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Ukraine Invasion: Part 39

985 replies

MagicFox · 25/03/2023 22:44

38 filled up quick. Welcome all to 39 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

OP posts:
Thread gallery
267
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 07/05/2023 09:58

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-6-2023

Key Takeaways

  • Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov stated their intent on May 6 for Chechen β€œAkhmat” troops to replace Wagner Group forces in Bakhmut on May 10.
  • Prigozhin and Kadyrov likely aim to frame the Russian MoD and regular Russian troops as ineffective and set conditions to blame the MoD for any Russian setbacks in the Bakhmut area.
  • While the potential deployment of Akhmat troops to Bakhmut could increase Russian combat power to some degree, the claims made by Prigozhin and Kadyrov are greatly exaggerated.
  • The Russian MoD has yet to respond to Prigozhin and Kadyrov’s coordinated posturing about Bakhmut and may have been caught flatfooted by Prigozhin and Kadyrov’s statements.
  • At least one individual with claimed but unconfirmed affiliation to the Ukrainian government attempted to assassinate Russian β€œA Just Russia” State Duma party co-leader and prominent nationalist voice Zakhar Prilepin on May 6.
  • CNN reported that Russian electronic warfare (EW) jamming has limited the effectiveness of Ukrainian HIMARS strikes in recent months.
  • Russian forces continued limited offensive operations northeast of Kupyansk and in the Kreminna area.
  • Russian forces continued to make marginal gains within Bakhmut and Ukrainian forces likely conducted a successful limited counterattack southwest of Avdiivka.
  • Russian occupation officials claimed that Ukrainian forces targeted Crimea with Hrim-2 short-range ballistic missiles.
  • Ukrainian sources reported that Russian authorities are continuing various measures to forcibly mobilize residents of occupied areas of Ukraine.
  • Russian occupation officials continue to plan for mass forced evacuations in Zaporizhia Oblast.

Institute for the Study of War

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov stated their intent on May 6 for Chechen β€œAkhmat” troops to replace Wagner Group forces in Bakhmut on May 10. Prigozhin published a letter to Russian Minister of Defense...

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-6-2023

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 07/05/2023 10:02

It's been reported that migrants are increasingly looked down on due to Putin's "Russians are best" campaign and some of them may be given invitations they can't resist to join up.

A labour shortage + pressure on migrants is a bad combination for Russia's economic health.

1 in 10 IT workers leaving is a lot.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 39
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 07/05/2023 11:25

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚑️Washington Post: Wagner boss’ appeals (https://kyivindependent.com/washington-post-leaked-files-suggest-prigozhins-appeals-to-putin-fall-on-deaf-ears/) to Putin fall β€˜on deaf ears’.
The Russian military leadership has struggled to respond to Wagner Group boss Evgeny Prigozhin’s public insults and appealed to Russian dictator Vladimir Putin to intervene, leaked U.S. intelligence documents show, the Washington Post reported on May 5.

⚑️Minister: Moldova (https://kyivindependent.com/minister-moldova-to-join-eu-ban-on-some-ukrainian-grain-allowing-transit/) to join EU ban on some Ukrainian grains, allowing transit.

⚑️Ukraine to replace (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-to-replace-soviet-coat-of-arm-by-trident-on/) Soviet emblem on Motherland statue with Ukrainian trident.
The documentation process to dismantle the Soviet hammer and sickle on the iconic Motherland Monument in Kyiv is already underway, Culture Minister Oleksandr Tkachenko said on national television on May 6.

⚑️Russian attack (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attack-on-kherson-kills-6-sappers/) on Kherson Oblast kills 6 sappers on duty.
Six Ukrainian de-mining workers have been killed when their team was targeted by Russian shelling in Kherson Oblast on May 6.
The attack injured two other people, including a female paramedic, the State Emergency Service reported. (https://www.facebook.com/MNS.GOV.UA/posts/630748865759673)

⚑️Media: Suspect in murder attempt on Russian pro-war writer arrested (https://kyivindependent.com/state-media-suspect-arrested-after-russian-pro-war-writer-injured-in-car-explosion/).

⚑️Russian media: Pro-war writer (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-pro-war-writer-in-stable-state/) in stable state after car explosion.
Russian combatant and writer Zakhar Prilepin is in a medically induced coma after his operation, Russian state news agency TASS reported on May 6.

⚑️Anakonda-23 NATO military exercises (https://kyivindependent.com/nato-anakonda-23-military-drill-unrolls-in-poland/) begin in Poland.
Roughly 13,000 Polish servicemen are reportedly taking part in the joint exercise between Poland and NATO Allies, taking place in southeastern Poland, with military drills kicking off on May 6, Polskie Radio reported.
The military drill occurs once every three years and will focus on defense and deterrence measures in the Baltic Sea region. The exercise will last until May 26.

⚑️Russian state media reports (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-state-media-fire-near-gunpowder-storage-in-sverdlosk-region/) forest fire near gunpowder storage facility

⚑️Mayor: Traffic jam between (https://kyivindependent.com/mayor-traffic-jam-between-russian-occupied-melitopol-and-crimea-due-to-evacuation/) Russian-occupied Melitopol and Crimea due to evacuation.
A huge queue of cars and trucks, with some waiting for five hours, could be seen obstructing the Chonhar checkpoint between Russian-occupied Melitopol and Crimea, exiled Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov said on May 6.

⚑️Ukraine to ban (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-to-ban-imports/) imports from Moldova in retaliation against grain ban.

⚑️Podoliak: Wagner boss' threats (https://kyivindependent.com/podolyak-wagner-boss-threats-to-withdraw-from-bakhmut-sign-of-internal-war-in-russia/) to withdraw from Bakhmut sign of 'internal war' in Russia.
Mykhailo Podoliak, an advisor to the head of Ukraine's Presidential Office, said on May 6 that Wagner Group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin's recent behavior shows he doesn't have direct communication with the Kremlin.
"Prigozhin no longer receives budget funding, does not receive resources through the Ministry of Defense," Podoliak said.

⚑️Media: Drones shot down (https://kyivindependent.com/media-2/) over Crimea.
Drones were shot down over Russian-occupied Crimea overnight on May 7, the Baza online news outlet reported on Telegram.

⚑️Washington Post: Ukrainian officials fear (https://kyivindependent.com/washington-post-4/) upcoming counteroffensive may not live up to expectations.
Top Ukrainian officials fear that the much-anticipated upcoming Ukrainian offensive that is expected to turn the tide of the war may not live up to expectations, the Washington Post reported, citing interviews with senior Ukrainian officials.

⚑️IAEA: Situation at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant 'increasingly unpredictable and potentially dangerous (https://kyivindependent.com/iaea/)'.
The situation around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is becoming increasingly worrisome as shelling around the plant continues and Russia forcibly evacuate residents from the area, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said.

⚑️ (https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-9/)
Russia is forcibly evacuating residents of Enerhodar in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, located around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plantβ€”Europe's largestβ€” to the Russian-occupied cities of Prymorsk and Berdiansk, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported in its morning briefing.

⚑️ Romanian Defense Ministry: Russian fighter jet intercepted (https://kyivindependent.com/romanian-defense-ministry-russian-fighter-jet-intercepted-polish-aircraft-over-black-sea/) Polish aircraft over Black Sea.
A Russian Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jet intercepted an L410 Turbolet aircraft belonging to the Polish Border Guard around 60 kilometers east of Romanian airspace at approximately 1:20 p.m. on May 5, the Romanian National Defense Ministry said in a press statement.

⚑️ Prosecutors: Russia has killed (https://kyivindependent.com/prosecutors-russia-has-killed-at-least-480-children-injured-964-since-feb-24-2022/) at least 480 children, injured 964 since Feb. 24, 2022.

⚑️ Russian troops attack (https://kyivindependent.com/governor-russian-troops-attack-zaporizhzhia-oblast-75-times-over-past-day/) Zaporizhzhia Oblast 75 times over past day.

Notably more losses today.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 39
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 07/05/2023 11:35

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Not a simple UAV was shot down over Kryvyi Rih this morning, but a Cartographer
Once, it was a secret development created for the needs of the FSB, and now it is used in the war against Ukraine.
The UAV is equipped with a camera with 12 lenses and thermal imagers for the quick creation of terrain plans with high resolution.
This year, this is already the third known case of the destruction of such a UAV.

"Tonight, the Armed Forces of Lithuania delivered six more Land Rover SUVs and military dry rations to Ukraine. All this is necessary to support mobility," Lithuanian Defense Minister Arvydas AnuΕ‘auskas
wrote

Switzerland handed over 20 demining machines to Ukraine.

Bakhmut, for the second night in a row, the enemy covered the city with phosphorous ammunition

The Russians are forcibly removing children from the occupied regions of the Zaporizhzhia region.
Many women and children were taken to non-working recreation centers in Kyrylivka and Berdyansk. Children were also taken away from their parents, people in the villages had to hide them.

The head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak, had a telephone conversation with the US President's National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan.
Yermak and Sullivan discussed the current situation at the front, the preparation of units of the Defense Forces for liberation from the occupiers of Ukrainian territories, and the urgent needs of the Ukrainian army.

Bakhmut. This is what the city looks like now.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 39
Ukraine Invasion: Part 39
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 07/05/2023 11:41

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Ilya and Katya got married at Azovstal. They went through captivity together and today returned to their homeland. [lovely pic of them]

❗️The occupying head of Sevastopol, Mikhail Razvozhayev, said that more than 10 drones attacked Crimea at night. According to him, "the attack was repelled, there is no damage."

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov said that he had already signed a letter to Putin stating that his Akhmat soldiers were ready to move to Bakhmut, "to take back the city and cleanse it of NATO and Ukrainian satanists.

Budanov has given a new interview, briefly about the main points:

β–ͺ️ Russia does not have the potential to launch another attempt at a serious offensive somewhere in Ukraine.

β–ͺοΈΠžΠΊΡƒΠΏΠ°Π½Ρ‚ΠΈ have reduced their missile stockpile to nothing. But they are trying to accumulate a certain stockpile of missiles to thwart a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

β–ͺ️Russian propaganda works well, they can even present the fall of a missile on the Kremlin as a victory.

β–ͺ️The level of Wagner's men is much higher than that of the regular Russian army.

β–ͺ️There are forces in Russia that want to eliminate Prigozhin.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 08/05/2023 10:34

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-7-2023

Key Takeaways

  • Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov may have compelled the Russian theater commander in Ukraine, Army General Valery Gerasimov, to resume artillery ammunition distribution to Wagner forces in Bakhmut despite Gerasimov’s desired de-prioritization of that effort.
  • Kadyrov’s threats to transfer his forces to Bakhmut may have blackmailed the Russian military command into allocating ammunition to Wagner mercenaries.
  • Kadyrov likely supported Wagner’s blackmail efforts against the Russian military command to reestablish his position within the circle of power of the Kremlin.
  • Gerasimov's apparent need to negotiate with subordinate commanders and those commanders’ ability to force his hand suggests that chain of command problems are significantly impacting the Russian military's ability to conduct coherent theater-wide operations.
  • These events raise questions about Russia’s ability to coordinate a coherent theater-wide defensive campaign.
  • Prigozhin’s and Kadyrov’s ability to significantly influence Russian military command decisions relies on Putin’s willingness to appease them and his reliance on their forces – both of which will likely degrade after further blackmail efforts.
  • Prigozhin’s continued fight to complete the capture of Bakhmut contradicts his consistent narrative that capturing Bakhmut lacks strategic value.
  • Russian forces continued limited offensive operations northeast of Kupyansk and south of Kreminna.
  • Russian forces made some territorial gains in Bakhmut as of May 7 and continued limited offensive operations on the Avdiivka-Donetsk front.
  • Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces launched up to 23 drones at Crimea on the night of May 6 to 7.
  • Russian federal subjects are continuing to recruit and form regional armed formations and volunteer battalions.
  • Russian occupation authorities continue to plan and carry out forced evacuations from Zaporizhia Oblast.

worth repeating: Gerasimov's apparent need to negotiate with subordinate commanders and those commanders’ ability to force his hand suggests that chain of command problems are significantly impacting the Russian military's ability to conduct coherent theater-wide operations.

[Gerasimov is rather dependent on Wagner and Kadyrov, apparently; Prigozhin seems to be able to flex his muscles to quite some effect. If he does succeed in completely occupying Bakhmut then the political capital he builds might outweigh the strategic value by some way, I suspect. Good if the Ru forces elsewhere are ammunition -starved as a consequence though]

Institute for the Study of War

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov may have compelled the Russian theater commander in Ukraine, Army General Valery Gerasimov, to resume artillery ammunition distribution to the Wagner forces in Bakhmut despite

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-7-2023

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 08/05/2023 11:00

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚑️ Prigozhin claims (https://kyivindependent.com/prigozhin-claims-moscow-promised-wagner-group-as-much-ammunition-and-weapons-as-needed/) Moscow promised Wagner Group 'as much ammunition and weapons as needed.'
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Russian private military company Wagner Group, claimed on May 7 that Russia's Defense Ministry has promised to provide "as much ammunition and weapons as needed" to continue the Russian offensive against Bakhmut.

⚑️FSB claims it prevented (https://kyivindependent.com/fsb-claims-it-prevented-a-covert-drone-strike-on-a-military-airfield/) Ukrainian drone strike on military airfield.

Wagner a β€˜shadow of what it once was’: Russia security expert Mark Galeotti on the rage of mercenary boss Prigozhin & (https://kyivindependent.com/the-end-of-the-line-for-wagner-russia-security-expert-on-the-desperate-rage-of-mercenary-boss-prigozhin/)

⚑️Ukrainian intelligence (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-intelligence-warns-of-victory-day-provocations-by-russia/) warns of Victory Day provocations by Russia.
Moscow might stage false-flag attacks against Russian and Belarusian populations around May 9, Ukraine's General Intelligence Directorate chief Andrii Usov, said at a briefing on May 7.

⚑️Turkey rejects US proposal (https://kyivindependent.com/turkey-rejects-us-proposal/) to give Ukraine S-400 system.
Turkey has refused the U.S.'s suggestion to give Ukraine its advanced S-400 air defense system it bought from Russia, Turkish news outlet Lodos Haber reported on May 7.

⚑️Zaluzhnyi meets (https://kyivindependent.com/zaluzhnyi-meets-german-general-expresses-hope-for-fighter-aircraft/) German general, expresses hope for fighter aircraft.
Ukraine's most senior commander, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, met his visiting German counterpart, Carsten Breuer in the past week, briefing him on Ukraine's military situation.

⚑️Frontex suspends patrolling (https://kyivindependent.com/https-kyivindependent-com-ghost-editor-post-6457d9153c388f5f4ef957f8/) Black Sea over incident with Russian fighter jet.
The European Border and Coast Guard Agency, known as Frontex, temporarily suspended its patrol mission over the Black Sea following the incident with the Russian fighter jet on May 5.

⚑️Czech president says Ukraine shouldn't rush (kyivindependent.com/czech-president-says-ukraine-shouldnt-rush-counteroffensive/)counteroffensive.
Czech President Petr Pavel said in his interview with the Guardian that he had warned the leadership of Ukraine against a rushed counteroffensive.
He added that while Ukrainian top military commanders β€œstill have a feeling that they do not have everything to start successfully an operation,” a poorly planned counteroffensive could turn into a disaster.

⚑️Blogger jailed for liking a caricature (https://kyivindependent.com/blogger-jailed-for-liking-a-caricature-depicting-belarusian-dictator-dies-in-prison/)depicting** Belarusian dictator dies in prison.

Russia launches another large-scale strike against Ukraine, injuring at least 5 in Kyiv (https://kyivindependent.com/russias-attack/)

⚑️ISW questions Russia's ability to coordinate a cohesive defense campaign (https://kyivindependent.com/isw-12/) across front line.
Russia's military leadership appears to be increasingly delegating responsibilities for different sectors of the front in Ukraine to various Russian commanders while the power of the theater commander continues to wane, the Institute for the Study of War said in its latest update.

⚑️Ukraine downs 35 Russian drones (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-downs-35-russian-drones/).
⚑️Air Force: Russia launched (https://kyivindependent.com/air-force-russia-launched-8-kh-22-missiles-at-odesa-oblast-overnight/) 8 Kh-22 missiles at Odesa Oblast overnight.

⚑️General Staff: Russian occupation authorities conducting "evacuation" (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-occupation-authorities-conducting-evacuation-from-tokmak/) from Tokmak.
Russian occupation authorities in Zaporizhzhia Oblast are moving their officials, local collaborators as well as children with education workers from Tokmak to Berdiansk deeper into the occupied territories, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported on May 8.
Moscow-installed proxies threaten the parents to hold back their children in school in case of refusal to "evacuate" them, the General Staff said.

⚑️Zelensky signs decree (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-signs-decree-making-may-9-europe-day-proposes-to-celebrate-victory-day-on-may-8/) making May 9 Europe Day, proposes to celebrate Victory Day on May 8.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has submitted a draft law to the Ukrainian parliament proposing that May 8 be the Day of Remembrance and Victory over Nazism in the Second World War.

Less active day yesterday

Ukraine Invasion: Part 39
MagicFox · 08/05/2023 12:09

The EU sanctions China for supporting Russia and China promises a "firm" response

OP posts:
MagicFox · 08/05/2023 12:10

I think they're just suggested sanctions at mo but let's see

OP posts:
Fladdermus · 08/05/2023 15:42

MagicFox · 08/05/2023 12:10

I think they're just suggested sanctions at mo but let's see

It looks like it's not specifically China, more any country/firm/individual helping Russia to circumnavigate existing sanctions. The Chinese companies being mentioned are already being sanctioned by America.

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2023/05/08/eu-preparing-sanctions-against-countries-that-help-russia-evade-penalties-potentially-hitt

EU preparing sanctions against countries that help Russia evade penalties, potentially hitting China

EU preparing sanctions for countries that help Russia evade penalties

After 10 rounds of sanctions against Russia, the EU is turning its focus on enforcement and circumvention. #EuropeNews

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2023/05/08/eu-preparing-sanctions-against-countries-that-help-russia-evade-penalties-potentially-hitt

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 08/05/2023 15:57

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate Budanov assured that Russia does not have the potential to attempt a large-scale offensive anywhere but is capable of conducting severe defensive operations, which is "a problem that Ukraine will have to face."

The Ukrainian military is already receiving radars from Israel to warn of a missile threat produced by RADA Electronic Industries, β€” Israel Defense.
In total, 16 such devices are to enter service with the Armed Forces. In Israel, they are used to detect and identify dangerous objects in the sky, and are connected to the warning system. In the event of a threat, residents instantly receive a message about the need to go to the shelter.

The head of the International Olympic Committee, Thomas Bach, said that the organization seeks to return Russians and Belarusians to international competitions

EU redirects road funds to €2bn munitions plan for Ukraine, β€” The Telegraph

Ukrainian is developing a self-propelled robot-machine gun with remote control, which is being tested on a training ground

The occupiers hit warehouses in Odesa with X-22 missiles, said Serhiy Bratchuk, representative of the Odesa Regional Military Administration.

Following the Ukrainian flags, the Berlin Administrative Court also approved the Russian flags on May 8 and 9 – the police filed a complaint to the Higher Administrative Court against this decision. [fucking hell]

New EU sanctions package could hit Russia's shadow fleet of oil trading tankers, β€” Financial Times.
The project of the European Commission provides for a ban on entering European ports for ships that hide the country of origin of the cargo without valid reasons.
The document also proposes to expand the list of goods prohibited for export to Russia and to allow EU countries to limit the sale of certain goods to companies and countries that help the aggressor to circumvent sanctions.
It also provides for the easing of restrictions on the sale of assets by Western companies that cooperate with entities under sanctions.
Other EU proposals include sanctions against Iranian companies involved in the production and supply of drones to Russia.

The occupiers have stopped delivering fuel to gas stations in the Zaporizhzhia region in anticipation of the offensive of the Armed Forces, the General Staff reports

Unrecognized Transnistria has asked Russia to increase the number of so-called Russian "peacekeepers", citing increased security risks, β€” Klitschko

⚑️At night over Kyiv, 35 out of 35 drones were shot down, it was the largest attack on the capital during the war, β€” Klitschko

The Russian Federation has again blocked the inspection of vessels of grain initiatives, reports the Ministry of Development of Communities, Territories, and Infrastructure of Ukraine.

As a result of shelling on the night of May 8 in Odesa, warehouses with humanitarian aid from the Red Cross of Ukraine burned down, β€” the organization's press service.
The fire completely destroyed the humanitarian aid that was in the warehouses. The organization's work in the region has been suspended.
[this is from the Red Cross itself, so clearly any Ru claims that it was military gear is false. Not entirely wise to keep so much in one place, one feels]

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 08/05/2023 16:15

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Commander of the Eastern Group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Syrskyi visited the combat areas yesterday and met with the commanders of combat units, the press service of the Ground Forces reports.

Russian propagandist Zakhar Prilepin said that he was driving the car at the time of the explosion, and the explosion occurred to his right under the other front wheel.
According to him, both his legs were broken. He also said that he had dropped his daughter off from the car 5 minutes before the explosion, and the driver who died had been his "guardian angel" for 8 years and had saved his life several times.

πŸ—£οΈDefense Ministry's DIU representative Yusov believes that the statements of the head of the PMC Wagner Yevgeniy Prigozhin about the Ukrainian offensive are, in particular, part of the preparation of Russian elites for life after defeat in the war with Ukraine.

πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΉπŸ‡· An investigation by a group of European publications found that Russia is trying to conduct an influence operation in Europe to complicate relations between TΓΌrkiye and the EU and weaken support for Ukraine.
The documents obtained by the journalists show that the Russian special services actively took up the topic after anti-Turkish protests in Sweden and Denmark amid Ankara's blocking of these countries' accession to NATO. Moscow saw this as an additional opportunity to split the allies

πŸ‡°πŸ‡¬πŸ‡°πŸ‡ΏπŸ‡ΉπŸ‡―πŸ‡¦πŸ‡² The presidents of Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan, as well as the prime minister of Armenia, have agreed to attend the traditional May 9 parade in Moscow.

Kyiv says Russia has effectively stopped the "grain initiative"
Russia refuses to register ships for entry and conduct inspections, which has effectively blocked the grain deal, the Ministry of Communities, Territories and Infrastructure of Ukraine has said.

πŸ‡²πŸ‡© Chisinau questioned the right of the head of the representative office of unrecognized Transnistria to appeal to Russia to increase the number of "peacekeepers" in the region.

PerkingFaintly · 08/05/2023 18:13

Just seen that about the Red Cross warehouse in Odessa, at least one person killed.

Keeping MNer HillsMakeYouStrong and all her contacts in my thoughts. I know Odessa is one of the places she's been getting aid to.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 09/05/2023 10:03

In 2022’s Victory Day Parade, Russia had a large fleet of T-90M and T-14 Armata Tanks. In today’s 2023 Victory Day Parade, Russia had one T-34 Tank

Ukraine Invasion: Part 39
Igotjelly · 09/05/2023 10:12

Well the parade and Putler’s speech was one hell of a damp squib wasn’t it.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 09/05/2023 10:25

The parade in Moscow didn't have any modern tanks, infantry fighting vehicles or aviation. It was one of the smallest in Russian history, taking less than 10 minutes.

There was one T-34 tank that took part in WWII. No Iskanders, Armata tanks, aviation. The walking part of the parade mainly consisted of cadets and students of military universities, not military staff.

Russian MoD hasn't published any information about the parade's participants, unlike in previous years.

https://twitter.com/gerashchenkoen/status/1655865740258320387?s=61&t=NaIdJJ_hpeHJ7BCXblc3CMg

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 09/05/2023 10:56

One T-34? One?!

hah!

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-8-2023

Key Takeaways

  • Russian forces conducted another large-scale missile and drone strike against Ukraine on the night of May 7 to 8.
  • Senior Ukrainian officials indicated that Ukrainian forces may be preparing to conduct counteroffensive operations in May or June.
  • Russian-occupied Transnistria called on Russia to increase its peacekeepers in the region likely to support the Kremlin’s efforts to destabilize Moldova.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin is attempting to use the Victory Day parade to show Russia’s continued influence in Central Asia.
  • Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.
  • Russian forces have made marginal advances within Bakhmut as of May 8 amid reports of intensified Wagner Group forces offensive operations and continued ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
  • Russian forces continued defensive operations in southern Ukraine.
  • Russian authorities have reportedly escalated their campaign targeting ethnic minorities for contract service in the Russian military.
  • Russian occupation authorities continued to forcibly evacuate civilians in rear areas in Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts.

Interesting Uk Int Update; water is a huge issue for Crimea too.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 39
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 09/05/2023 11:06

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚑️Washington Post: UK preparing to send (https://kyivindependent.com/washington-post-uk-preparing-to-send-long-range-missiles-to-ukraine/) long-range missiles to Ukraine.
The U.K. appears ready to send Ukraine long-range missiles that can hit targets up to 300 kilometers away, the Washington Post reported on May 9, citing a procurement notice by the U.K.-led International Fund for Ukraine.

⚑️Update: Death toll in Russia's May 3 attack on Kherson rises to 24 (https://kyivindependent.com/update-death-toll-in-russias-may-3-attack-on-kherson-rises-to-24/). [A 54 year old woman died of her injuries]

⚑️UK Defense Ministry: (https://kyivindependent.com/uk-defense-ministry-russia-recruiting-central-asian-labor-migrants-for-ukraine-war/)Central
The Russian military has been recruiting migrant workers from Central Asia to fight in Ukraine, the U.K. Defense Ministry reported on May 8, adding that it often happens in mosques and immigration offices.
The move is part of the Russian Defense Ministry's efforts to fulfill its goal of recruiting 400,000 people for the war against Ukraine. "The authorities are almost certainly seeking to delay any new overt mandatory mobilization for as long as possible to minimize domestic dissent."

⚑️(https://kyivindependent.com/european-commission-president-to-visit-ukraine-meet-with-zelensky/),
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will visit Kyiv on May 9 and meet with President Volodymyr Zelensky marking Europe Day, the Commission's press service reported.

Taras Tarasiuk: How the Russian Orthodox Church’s covert actions against Ukraine have failed (https://kyivindependent.com/taras-tarasiuk-how-the-russian-orthodox-churchs-covert-actions-against-ukraine-have-failed/)

⚑️Opendatabot: More companies registered than closed (https://kyivindependent.com/opendatabot-more-companies-registered-than-closed-in-ukraine-during-full-scale-war/) in Ukraine during full-scale war.
Ukrainians registered 5.6 times more new companies than they closed over a year of Russia’s full-scale war, according to the monitoring service Opendatabot. From April 1 last year to the same day in 2023, over 200,000 private entrepreneurs and more than 32 000 companies were reportedly registered in the country.

⚑️City Council: Russian forces begin forced (https://kyivindependent.com/mayor-russian-occupying-forces-begin-mobilization-in-mariupol/)* mobilization (https://kyivindependent.com/mayor-russian-occupying-forces-begin-mobilization-in-mariupol/)* in occupied Mariupol.
Russian occupying forces in Mariupol have started mobilizing residents, the exiled Mariupol City Council reported on May 8.
According to the city council, this news was provided by residents still in the city. [as if that city had not suffered enough]

Ukrainian grain exports, and the mayhem they cause in Europe | This Week In Ukraine Ep. 6. (https://kyivindependent.com/this-week-in-ukraine-ep-6/)

⚑️Polish Defense Minister: 10 MiG-29 fighter jets (https://kyivindependent.com/polish-defense-minister-ten-fighter-jets-ukraine/)* already provided to Ukraine.*

⚑️Bloomberg: EU hoping to prevent Russian oil transfers (https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-eu-hoping-to-prevent-russian-oil-transfers/) at sea.

⚑️Russian troops suspend operation (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-proxies-in-occupied-zaporizhzhia-suspend-reactors/)* of occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.*
Russian occupation authorities are suspending the operation of reactors at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Russian state media TASS wrote on May 8.

⚑️Poll: 67% of Ukrainians against any compromises with Russia; 82% say Putin new Hitler (https://kyivindependent.com/over-67-of-ukrainians-say-no-compromises-with-russia-over-80-say-putin-new-hitler-poll-shows/).

⚑️Ukrainian journalists win Pulitzer (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-journalist-at-associated-press-win-pulitzer/)for work in besieged Mariupol.
Ukrainian journalists Mstyslav Chernov, Evgeniy Maloletka, and Vasilisa Stepanenko have won the Pulitzer Prize for Public Service for their reporting from Mariupol, then under Russian siege, the Associated Press announced on May 8.

⚑️ UN: At least 23,606 civilian casualties (https://kyivindependent.com/un-at-least-23-606-civilian-casualties-in-ukraine-since-the-start-of-russias-full-scale-invasion/) in Ukraine since start of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
In every update, the agency reports that the actual number of casualties is likely considerably higher since the information from places with ongoing hostilities is delayed.

⚑️Ukraine downs 23 Russian cruise missiles (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-downs-2/).* *
Russian forces launched a total of 25 Kalibr and X-101/X-555 cruise missiles overnight on May 9, the Ukrainian Air Force said in its morning updat

⚑️General Staff: Russian occupation forces in Zaporizhzhia Oblast move looted property to Crimea. (https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-russian-occupation-forces-in-zaporizhzhia-oblast-move-looted-property-to-crimea/)

⚑️ Putin claims (https://kyivindependent.com/putin-delivers-speech-at-victory-day-parade-in-moscow/) 'real war' unleashed against Russia during Victory Day speech. [away with the fucking drunk fairies, that sad, scary little man]

⚑️Russian attacks hit 10 Ukrainian regions, injure 17 civilians (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-hit-10-ukrainian-regions-injure-17-civilians-over-past-day/) over past day.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 39
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 09/05/2023 11:06

Sigh. sorry for the italics

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 09/05/2023 11:21

UNITED24 Media Telegram

The European Commission has prepared a draft of the 11th package of sanctions against Russia, β€” the head of the press service of the EC, Eric Mamer.
The new sanctions are aimed at strengthening existing restrictions and combating their circumvention.

In Ukraine, eight more assault companies of the UAVs were formed, β€” Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov.
Pickups, shock copters, and FPV drones were handed over to the operatorsβ€”all Ukrainian-made drones. "We continue to remove blockers so that Ukraine can produce thousands of drones every month, which the Defense Forces now need," Fedorov said.

The self-proclaimed president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, also flew to Putin's parade.

The US removes some "sensitive technology" from Abrams tanks before sending them to Ukraine, β€” USA Today.
In particular, we are talking about the guidance system of the 120-mm gun.
Unlike the MQ-9 Reaper drone, which sank in the Black Sea after an incident with Russian fighter jets, the tank can be captured almost intact, making it an ideal research target.
This approach is used by the USA not only concerning Ukraine, but also when sending equipment to other countries. The Pentagon leaves the most advanced technologies for the American army.

❗️The Higher Administrative Court of Berlin renewed the ban on the display of Russian flags during May 8 and 9 after a police complaint against the decision of the same court

General Staff: Russians are deporting representatives of the occupation authorities and their families from Skadovsk and other captured cities of the Kherson region. Along with a significant part of the apparatus, documentation, office equipment and other property were taken away.

❗️The USA will provide Ukraine with another $1.2 billion in long-term military aid to further strengthen its air defense, β€” AP.

At the "victory parade" in Moscow, only one tank β€” the museum T-34 β€” was present [it does look sad and lonely]

The flight program of the Victory Parade on Red Square in Moscow and in a number of other Russian cities has been cancelled. The official reason is weather conditions

Evening Khortytsia, Zaporizhzhia

A bird feeder made by Ukrainian defenders from a metal ammunition box in eastern Ukraine
πŸ“Έ: 100 separate brigade of Territorial Defense

Ukraine Invasion: Part 39
Ukraine Invasion: Part 39
Ukraine Invasion: Part 39
notimagain · 09/05/2023 11:36

The flight program of the Victory Parade on Red Square in Moscow and in a number of other Russian cities has been cancelled. The official reason is weather conditions

Out of interest the Moscow area forecast from early AM today onwards was visibility greater than 10 km and no significant cloud below 5000 feet.....and the actual weather matched the forecast.

Certainly a lot lot better than the weather in London on Saturday where a limited flypast took place.

notimagain · 09/05/2023 11:45

ETA: Just seen some of the Red Square coverage - bad weather?...they're having a laugh.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 09/05/2023 11:51

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Russian agents preparing terrorist attacks against the Ukrainian Armed Forces command and SBU special forces detained in Zaporizhzhia
One of the group members was a former military officer and the other was a personal driver of a local high-ranking official. The criminals were preparing terrorist attacks against the command of the Defense Forces and SBU officers stationed in the region.

Russian invaders have started mobilization in the temporarily occupied Mariupol - city council.
According to the mayor of the city Boychenko, the enemy plans to conscript men until August.

The reality of Russia

On Europe Day, the flag of Ukraine was raised next to the EU flags at the European Commission.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 39
Ukraine Invasion: Part 39
Ukraine Invasion: Part 39