20, 2021, reports the industry publication enkorr citing ICE data.

💥 On Thursday night, Russia launched 36 Iranian-made kamikaze drones over Ukraine — all of them were destroyed by Ukrainian air defense.

❕ The EU has extended the regime of duty-free trade with Ukraine for a year, — the Council of the European Union.

The WHO adopted a resolution condemning Russia's aggression against Ukraine, including attacks on medical facilities, — Reuters. The proposal was accepted by 80 votes to 9, 52 abstained, and 36 countries were absent.

Soon Diia all will be available on all continents
The Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine is considering options for cooperation with Zambia and Colombia, and from June the application will start working in Estonia.
Export negotiations are underway with 10 countries. [Diia is a mobile app, a web portal and a brand of e-governance in Ukraine. Launched in 2020, the Diia app allows Ukrainian citizens to use digital documents in their smartphones instead of physical ones for identification and sharing purposes. The Diia portal allows access to over 50 governmental services.]

The Ukrainian military began to record that the Russians were using wooden drones.

Everest. Blue and yellow flag. UNITED24💙💛
It was the most challenging ascent of Everest for Ukrainian mountaineering champion Valentyn Sypavin. But he did it! Despite the abnormal cold and a large amount of snow, the Ukrainian flag flew at a height of 8,848.86 meters.

@notimagain

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Media: First 20 Ukrainian pilots to enter (https://kyivindependent.com/media-first-20-ukrainian-pilots-to-enter-f-16-training-in-uk/) F-16 training in UK.

About 20 Ukrainian pilots will enter the first phase of training on modern fighter jets that will allegedly take place in the U.K., Foreign Policy reported on May 24, citing an unnamed British official.

“This will be ground-based basic training of Ukrainian pilots who will then be ready for more specific F-16 (or other) training,” the U.K. government spokesperson said.

.. so it looks like that's how it will work.

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

“This will be ground-based basic training of Ukrainian pilots who will then be ready for more specific F-16 (or other) training,”

Well colour me surprised.....not...😉

I'd guess probably something involving either the Operational Conversion Units (or whatever they are called in the downsized RAF these days) at Coningsby (Typhoon) or Marham. (F-35)

Well there aren’t any Cossacks there now, or not many.
Let’s hope they don’t come looking for their land back, eh?

I saw someone who's normally pretty reliable say that actually a lot of Ukrainian pilots have already been trained on F-16s. It's the first I've heard of it ... have you heard anything of this?

If (if, if) it's true then it would be so much better for the coming counter-offensive.

@Famzonhol

^Well there aren’t any Cossacks there now, or not many.
Let’s hope they don’t come looking for their land back, eh?^

Indeed. Mind you in that map the borders of Russian aren't where they are now. By his argument Russia should go back to those older borders!

Just as I was actually looking for the map, read this other news, good news:

Live: Ukraine Telegam

⚡️⚡️⚡️ Ukraine returned 106 defenders from captivity - 8 officers and 98 soldiers and sergeants. All of them fought in the Bakhmut sector. Among those released from captivity are many soldiers who were considered missing.