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Ukraine Invasion: Part 40

994 replies

MagicFox · 13/05/2023 15:17

40 threads, still here πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

OP posts:
Thread gallery
221
notimagain · 21/05/2023 05:38

FWIW on the flying side of things there were 2-3 year exchange postings between the RAF and most NATO Air Forces, so as well as American air crew you'd find for example French and Germans on exchange with the RAF, plus personnel the major Commonwealth countries such as Australia and New Zealand.

I'm guessing the British army has a similar spread of nationalities on exchange ... as @MissConductUS say it all helps with fostering close working relationships across all the allies.

Mb76 · 21/05/2023 08:59

The fall of Bakhmut hurts me very much 😭

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 21/05/2023 09:07

⚑️Zelensky's spokesperson denies he admitted losing Bakhmut.

In a Facebook post, Sergii Nykyforov clarified that Zelensky's reply, "I think no," was in response to a reporter's question on whether Russian forces had taken Bakhmut.

twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1660186469116305410?s=46&t=eNB9C4pL0g2Opkl4oCmOsQ

Igotjelly · 21/05/2023 09:12

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 21/05/2023 09:07

⚑️Zelensky's spokesperson denies he admitted losing Bakhmut.

In a Facebook post, Sergii Nykyforov clarified that Zelensky's reply, "I think no," was in response to a reporter's question on whether Russian forces had taken Bakhmut.

twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1660186469116305410?s=46&t=eNB9C4pL0g2Opkl4oCmOsQ

oh I hope so πŸ’™πŸ’›

MagicFox · 21/05/2023 09:16

Not good news to wake up to if true about Bakhmut

OP posts:
notimagain · 21/05/2023 09:20

MagicFox · 21/05/2023 09:16

Not good news to wake up to if true about Bakhmut

I'm not sure it is, I've seen no mention (at least so far today) of it being confirm elsewhere and also see @DesdamonasHandkerchief 's comment.

Time will tell.

MagicFox · 21/05/2023 09:28

@notimagain 🀞

OP posts:
DesdamonasHandkerchief · 21/05/2023 10:07

It seems that UkAF still have a small presence in Bakhmut, but most of their activity is now on the flanks:

twitter.com/euan_macdonald/status/1660201705126936576?s=46&t=eNB9C4pL0g2Opkl4oCmOsQ

Ukraine still has a toe-hold in Bakhmut. But the question now is whether it can keep making gains on the flanks of the city.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 21/05/2023 10:08

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-20-2023

Key Takeaways

  • Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin declared victory in Bakhmut City on May 20 and announced his intent to withdraw from the city on May 25.
  • Prigozhin’s claimed victory over the remaining areas in Bakhmut is purely symbolic even if true.
  • Ukrainian forces continue pressuring Bakhmut’s northern and southern flanks.
  • Wagner forces are unlikely to successfully conduct a controlled withdrawal from Bakhmut while in contact with Ukrainian forces within five days without disrupting the Russian MoD’s efforts to prepare for planned Ukrainian counteroffensives.
  • Russian conventional forces likely will still need to transfer additional forces to the Bakhmut direction even if Wagner mercenaries remain in Bakhmut.
  • Russian forces targeted Kyiv Oblast with Iranian-made Shahed drones on the night of May 19 to 20.
  • US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan stated on May 20 that the United States may agree to transfer modern combat aircraft to Ukraine, including the F-16, on the condition that Ukraine does not use them to strike Russian territory.
  • Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that Russian sources are falsely alleging that high-ranking Ukrainian military commanders have recently died, likely to demoralize Ukrainian forces and to portray Russian forces as constraining Ukrainian counteroffensive capabilities.
  • Russian forces continued limited ground attacks in the Kreminna area.
  • Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
  • The Washington Post reported on May 19 that a Ukrainian commander stated that Ukrainian Special Operations forces conduct raids in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast but that Ukrainian forces do not hold stable positions there.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is incorporating mobilized and conscripted personnel into its own β€œVeterany” private military company (PMC), leading to discrimination and conflict.
  • A Lithuanian official publicly accused Russia of attempting to hold international children hostage in occupied Crimea as β€œhuman shields” against a future Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 40
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 21/05/2023 10:17

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚑️G7 leaders condemn (https://kyivindependent.com/g7-leaders-condemn-russias-war-at-summit/) Russia's 'brutal' war at summit.
"We once again condemn in the strongest terms the war of aggression by Russia against Ukraine, which constitutes a serious violation of international law, including the UN Charter," the G7 leaders said at the group's summit in Hiroshima, Japan, on May 20.

⚑️US announces $375 million in military aid (https://kyivindependent.com/pentagon-announces-375-million-in-military-aid-for-ukraine/)for** Ukraine.
The U.S. Department of Defense announced a new military aid package for Ukraine worth $375 million on May 21

⚑️ Ukraine's defense intelligence: Russia able to produce (https://kyivindependent.com/defense-intelligence-russia-exhausts-old-missile-stockpiles-new-rockets-fresh-from-assembly-line/) up to 67 missiles per month.
Russia has likely used up its missile stockpiles but has successfully established a production line for fresh munitions.

⚑️CNN: Biden (https://kyivindependent.com/cnn-3/) to meet with Zelensky in Japan on May 21

⚑️ICC slams (https://kyivindependent.com/untitled-46/) Russian arrest warrant for top prosecutor, judges.
The International Criminal Court stated on May 20 that it is "profoundly concerned" after Russia issued an arrest warrant for a prosecutor and judges who issued a warrant for Russian dictator Vladimir Putin.

⚑️ Ukraine’s military: Russia bringing (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-military-russia-bringing-airborne-motorized-rifle-units-to-bakhmut/) airborne, motorized rifle units to Bakhmut.

⚑️ Prigozhin says (https://kyivindependent.com/prigozhin-says-wagner-captured-bakhmut-ukraine-denies-claims/) Wagner captured Bakhmut, Ukraine denies claim.
β€œToday, at 12 noon, Bahmut was completely taken,” Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed in a video purporting to show him holding a Russian flag in the embattled city. β€œWe completely took the whole city, from house to house.”

⚑️General Staff says Battle for Bakhmut continues (kyivindependent.com/general-staff-battle-for-bakhmut-doesnt-stop/).
The battle for Bakhmut "does not stop," as Russian forces continue to conduct offensive operations to capture the entire city, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces said on May 21 in its morning briefing.

⚑️PM: Italy may train (https://kyivindependent.com/italy-may-join-coalition-of-countries-aiming-to-provide-modern-fighter-jets-to-ukraine/) Ukrainian pilots but can't supply F-16s.

⚑️ Ukrainians who took Russian passports (https://kyivindependent.com/ombudsman-citizens-who-took-russian-passports-under-pressure-will-not-be-punished/) under pressure will not be punished.
"If you cannot leave (occupied territories) for various reasons, and in order to survive, you are forced to get a Russian passport – take it and survive," Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said on TV.

⚑️Pope Francis appoints Cardinal Zuppi to lead peace mission (https://kyivindependent.com/pope-francis-appoints-cardinal-zuppi-to-lead-peace-mission-in-ukraine/) in Ukraine.

⚑ Lavrov claims (https://kyivindependent.com/lavrov-claims-g7-intent-on-double-containment-of-russia-china/) G7 intent on β€˜double containment’ of Russia, China.
β€œThe task was set loudly and openly – to defeat Russia on the battlefield, but not to stop there, but to eliminate it as a geopolitical competitor,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed amid the ongoing G7 summit in Hiroshima. [yawn]

⚑️Rheinmetall wants (https://kyivindependent.com/untitled-47/) joint enterprise with Ukraine to produce armored vehicles.
German automotive and defense manufacturer Rheinmetall wants to work jointly with Ukrainian state defense contractor Ukroboronprom to manufacture Fuchs armored personnel carriers, Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger told German publication Bild.
Papperger said that the German conglomerate would like to start out servicing and repairing ambulances, then move on to making armored vehicles.

29 Artillery lost! and 730 personnel. The shaping operation continues.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 40
Ukraine Invasion: Part 40
DesdamonasHandkerchief · 21/05/2023 10:28

From Noelreports on twitter:

Putin immediately took advantage of the wrong Reuters headline/quotes and β€œcongratulated” the Wagner assault detachment for capturing Bakhmut while also complimenting the Russian Armed Forces for holding the flanks, providing safety to the troops inside the city.

twitter.com/noelreports/status/1660200535310360576?s=12

I also saw, but now can't find, a tweet that stated Prigozhin claimed capture (of the smoking ruins) of Bakmuht on 20th May and expressed an intention for Wagner forces to withdraw on 25th May.
Speculation that the announcement of capture allows Wagner to withdraw avoiding encirclement by UkAF. Also speculation as to whether this can be an orderly withdrawal given the Ukrainian Army presence on the flanks.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 21/05/2023 10:28

UNITED24 Media Telegram

EU sanctions against the Russian Federation since the beginning of the war in Ukraine have reduced exports from the community to Russia by 55% or 50 billion euros per year, β€” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at the G7 summit in Hiroshima, Japan.
As of February 24, 2022, imports from the Russian Federation due to sanctions have decreased by 60%, or by 90 billion euros per year.

The Netherlands has canceled the sale of F-16s to Draken International. It was supposed to receive 40 F-16 fighters
The first 12 Dutch fighters have already been sold in 2022. However, the option for another 28 fighters was not exercised. [wonder where they will end up, eh?]

Ukraine hopes to receive F-16 fighters in the fall of 2023. This was stated by the adviser to the Ministry of Defense, Yuriy Sak, in a comment to the Washington Post.

In Hiroshima, the leaders of the "seven" adopted a plan to counter Russia's energy blackmail, β€” CNN. [no details yet]

A new meeting in the Rammstein format will take place next week, said Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov.
"Strengthening air defense/anti-missile defense remains our No. 1 priority. Ground systems β€” from MANPADS to powerful batteries β€” and missiles to them are always in focus. We will talk about this, in particular, with colleagues," Reznikov wrote.

The new EU sanctions apply to more than 90 foreign companies, including those from China - the European Commission
According to von der Leyen, "about eight" companies are registered in China.
"This does not mean that these should be Chinese companies. These companies exist partially on paper and have owners from other countries. But they are registered in China, and we will be clear here," the official added.

Officially about the situation in Bakhmut from the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, β€” comments Hanna Malyar
Heavy fighting in Bakhmut. The situation is critical.
At the same time, our troops maintain defense in the "Litak" area.
Currently, Ukrainian defenders control certain industrial and infrastructure facilities of this territory and the private sector.

The head of the Rheinmetall concern, Armin Papperger, said that the priority of their new joint venture with Ukroboronprom would be the repair of armored vehicles that are already in service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine
And also β€” the establishment of the production of Fuchs armored personnel carriers. In the future, the management of Rheinmetall is considering the possibility of producing advanced equipment in Ukraine, in particular, Panther tanks and Lynx infantry fighting vehicles.

In the temporarily occupied Mariupol, a high-precision strike hit a dugout, β€” OSINT investigators.
"New satellite images show impact damage. This place is more than 70 km from the front line,” writes Brady Africa, an analyst with the American Enterprise Institute's Foreign and Defense Policy Research Division.
Ocinters suggest that the bunker could have been used as a command headquarters.

US Secretary of State Blinken was the main force behind the decision to provide Ukraine with American F-16 fighter jets, – The Washington Post
It was Antony Blinken who played a similar role in the winter, when Germany hesitated to send its tanks to Kyiv,
The publication also notes that the delivery time of fighters may not be so fast. Potential suppliers need time to check their arsenals, as well as the resources to conduct pilot training.

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ In Japan, Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with the Prime Minister of Great Britain Rishi Sunak. He also held a meeting with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and the president also met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, French President Emmanuel Macron.
President Zelenskyy thanked German Chancellor Olaf Scholz for the powerful defense assistance that Ukraine will receive.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 21/05/2023 10:39

I also saw, but now can't find, a tweet that stated Prigozhin claimed capture (of the smoking ruins) of Bakmuht on 20th May and expressed an intention for Wagner forces to withdraw on 25th May.

I saw the same.

  1. it's Prigozhin. Automatically untrustworthy - lets see what he does.
  2. is this another effort to leverage more out of the Russian MoD?
  3. they took Bakhmut. But are they afraid they cant hold it, so by withdrawing now (if they actually do) then they can blame the Russian army?
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 21/05/2023 10:45

Live: Ukraine Telegram

πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡ΊThe European Union will impose restrictions on 90 foreign companies in the 11th package of sanctions against Russia.
The European Commission has gathered evidence that they supplied sanctioned goods to Russia from the EU through third countries.

πŸ‡―πŸ‡΅Nikkei Asia writes that Japan imposes new sanctions against Russia:
▫️bans architectural and engineering services to Russians;
▫️freeze the assets of almost 100 people and organizations that are trying to avoid the current sanctions restrictions;
▫️ban exports for 80 Russian organizations associated with the Russian Armed Forces.

Explosions have been reported near Berdyansk Airport in the Russian-Occupied Zaporizhzhia Region
This Airport has been utilized by the Russian Armed Forces as a Major Helicopter Base since the City of Berdiansk was Captured by them earlier in the War.

Moldova does not consider Russia a strategic partner
This was stated by President of Moldova Maia Sandu.
"If you are not respected, this is definitely not a strategic partnership. When Russia has kept troops on our territory for 30 years against the will of our people, this is not a strategic partnership," the head of state said.

Former German Chancellor close to Putin was not invited to his own party's anniversary
We are talking about former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, known for his closeness to the Russian president.
According to SPD Secretary General Kevin Kunert, as long as Schroeder "is so close to the warmonger and aggressor, as was seen just last week during his visit to the Russian embassy, we have nothing in common."

A group of men in the Russian city of Belgorod are extremely concerned about the impending counteroffensive. For the impending Ukrainian counteroffensive, they requested that the Russian government provide weapons to them as well.

Georgetown University invites Navalny's daughter to speak at graduation: students protest.
The Russian woman was invited to speak to the graduates about freedom of speech, but the students objected. They wrote a number of letters to the university administration and signed a petition protesting the speech of the "good Russian woman." The signatories recalled how in 2014 Navalny stated that he would not return Crimea to Ukraine, as reported by Politico.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 40
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 21/05/2023 10:53

Tim White
AT TWMCLtd

I don't know what #Russia's Deputy Minister of Science and Higher Education had done wrong, but the seeminly fit and healthy 46 year old has keeled over on a flight. Pyotr Kucherenko, returning from a business trip to Cuba, died despite an emergency landing for treatment.

https://twitter.com/TWMCLtd

Chatillon · 21/05/2023 11:14

Moldova does not consider Russia a strategic partner
This was stated by President of Moldova Maia Sandu.
"If you are not respected, this is definitely not a strategic partnership. When Russia has kept troops on our territory for 30 years against the will of our people, this is not a strategic partnership," the head of state said.

I presume they are talking about Transnistria? In which case if the troops are now against the will of the people, drive them out. There are on a short licence now I suspect.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 21/05/2023 12:50

Yes, I think it's Transnistra. It would be great if they did drive them out but not sure they're ready to go that far

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 21/05/2023 13:25

Article from The Sunday Times:

What it means if Bakhmut has finally fallen

Russian mercenaries are claiming to have control of the city but Zelensky has vowed he will never let it be taken over. Which side is to be believed?

The first Russian shell landed in Bakhmut on May 17, 2022. Almost exactly a year later, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of Russia’s Wagner Group of mercenaries, stood in a bombed-out square in the town and announced: β€œToday, at 12 noon, Bakhmut was completely taken.”
Kyiv immediately disputed his claim. President Zelensky said today at the G7 summit in Hiroshima that Bakhmut was β€œnot occupied by Russia”.
He added: β€œThe photos of Hiroshima remind me of Bakhmut. There is absolutely nothing alive, all the buildings are destroyed. Absolute total destruction. There is nothing, there are no people.”

On Sunday morning the situation report from the Ukrainian Ground Forces read: β€œIn the Bakhmut area the enemy continues to carry out offensive operations. The battle for the city of Bakhmut is not ending.”
However, President Putin congratulated Wagner on seizing the town.
Reaching around in the fog of war to verify rapidly shifting fortunes on the battlefield is never easy. When both sides are desperate for a psychological advantage in anticipation of a big Ukrainian offensive, it is almost impossible.
Whose version of events is more plausible? And why, a year later, does the battle for this city once famed for its salt mines and β€œSoviet champagne” hold such significance?
If confirmed, the Wagner Groupp_ taking Bakhmut would be the first significant prize for Russia in ten months and a blow to Ukrainian morale. Both countries have endured enormous losses in the fight for Bakhmut, sustaining casualties believed to be in the thousands, although neither side has disclosed numbers, while expending vast quantities of ammunition and reducing much of the city to rubble.
In March President Zelenskyy_ said that Kyiv could not allow Bakhmut to fall. A Russian breakthrough there would enable President Putin to β€œsell this victory to the West, to his society, to China, to Iran”, the Ukrainian leader said. β€œIf he will feel some blood smell that we are weak he will push, push, push.”

The defence establishment in Moscow, which has been a frequent target of Prigozhin’s contempt in social media videos, has not endorsed his claimed triumph.
Prigozhinn_ is also an unreliable witness: an attention-seeking former petty criminal who has previously made numerous empty boasts about his organisation’s exploits in Bakhmut. This time, however, there are grounds to believe him.
Last week Ukrainian troops retained a foothold in the far southwest tip of the city. Their escape route, the T0504, labelled the β€œroad of death” by Ukrainian troops, remained just about passable. However, their focus also appeared to be shifting away from the urban areas of Bakhmut, which Prigozhin said his forces had taken β€œhouse by house”.
That matters because Bakhmut’s symbolic value has always been more important than its negligible strategic importance. For Russian forces, Bakhmut could be seen as a gateway to attack the more populous cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, which, with a railway depot, has greater strategic importance. However, preventing that alone was not worth the 100 to 200 casualties a day that Ukraine suffered in the bleakest points of the battle.

Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky, the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, has often stressed the importance of morale and the psychological aspects of warfare. Throughout the winter, while the war ground largely to a halt along its 600-mile front line, the battle for Bakhmut absorbed disproportionate attention.
The outnumbered Ukrainian forces were cast in the role of defenders, holding on against the odds. Since 2014 the Ukrainian government’s preferred term for a soldier has been β€œzakhysnyk” or β€œdefender” β€” emphasising on whose land they are shedding blood.
Over the past month that dynamic changed subtly. A series of offensives on Russian positions on May 9 to the south of the town and May 11 to the northwest generated a new narrative of Ukrainian success.

Syrsky, seeing that the T0504 was likely to fall and their foothold in built up areas was increasingly untenable, knew it was imperative to tell a different story: one of lighting offensives in the fields around the town.
The Wagner mercenaries desperate to show they have seized the town they call β€œArtyomovsk”, its Soviet name have fought house to house in the city centre, but if their positions to the northwest and south of the city are vulnerable can they really claim they hold Bakhmut? If that is what Prigozhin calls victory it is a Pyrrhic one.
Despite fighting for the city for ten months, Prigozhin said on Saturday that his fighters would only hold it for five days before handing it over to regular Russian troops. This is a power play, goading Putin to give him the ammunition he needs to hold his positions or else he will fall back and expose the weaknesses of the regular troops and conscripts Prigozhin has repeatedly denounced as β€œcowards”.
Syrsky said that Wagner troops had fallen back from fields outside the town into urban areas β€œlike rats into a mouse trap”.
The British Ministry of Defence said these advances had drawn in Russian reserves, potentially weakening the depth of Moscow’s defensive lines elsewhere as Ukraine prepares for its widely anticipated counteroffensive.
β€œThe Ukrainians have achieved two things with these attacks to the north and south,” said Michael Clarke, a visiting professor in defence studies at King’s College London. β€œThey’ve taken attention away from the fact that they’ve effectively lost the urban centre but they’ve given the Russians something else to worry about.”
Even if the Wagner Group has seized every building in Bakhmut, Russia’s moment of victory will fade quickly if Ukrainian assault brigades are able to sweep around them in a pincer movement.
Very soon, both sides know, the bragging rights that come with holding a part of Bakhmut’s ruined cityscape will matter far less than what is happening elsewhere along the front line.
β€œWhat’s happening in the city is that the Ukrainians have effectively lost Bakhmut but they don’t have to admit it until they absolutely lose control of the T0504,” Clarke added. β€œIt doesn’t matter [if they have left the city] as long as you don’t have to admit it to the world.
β€œIf you can hold on for another week or ten days it will become irrelevant as it [the fate of Bakhmut] will just be lost in the general offensive when it begins.”

minsmum · 21/05/2023 14:39

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1660273337744982023 firm in says that the battle for Bakhmut was unnecessary and phyrric for Russia

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1660273337744982023

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 21/05/2023 14:45

β€œIf you can hold on for another week or ten days it will become irrelevant as it [the fate of Bakhmut] will just be lost in the general offensive when it begins.”

If this is the time scale then Wagner withdrawing makes perfect sense, from a certain perspective.

borntobequiet · 21/05/2023 14:49

The picture I saw of the Russian flag being held up by Wagner mercenaries in a devastated, ruined Bakhmut really doesn’t convey the image they think it does.

Surplus2requirements · 21/05/2023 14:58

borntobequiet · 21/05/2023 14:49

The picture I saw of the Russian flag being held up by Wagner mercenaries in a devastated, ruined Bakhmut really doesn’t convey the image they think it does.

Exactly, supposed 'liberaters' standing in the remains of their scorched earth policy

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 21/05/2023 15:14

So true borntobequiet

MissConductUS · 21/05/2023 15:24

minsmum · 21/05/2023 14:39

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1660273337744982023 firm in says that the battle for Bakhmut was unnecessary and phyrric for Russia

Girkin pretty much nails it here. Wagner has culminated and is withdrawing so they can return to Africa to fight civilians. Regular RU forces are left to occupy the rubble with no tactical or strategic benefit, and the UAF still controls the main road and have taken positions to the west on higher ground.

I think they'll rest and reinforce those units until they're needed for the counteroffensive while harassing the Russians in the city.