Ukraine Invasion: Part 40

[MagicFox]

40 threads, still here 🇺🇦

That looks like an excellent analysis. I've just read the executive summary (I'll read the rest over the weekend), and this stood out to me:

The conclusion therefore is that the Russian Armed Forces pose a significant challenge for the Ukrainian military on the defence. Nevertheless, if Ukraine
can disrupt Russian defences and impose a dynamic situation on them, Russian units are likely to rapidly lose their coordination. Changes in the air combat environment, for example, have led rapidly to incidents of Russian fratricide.

I think that the coming counteroffensive will be quite a dynamic situation.

One surprise, though. I searched for the word "logistics" and it doesn't get mentioned until the section on armor. It's a serious weakness for Russian infantry, and something that is being targeted now as part of the interdiction campaign.

I'm assuming the last sentence refers to the introduction of the Storm Shadow missiles, which has reportedly made Russian air defense troops very twitchy.

Speaking of the counteroffensive, this was a pleasant bit of news, especially since they are bringing a complete set of kit with them from Sweden.

Up to 5,000 Ukrainian Troops Secretly Trained in Sweden – Media

These troops were not included in any analysis of the Ukrainian order of battle that I've seen previously.

awww ❤

"According to media reports, the Ukrainian brigade of 3,000 to 5,000 soldiers, was trained in Sweden, equipped with modern Western technology, including Leopard 2 tanks, CV-90 combat vehicles, and Archer artillery systems. This training is said to make the brigade one of the most capable units that will participate in future counteroffensives.

According to The Times, after completing their training in Sweden, the Ukrainian brigade returned to Ukraine this month (May) to be combat-ready. The British newspaper described it as one of the most powerful units in the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
...
However, it is known that Swedish officers assisted in training Ukrainian troops in the United Kingdom (Ukr) as part of Operation Interflex. Among other activities, Swedish instructors provided training (Ukr) to Ukrainian soldiers in the construction, placement, and overcoming of engineering obstacles."

Music to my ears

@MissConductUS, Trent Telenko has been making the same point on Twitter. There's very few standard trucks, retrieval units for tanks, etc. The stuff NATO takes from granted - for example, pallets, does not appear to exist for Russia.

So, thinking out loud here, if Russia does not secure air cover for their defense and their supply lines have doubled because of Ukraine's extended missile range, what does this mean for their soldiers? Is there a range at which point resupply becomes impossible?

You're correct about the pallets. Everything is packed into wooden crates, which must be loaded and unloaded by hand. I guess that's manageable when you have unlimited manpower, but not so good when you don't. Re truck availability, I've seen many reports and videos of the Russians commandeering civilian vans to transport supplies, like this one

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1579206991603322881?lang=en

These are smaller and less reliable than standard Russian army trucks, which they've lost a lot of.

The longer range missiles, when targeted at Russian logistics, will create a logistical desert about 150 miles wide. If a truck can travel 300 miles per day, it is now reduced to one round trip per day. Previously, with a 50 mile distance to the front, it could make three round trips per day. So this eliminates about two-thirds of their supply throughput. Supply won't become impossible, but it will support far fewer troops at the front, and there will be shortages of everything from food to petrol to ammo.

One countermeasure the Russians can try will be to establish smaller supply depots in the vulnerable zone. The problem with that is that they are easily located by observing the patterns of truck traffic, and can then be attacked with shorter range weapons like Himars.

What does it mean overall for their soldiers? Units will start stealing from each other and combat effectiveness, morale, and unit cohesion will fall precipitously. Russian commanders will have to pull troops back to shorten their supply lines or let them be destroyed in place. This is what happened in Kherson, where units from different chains of command started fighting each other as the situation became more desperate.

More information about the brigade trained in Sweden is coming out.

High-Tech Ukraine Assault Brigade Armed by Sweden Nearing Readiness - Existence of an ‘off-the-books’ Ukrainian formation kitted out with not just some of Sweden’s best heavy weapons, but in the world, looks to be a reality just in time for the counteroffensive.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-19-2023-0

Key Takeaways

• A Ukrainian official stated that Russian forces have concentrated most of their available reserves to the Bakhmut area and slowed Ukrainian counterattacks in the past 24 hours.
• Ukrainian counterattacks near Bakhmut have notably likely eliminated the threat of a Russian encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut and forced Russian troops to allocate scarce military resources to defend against a limited and localized offensive effort, as Ukrainian command likely intended.
• Russian forces conducted another series of drone and missile strikes across Ukraine on the night of May 18 to 19.
• President Joe Biden reportedly informed G7 leaders on May 19 that Washington will support a joint effort to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16s and other fourth generation aircraft.
• The Kremlin reportedly spent 3.1 trillion rubles (approximately $38.7 billion) in an undisclosed section of the Russian budget in 2023, likely to on fund the war and maintain occupied territories in Ukraine.
• Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin announced that he will run for reelection as a member of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s United Russia Party for the first time, prompting criticism from select Russian ultranationalists.
• A Ukrainian source reported that elements of two brigades of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (GRU) have deployed to border areas of Kursk Oblast in order to conduct counter-sabotage activities and provocations.
• Russian sources claimed that Russian troops continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove line.
• Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks in the Bakhmut area and slightly increased their tempo of ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Ukrainian officials stated that Russian forces are preparing defenses by flooding fields in Russian occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev claimed that the Russian military has recruited 117,400 contract personnel in volunteer formations since January 1, 2023.
• The Russian State Duma adopted the final reading of a draft law authorizing regional elections under martial law.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️ U.S. will train Ukrainian pilots on F-16 (https://kyivindependent.com/jake-sullivan-us-to-join-f-16-coalition/) jet fighters and cooperate with its allies to deliver the planes to Ukraine.
National security advisor Jake Sullivan made the announcement in a press briefing on May 20, confirming the U.S. participation in the “fighter jet coalition.”
The delivery timing has not been established as well, but the official said Ukraine wouldn't be able to use the planes for its upcoming counteroffensive.

⚡️ Zelensky arrives (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-arrives-in-japan-for-g7-summit/)* in Japan for G7 summit.*
“Japan. G7. Important meetings with partners and friends of Ukraine. Security and enhanced cooperation for our victory. Peace will become closer today,” Zelensky tweeted upon arriving.

⚡️Russia's special forces reportedly deployed near Ukraine's borders for ‘diversion activities (https://kyivindependent.com/russias-special-forces-reportedly-deployed-near-ukraines-borders-for-diversion-activities/).’
Elite Russian troops have arrived in Tyotkino, Kursk Oblast, to conduct “diversion” and “anti-diversion” activities at the Russo-Ukrainian border, the National Resistance Center of Ukraine reported on May 19.

⚡️Court seizes lucrative (https://kyivindependent.com/prosecutors-seize-land-from-pro-russian-oligarch-viktor-medvedchuks-wife/) land owned by pro-Russian oligarch’s wife.
A Kyiv court has ruled in favor of confiscating the land on the Dnipro River bank previously owned by Oksana Marchenko, wife of the pro-Russian oligarch Viktor Medvedchuk.
According to the prosecution, the land was privatized illegally and will now be returned to the state.

Belarus Weekly: Lukashenko makes brief public appearance (https://kyivindependent.com/belarus-weekly-lukashenko-makes-brief-public-appearance-following-rumors-of-his-poor-health/) following rumors of his poor health
Belarus authorities released photos and a video of Lukashenko to debunk rumors about his poor health.
Russian tactical nuclear weapons have yet to be deployed to Belarus, the country's permanent representative to the UN, Valentin Rybakov, claimed on May 16.

⚡️Zelensky arrives in Saudi Arabia, scheduled to meet crown prince (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-arrives-in-saudi-arabia/).

⚡️Georgia resumes flights with Russia, hundreds protest (https://kyivindependent.com/georgia-resumes-flights-with-russia/)in Tbilisi.
Hundreds protested in Tbilisi's streets and near the city's airport after the flights between Russia and Georgia resumed on May 19.

This Week in Ukraine Ep. 8 – How Ukrainian air defense denies Russia air superiority s

Inside the mission to evacuate civilians from Ukraine's front lines (): Interview with UK volunteer

⚡️G7 leaders agree to step up sanctions (https://kyivindependent.com/g7-leaders-agree-to-step-up-sanctions-against-russia/) against Russia.
The leaders of G7 countries on May 19 agreed to tighten sanctions against Russia and expand financial aid to Ukraine at the summit in Hiroshima, Japan, as declared in their joint statement. However, the joint statement provided little information about their next steps.

⚡️Financial Times: Wagner mercenaries procure equipment (https://kyivindependent.com/financial-times-wagner-pmc-procures-equipment-despite-western-sanctions/) despite Western sanctions.
The Russian Wagner mercenary company continues to use intermediaries to buy equipment in China for its activities in Ukraine and Africa.
This reveals the inability of Western sanctions to successfully cut supply streams from the group, Financial Times reports.

⚡️Ukraine's military confirms gaining initiative (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-military-confirms-gaining-initiative-near-bakhmut-makes-further-advances/) near Bakhmut, makes further advances up to 500m in some places.

⚡️US, Canada expand sanctions (https://kyivindependent.com/us-canada-expand-sanctions-against-russia/) against Russia.
The U.S. has added 71 companies supporting Russia’s economy to a trade blacklist as G7 leaders agreed to step up sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, Reuters reported on May 19.

⚡️CNN: US to support (https://kyivindependent.com/cnn-us-to-support-f-16-training-initiative-for-ukrainian-pilots/) F-16 training initiative for Ukrainian pilots.

U.S. will support a joint allies' initiative to train Ukrainian pilots on modern fighter jets, including F-16s, CNN reported, citing a senior U.S. official.
The training will most likely take place entirely in Europe but American personnel will participate in it alongside European partners.

⚡️Denmark, Portugal join (https://kyivindependent.com/denmark-portugal-join-fighter-jet-coalition/) 'fighter jet' coalition.
Denmark will train Ukrainian pilots on U.S.-built F-16 fighter jets and is open to discussions on their possible transfer to Ukraine, Acting Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen said on May 19.
Portugal has also agreed to train Ukrainian pilots and mechanics on Western-type combat aircraft, according to Ukraine's Foreign Ministry.

⚡️'Powerful' explosions reported (https://kyivindependent.com/untitled-43/) in Russian-occupied Mariupol.
Three "powerful explosions" occurred in the Russian-occupied city of Mariupol in the evening of May 19, the exiled Mariupol City Council reported on Telegram.

⚡️Hungary blocking (https://kyivindependent.com/hungary-blocking-eu-sanctions-over/) EU sanctions over jailers of Russian dissident Kara-Murza.
Hungary is now blocking EU sanctions on those deemed responsible for the jailing of Russian dissident Vladimir Kara-Murza a day after saying it would not support the 11th EU sanctions package against Russia over a bank dispute with Ukraine, EUobserver reported.

⚡️Russia puts (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-puts-hague-prosecutor-on-wanted-list/) International Criminal Court prosecutor on wanted list.

⚡️Politico: Biden to announce (https://kyivindependent.com/politico-biden-set-to-announce-375/) $375 million in military aid to Ukraine at G7 summit in Japan.

⚡️Kyiv air defenses shoot down (https://kyivindependent.com/air-defense-shoots-down/) all Russian drones launched overnight.

Slightly more troops again and 19 artillery down.

Where does Russia expect Ukraine’s counterattack? Overview of defensive lines (https://kyivindependent.com/where-does-russia-expect-ukraines-counterattack-overview-of-defensive-lines/)

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Despite the extension of the grain agreement, Russia still did not unblock the corridor, — Deputy Minister of Community Development, Territories and Infrastructure of Ukraine Yuriy Vaskov in an interview with "Voice of America".
Despite yesterday's statements, not a single vessel has been inspected either yesterday or today. That is, 62 vessels remain awaiting inspection.

🪖 The Russian occupiers have been strengthening defensive positions in and around the Zaporizhia NPP in recent weeks, but are also preparing to evacuate the NPP, — Reuters

❗️The Russian occupiers are trying to "legitimize" the deportation of residents of the occupied territories
According to Fedorov, those who disagree are offered to be sent to the basement for 30 days.

🇮🇹 Italy was hit by the biggest flood in 100 years, there are victims
The natural disaster took the lives of 13 people, leaving at least 20,000 people homeless.

G7 leaders have announced plans to limit trade in diamonds with Russia to cut revenue that funds Russia's war against Ukraine.

The German concern Volkswagen is leaving Russia.
The assets of Volkswagen Group Rus were bought by the Art-Finance company, which is part of Andrei Pavlovich's Avilon holding.

🇺🇸 The USA added 71 companies to the black list as part of the expansion of sanctions against Russia — 69 of them are Russian, one — is from Armenia, and one — from Kyrgyzstan.
The sanctions are directed against support for the Russian military and expand the scope of export control of oil and gas projects of the Russian Federation and Belarus

The Lithuanian Parliament proposed renaming Russia to Muscovien to abandon the "Great Russian narrative"

General Zaluzhnyi thanked General Milli for the Patriot shooting down the Kinzhal missiles
The Ukrainian and American generals also discussed the supply of weapons and ammunition, in particular, long-range projectiles.

Ukrainian tennis player Angelina Kalinina refused to shake hands with her Russian rival after winning the semifinals of the Rome Masters tournament in Italy, — CNN.

Minister of Foreign Affairs Kuleba stated that any mediation between Ukraine and the Russian Federation in matters of ending the war must comply with two principles: the restoration of the territorial integrity of Ukraine and the absence of freezing of the conflict. [clearly this is a fear now]

The Japanese government introduced additional sanctions against the Russian Federation, — Nikkei Asia.
Existing sanctions lists will be expanded. Japanese companies will be prohibited from providing architectural and engineering services to Russian clients. The assets of about 100 individuals and organizations will also be frozen.
Export restrictions are planned to be introduced against 80 Russian companies that are connected to the military.

Ukraine is asking its partners for F-16 fighter jets because of their versatility and large number in service in other countries, — writes Le Monde.
Analysts of the French publication note that the advantage of the F-16 for the Armed Forces lies primarily in the fact that they can be used as a tactical bomber, an attack aircraft, or a means of electronic warfare. They note that, while not a panacea, it is still effective in all these areas. Therefore, Kyiv prefers them to, for example, the French Mirage.
In addition, the F-16 is almost the most common fighter in the world. A total of 4,500 copies were produced, of which about 2,300 are in service, which is 16% of the world's combat arsenal. And twenty-five countries use it. This paves the way for faster delivery and general availability of aircraft.
However, despite the readiness of France, Great Britain and several other European countries to train Ukrainian pilots on the F-16, the problem of their supply is complicated by the large number of specialists needed to provide technical support and flight efficiency. Le Monde claims that a minimum of ten people are needed to maintain a fighter of this type. [exactly what you were saying, @MissConductUS ]

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Citizens of 5 countries support inviting Ukraine to NATO until the end of the war - Kantar.
In France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and the United States, there is public support for starting the process of Ukraine's accession to NATO even as the war continues.
**
❗️Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said that Russians lost 70,000 troops in the Bakhmut sector in killed and wounded.

Kyiv will consider allowing the transit of Russian ammonia through its territory for export, provided that the recently renewed "grain deal" is expanded to include more Ukrainian ports and a wider range of goods, a Ukrainian government source tells Reuters.

The head of Ukrainian intelligence, Budanov, said that the Russian occupiers had no other plan to capture Kyiv than a "successful" landing in Hostomel.
He added that Russia had been changing the date of the invasion for two weeks. Ukraine received the final information about the attack at 4 a.m. on February 24 at about 15:00 on February 23.

British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace has announced the possibility of a larger global conflict breaking out by the end of the decade.
He spoke about the risk of a wider conflict with Russia, as well as the threat posed by the "rise of China" and the spread of extremism in Africa

The Russian airline Azimut, which made its first direct flight from Moscow after a 4-year break, landed in Tbilisi. Passengers on board were treated to champagne in honor of this event.
The Georgian opposition and other opponents of the resumption of direct flights to Russia protested at the airport.

Lavrov's sanctioned daughter came to Georgia to attend a wedding, Georgian opposition TV channel Mtavari reported, citing sources.

Looks like Ben Wallace is being tipped as the next NATO SG, a good choice for it I think. Certainly better than Boris who we know is also keen 🥴

Analysts of the French publication(Le Monde) note that the advantage of the F-16 for the Armed Forces lies primarily in the fact that they can be used as a tactical bomber, an attack aircraft, or a means of electronic warfare.

I'm going to have to go off and look at ( literally ) original language Le Monde used because I'm genuinely not sure what they think the difference is between a tactical bomber and an attack aircraft..no difference at all in my book, and these days with the odd exception pretty much everything fighter sized is potentially multi-role.

FWIW Mirage 2000 and also Rafale have an EW capability (podded and/or internal).

Whatever their logic I think the technical detail Le Monde have tried to get into isn't really that relevant - the deciding factor here was always going to be which modernish multi-role fighter aircraft could be spared from inventories and shipped in the biggest numbers to Ukraine in the shortest time scale. As the article points out that alone points to the F-16, so once the US put any objections aside there were simply no other logical contenders..

The -16 being maintenance "heavy" by modern standards may just have been mentioned maybe a couple of times over the last year when this has come up..😉.... The "best" contender from that POV would probably be the Saab Grippen but if that aircraft was available at all it would be small numbers.

It seems that at last, Bakhmut itself has fallen. Russia reinforced it heavily and therés been incendaries.

Ukraine is still holding the retaken ground on the flanks.

The F-16 has a very long logistical tail, but the UAF won't likely get huge numbers of them. There's another advantage for the F-16. It mounts all US air to air and air to surface weapons, including Nato's best long range air to air missile, the AIM-120 AMRAAM, which has a range of up to 160km in the latest upgrade. The Russians have a similar long range air to air missile, which gives them a large tactical advantage.

The ability to attack Russian aircraft beyond visual range would make it much easier to launch the Storm Shadow missiles and JDAM-ER munitions at key targets from a closer range, which lowers the likelihood of interception. To really take advantage of it, they'd need help from an E3 Sentry AWACS aircraft, which can find targets for the AIM-120 from a 300-400 km distance, but I don't know if that will be considered anytime soon.

My strong feeling is that my friend's cat would be better than Boris. As would a mentally deficient goldfish.

😂😂😂

For what it's worth, Ben Wallace is highly respected and liked by the US military senior leadership, and I'm sure Llyod Austin is actively backing his bid.

I like the fact that he's a former cavalry guy, but hey ho, no one has asked for my opinion for some odd reason. 😃

I know this is a bit off-topic, but today is Armed Forces Day in the US. Today we celebrate soldiers, sailors, and airmen on active duty (as opposed to Veterans Day). I found this piece, written by a British Army veteran, that does a brilliant job of explaining the holiday and the deep historic ties between the US and British armed forces. I found it quite touching, so I thought I'd share it here.

Today is US Armed Forces Day. Without them, the world would be a much worse place - We should be thankful for the courage and dedication of US servicemen and women

RICHARD KEMP

20 May 2023 • 12:01pm

Today is Armed Forces Day in the United States, an opportunity for Americans to show appreciation for their fighting men and women. Any British reader who wonders what that’s got to do with us need only pay a visit to the US military cemetery at Madingley. There they will see row upon row of identical white crosses stretching over 30 acres of Cambridgeshire countryside, each marking the final resting place of an American soldier, sailor or airman killed fighting alongside their British comrades in the Second World War.

The British-American special relationship might occasionally fray at the edges, but never when it comes to the armed forces. We have fought side by side on battlefields around the world, starting with the Second Opium War in 1859 when, against his orders, a US Navy commodore gave covering fire to hard pressed British troops with the words: “blood is thicker than water”.

During the Second World War the bond between British and American commanders was so strong that they organized and deployed their forces as if they were the resources of a single nation. As Churchill said at the time: “This is a wonderful system. There never has been anything like it between two allies”.

In 1982, secret guarantees of American naval support as well as vital military intelligence were essential in enabling British forces to launch their invasion and successfully recapture the Falkland Islands.

When I and my comrades in the British 7th Armoured Brigade were rushed to Saudi Arabia in 1991 to help liberate Kuwait, we were initially dependent on life support from the US Marine Corps, who with characteristic generosity of spirit prioritised our troops even above their own.

When things go wrong, as they all too often do in war, then we see the true strength of our military friendship. After a US Air Force F-15 dropped a bomb that killed three of our soldiers in a tragic blue-on-blue in Afghanistan in 2007, the British company commander told the distraught American squadron commander:

“Nobody here blames your aircrew. Whatever happened, my men know how much they owe to your pilots. You have always been there for us, and your planes have saved many of my soldiers’ lives.”

Today, in the face of the worst war in Europe since 1945, Britain and the whole continent depends on the might of the US forces and the willingness of young American men and women to cross the Atlantic and stand on the line in Lithuania, Latvia, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Poland against potential expansion of Putin’s aggression. We don’t yet know the full extent of American military involvement in defending Ukraine but we do know that US support has been crucial in keeping Kyiv’s army in the fight.

Beyond Europe, wherever freedom is threatened, the men and women of the US armed forces often find themselves in the firing line, knowing they might be called on to pay the heaviest price. On Armed Forces Day we can be thankful for their courage and dedication. Without them the world would be a far more dangerous place.

Colonel Richard Kemp is a former British Army officer. He was an infantry battalion commander and saw active duty in Bosnia, Iraq and Afghanistan

Good man.

I had two breaking news feeds 20 minutes ago re: Ukraine special forces launching attacks behind the front lines, but cannot see them on any major press sites. Has anyone heard anything similar?

@MissConductUS I remember we had an American officer do a swap with one of the British ones for 6 months, it was a good way to exchange skills. I used to babysit for them and remember them being lovely.

@MissConductUS Happy Armed Forces Day!

Thanks for sharing the moving account of the close relationship between US and British Armed Forces. I wonder how it arose. Is it WW2? Very grateful for American military support and it is not just the UK.

Just a few quick notes re AMRAAM, F-16...

Beyond Visual Range (BVR) capability is very common and the Uk AF have it right now (Mig-29 with R-27 missile)...the problem is they are out BVR'd by the Russian Mig-31s with R-77 -they have more range.

AMRAAM should even the playing field though quite what range the Ukr AF will get out of them may depend on which block(s) of F-16s they get due to the exact type of radar fitted....

Those officer exchanges with the British Army are quite common and considered very good duty. They also look good for promotion boards. One attribute that is carefully considered in the selection process is interpersonal skills, as the one goal of the program is fostering close working relationships.

The exchanges happen before the soldiers are commissioned too. Some of the very best cadets at West Point are sent to Sandhurst for a term and vice versa. West Point also hosts an annual military skills competition with Sandhurst and many other national military academies, so there are more opportunities for relationship building. It started out just as a USA vs BA event, and It's still called the Sandhurst competition.

https://www.westpoint.edu/sandhurst

Thank you!

There were always good relations between the two militaries, but the specifics of the joint command structure and agreements to base US troops in the UK were formalized at a meeting in late 1941 that is still known by its code name, The Arcadia Conference

Combining both armies into one command structure made both more efficient and effective, so everyone benefited. Of course, it wouldn't have happened at all without a great deal of trust between the counties.