Ukraine Invasion: Part 40

[MagicFox]

40 threads, still here 🇺🇦

Pay wall, but a couple of interesting points:

Much of the announced military aid to Ukraine from Western governments has been sourced from equipment that would have gone out of service any way, Watling said. “Most of what we have given is stuff we have already paid for a long time ago, and we would have had to pay to decommission it …

*

Before the war, U.S. production stood at 14,500 shells per month, and E.U. production was around the same. The United States has been faster to respond to depleting stockpiles, boosting domestic production to 20,000 rounds a month and investing in new capacity to eventually increase that to 90,000 rounds per month. [...] Russia is on course to produce 2.5 million artillery shell rounds this year, up from 1.7 million rounds before the war, Watling said.

*

“Russia has the capacity to mobilize its own economy in support of the armed forces and control its own destiny in a way that Ukraine can’t,” said Barrons. “The critical weakness” for Ukraine “is its reliance on Western inventory and industry.”

This was what I was worrying about when the lack of equipment getting to Ukraine got talked about a while back. What little was pledged is turning up too slowly, is not combat effective, has too many maintenance and training implications, or is simply in too few numbers to make an effective fighting force.

What some Russian commentators say about the Belgorod activities (some close to official channels, some not):

Rybar: 'choreographed by the SAS'. Rybar maps three separate border-crossing incursions.

Rozhkov: 'It is obvious that measures must be taken to protect our border regions. Obviously, the initiation of a terrorism case by the RF IC and Peskov’s statement that the situation “causes deep concern and requires great efforts from us” is important, but this alone will not change the situation. We need real measures that will protect the Russians in the frontline areas.

At the same time, one must understand that these attacks have a significant informational effect and switch the focus inside Ukraine from Artemivsk, and inside Russia from all other directions. And there will definitely be attempts at such attacks to divert attention from the direction of the main attack.
And this direction, most likely, will be Zaporozhye, where the enemy has returned to the practice of reconnaissance in force for the last two days. There is information about the receipt of reserves in the Kherson direction.'

Others: Nothing new that these groups are doing things, they have been actively sabotaging for months, this is just their latest ploy.

While Ukrainian intelligence says they are Russians, contrary Russian posts suggest Ukrainians including some exchanged after Mariupol.

There are videos of destroyed vehicles that appear to be American.

There's an air of whack-a-mole with at least three incursions reported. 2nd image is from a Rybar post detailing some events and reporting gatherings of forces for further activity.

Oh and be aware that anti-Ukraine people come onto this thread now and then. It had been a while since we last had some, so we were bound to get a few .. specially (probably) coming up to the counteroffensive, which Russia is really worried about.

Feel free to let me know the FT and New Yorker are pro-Putler now.

@MMBaranova Moscow has been trying to play the “it’s NATO spec-ops wot did it” card for loads of things. And, well, maybe it is (we know they’re over there since 2014 doing training at the very least). It’s yet more empty posturing that they won’t act on, just as how F-16s are seen as the line in the sand now, just as Leopards/Challengers/Abrams were, just as HIMARS before it and so on, so forth. Pay it no heed.

Propaganda is always something to bear in mind but the concensus among investigative journalists is Ukraine deceives by omission and Russia by outright lies.

It's likely that the Ukrainian MoD knew full well of the incursion into Belgorod, supplied and gave permission but intentionally have little or no control of anything that happened after the border was crossed.

There's been speculation about whether the groups involved are even real but one at least is real enough to have been banned by Russia as a terrorist organisation for some time (the irony).

To my mind it's most likely to be exculsively people who see themselves as Russian partisans but in such a border region that might not exactly correspond with official documentation with families living both sides of the border.

There is some concern that it adds to the Kremlin narrative that Russia is under attack but that looks ever decreasing weak 15 months after Russian tanks rolled towards Kiev and the numerous levelled Ukrainian cities.

Either way the border being so demonstratively porous will make many ordinary Russians pause and think and must be deeply embarrassing for the Kremlin.

Either way the border being so demonstratively porous will make many ordinary Russians pause and think and must be deeply embarrassing for the Kremlin.

Tim White was looking for information on these shenanigans and apparently in the conventional press the Kremlin is barely mentioning them; they're page 4 news squeezed into a corner, was the gist of it.

So many Russians probably don't know what's been happening, but the rest of the world is admiring the Russian Free Legion's chutzpah and laughing.

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar most Russians no, I'm sure your right but those in the border regions will be doing a lot of thinking.

@Liebig

This was what I was worrying about when the lack of equipment getting to Ukraine got talked about a while back. What little was pledged is turning up too slowly, is not combat effective, has too many maintenance and training implications, or is simply in too few numbers to make an effective fighting force.

I'm not sure you can draw that conclusion across the board from what Jack Watling is saying....

For example, his comment that:

"Much of the announced military aid to Ukraine from Western governments has been sourced from equipment that would have gone out of service any way, Watling said. “Most of what we have given is stuff we have already paid for a long time ago, and we would have had to pay to decommission it …"

Is true, but the obvious vaguely informed response is... "yes but so what"?

It's been common knowledge in informed circles that some of the ordnance that has been released from western/NATO stocks is getting towards it's use by date, and it's done like that for exactly the reasons Dr Watling stated, but that doesn't automatically mean a weapon is less likely to work when needed or is somehow combat ineffective.

As far as maintenance and training goes, yep, that's a complication for the Ukraine with some kit but nevertheless given the lack of progress by Russian Forces they do seem to have been able to put what they have been given to effective use...

Would it have been better for the west to provide nothing at all on the basis that some of it was not brand new and/or some of it might be difficult to use?

The posturing and needs require we up the game. Sure, they can quickly take on ex-Cold War stock and use that to fill in gaps. But if we’re going to simply go toe-to-toe with NATO equipment that was meant to fight PACT stuff of the same era, Russia simply has more of it. There’s the crux of the issue, because despite the previous decrying of wunderwaffen Deus ex machina making the war end instantly, we are relying a lot on the smaller numbers of more sophisticated kit we sent from GMLRS to Excalibur to Storm Shadow and HARM.

That gets you only so far, and given the artillery battles going on (Russia has always been an arty heavy force), we’re not keeping pace. Even if we got late block F-16s into the fray, do we have enough to make a difference and soon?

There are a lot of pitfalls to drip feeding more modern Western stocks now we’re scraping the bottom of the barrel with old Soviet and old NATO things we can readily part with. The MIC has really fucked us, as most all neoliberal outcomes have, by making the waging war aspect of the economy enormously expensive and less productive. Look at how Stingers never got replaced and so the production line that in 1991 produced a missile at $25k is now doing the same missile at $400k to try and correct the massive drawdown Ukraine has effected.

I forgot to add, the genuinely bleeding edge tech is simply not going to go to Ukraine for obvious reasons. That limits a lot of what makes a NATO force effective, as C3I networks and vastly more modern air forces and combined arms allows us to dictate the order of battle. There’s only so much we can do giving Ukraine F-16s with Meteor, for example, before the need the E-3 or other accruements that allow such systems to be fully utilised.

The USAF would have achieved air dominance on day dot and anything after that would have been annihilated from the air. UAF can’t do that, but then neither has the VKS been all that prominent. So instead, we’re looking at 40-year-old MBTs go with reasonably modern arty systems and modern MRAPs (questionable vehicle efficacy compared to normal IFVs and APCs) and whatever the hell a Russian BTG is now.

There's been speculation about whether the groups involved are even real but one at least is real enough to have been banned by Russia as a terrorist organisation for some time (the irony).

They have established supporter groups (closed and invitation only). So far as I can tell:

Russian Volunteer Corps was developed last summer by Kapustin / Nikitin who is a far right thug, for want of a better term.

Freedom of Russia Legion (it has different translated names but it's badge says Svoboda Rossii) was formed earlier in 2022 than RVC. The core was defectors from Russian forces who were anti-Putin's war. It has drawn in other Russians and Belarussians. Saner. It is said to be part of Ukraine's International Legion, but that is a varied and often nebulous confederation.

There's also a National Republican Army. They have allegedly carried out arson attacks and may have been responsible for the killing of Darya Dugina. Ilya Ponomarev has links to them, it seems. Certainly the sketchiest of the three.

Here's a fresh BBC article:

Belgorod raid: Who are the fighters infiltrating Russia from Ukraine? - BBC News

Yes @liebig, this has been my concern too.

Russia can and will produce basic munitions for ever and day, huge natural resources and foreign currency from China and India mean they will be able to produce more limited quantities of higher tech stuff.

I do wonder if there will be any significant counter offensive by UA this year, with the front line remaining pretty much as it is now.

@Liebig...

Wouldn't argue too much with some of he content of your last two posts in principle, it was the picture you painted in the post that started this exchange - that NATO was perhaps systematically supplying life-ex kit that was combat ineffective that I had a problem with.

"There’s only so much we can do giving Ukraine F-16s with Meteor,"

Point of order, AFAIK we are not giving Meteor - unless there has been a recent change F-16 isn't even cleared/compatible for the weapon, AMRAAMs the best you can do. You are right though that to get the absolute best out of a lot the modern ordnance you basically need more (laypersons terms) networking between systems than is currently widely available in that theatre and that's not happening any time soon...

Working on the basis that the Gucci kit isn't going to be provided in the near future we're back to asking what can be provided right now that can be used with minimal'ish training in theatre out of the box and I think the West has and is continuing to do a credible job at doing that.

One thing that has to be remembered is that the Ukrainians have proven amazingly inventive in using whatever they do have to hand. Even not-top-line kit is going to be used to the maximum effectiveness.

Things Happening on the Kerch bridge, though it's not clear at all if it's an attack or something else. Russian govt claim it's ' training exercises' and to only trust info from "trusted sources".

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-23-2023

Key Takeaways

• Russian authorities ended the “counterterrorism” operation in Belgorod Oblast and claimed to have defeated the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and the Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) in the region on May 23.
• Russian forces likely pushed the RDK and LSR forces at least to the Kozinka border settlement and possibly out of Russian territory as of May 23.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted raids across the Kharkiv-Belgorod border on May 23, but ISW has observed no confirmation that these raids occurred.
• Ukrainian officials stated that the pace of fighting in the Bakhmut direction has decreased amid continued limited Ukrainian counterattacks on Bakhmut’s flanks on May 23.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Russian forces continued defensive operations in southern Ukraine ahead of the planned Ukrainian counteroffensive.
• Pardoned Wagner Group convicts continue to commit crimes in Russia after finishing their military contracts with Wagner.
• Zaporizhia Oblast occupation officials announced the start of preliminary voting for the ruling United Russia party.

Today's UK Int Update is mostly fluff.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Intelligence chief: Ukraine has enough weapons (https://kyivindependent.com/budanov-says-ukraine-has-enough-weapons-counteroffensive-will-start-soon/), counteroffensive to begin 'soon'.
Ukrainian military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said in an interview with the Japan Broadcasting Corporation on May 23 that Ukraine has enough weapons and the long-awaited counteroffensive would begin "soon."

⚡️General Staff: Russian forces unsuccessfully attempt to advance (https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-evening-update-may-23/) on village near Bakhmut.
Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to advance on the village of Khromove near Bakhmut, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported in its evening update on May 23.

⚡️ISW: Ukraine's General Staff does not report (https://kyivindependent.com/isw-15/) fighting in the city of Bakhmut for first time since December.

⚡️Borrell: Several countries start training (https://kyivindependent.com/borrell-several-countries-start-training-ukrainian-pilots-on-f-16-jets/)Ukrainian pilots on F-16 jets.

Ukraine war latest: Kyiv denies (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-kyiv-denies-eu-diplomacy-chiefs-claim-that-ukrainian-pilots-began-f-16-training/) EU diplomacy chief’s claim that Ukrainian pilots began F-16 training

⚡️US official: F-16 jets to take 'several months at best (https://kyivindependent.com/us-official-f-16-jets-to-take-several-months-at-best-to-arrive-in-ukraine/)' to arrive in Ukraine.

⚡️Ukraine receives (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-receives-another-1-5-billion-euros-in-eu-macro-financial-assistance/) another 1.5 billion euros in EU macro-financial assistance.
This is the fourth tranche of the 18 billion euro package, which is transferred to Ukraine's state budget in installments throughout the year.

⚡️Swiss bank freezes (https://kyivindependent.com/swiss-bank-freezes-some-accounts-of-russian-belarusian-clients/) some accounts of Russian, Belarusian clients.
One of the largest Swiss banks Julius Baer began freezing the investment accounts of its Russian and Belarusian clients at the request of the central securities depository Euroclear, Forbes Russia reported on May 23 with a confirmation from the bank.

⚡️Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba began his second African tour this week, starting in Morocco, as he seeks to challenge Russia's influence on the continent. (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-foreign-minister-beings-his-second-africa-tour/)

⚡️'Counter-terrorist operation' in Russia's Belgorod region canceled (https://kyivindependent.com/counter-terrorist-operation-in-russias-belgorod-region-canceled/).
Vyacheslav Gladkov, the governor of Russia's Belgorod Oblast, reported calling off the "counter-terrorist operation" shortly after Russian Defense Ministry announced a defeat of the Belgorod incursion.

⚡️ NYT: Anti-Kremlin fighters appear to use U.S.-made armored vehicles (https://kyivindependent.com/nyt-anti-kremlin-fighters-appear-to-use-u-s-made-armored-vehicles/).
Armed Russian anti-government groups appear to have used at least three American-made armored vehicles in the Belgorod Oblast incursion, according to the pictures and videos verified by The New York Times.

⚡️NYT: Ukrainian soldiers didn't enter (https://kyivindependent.com/nyt-ukrainian-soldiers-didnt-enter-russias-belgorod-region-but-played-support-role-at-border/) Russia's Belgorod region but played support role at border.
No Ukrainian soldier entered Russia's territory during a combat operation in the Belgorod region conducted by armed Russian anti-government groups who claim to be fighting on Ukraine's side, the New York Times wrote, citing a senior Ukrainian official.

⚡️Shmyhal: $16 million allocated to 7 oblasts (https://kyivindependent.com/16-million-allocated-to-seven-oblasts-for-reconstruction/) for reconstruction efforts.

⚡️ Search related to ex-Supreme Court head corruption case uncovers $500,000 (https://kyivindependent.com/search-related-to-ex-supreme-court-head-corruption-case-uncovers-500-000-hidden-by-accomplices/).
According to the authorities, the cash was stored by the alleged accomplices of the detained ex-Supreme Court head Vsevolod Kniazev, who stands accused of bribery.

Investigative Stories from Ukraine: Activists uncover reconstruction embezzlement attempt (https://kyivindependent.com/investigative-stories-from-ukraine-activists-uncover-reconstruction-embezzlement-attempt-in-dnipro/) in Dnipro
Public Control uncovered an embezzlement scheme involving Tellor-Group, a company connected to wanted businessmen Volodymyr and Leonid Dubinsky.

⚡️Russian parliament adopts bill allowing foreign passport confiscation (https://kyivindependent.com/russias-state-duma-adopts-bill-allowing-authorities-to-confiscate-passports-u/) of military personnel.
Russia's State Duma adopted a bill on May 23 that grants authorities the power in certain cases to confiscate Russian citizens' foreign passports or declare them invalid, according to a press release on the State Duma's website.

⚡️France 'prepared' to provide security guarantees (https://kyivindependent.com/france-ready-to-consider-security-guarantees-for-ukraine/) for Ukraine.
France is "prepared to enter into agreements with Ukraine aimed at providing it with security guarantees," according to a statement published by the French Foreign Ministry on May 23.

⚡️Orban claims Ukraine can't win war (https://kyivindependent.com/orban-claims-ukraine-cant-win-war-kyiv-pledges-to-fight-until-complete-liberation-of-ukrainian-territories/), Kyiv pledges to fight until complete liberation of Ukrainian territories.

⚡️Russian state media: Gershkovich's detention extended (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-state-media-gershkovich-detention-extended/) until Aug 30.
A Moscow court extended Wall Street Journalist reporter Evan Gershkovich's detention until Aug. 30, Russian state media RIA Novosti reported on May 23.

⚡️ Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) detains suspected Russian spy (https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-detains-russian-spy-collecting-data-on-air-defenses-in-cherkasy/)collecting data on air defenses.
The detainee is a resident of Kherson Oblast who was allegedly recruited by Russian intelligence at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the SBU reported on May 23.

The Kyiv Independent becomes member center of OCCRP (https://kyivindependent.com/the-kyiv-independent-becomes-member-center-of-occrp/)
The Kyiv Independent joined the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP), a global network of investigative newsrooms, as a member center.
OCCRP is an independent award-winning non-profit organization launched in 2006 by journalists Drew Sullivan and Paul Radu. The network unites dozens of media outlets from across continents.

⚡️Ukrainian authorities: Byzantine-era gold stolen by Russians (https://kyivindependent.com/byzantine-era-gold-stolen-by-russians-in-occupied-crimea/)from occupied Crimea.

Lower personnel losses for the 2nd day and 'only' 21 artillery lost. Another helicopter though.

UNITED 24 Media Telegram

The EU does not rule out that Ukraine will receive the first F-16 fighter jets already in the fall, — Politico, citing a senior defense official in Central Europe.
The publication also refers to the adviser to the Minister of Defense of Ukraine and writes that the Netherlands will probably be the first country to hand over planes to Kyiv.

The IMF mission began the first review of the program in Ukraine. The fund representatives will determine the extent to which Ukraine fulfills the conditions. The mission focuses on assessing the government's progress in fulfilling political commitments and program conditions.
In March, the IMF's executive board approved a four-year, $15.6 billion financing package for Ukraine to help meet its wartime financial needs.

❗️By the end of the year, EU countries will train 15,000 Ukrainian soldiers. They also plan to send more weapons and anti-aircraft systems to Ukraine, — the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell.

The UK Defense Minister Ben Wallace paid an unannounced visit to Kyiv.

The lower house of the Parliament of the Russian Federation approved amendments to the withdrawal of passports from conscripts.
Conscripts must submit their passports to the Ministry of Internal Affairs or multi-functional centers within five days of the decision on conscription.

Despite previously reached agreements, Russia is not fulfilling its obligations under the grain agreement, said Matthew Miller, a representative of the US State Department.
"The parties agreed to ensure the unimpeded export of Ukrainian grain from three ports. Now Russia refuses to let ships enter one of them. This obviously violates its obligations under the Black Sea Grain Initiative," said Miller.
He noted that the Russian Federation continues to obstruct the normal functioning of the grain corridor

Germany transferred TRML-4D anti-aircraft radar, drones and automobile equipment to Ukraine, — an updated list of military aid to Ukraine.

The Ukrainian military are undergoing special training on maintenance of the M270 MLRS, according to the British Ministry of Defense

For the first time, the Norwegian engineering vehicle NM189 Ingeniørpanservogn entered service with the Armed Forces.
It is equipped with a crane boom, a dump truck and cable winches to perform the tasks of preparing defensive positions, clearing paths and creating passages in enemy engineering barriers. @MissConductUS

❗️Most EU countries supported the increase of the European Peace Fund by 3.5 billion euros. Fund funds are used to purchase weapons for Ukraine.
According to Borrell the EU has already provided Ukraine with various assistance worth 65 billion euros. In particular, this year, Ukraine received 220,000 artillery shells and 1,300 missiles worth 800 million euros from the allies.
The European Peace Fund will cover part of these costs. In total, the fund received requests for compensation for the supply of arms to Ukraine worth €10 billion.
24 EU countries have already joined the initiative to expand the production of 155-mm artillery shells for the Armed Forces, €1 billion has been allocated for these needs.

Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder said that "about next week," the Ukrainians will begin training on 31 Abrams tanks that arrived in Germany at the beginning of May.
It is noted that about 250 Ukrainian tankers will arrive in Germany this week. The training will last approximately 10 weeks.

NATO countries should expand military production to simultaneously supply weapons to Ukraine and replenish their own stockpiles. This was stated by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.

Moldova will implement the decision of the International Criminal Court and arrest Putin if he comes to the country, — President Maia Sandu

After the victory, Ukraine will become a member of the European Union, — Scholz

🇺🇸 The head of the Pentagon, Lloyd Austin, last month began preparing a change in the US position on the F-16 for Ukraine and the training of Ukrainian pilots on Western fighters, — NYT. A Defense Department official said Austin received unanimous approval from Biden's top national security officials.

The United States should compensate Russia for the destruction of Artemovsk (Bakhmut), Mariupol and a bunch of other places, — Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Russia Pushes India for Help to Avert Global Financial Isolation
The Financial Action Task Force suspended Russia’s membership over the invasion of Ukraine. Moscow is trying to avoid being blacklisted next month.
The Kremlin is pressuring governments including India behind the scenes, threatening to upend defense and energy deals unless they help block expected moves aimed at turning Russia into a financial pariah state over its invasion of Ukraine.
Documents seen by Bloomberg (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-23/putin-pushes-india-to-help-russia-avoid-fatf-global-financial-blacklist?srnd=premium-europe#xj4y7vzkg) and accounts by officials in NATO countries familiar with the situation offer a rare insight into how Russia is targeting commercial partners ahead of a June meeting of the global watchdog against money-laundering.
The Financial Action Task Force, an inter-governmental organization that sets standards for combating dirty money, suspended Russia from membership in February and Ukraine is pushing for the body to impose further restrictions by adding Moscow to its “black list” or “gray list.”

Germany transferred to Ukraine a TRML-4D air defense radar, two Biber bridge paving machines, three mobile demining systems, as well as 46 Vector reconnaissance UAVs, eight anti-drone weapons, and one electronic intelligence system.
The list also mentions the provision of vehicles: six border guard vehicles, two 8x6 trucks, five truck tractors with semi-trailers, 34 pickups and eight Zetros trucks.

The Russian Volunteer Corps stated that it did not suffer any losses in the battles in Belgorod region and does not know about the columns of destroyed equipment reported by the Russian Defense Ministry. Regarding the photos with the bodies of people in Ukrainian Armed Forces uniforms published by propagandists, the RVC emphasizes that they do not wear uniforms in the pixel.

During the operation in the Belgorod region, no Ukrainian soldiers entered Russian territory; units participating in the operation suffered minor losses - NYT, citing (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/23/world/europe/free-russia-legion-ukraine.html) a Ukrainian official who spoke on condition of anonymity

🇬🇧🇺🇦 British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace has arrived in Ukraine. He met with Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov and discussed priorities in arming the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The issue of long-range weapons, such as Storm Shadow missiles, was raised separately.

No one will be allowed to enter hospitals in temporarily occupied Berdiansk, Zaporizhzhia region without a Russian passport
The occupiers are planning to switch the Berdiansk hospital to Russian software as soon as possible. The program works exclusively through an electronic key, which can be obtained with a Russian passport at the occupation tax office.
This means that in Berdiansk, a patient or doctor without a Russian passport will not be able to be admitted, treated or work.

The Belarusian opposition in exile claims that Lukashenko's regime is involved in Russia's war crime of deporting Ukrainian children. Sky News cites (https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-latest-fight-between-ukrainian-and-russian-officials-over-flag-can-a-squadron-of-eagle-interceptors-protect-kremlin-12541713) a report that 2,150 Ukrainian children were deported from Ukraine to Belarus to so-called recreation camps and sanatoriums. Among them are orphans aged 6 to 15.

🇧🇾 Self-proclaimed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko confirmed that he had been absent from public for a long time due to illness. But he said it was not serious. He said he had contracted the adenovirus, but could not start treatment for a long time because of work.

🇿🇦🇪🇬🇿🇲🇺🇬🇨🇬🇸🇳 Six African leaders will propose that Ukraine start peace talks with Russia, even if the latter's troops remain on Ukrainian territory. According to Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/world/african-leaders-seek-persuade-russia-ukraine-cease-hostilities-2023-05-22/), South Africa, Egypt, Zambia, Uganda, the Republic of Congo, and Senegal have joined the initiative. They want to promote their "peace plan" during their visits to Kyiv and Moscow in early June.

The answer to why? about the Belgorod incursion (other than making Russia look utterly stupid)

Business Ukraine mag
AT BizUkraineMag

For the past six months, the Russian military has been preparing to defend the green line on this map against Ukraine’s expected counteroffensive. With its Belgorod raid and other border incursions, Ukraine aims to force Russia to defend the entire red line

For the first time, the Norwegian engineering vehicle NM189 Ingeniørpanservogn entered service with the Armed Forces.
It is equipped with a crane boom, a dump truck and cable winches to perform the tasks of preparing defensive positions, clearing paths and creating passages in enemy engineering barriers. @MissConductUS

Thanks for flagging this up for me, ducks. I was a bit confused by the reference to a dump truck. In the US, that term refers to a construction vehicle with a large bin on its back which is filled with sand, dirt, gravel etc. The bin is titled up to dump the contents on the ground. I found this video of the NM189 in action. You can see it best at 16 seconds in.

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1282358051836980

It has a dozer blade in the front, which is used to clear mines or fill in trenches, as in the video example. The scoop-like bit on the back is what I would call an excavator. In the video, it's filling in an antitank trench, which is then crossed by an American M1 tank.

It looks like a fine vehicle and I hope the Ukrainians get plenty of them. The 50-caliber machine gun is a nice touch as well.

More from Prigozhin who isn't even pretending the invasion of Ukraine has a higher cause any more.
He refers in the second clip to the optimistic scenario being that China forces Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table and Russia gets to keep the areas it has seized (not likely he concedes) - the pessimistic scenario is that Ukraines counteroffensive is successful.

Yevgeny #Prigozhin covered a lot of topics in his most recent interview including how he believes ‘Russia needs to live in the image of North #Korea for a certain number of years.’

https://twitter.com/kyivpost/status/1661352793037328384?s=61&t=NaIdJ_hpeHJ7BCXblc3CMg

https://twitter.com/gerashchenkoen/status/1661336171803291649?s=61&t=NaIdJJ_hpeHJ7BCXblc3CMg

I saw a bit of a transcript of that @DesdamonasHandkerchief

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/24/7403623/

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner Group PMC, has said that Russia should prepare for a heavy war, introduce martial law and announce new waves of mobilisation, as well as "close all borders", as in North Korea, in order to not lose the country.
Source: Meduza citing Yevgeny Prigozhin in an interview with a pro-Kremlin political technologist, Konstantin Dolgov
Quote: "We are now in a state where we can simply lose Russia. Therefore, we must introduce martial law, we must announce new waves of mobilisation, we must transfer everyone we can to the ammunition production.
We must stop spending money on nothing, stop building new roads, new infrastructure facilities and work only for the war.
Russia needs to live like North Korea for a certain number of years, to close all borders, stop playing nice, take all our offsprings from abroad and work hard. Then we will see some results."

Details: Prigozhin responded with outrage that Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu's "son-in-law walks around aimlessly, while his daughter’s opening Kronshlot forts" instead of spending money on ammunition.
According to him, "children of ordinary people return in zinc coffins, torn to pieces" due to the so-called "special operation", while the children of the elite show off their luxurious and carefree lives.

So in other words, he wants Russia to become N Korea; he wants to expand Russia but doesn't give a shit about the conditions people live in. It's fine to sledgehammer people and to toss grenades into pits with wounded & old & children in as long as you're Russian, even if the wounded are Russian. It's fine to live without infrastructure, outside toilets etc .. but you have to be Russian.

In his mind Russian seems to be a synonym for living in a sewer.

Germany may be next in line to supply air-launched cruise missiles to Ukraine.

Germany’s Taurus Cruise Missile Could Be The Next For Ukraine - Pressure is building for Germany to approve a transfer of the air-launched cruise missiles to Ukraine, following the U.K. and France.

This would follow the established process of letting another country or two establish the precedent, then supplying a similar weapon. These have a 500km range, significantly longer than Storm Shadow and the French version.

Taurus has range of 500 km. Hellooo, Kerch Bridge

Makes sense that Prigozhin wants to impose martial law and have Russia become a North Korea prison state. Plenty of prisoners there to feed his war machine.