Ukraine Invasion: Part 40

[MagicFox]

40 threads, still here 🇺🇦

Putin’s approval rating has risen, as is common with any war leader, even ones that may be losing. We had Gen. Cavoli of EURCOM say this month that while the ground forces are eroded, Russia is still a multi-domain threat to be reckoned with. I recall during the opening weeks of the war when things started to unravel for Russia and the VKS proved they couldn’t do SEAD for shit, having to tell people that this wasn’t a fault of Soviet/Russian hardware. First of all, Ukraine, the winning side at that point, was using the same or inferior variants. Secondly, the doctrine of the USSR didn’t really change much, and so the lack of adaptability in the field led to horrific leadership decisions and loss of COs in the battles to come. Russia has learnt from that.
Remember, Ukraine is relying very heavily on Western aid, primarily much older hardware than NATO would field in a true peer war. There’s only so much of that kicking about, especially when Europe has far less stock than the MIC infatuated US.

There are no wunderwaffen that will win this war. I like to think we’re smart enough here to realise that HIMARS, even with GMLRS or, hell, ATACMS, doesn’t automatically give the UAF the win. It just bleeds a lot more Russians of men and equipment that then gets replaced. Unpopular as the war is, no one is overthrowing Putin and rolling a hard six on changing the outcome here. It’s an attritional war, and Ukraine is the weaker side here without vast input from NATO. Manpower is a much bigger problem. Who does Ukraine recruit from if the vaunted counteroffensive goes badly?

Russia’s economy continues to chug along despite all the rouble is collapsing propaganda put out in the news.

Any hope for a quick end to this war has long since gone. Russia is not taking Kyiv (to the thankfulness of friends I have in the north of the city) and Ukraine is not going back to pre-2014 borders, Crimea is far too defensible. Mike Kofman is a good source on this in the War on the Rocks podcast.

So, this is a proxy war that we can’t pull out of without losing a lot of face while at the same time domestic audiences deal with inflationary pressures and see dedollarisation become a talking point for those less enthused to be dragged around by the flailing US hegemony.

Pretty interesting times, methinks. Is this going to be a state of affairs that in five years time is still percolating through the news cycle? I sure hope not.

Not if it has achieved an aim of grinding down UAF in the area and eaten up more time. Remember, time is on Russia's side given no drastic change in outlook from the population. Without a mass movement against mobilisation, should that be needed again, Russia will just keep whittling down the forces in piecemeal fashion. They obviously don't care too much about the penal units sent ahead to act as fodder, and they are needing to reconstitute their forces even units that are still more or less intact for MoD, given Wagner's presence.

The spring offensive hasn't shown up yet, or at least I hope it hasn't, given what has transpired. Which means either a summer one, or UAF is finding it hard to amass the needed materiel and manpower to do something that gives results the West will see as worth it.

And if the Russians "win", they then have all the fun of occupying the completely hostile territory they have "gained".

Before their attempted blitzkrieg and utterly repulsive treatment of civilians, there may have been some support for Russia in Ukraine. Maybe as much as 15%. After it, Russian-speaking Ukrainians (like Zelenskyy) have switched to speaking Ukrainian and there is likely to be considerably less enthusiasm for "our Russian brothers"; keeping the Ukrainian population pacified may be a seriously difficult job.

Honestly, I expect them to keep the four regions and Crimea and leave it at that. I don’t see how they take Ukraine proper.

The four regions and the Crimea are part of Ukraine proper.

As often seems to happen, evil killer and airliner shooter downer Igor Girkin / Strelkov has an almost sensible analysis of what has happened. The Cook is Progozhin and he likes to use the term 'cretins'.

He continues.

And concludes.

Source: Michael Weiss passing on wartranslated / Dmitri.

As others have said Crimea and the 4 annexed territories are “Ukraine proper” and I absolutely do not envisage Russia keeping them, considering they don’t even occupy them in full now.

There is no way Ukraine is taking Crimea. They’ve not even taken Bakhmut.

I think you need to reassess the reality in the ground. Russia is not going anywhere, and Ukraine doesn’t have time on its side.

In my view it's is not enough for Russia not to win.
For Western security in the long term Russia has to substantially lose ground from the pre full scale invasion lines before there is even talks about talks. Ideally back to the internationally recognised borders.

However it pans out it has to be clear that taking sovereign territory by military force is a clear act of self harm.

Touché

The reality is the 4 illegally occupied regions and illegally occupied Crimea is and will always be Ukraine. Russia may wish it otherwise, it may take time but Russia will be defeated

I don’t think the NATO dream of declawing Russia is going to transpire now. They’re far too resilient as an economy, and their military isn’t making the same glaring mistakes of the past while still being more than enough to hold and even gain ground of late.

We’ll see what comes of this (summer?) offensive, when it materialises. That should give a good indicator as to how realistic taking back the Donbas is, for instance.

The big unknown is how much longer we can tolerate Ukraine burning through capital and men and old weapons stocks before it becomes a liability to the public and leaders.

Are your posts satirical? @Liebig

@Mb76 I thought the same, remember the penguins. Smile and wave boys , smile and wave

I had thought the same but they’re very active on other threads so unfortunately I suspect more like someone sucked in by the Kremlin narrative.

When I read "flailing US hegemony" my first thought was vatnik.

The spring offensive hasn't shown up yet, or at least I hope it hasn't, given what has transpired.

Now that's a very silly comment. If you've been following the war at all you know it hasn't. If you've really been following it, you know roughly when the counteroffensive is likely to happen.

minsmum · Today 15:39
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1660273337744982023 firm in says that the battle for Bakhmut was unnecessary and phyrric for Russia
Not if it has achieved an aim of grinding down UAF in the area and eaten up more time.

You're aware that none of the newly trained, rested troops and very little/none of the Western hardware has been involved in Bakhmut? No?

So, this is a proxy war that we can’t pull out of without losing a lot of face while at the same time domestic audiences deal with inflationary pressures and see dedollarisation become a talking point for those less enthused to be dragged around by the flailing US hegemony .

Hmm. Our agenda is to support Ukraine, which is going through terrible times.

What's yours? Because it's generally anti-Americans who come out with phrasing like "the flailing US hegemony". Now there's a very great deal wrong with the USA (sorry @MissConductUS but there is) ... but it's better than a long way than Russia or China. It's the anti-Americans who dislike the support for Ukraine, since the US and the EU are the main supporters of Ukraine.

Starting to get a funny feeling about you Liebig.

It's possible they are Marxist, from a brief look elsewhere. Most Marxists still have thick blinkers on about Russia and can't look at the reality.

Rather nice photo from the G7

My sense of trompage comes from the suggestion that "their military isn’t making the same glaring mistakes of the past". Unless Russia has completely restructured the army and the command system, to include old-soldier NCOs with many years experience whom they did not have two years ago, they will be.

Great photo of support for Zelensky. Waiting for the day when Ukraine can truly be a part of the free world.