Ukraine Invasion: Part 39

[MagicFox]

38 filled up quick. Welcome all to 39 🇺🇦

Shipping alcohol to Russia aids Ukraine. The Russians have to use hard currency to pay for it. Granted, you won't find Irish whiskey at the front lines, but it's still money they now can't spend on military and non-luxury goods.

Rampant alcohol abuse within their army is a real problem. I remember a video from early last year that showed a group of Russian soldiers getting ready to board a plane. One was so drunk he had to be carried onboard. No one seemed to think this was unusual.

I'd like to plug Douglas of Drumlanrig. No one's ever heard of them but they have amazing whisky, they are blenders and bottlers and converted me to Scottish blends from a single-malt drinker.

I'm teetotal and have been for years. So I've no molecule in this fight. 😀

Me and whiskey are not a good combo. Cornish gin, however...

Ooooh, Wrecking Coast clotted cream gin - my favourite 😍

I said upthread I'd buy regulars a drink when this all passes. Had no idea it would be fancy stuff like clotted cream gin. I thought you were all Watney's drinkers.

I suddenly feel very unsettled. If @notimagain suddenly reveals a penchant for strawberry daiquiris I will feel the world has tilted on its axis.

I’m an avid reader but don’t post much, however if you’re buying I’m just as happy with a soda water as I’ll be driving home. Cheers!🍸

When Ukraine declares victory, we should definitely meet up. Or for the far-flung members, post pictures of their favourite drink.

@Sandunesandseashells, you are a poster with impeccable taste.

Thank you

We could wear sunflowers on very large lapels as an identifier.

Mine's a gluten free beer. Alas as I discovered last summer, it seems to be pretty rare for a British pub to have any.

😄

Have no fear, it's beer here.........

Reported in Politico this morning:
"CRIMEA TABOO BROKEN: Andriy Sybiha, a Zelenskyy adviser, told the Financial Times that Kyiv is willing to discuss the future of Crimea with Russia: “If we will succeed in achieving our strategic goals on the battlefield and when we will be on the administrative border with Crimea, we are ready to open [a] diplomatic page to discuss this issue,” Sybiha said. But, he added, “it doesn’t mean that we exclude the way of liberation [of Crimea] by our army.”

And it's a nice glass of wine (preferably red!) for me 🍷

This morning I’ve been reading what The Donald has to say about the Ukraine war and Russia. He’s turned into quite the articulate diplomat.

No more ‘lock her up’ or ‘clear the swamp’… now it’s all about ‘negotiating peace’ and ‘understanding a country’s history, culture and pride’ [Russia’s but obviously not Ukraine’s].

Sounds like Putin’s been talking to his old friend again. The world is rather a scary place when our hopes have to be pinned on an 80 year old man’s health holding out.

@MissConductUS the article mentions a Trump-DeSantis joint ticket. Is that a possibility?

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-5-2023

Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukrainian forces will withdraw from Bakhmut to avoid encirclement if necessary, but do not yet assess the need to do so.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin framed Russia’s efforts to consolidate control of occupied territories of Ukraine as a matter of internal security and rule of law during a meeting with the Russian National Security Council.

• Putin also attempted to portray Russia as a respected world power against the backdrop of Chinese officials downplaying close relations with Russia.

• Putin dismissed Colonel-General Nikolai Grechushkin from his post as Deputy Head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations on April 5.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces continued to engage in positional battles along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.

• Russian forces likely made gains in and around Bakhmut and continued offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City frontline.

• Russian businessmen may be assuming a larger role in supporting the Russian MoD’s efforts to form irregular volunteer formations.

• Russian Commissioner for Children’s Rights Maria Lvova-Belova continues to deny international allegations that Russia is forcibly deporting Ukrainian children to Russia.

Expanded: The Kremlin is likely increasingly struggling to maintain loyalty among lower-level regional authorities as it continues to place the onus on funding the war on Russian federal subjects. Independent Russian outlet Verstka reported on April 5 that the Kremlin is developing a “program of privileges” in regional administrations to maintain loyalty among lower-level local officials ... regional vice-governors are being encouraged in an oddly framed measure to install vending machines in administration buildings, secure preferential bank loans for employees, and offer officials free city parking. ...the Kremlin has repeatedly placed the onus on Russian regional authorities to mobilize and fund the war, and Russian regions continue to bear the brunt of the Kremlin’s decision-making demographically and economically.[12] Such efforts are likely meant to pay lip service to the burden placed on regional entities but are unlikely to stimulate a significant increase in support for the war at the regional and local levels.

Note how the Uk MoD is confident enough in Russia's ineffectiveness to make an outright statement that "More senior military officials will be dismissed as Russia fails to achieve its objectives in the Donbass"

Kyiv Independent Telegram

Polish President Andrzej Duda awarded President Volodymyr Zelensky with the Order of the White Eagle during his visit to Warsaw on April 5, the Polish Press Agency reported.

⚡️Air Force: Russia's supply (https://kyivindependent.com/air-force-russias-supply-of-long-rage-missiles-nearly-used-up/) of long-range, high-precision missiles 'nearly' used up. [plenty of imprecise ones remain]

⚡️Ukraine's 'Drone Army' procures 3,200 drones (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-drone-army-procures-3-200-drones-in-first-9-months/) in first 9 months.

⚡️CNN: Kremlin likely struggling (https://kyivindependent.com/cnn-russia-is-struggling-to-generate-military-manpower/) to increase number of soldiers.
Russia is struggling to attract more military manpower and provide them with sufficient training, unnamed western officials told CNN on April 5.

China's ambassador to EU: ‘No limit’ friendship with Moscow ‘nothing but rhetoric.’ (https://kyivindependent.com/chinese-ambassador-to-eu-no-limit-friendship-with-moscow-nothing-but-rhetoric/)
China’s Ambassador to the European Union Fu Cong downplayed the Russo-Chinese partnership in an interview with the New York Times on April 5.
Despite China’s refusal to denounce the Russian aggression against Ukraine, Fu said that his homeland is not on Russia’s side of the war. The Chinese ambassador added that the relationship between Beijing and Moscow has been “deliberately misinterpreted.” [mm. Seems likely he's saying what the audience wants to hear]

The Latvian parliament has officially passed the National Defence Service Law mandating men between the ages of 18 and 27 to serve in the military, media outlet Delfi reported (https://www.delfi.lv/news/national/politics/latvija-ieviesis-valsts-aizsardzibas-dienestu-pirmais-iesaukums-jau-sovasar.d?id=55403562&ref=kyivindependent.com) on April 5.

⚡️Duda: Poland ready to transfer (https://kyivindependent.com/duda-poland-transfers-8-mig-29-jets-to-ukraine/) 8 MiG-29 Jets to Ukraine.

⚡️SBU: Ex-head of Antonov company charged with negligence (https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-ex-head-of-antonov-company-charged-with-negligence-in-case-of-mriya-aircraft-destruction/) in case of Mriya aircraft destruction.
The former director of Antonov State Enterprise, Serhii Bychkov, was charged with official negligence leading to the destruction of the world's largest cargo aircraft AN-225 Mriya, Ukraine's Security Service reported on April 5
According to the investigation, Bychkov did not ensure the evacuation of the Mriya aircraft despite the warnings of state authorities and knowledge of the insurance coverage's termination.

⚡️Poll: 94% of Ukrainians have negative (https://kyivindependent.com/poll-94-ukrainians-have-negative-view-of-russia-belarus-ranks-second-worst/) view of Russia, Belarus ranks second worst.

⚡️Spain postpones (https://kyivindependent.com/spain-postpones-leopard-2-tank-transfer-to-ukraine/) Leopard 2 tank transfer to Ukraine.
Six of Spain’s Leopard 2A4 tanks promised to Ukraine will leave the country in the second half of April, Spanish defense minister Margarita Robles said on TVE on April 5, as cited by Reuters.

⚡️Deputy defense minister: Russia conducting mass deforestation (https://kyivindependent.com/deputy-defense-minister-russia-destroys-natural-resources-in-occupied-territories/) in occupied territories.

⚡️Zelensky announces (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-announces-new-military-aid-package-from-poland/)new military aid package from Poland
"Today we are signing a document on the supply of Polish Rosomak armored personnel carriers, Rak self-propelled mortars, air defense systems, in particular the very effective Piorun," Zelensky said during his April 5 visit to Warsaw.

⚡️Czechia to send (https://kyivindependent.com/czechia-to-send-30-million-worth-of-military-aid-to-ukraine/) $30 million worth of military aid to Ukraine.

⚡️Military spokesperson denies (https://kyivindependent.com/military-spokesperson-denies-reports-of-russias-ammunition-shortage-in-eastern-ukraine/) reports of Russia's ammunition shortage in eastern Ukraine.
Russian troops have not experienced ammunition deficits in Ukraine's east despite Wagner Group's statements about the lack of projectiles on the front line, Serhii Cherevatyi, spokesperson for Ukraine's Eastern Military Command, said on April 5.

⚡️Poland and Ukraine sign joint memorandum (https://kyivindependent.com/poland-and-ukraine-sign-joint/) on reconstruction and munitions production.

⚡️49 countries condemn (https://kyivindependent.com/49-countries-condemn-russias-attempts-to-justify-deportation-of-ukrainian-children/) Russia's attempts to justify deportation of Ukrainian children.

Upcoming elections can change where Turkey stands on Russia’s war (https://kyivindependent.com/turkeys-mediator-role-in-russias-war-hinges-on-upcoming-elections/)

⚡️ Financial Times: Ukraine’s official says Ukraine may be willing (https://kyivindependent.com/financial-times-ukraines-official-says-ukraine-may-be-willing-to-negotiate-on-crimea/) to negotiate on Crimea.

⚡️Politico: EU joint plan to purchase ammunition for Ukraine hits roadblock (https://kyivindependent.com/politico-eu-joint-plan-to-purchase-ammunition-for-ukraine-hits-roadblock-over-contract-disagreements/) over contract disagreements.

⚡️Official: Ukrainian border forces sustain (https://kyivindependent.com/official-ukrainian-border-forces-sustain-more-than-1-800-russian-attacks-in-march/) more than 1,800 Russian attacks in March.

Low personnel losses today but one helicopter down.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

NATO will not yet deploy combat groups in Finland, — Bloomberg.
NATO believes that Finland has considerable capabilities and experience in defending its territory. In addition, there is no need to deploy allied troops for the time being.

With Western specialists' participation, Ukraine is "trying to influence Russian civilian satellites", – the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation.
Exactly how Ukraine allegedly affects Russian satellites is not specified.

The Dnipro river is Ukraine’s main artery that connects many of the country’s strategically important cities. It serves as a natural border with Belarus and has recently turned into a frontline in the South. As a response to Russia’s invasion, Ukraine has created a new branch of the Navy—the River fleet—that operates on this river. Watch the American Dauntless Sea Arcs and Gyurza warship in action.

In Moscow, one of the buildings of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation was on fire.

Kyiv and Warsaw settled the dispute regarding the export of Ukrainian grain to the EU, which was complained about by Polish farmers, – Zelenskyy

Ukraine remains in a joint bid with Spain, Portugal, and Morocco to host the 2030 World Cup, said Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa

Russia's Urals crude breaks through $60 a barrel cap price as Brent rises after OPEC+ announced output cuts, – Reuters

For the first time in aid packages there are the MIM-104 missiles for the Patriot air defense system.
One missile of the latest PAC-3 modification costs $3-4 million

Poland will supply the Armed Forces of Ukraine with three companies of self-propelled guns with Rak mortars, and this is the weapon that is very much needed at the front now
The Rak self-propelled mortar is based on the chassis of the Rosomak armored car, has a caliber of 120 mm, a firing range of up to 12 km, a rate of fire of 6-8 rounds per minute, and ammunition of 46 rounds. It only takes 30 seconds to deploy into position and 15 seconds to collapse.

Ukraine is ready to negotiate with Russia regarding Crimea in the event of a successful counteroffensive, Deputy Head of the Office of the President Andrii Sybiga said in an interview with the Financial Times.

Bulgarian authorities close their ports to all Russian vessels, regardless of which flag they fly under, — PortSEurope.

The US will hand Ukraine an experimental weapon to combat drones, – Defense One
According to the publication, we are talking about mobile platforms of the American company SAIC, about 10 of which will be transferred to Ukraine. Weapons will include such technologies as:
▫️ Laser systems for destroying drones.
▫️ Radio-electronic systems for creating obstacles and preventing normal work.
▫️ Capture systems, such as "predator drones" – for the physical capture of drones.
▫️Kinetic systems for destroying UAVs with missiles or small arms.
At the same time, the cost of ammunition will be less than 30 thousand dollars, which is cheaper than the anti-aircraft missiles with which Ukraine is currently shooting down Shahed UAVs

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Zelensky confirmed that the situation in Bakhmut is the most difficult. The enemy does not control the city, the decision to withdraw the Defense Forces may be made under the threat of large losses of personnel.

The Russians have dug almost 8 kilometers of trenches along the coastline from Yevpatoriya to the village of Zaozerne. They are protected by two rows of "dragon's teeth" - concrete barriers against armored vehicles. [Crimea]

In June, Serbia will host the Platinum Wolf 2023 military exercise, organized jointly with the United States and 10 NATO countries.

The FSB announced the detention of a Ukrainian pilot of a light aircraft that allegedly crashed in the Bryansk region. He was detained, and Russian media published a video of the interrogation, photos of the pilot, the plane, an assault rifle, and ammunition attributed to the pilot. The pilot himself allegedly tried to escape into the forest in the direction of Ukraine.
He is a civilian pilot who, together with volunteers, built an airfield in the Kharkiv region and is engaged in civilian air ambulance.

In Zhytomyr region, a projector was installed on the border with Belarus, broadcasting videos about Russia's invasion on a billboard. The video was published by the opposition channel Belsat.

The leader of the far-right French National Rally party, Marine Le Pen, would defeat Macron in the presidential election if it were held now.

Putin: "“Russia has no hostile intentions towards any country”."

Putin: "“Russia has no hostile intentions towards any country”."
Spat out my tea

The leader of the far-right French National Rally party, Marine Le Pen, would defeat Macron in the presidential election if it were held now.

Not really sure why the source came up with that comment, but since they have:

Le Pen would probably win a Presidential popularity contest if one was run today but the next one isn't due for several years...and hate to say it but RN (Le Pens party) is about as far to the right as the UKs Tories these days, there are other groups well to the right of Le Pen and her gang.

Currently from a actual government/governing party POV the drift here generally seems to be to the left, not the right.

Macron can’t run again. Quite what emerges in the coming years in the broad middle zones of French politics remains to be seen.

Macron can’t run again.

Actually yes there is that rather important fact...

Just a quick delurk to say that Ukraine pin badges (blue and yellow sunflowers) are available on Ebay - seems to be cheaper to buy two at a time, just in case those of you meeting for post -victory drinks are interested. Apologies if you are already aware of them. As you were :)

waves at User!

Another trait of Soviet days has returned.

🇷🇺 Cases of denunciation have proliferated in Russia after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

People across the country have been reporting their neighbours, students and even other family members to authorities for expressing dissenting views Free to read. https://on.ft.com/3nSFje9

Never say never, but I think it's pretty unlikely. DeSantis doesn't strike me as the type to be happy with the VP role, which is largely ceremonial. I think he'd wait for the next election cycle and try again.

I follow Julia Davis on Twitter. She translates Russian propaganda broadcasts. When they refer to Trump, it is usually as "our Trump". Trump envies Putin's freedom to rule without legal constraints, particularly now that his own illegal conduct is catching up with him.