Ukraine Invasion: Part 39

[MagicFox]

38 filled up quick. Welcome all to 39 🇺🇦

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Ukraine is starting to build a critical infrastructure protection system by the best world practices and the current requirements of European legislation, according to the State Service for Special Communications of Ukraine
Ukraine cooperates with the US Agency for Cybersecurity and Protection of Critical Infrastructure CISA.
The State Service for Special Communications, as an authorized body to protect the critical infrastructure of Ukraine, is now developing the necessary regulatory and legal framework. Ukraine has created sectoral lists of critical infrastructure facilities. A resolution on the approval of the procedure for maintaining a register of critical infrastructure should be adopted soon. The emergence of the registry will be an essential step in the coordination of infrastructure protection.

There is no need to constantly put us at the negotiating table, give us enough weapons, — Secretary of the NSDC Oleksiy Danilov about the calls to Moscow and Kyiv to start peace talks

Russian journalists were not issued visas to cover the work of the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Sergei Lavrov, at the UN events in New York, — Russian officials promise retaliatory measures.
Lavrov himself commented on the situation with the phrase: "We will not forget, we will not forgive."
On March 29, the Russian FSB detained WSJ journalist Evan Gershkovich in Yekaterinburg — the Moscow court arrested him until May 29

Ukraine will be inspired by the experience of Arlington National Cemetery in the USA to create a military memorial cemetery in Kyiv, – Minister of Veterans Affairs Yuliia Laputina

Ukrainian pilots arrived at the base of the US Air Force in Arizona to evaluate their skills in the context of potential flights on F-16 fighter jets, – "Voice of America". ....Hampton added that a Ukrainian pilot flew an average of 40-50 hours a year before the war. Not participating in combat, he flew the F-16 for 200-300 hours. According to the pilot, the most difficult thing is not to fly but to shoot.
"I'm sure I could jump into a MiG-29, lift it off the ground, and bring it back. Controlling all the weapons systems is completely different," says Hampton.

Former member of the Swedish Parliament Caroline Nordengrip signed a contract and joined the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Ukraine cannot refuse to protect Bakhmut, which our brave soldiers have been protecting for a long time, — President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in an interview with Al Arabiya.
The city's capture could open a bridgehead for Russia to attack Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
Zelenskyy noted that he could not call the situation good, but Ukrainian soldiers were fighting.

❗️The type of ammunition that the Armed Forces will receive for the Leopard 1 and M-55S will determine the effectiveness in combat, — Forbes
Forbes journalists assume that the Armed Forces may receive modern German DM63 ammunition, which these tanks used to fire when serving Western armies.
“This can be enough to penetrate the frontal armor of an older Russian T-72 tank. A DM63 round can significantly damage the newer T-72B3 without being destroyed,” explains Forbes.

In Europe, military spending has increased sharply, – SIPRI
In 2022, military spending in Europe increased by 13% more than in other regions of the world, and the total amount of military spending reached a record amount of 2.24 trillion dollars. This is stated in a new Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) report.
Ukraine's military expenses in 2022 due to the war increased by 640% – up to $44 billion, or 34% of GDP. Such a sharp growth became a historical record.
It is believed that the war cost Russia more than it thought. Russia's military spending in 2022, according to SIPRI, increased by 9.2% to about $86.4 billion and accounted for 4.1% of the country's GDP (third place in the world after the United States and China). As of the end of last year, Russia's spending on "national defense" exceeded budget plans by 34%.
After Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, several European countries dramatically increased their military budgets – Finland (+36%), Lithuania (+27%), Sweden (+12%), and Poland (+11%).

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Polish Foreign Ministry criticizes German statements about "slightly ajar door to NATO" for Ukraine
Deputy Foreign Minister of Poland Piotr Wawrzyk believes that if Germany had not blocked Ukraine's accession to NATO, the current war would not have happened.

Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur claims that the biggest obstacle to the launch of the Ukrainian counteroffensive is the rainy weather, and it will take at least a month before active hostilities begin.

EU Diplomacy Chief Josep Borrell called unacceptable the statements of Chinese Ambassador to France Lu Shaye on the status of the former Soviet Union.
"The EU can only assume that these statements are not official Chinese policy," he added.

The head of the Defense Ministry's Main Intelligence Directorate, Kyrylo Budanov, said that Russian elites have been considering options for changing the government for more than a year, but "cannot come to any conclusion."
According to him, a "palace" rebellion against Vladimir Putin may take place in Russia, but the general public will not see it.
Budanov believes that Russia's military and political elites are already discussing the candidacy of Putin's successor and have several options. However, the head of the GRU refused to name specific names.

The Institute for the Study of War believes that all surviving Russian airborne troops are already engaged in offensive or defensive operations in Ukraine, and that Russia needs to deploy significant reserves for an offensive. The occupiers' troops are exhausted and disorganized.

Budanov said that Ukraine is approaching a landmark battle in its modern history, and it will begin in the spring, as previously predicted.
"When it will start is a secret. But everyone understands that we are approaching it," he added.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said that China respects the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of the former Soviet republics. She made her statement after the resonant words of the Chinese ambassador to France. [ oh aye, that so? Why haven't they condemned the invasion then?]

Tucker Carlson is leaving Fox. Excellent news but I really hope that he doesn't go somewhere he can cause more damage.

It's a reaction to the settlement of the defamation suit by Dominion voting systems. He might find a job at a more marginal news outlet like Newsmax, but I doubt it. One thing that came out at the trial is that privately Carlson called Trump an idiot and said that they rigged election nonsense was rubbish, so now his old Fox viewers won't follow him anywhere.

It's telling that he didn't get to announce his own departure last Friday. Fox was probably concerned about what he'd say.

Does anyone remember this time last year when we were all worrying about Russia’s 9th May Victory day? 😂😂 this year they’ve basically cancelled it, wish I could go back in time and reassure myself.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putin-cancels-victory-day-parades-as-ukraine-invasion-continues-to-unravel/

One thing that came out at the trial is that privately Carlson called Trump an idiot and said that they rigged election nonsense was rubbish, so now his old Fox viewers won't follow him anywhere.

I wonder if Carlson's comment will make any of the die-hard "the election was stolen" people think, or if tribalism > all.

https://twitter.com/UKUN_NewYork/status/1650556049575882820 speech from Britain's representative at the U.N.

https://twitter.com/marlowc2324/status/1650546969645924352 even better speech from the permanent representative for Ecuador. So good Lavrov walked out

Fantastic from Ecuador! Weird to see Iran and Syria there

https://twitter.com/AlMissionUN/status/1650589300386328579 in speech from Albania

The Ecuador representative did not mince words. 👏👏👏

He demolished Russia's 'effective multilateralism' argument, buried Lavrov and then wiped the floor with him. I know I am listening to the translator but the words were like a machine gun (bad violence analogy, but the only one Russia understands).

Those are strong speeches. I doubt Russia is listening though.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-24-2023

Key Takeaways

• Russian milbloggers speculated that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered additional military command changes on April 20.
• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin has launched an information operation to undermine the credibility of Russian state-affiliated private military groups (PMCs).
• Kremlin authorities proposed equalizing pay between mobilized personnel and volunteers, likely in an attempt to incentivize military service.
• Saratov Oblast Investigative Committee detained a former Wagner Group commander who told Russian human rights organization Gulagu.net about Wagner’s murder of children and other civilians in Bakhmut.
• Ukrainian forces likely conducted a naval drone attack against the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s (BSF) base in Sevastopol in the early morning of April 24.
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov arrived in New York City on April 24 to chair a session of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).
• The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on April 24 that Russian ships are ferrying Iranian ammunition across the Caspian Sea to resupply Russian troops fighting in Ukraine.
• Krasnoyarsk Krai deputy Konstantin Senchenko resigned on April 24 following the resignation of Krasnoyarsk Krai Governor Aleksandr Uss on April 20.
• Ukrainian forces have made marginal gains south of Kreminna as of April 24 and continue to target Russian logistics nodes in rear areas of Luhansk Oblast.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks in and around Bakhmut and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City frontline.
• Some Russian sources denied claims from other Russian milbloggers that Ukrainian forces established enduring positions in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast.
• The Kremlin continues crypto-mobilization efforts likely in an attempt to avoid a second wave of formal mobilization.
• The Wagner Group may be attempting to fill law enforcement roles in occupied territories.

Extra:
Wagner’s cooperation with local investigative authorities indicates that Wagner and Prigozhin are able to influence certain local authorities and security organs. This anecdote further suggests that Wagner is deeply invested in encouraging participation in atrocities in order to build social cohesion among the group and indicates that Wagner uses the threat of retribution to discourage dissenting voices that expose Prigozhin to discredit the wider group

Agree, Russia won't listen. Not even sure China would.

The audience is presumably the Global South and other less Western-aligned nations. I assumed Ecuador would be in the fence-sitting category so it is reassuring they came out so strongly in favour of the UN principles and rule of law.

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin has launched an information operation to undermine the credibility of Russian state-affiliated private military groups (PMCs).

Wut?

The Kremlin has started to create its own Private Military Companies; tends to do it covertly by saying they actually work for another company. Gazprom for instance has its own PMC now.

Seems that Prigozhin is trying to diss them.

It's concerning that this is the 2nd time that Prigozhin has brought effective pressure to bear on 2 different local governments to get his own way.

He's far more powerful, quietly, than people want to acknowledge imo.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️China says it respects sovereignty (https://kyivindependent.com/china-says-it-respects-sovereignty-of-ex-soviet-states-after-controversial-comment-from-its-ambassador-to-france/) of ex-Soviet states after controversial comment from its ambassador to France.

Official: Defense ministers of Turkey, Russia, Syria, and Iran to meet (https://kyivindependent.com/official-defense-ministers-of-turkey-russia-syria-and-iran-to-meet-in-moscow/)in** Moscow. (... Turkiya, in bed with those three?)

⚡️EU and Ukraine to recognize (https://kyivindependent.com/eu-and-ukraine-to-recognize-enforce-each-others-court-decisions/), enforce each other’s court decisions.
The EU Council has agreed to establish treaty relations with Ukraine under the so-called Judgments Convention, which obliges contracting states to recognize and enforce judgments rendered in civil or commercial cases in other participating states.

This Week in Ukraine Ep. 4 – Russia's strategy of evil: 80,000 war crimes in Ukraine ()

⚡️Hungarian lawmaker (https://kyivindependent.com/hungarian-lawmaker-says-ukraine-should-get-russias-approval-to-join-nato/) says Ukraine should get Russia's 'approval' to join NATO.

Olga Moloko: Civil society plays critical role in helping Ukrainians survive Russia’s war (https://kyivindependent.com/civil-society-plays-critical-role-in-helping-ukrainians-survive-russias-war/)

⚡️Media: Wagner commander (https://kyivindependent.com/media-wagner-commander-who-confessed-to-murders-in-bakhmut-arrested-in-russia/) who confessed to war crimes detained, threatened in Russia.
Former Wagner commander Azamat Uldarov, who publicly confessed to committing war crimes in Ukraine, was detained and threatened in Saratov Oblast, Russian independent media Meduza reported on April 24.

⚡️Zelensky meets (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-meets-with-estonian-prime-minister-in-zhytomyr-oblast/) with Estonian Prime Minister in Zhytomyr Oblast.

⚡️Mayor: High concentrations (https://kyivindependent.com/mayor-melitopol-concentration-russian-forces/) of Russian troops near occupied Melitopol.
According to Fedorov, one of the concentrations of Russian troops is in Kyrylivka, an urban type settlement located south of Melitopol on the coast of the Azov Sea, "where the enemy has seized a huge number of recreation centers, hotels, etc."

⚡️Former Polish PM: Ending (https://kyivindependent.com/former-polish-pm-russias-war-against-ukraine-ending-in-compromise-would-lead-to-new-dangers/) war in Ukraine with compromises would lead to 'new dangers.’

⚡️US Official: Russian (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-can-launch-offensives-when-weather-improves/) forces could launch new offensive operations once weather improves.
Russia can launch offensive operations in several areas once the weather improves, White House National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby said in an interview with Voice of America on April 24.

⚡️National Resistance (https://kyivindependent.com/partisans-blow-up-russian-checkpoint-in-occupied-kherson-oblast/) Center: Partisans destroy Russian checkpoint in occupied Kherson Oblast.
Ukrainian partisans blew up a Russian checkpoint in occupied Kherson Oblast, the Ukrainian military's National Resistance Center reported on April 24.

⚡️Russia tries to conceal its dwindling nuclear stockpile

⚡️Borrell: Ammunition to Ukraine 'has to grow quicker (https://kyivindependent.com/bor/) in the next days'.
"More than 1,000 missiles have been provided to Ukraine and a number of ammunition, which is still growing, but it has to grow quicker in the next days," European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said at a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg.

⚡️Politico: Czech president says (https://kyivindependent.com/politico/) China benefitting from Russia's war.
China cannot be trusted to mediate any peace deal between Russia and Ukraine as Beijing is benefitting from the war, Czech President Petr Pavel told Politico in an interview.

⚡️Financial Times: EU, Japan resist (https://kyivindependent.com/financial-times-eu-japan-resist-us-plan-to-ban-all-g7-exports-to-russia/)US plan to ban all G7 exports to Russia.

⚡️EU provides Ukraine with another 1.5 billion euros (https://kyivindependent.com/eu-provides-ukraine-with-another-1-5-billion-euros-in-macro-financial-assistance/) in macro-financial assistance.

⚡️Military intelligence: 87 Ukrainians evacuated (https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-87-ukrainians-evacuated-from-war-torn-sudan/) from war-torn Sudan.

31 vehicles and 14 artillery systems gone. Indication that something is happening.

Thank you for that explanation, @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar .

So when one baron gets too big, promote other barons and hope they fight it out amongst themselves, leaving the Emperor still seated comfortably at the top.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Ukrainian intelligence planned massive strikes on Moscow on the anniversary of the full-scale invasion on February 24 but abandoned it at the request of the US, – The Washington Post

German hospitals will hand over 200 hospital beds for wounded soldiers to Ukraine, — Bild.
"Many wounded Ukrainian soldiers are forced to lie on the floor. Even mattresses or medical equipment that has not passed inspection will be useful in Ukraine," said Linda May, head of the organization, to the hospital's management.

Russia has been stockpiling long-range missiles for a month in order to disrupt the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the future, — Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate Budanov

A UNESCO delegation came to Irpin, and Estonian Prime Minister Kaya Kallas visited Bucha.

Global military spending reached $2.24 trillion in 2022
The top three spending countries are the US, China and Russia. They accounted for 56% of the world volume. In Europe, the growth of military spending amounted to 13%.

NATO plans to hold a meeting of defense ministers of member countries on May 10 in Brussels, the press service of the Alliance reports.

The European Union will build relations with other countries depending on their attitude towards Russia and China, – EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is causing enormous suffering and destruction to the country and its people and is intensifying the global economic shocks caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said at a meeting of the Security Council chaired by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
"Tensions between major powers are at a historic high. As well as the risks of global conflict due to wrong actions or miscalculations," Guterres said.

Consequences of shelling from the S-300 in the center of the city of Kupiansk, Kharkiv region. The Russian invaders hit the museum. There are people under the rubble, 10 people are known to be injured, 2 more are dead.

Red Square will be closed to visitors from April 27 to May 10
According to the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation, it will be closed due to the preparation and holding of the so-called "victory parade" (for the anniversary of the end of Great Patriotic War).

The German concern Mercedes-Benz has completed the sale of all its assets in Russia.

💻 The US has sent hackers to Ukraine to help fight cyberattacks of the Russian Federation, says Major General of the US Army.

The Rheinmetall company received an order for 200 million euros for the production of ammunition for BMP
The contract should be implemented in 2023-2025. The projectiles will be manufactured for an unnamed European country.

Russians use smartphones with an application with the coordinates of Ukrainian positions, – Syrskyi
"Commanders of assault groups use smartphones with special Alpine Quest GPS software, which contains the coordinates of the positions of our fire equipment, attack objects, routes of advancement to them, as well as the tasks of neighboring units," said the commander of the Eastern Group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

⚡️Joe Biden has officially announced that he will run for the US presidency in 2024.

❗️The Russian Defense Ministry confirms the attack on the Black Sea Fleet base in Sevastopol, but claims that it failed and that all three unmanned boats were destroyed.

The head of the Ukrainian sociological group Rating, Oleksiy Antypovych, believes that if Zelensky is thinking of not running for a second presidential term, then a successor should be prepared now, as suddenness in this matter can cause catastrophic social consequences.

The head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Kyrylo Budanov, said that Ukraine is approaching the format of an "all-for-all" exchange. According to him, more than 2,200 people have been released since the start of the full-scale invasion. Budanov called it an unprecedented case in history.

Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the head of the Presidential Office, called the Washington Post's article about Ukraine's plans to strike at Moscow a conspiracy. He said that this was illogical, and that such materials consciously or unconsciously form the opinion of Western partners that Ukraine "is an unreasonable, infantile and impulsive country that is dangerous for adults to trust with serious weapons." [have to admit it seemed ridiculously unlikely]

🇵🇱🇨🇿🇸🇰 Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia call for security guarantees for Ukraine before NATO membership
NATO should outline a clear path to Ukraine's membership when the conditions are right, but before that it should be ready to provide security guarantees that will remove Ukraine's status as a "gray zone" once and for all, according to a joint article by Prime Ministers Morawiecki, Fiala and Heger.

Tucker Carlson, a particularly toxic Fox News host in the United States, is leaving his post. He has previously made a number of covert and not-so-covert pro-Russian statements, including calling Zelensky a US dependent, a dictator and autocrat, a destructive force, and so on. He actively supported the thesis of alleged US biolabs in Ukraine that produced biological weapons, etc.

On May 9, only Kyrgyz President Sadyr Zhaparov agreed to attend the parade in Moscow with Putin, Putin's spokesman Peskov said.

🪖The clearing of the left bank of the Kherson region from Russian troops continues, but information silence is needed, said Natalia Gumenyuk, spokeswoman for the Southern Defense Forces.

Ukrainian soldier in Bakhmut last night as the sky turned into magical colors

A house with one of Banksy's graffiti is being demolished in Irpin. The drawing will be dismantled and preserved.

Washington Post Telegram

Exclusive: Wagner Group surges in Africa as U.S. influence fades, leak reveals (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/04/23/wagner-russia-africa-leaked-documents/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)

The Wagner Group is moving aggressively to establish a “confederation” of anti-Western states in Africa as the Russian mercenaries foment instability while using their paramilitary and disinformation capabilities to bolster Moscow’s allies, according to leaked secret U.S. intelligence documents.

The rapid expansion of Russia’s influence in Africa has been a source of growing alarm to U.S. intelligence and military officials, prompting a push over the past year to find ways to hit Wagner’s network of bases and business fronts with strikes, sanctions and cyber operations, according to the documents.

At a time when Wagner leader Yevgeniy Prigozhin has been preoccupied with Kremlin infighting over the paramilitary group’s deepening involvement in the war in Ukraine, U.S. officials depict Wagner’s expanding global footprint as a potential vulnerability.
(https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/04/23/wagner-russia-africa-leaked-documents/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)

Updated, Russian nuclear threats

Russian State TV has offered FU Tucker Carlson spots on various shows.

Would probably suit him

He doesn't speak Russian, as far as I know. His contract very likely had a non-compete clause too.

The far right is having a complete meltdown about his firing, which is funny to watch.

Are they calling Rupert Murdoch a lefty snowflake or the like?

That would be pretty funny.