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Ukraine Invasion: Part 39

985 replies

MagicFox · 25/03/2023 22:44

38 filled up quick. Welcome all to 39 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

OP posts:
Thread gallery
267
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 09/05/2023 13:26

Tim White
AT TWMCLtd
Β·
1h

Activists in #Poland make things a little awkward for #Russia's ambassador. This display has been created near the mausoleum of Soviet soldiers, where a Russian delegation plans to lay flowers today.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 39
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 09/05/2023 13:55

Now it's really getting interesting, assuming

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 09/05/2023 14:00

gah.

For those who don't have Twitter, this clip is (if translated right - @Mb76 ?) then Prigozhin is starting to openly aim at Putin.

"Prigozhin refers to Putin as a β€˜happy grandpa’ and ventures a guess that there's a possibility this β€˜happy grandpa’ might be a β€˜complete a*shole’,"

He has powerful allies in the Kremlin, but his recent attempt to blackmail Gerasimov won't have gone down well. Either he's edging closer to making an open move against the Establishment or he's absolutely desperate.

https://twitter.com/NatalkaKyiv/status/1655916277565730816

https://twitter.com/NatalkaKyiv/status/1655916277565730816

blueshoes · 09/05/2023 14:44

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 09/05/2023 14:00

gah.

For those who don't have Twitter, this clip is (if translated right - @Mb76 ?) then Prigozhin is starting to openly aim at Putin.

"Prigozhin refers to Putin as a β€˜happy grandpa’ and ventures a guess that there's a possibility this β€˜happy grandpa’ might be a β€˜complete a*shole’,"

He has powerful allies in the Kremlin, but his recent attempt to blackmail Gerasimov won't have gone down well. Either he's edging closer to making an open move against the Establishment or he's absolutely desperate.

https://twitter.com/NatalkaKyiv/status/1655916277565730816

Ducks, it does look like Progozhin is unravelling or maybe he has strong allies who do not support Putin.

One of your updates below mentioned this:

πŸ—£οΈDefense Ministry's DIU representative Yusov believes that the statements of the head of the PMC Wagner Yevgeniy Prigozhin about the Ukrainian offensive are, in particular, part of the preparation of Russian elites for life after defeat in the war with Ukraine.

When I read it, I wasn't sure what it meant. Maybe they are completely unconnected.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 09/05/2023 15:33

it seems like there are a number of threads floating loose in the air at the moment. Putin's military has unravelled and the infighting seems to be massive. Prigozhin is the most high profile to openly hint at criticism of Putin though as far as I'm aware and if he does that, Putin's control is weakening.

Which way those loose threads are going to be ravelled in the future and the shape of the final weave is going to be interesting - back under Putin's control, loose and disorganised or under a new dictator. Anything like reasonable governance seems impossible unfortunately.

blueshoes · 09/05/2023 16:48

Ducks, agreed. Just worrying who there will be left to negotiate with in Russia if Putin is no longer in control. A volatile situation.

Fladdermus · 09/05/2023 16:57

I guess it doesn't help the military meltdown when your oponent has become so adept at taking your misiles down as to render them useless.

Putin launched massive 'victory day' attack on Kyiv. 25 missiles fired. 23 intercepted by Ukrainian air defences. Nobody hurt. People just pissed off at having their sleep disturbed. I wonder how much money the Russians wasted on those missiles.

https://marcusoscarsson.se/just-nu-stort-fiasko-for-putin/?fbclid=IwAR2b_b9xqRaO0ZKbyjJ2fR2xWEiKHwGVeOsAdr61pRD5HiSm-4Y6S96AouQ

RYSSLAND: Stort fiasko fΓΆr Putin

Floppattack pΓ₯ Segerdagen…

https://marcusoscarsson.se/just-nu-stort-fiasko-for-putin?fbclid=IwAR2b_b9xqRaO0ZKbyjJ2fR2xWEiKHwGVeOsAdr61pRD5HiSm-4Y6S96AouQ

minsmum · 09/05/2023 17:27

https://twitter.com/yurapalyanytsia/status/1655880946111873024 tv was hacked in St Petersburg during the parade and the Ukrainian national anthem was played

https://twitter.com/yurapalyanytsia/status/1655880946111873024

Surplus2requirements · 09/05/2023 18:00

minsmum · 09/05/2023 17:27

https://twitter.com/yurapalyanytsia/status/1655880946111873024 tv was hacked in St Petersburg during the parade and the Ukrainian national anthem was played

@minsmum Subvervision πŸ˜ƒ

minsmum · 09/05/2023 18:16

Sorry Ukrainian music not the National anthem

Mb76 · 09/05/2023 19:13

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 09/05/2023 14:00

gah.

For those who don't have Twitter, this clip is (if translated right - @Mb76 ?) then Prigozhin is starting to openly aim at Putin.

"Prigozhin refers to Putin as a β€˜happy grandpa’ and ventures a guess that there's a possibility this β€˜happy grandpa’ might be a β€˜complete a*shole’,"

He has powerful allies in the Kremlin, but his recent attempt to blackmail Gerasimov won't have gone down well. Either he's edging closer to making an open move against the Establishment or he's absolutely desperate.

https://twitter.com/NatalkaKyiv/status/1655916277565730816

The translation is accurate but it’s only implying that the β€œhappy grandpa” is Putin. And there is no context as the first sentence starts mid speech.

In all honesty if Putin falls, the thought of Prigozhin replacing him terrifies me

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 09/05/2023 19:58

Or Patrushev. Also a terrifying one.

Greenshake · 09/05/2023 21:09

I take great comfort from knowing that all these scenarios will have been wargamed.

L1ttledrummergirl · 09/05/2023 23:36

Star for the hackers.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 10/05/2023 10:01

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-9-2023

Key Takeaways

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin declined to use his Victory Day address to make any significant rhetorical changes and reiterated existing narratives, preparing for a protracted war and framing Russia as successfully resisting the entire West.
  • Putin additionally attempted to use Victory Day celebrations to rally Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) partners, many of which have sought to reduce their reliance on the Kremlin since February 2022.
  • Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin likely seized the Victory Day holiday as an opportunity to mock Putin and question his judgment in one of his most direct challenges of Putin to date.
  • Prigozhin announced that Wagner forces will not withdraw from Bakhmut by the previously stated deadline of May 10 despite the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) failing to resolve the claimed β€œshell hunger.” [there's a surprise]
  • Prigozhin’s failure to abide by the withdrawal threat he made on May 5 indicates that he is cognizant of his dependence on the Russian MoD.
  • Prigozhin continued to blame high casualties and the slow pace of advance in Bakhmut on other Russian irregular formations to frame Wagner as the only competent force operating in the area.
  • Russian forces conducted another large-scale series of missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of May 8 to 9.
  • Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
  • Russian forces continued to make marginal gains within Bakhmut and continued limited offensive operations along the Avdiivka–Donetsk front.
  • Russian forces targeted Ukrainian positions west of Hulyaipole and in Kherson Oblast.
  • Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov opened a new military camp for the β€œSever Akhmat” Special Purpose Regiment in the Republic of Chechnya.
  • Russian occupation officials continue to deport civilians deeper into Russian-occupied territory.

[It's notable the ISW put a lot of emphasis on Wagner - It would be useful if they considered other areas and commanders too; the battle line is what, 800km?]

Ukraine Invasion: Part 39
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 10/05/2023 10:12

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚑️UN chief: Ukraine peace talks 'impossible' (https://kyivindependent.com/un-chief-ukraine-peace-talks-impossible-now/) now.
Peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are currently impossible as "both parties are convinced they can win," UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told Spanish newspaper El Pais.

⚑️High Anti-Corruption Court confiscates (https://kyivindependent.com/high-anti-corruption-court-confiscates-top-kherson-collaborators-assets/) top Kherson collaborator's assets.
Ukraine's High Anti-Corruption Court has confiscated part of the assets belonging to Volodymyr Saldo, a Ukrainian politician who defected to Russia and was placed in charge of the occupied part of southern Kherson Oblast, Transparency International Ukraine reported on May 9.

Paul Grod: A cry to bring Russia to justice for its genocidal war in Ukraine (https://kyivindependent.com/paul-grod-a-cry-to-bring-russia-to-justice-for-its-genocidal-war-in-ukraine/)

Investigative Stories from Ukraine: Companies of Russian oligarch Fridman allegedly support Russian war effort in Ukraine (https://kyivindependent.com/investigative-stories-from-ukraine-companies-of-russian-oligarch-fridman-allegedly-support-russian-war-effort-in-ukraine/)

⚑️Prigozhin says (https://kyivindependent.com/prigozhin-says-wagner-would-be-deemed-traitors-if-they-withdraw-from-bakhmut/) Wagner forces would be deemed β€˜traitors’ if they withdrew from Bakhmut [oh yeah, his lips are moving again]

⚑️EU chief, Zelensky meet in Kyiv (https://kyivindependent.com/eu-chief-zelensky-meet-in-kyiv-on-europe-day/) on Europe Day, discussing the EU ammunition supply plan, an upcoming package of sanctions against Russia, and the bloc's ban on Ukrainian food exports plus financial support for Kyiv and the country's progress on its path to EU membership, a day after Zelensky signed a decree on celebrating Europe Day in Ukraine.

⚑️Pentagon announces (https://kyivindependent.com/pentagon-announces-new-1-2-billion-security-assistance-package-for-ukraine/) new $1.2 billion security assistance package for Ukraine.

⚑️SBU: Woman linked (https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-woman-providing-intel-on/) to MH17 case sentenced to 12 years in prison.
The woman was a "personal informant" of the Russian military intelligence officer Sergey Dubinsky, who was involved in the downing of flight MH-17 in July 2014, the SBU wrote.

⚑️President's office: 37 countries hold summit (https://kyivindependent.com/core-group-online-summit/) on tribunal for Russian crimes.
The 37 member states of the Core Group have held an online summit to discuss establishing a tribunal for Russian crimes of aggression committed in Ukraine, the President's Office reported on May 9.
In his speech, President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated that a tribunal is needed because the International Criminal Court (ICC) does not have jurisdiction over Russian crimes of aggression committed in Ukraine.

⚑️AFP journalist (https://kyivindependent.com/french-afp-journalist-killed-by-grad-rockets-in-chasiv-yar/) killed by Grad rockets in Chasiv Yar.
Arman Soldin, a video journalist for Agence France-Presse, was killed when Russia launched Grad rockets at Chasiv Yar on May 9, the news agency reported. [he sounded an absolutely lovely man, kind and humorous]

⚑️Russian brigade flees Bakhmut (https://kyivindependent.com/russias-brigade-flees-bakhmut/).
Ukraine's Third Assault Brigade confirmed on May 9 that the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces has fled Bakhmut. The news, prior to the confirmation, was originally announced by Wagner mercenary group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin.

⚑️Media: French parliament approves (https://kyivindependent.com/french-national-assembly-approves-motion-to-list-wagner-as-terrorist-organization/) motion to list Wagner as terrorist organization.

How Russia has attempted to erase Ukrainian language, culture throughout centuries (https://kyivindependent.com/how-russia-has-attempted-to-erase-ukrainian-language-culture-throughout-centuries/)
Russia has not only killed tens of thousands of Ukrainians and ruined much of the country's infrastructure since the start of the full-scale invasion.
It aimed at destroying the core of Ukrainian identity β€” language, and culture β€” in the territories it occupied.
Watch here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=12&v=vDXC5Nnvj-4&embeds_euri=https%3A%2F%2Fkyivindependent.com%2F&source_ve_path=Mjg2NjY&feature=emb_logo)
Read more here (https://kyivindependent.com/how-russia-has-attempted-to-erase-ukrainian-language-culture-throughout-centuries/)

⚑️US continues to train "a couple thousand" Ukrainian soldiers in Germany (https://kyivindependent.com/us-continues-to-train-ukrainian-soldiers-in-germany/).

⚑️US says (https://kyivindependent.com/us-says-russia-blocking/) Russia blocking ships from loading grain in Ukraine's ports.

⚑️Politico: US will not follow (https://kyivindependent.com/untitled-39/) UK in sending Ukraine long-range missiles.

⚑️Russia continues (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-continues-to-de/) to demolish homes destroyed by its months-long siege of Mariupol.
Over the course of Russia's siege of Ukraine's southern city of Mariupol, over 2,000 residential buildings were heavily damaged, with around half of them now completely destroyed, the exiled Mariupol City Council said on Telegram on May 9.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 39
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 10/05/2023 10:31

UNITED24 Media Telegram

The Russian occupiers are taking away documentation, computer equipment and other looted property from Enerhodar β€”shops and pharmacies are closed in the city, gas stations and ATMs have been emptied, said the lawful mayor Dmytro Orlov.

πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί The European Parliament voted to extend duty-free trade with Ukraine for another year to support the Ukrainian economy in wartime conditions

The grain corridor is working againβ€”the inspection of grain mills has been resumed, β€” NTV citing sources in the Ministry of Defense of TΓΌrkiye
On May 7, Russia again blocked the registration and technical inspection of grain trucks.
In the territorial waters of TΓΌrkiye, 90 vessels are awaiting inspection, of which 62 will be loaded.

Europe should not be frightened by power games in Moscow. Let's remain steadfast in our support for Ukraine, β€” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz

❗️The USA announced a new package of military aid to Ukraine worth 1.2 billion dollars
It will include additional air defense equipment, missiles and radars for them, equipment for integrating Western air defense launchers into the Ukrainian system, and 155-mm shells, according to the Pentagon website.
Assistance is provided within the framework of the USAI program. This means that the US orders and buys equipment and weapons from manufacturers for the specified amount, so Ukraine will only receive some of it afterward.
The Pentagon said what is included in the new aid package for Ukraine.
▫️Additional air defense systems and ammunition for them;
▫️Equipment for integration of Western launchers, radars, and missiles with Ukrainian air defense systems;
▫️Anti-drone ammunition;
▫️155-mm artillery shells;
▫️Commercial satellite surveying services;
▫️Funds for education and maintenance.

The largest German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall plans to produce tanks, anti-aircraft systems and ammunition in Ukraine in the future, β€” General Director Armin Papperger

Russian propagandists have a new instruction β€” to dispel reports that Western equipment is powerless in roadlessness at the front, so the counteroffensive allegedly fails.
They publish such photos, having previously pasted white crosses on them (they say, the Armed Forces of Ukraine).
Only in the first photo is the Marder BMP crossing the Kunduz River in Afghanistan in May 2010, and in the second β€” an M2 Bradley somewhere in Iraq in the 2000s. Both images are easy to find on Google

Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said Ukraine should be ready to join the European Union in two years.
According to him, this year Ukraine expects to receive a political decision from the EU on the start of accession negotiations.

Xi Jinping has not greeted Putin on May 9
There is no mention of greetings from Xi to Putin on the website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the national media of China.

Ukraine has all the necessary resources, including weapons, to return the territories captured since February 24, β€” US Secretary of State Blinken

πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly expects the success of Ukraine's planned counteroffensive, but warns that it may not live up to inflated expectations: This is not a Hollywood movie, we must be realistic

πŸ’ͺ Instructor courses for Ukrainian soldiers have ended in Lithuania: they lasted 4 weeks.

France will provide Ukraine with a new batch of VAB armored personnel carriers, β€” Oryx.

The British government is going to recognize PMC "Wagner" as a terrorist organization in the coming weeks, β€” The Times.
Granting Wagner PMC the appropriate status will lead to criminal liability in Great Britain for membership of the organization, attendance at events organized by it, expressing support, or wearing its symbols.
In addition, PMC "Wagner" may be subjected to financial sanctions, and members of the organization may be prohibited from filing lawsuits against journalists and human rights defenders in British courts.

In connection with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Japan wants to open the first NATO office in Asia
As Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi stated in an interview with CNN, against the background of events in Eastern Europe, which also concern the Pacific region, the issue of cooperation with NATO is becoming increasingly urgent. [China ofc calls this american expansionism]

The Russians plan to "evacuate" more than 3,000 workers from the ZNPP, β€” Energoatom
The company reports that at least 3,100 people intend to evacuate the occupiers. In particular, it is primarily about the 2,700 employees of the station who entered into a contract with the so-called JSC "Operating Organization of the Zaporizhzhia NPP" or another Rosatom enterprise. Energoatom emphasized that this threatens the safe operation of Zaporizhzhia NPP.
"In this way, the Russian occupiers prove the impossibility of ensuring the operation of the Zaporizhzhia NPP, as there is now a catastrophic lack of qualified personnel," the report says.
The company reported that they are working on forming the necessary number of specialists capable of ensuring the safe operation of the station after its de-occupation. [note that they are, indeed, talking about de-occupation]

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 10/05/2023 10:45

Live: Ukraine Telegram

This year, Russian Ambassador to Poland Sergey Andreev also failed to lay flowers at the cemetery of Soviet soldiers in Warsaw. Activists did not let him through to the sound of the air raid alarm. Opposite the cemetery, they installed symbolic graves of Ukrainians killed by Russians and high-rise buildings destroyed by missile strikes.

❗️Ukraine's Foreign Ministry condemned the visit of the leaders of Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan to Moscow for the May 9 parade. Putin called their participation in the event an immoral, unfriendly step and a disregard for the Ukrainian people. [I think there's been a significant mistranslation here somewhere :D ]

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that all NATO allies agree with Ukraine's accession, but the question of when it will happen remains open.
According to Stoltenberg, the organization is currently helping the Armed Forces of Ukraine to become compatible with NATO forces, reform and modernize defense and security institutions, etc.

Prigozhin's report about the escape of the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces from Bakhmut and the "500 corpses" of Russians left there is true.
The destroyed Russian equipment deserves special attention. This includes several trains with enemy ammunition, mortars and more than one armored personnel carrier.

NSDC Secretary Oleksiy Danilov said that the decision on the timing and direction of the counteroffensive would be made in the office of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, but that the final plans have not yet been approved.

The largest group of the European Parliament called for inviting Ukraine to join NATO at the Vilnius Summit
The European People's Party (EPP) emphasizes that previous security decisions for Ukraine - from the Budapest Memorandum to the conclusions of the Bucharest NATO Summit - did not prevent a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and that its permanent stay in the "gray zone" will only encourage Russia to repeat its aggression in the future

Pentagon spokesman Patrick Ryder confirms that the Ukrainian Defense Forces shot down a Russian hypersonic Kinzhal missile from a Patriot air defense system

British military intelligence suggests that Russia could have shown more armored vehicles at the May 9 parade in Moscow, but the Kremlin feared criticism at home

❗️In the Voronezh region of Russia, two drones with explosives attacked a military training ground. The governor said that one drone crashed and the other was shot down. Rosmedia reported 14 injured soldiers. There are allegedly no fatalities.

In the Estonian city of Narva, a poster with the words "Putin war criminal" was hung on the wall of the castle. It is very clearly visible from the other side in the Russian city of Ivangorod.
According to Delfi, the Russians were outraged by this. Representatives of the Russian Federation met with Estonian border guards and demanded that the poster be removed, but they were refused.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 39
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 10/05/2023 12:07

Perhaps not unconnected, @notimagain, there are multiple reports that Ukraine has regained a considerable chunk of Bakhmut.

MissConductUS · 10/05/2023 15:48

Good article from the Guardian. There was also this in the Telegraph that I completely agree with.

Russia’s losses are worse than anyone thinks - Estimates of the Kremlin’s military casualties may be far too low given Kyiv’s use of new precision weapons

9 May 2023 β€’ 6:00pm

It was a curious sight. Russia’s annual Victory Day parade, a display of military might and a celebration of its role in defeating Nazi Germany, could only muster a solitary T-34. The serried ranks of tanks seen in recent years were absent; many of them will be lying burned out in the Donbas. Putin’s speech, meanwhile, was desperate, even delusional. He claimed civilisation was β€œat a decisive turning point”; that a β€œreal war has been unleashed against Russia”; that the West seeks the β€œdisintegration and destruction” of Russia. The only person driving towards that goal is Putin himself.

His army is in a shambolic condition, with multiple reports indicating that troops are fighting without adequate body armour. Young men are conscripted and thrown into the meat grinder of the Donbas, backed by antiquated tanks. They face forces combining modern Western equipment with significant new tactical innovations. And they are being slaughtered.

Over the last century, battlefield casualties for Western forces have seen a steady decline. Modern medical techniques, antibiotics and military developments have all played their role. But assumptions based on this experience may not work when estimating the losses suffered by Putin’s poorly-equipped conscripts.

Ukrainian reports of Russian casualties resemble something from the fronts of the First World War, with hundreds killed and injured each day. Western analysts have tended to be more conservative in their estimates.

But this conflict is not like those we have seen previously. Kyiv’s forces are innovating new ways of conducting warfare, with drones at their heart. Tech savvy young men and women are repurposing and re-engineering for the battlefield off-the-shelf and inexpensive equipment developed for peace.

This is a game changing moment. Russia’s armed forces are centred around the use of artillery; various sources list Moscow’s expenditure of shells as multiples of Ukraine’s. And yet even pessimistic assessments show a casualty ratio skewed heavily in Ukraine’s favour, despite being theoretically outgunned.

The key to this appears to be innovation. What is unique to the Ukraine conflict is the use of both drones as striking weapons and as platforms for observation. Some analysts suggest that using the standard ratios of deaths/wounded will be very far from reflecting the lethality of this new mode of warfare. Some have gone so far as to suggest that the vast majority of artillery rounds and mortar shells fired by Kyiv’s forces will be watched by drone, allowing for – in artillery terms, at least – pinpoint accuracy.

And the pace of change is set to continue. The Ukrainians have trained 10,000 drone operators, who will add to Kyiv’s capability to observe and guide indirect fire. This type of attack was called precision targeting when I first went to Afghanistan in 2008. In those days we would have a huge Nimrod aircraft with 20 or so operators on board, flying at 20,000ft with a single camera. There would be five or six of us on the ground monitoring the live feed; if the right target was identified we called in a precision air strike from a fighter jet. We conducted a few of these strikes per week. Later, we moved on to Reaper drones with hellfire missiles. But these strikes were rare; what Kyiv is doing is new.

Fighting a battle for national survival, every tank or enemy combatant is a fair target. the Ukrainians are developing techniques not only focused on precision attack but also on directing artillery fire. Battlefield footage may look like the First World War – trenches, shells and casualties abound – but we have moved on from rare balloon spotters sending messages to guns. Now, there are hundreds of tiny drones with amazingly capable cameras, giving detailed pictures and highly accurate meta data back to the guns. This is a type of warfare which few in Nato have ever experienced; when Russian casualty rates as estimated by the West appear to be half what the Ukrainians are claiming, it is surely possible that the Ukrainians are right.

This is backed up by the scramble in Russia to find soldiers. Both sides might lack ammunition, but the Kremlin appears to be running out of soldiers to fire that ammunition. The long-term costs for Russia are likely to be devastating.

Russia’s losses are worse than anyone thinks

Estimates of the Kremlin’s military casualties may be far too low given Kyiv’s use of new precision weapons

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/05/09/russias-losses-are-worse-than-anyone-thinks

MissConductUS · 10/05/2023 20:36

Re the UAF advances around Bahkmut, the Russian's lack of unity of command seems to have played a major part. If allied units don't even talk to each other, they will lose to a better led adversary. This has been a strategic weakness from day one. The Russians invaded Ukraine with four separate groups of forces with no one in overall command, so they were of no use to each other and competed for the same resources. It's even worse now, with everyone from naval infantry to Putin's personal army (the Rosguardia, the national guard), Wagner, DPR, Chechins, etc. all fighting with and stealing from each other.

This fragmentation will hasten their defeat when seriously challenged.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1656256203432013824

On another topic, one factor that may be impacting the timeline for the Ukrainian counter-offensive is the arrival of about 100 Leopard 1A5 tanks from Denmark and Germany, expected by late May or early June. As this article explains, these tanks would not be in the spearhead forces but would be very useful in the reserves.

Ukraine’s Leopard 1 Tanks Could Arrive Just In Time to Help the Ukrainian National Guard Mop Up Russian Stragglers

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1656256203432013824

Chatillon · 10/05/2023 21:11

But this conflict is not like those we have seen previously. Kyiv’s forces are innovating new ways of conducting warfare, with drones at their heart. Tech savvy young men and women are repurposing and re-engineering for the battlefield off-the-shelf and inexpensive equipment developed for peace.

This is a game changing moment. Russia’s armed forces are centred around the use of artillery; various sources list Moscow’s expenditure of shells as multiples of Ukraine’s. And yet even pessimistic assessments show a casualty ratio skewed heavily in Ukraine’s favour, despite being theoretically outgunned.

The key to this appears to be innovation.

Russians need to be angry. Yes for Putin taking them into war, but more so for the lost opportunities over several generations. Russia has the richest natural resources in the world. It has an intelligent population. All these things could have been harnessed for good. Russia could have been a vibrant part of Europe. It could have had its own Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Tesla et al.

It could have had all of these things. But under Putin Russia took a path that was to suppress meritocracy. For that decision all the blame lies with Putin.

What a waste of a country. What a waste of all those young men and women. If I was Russian I should be raging. The truth is I cannot because I am living in ignorance.

Glory to Ukraine. God bless America. Long live the King. Vive La France.

Preview: Vladimir Putin reveals what he admires about America

Russian President Vladimir Putin is among those heading to the United Nations to address the General Assembly Monday, for the first time in more than a decad...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6426OZFzcvM