Ukraine Invasion: Part 36

[MagicFox]

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 Thanks as usual to all contributors and lurkers

Not sure what to make of this - whether there is more to the story than is being told here
www.timesofisrael.com/in-liberated-kherson-jewish-leaders-are-being-accused-of-collaboration-with-russia/

Only thing I can say is that a Chabad rabbi will and does indeed always welcome anybody and everybody seeking Jewish assistance - that would be consistent with the general policy - they do that everywhere (and have been killed for it eg India)

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar thanks for the key takeaways.

ISW Key Takeaways
The Times reported that an unnamed US Defense source stated that the Pentagon is no longer insisting that Ukraine refrain from striking military targets in Russia given the ongoing Russian campaign of systematically destroying Ukrainian critical infrastructure.

I wonder whether this extends to using US-supplied military kit, as opposed to Ukraine-manufactured. I supposed we won't know.

Great that EU is holding Hungary's feet to the fire. There's a rogue EU member state for you.

Naem · Today 12:07
Not sure what to make of this - whether there is more to the story than is being told here
www.timesofisrael.com/in-liberated-kherson-jewish-leaders-are-being-accused-of-collaboration-with-russia/

Only thing I can say is that a Chabad rabbi will and does indeed always welcome anybody and everybody seeking Jewish assistance - that would be consistent with the general policy - they do that everywhere (and have been killed for it eg India)

What cruel times when a decent act of being a ‘good Samaritan’ can at the same time be aiding the enemy.

If you want a bit of a spirit lift recommend Ukrainecast from Friday. Talking about Christmas in Kyiv etc, lovely to listen to ❤️

BBC reporting that the Ukrainians have hit the Wagner Groups headquarters in Luhansk

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63933132

ISW Russian officials will continue to conduct information operations aimed at suggesting that Belarusian forces might invade Ukraine in order to pin Ukrainian forces at the Belarusian border. These information operations are extraordinarily unlikely to herald actual Belarusian intervention in the foreseeable future.

Key inflections in ongoing military operations on December 11:

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) denied rumors on December 11 that General Valery Gerasimov resigned or was removed from his position as Chief of the General Staff.[38]

Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that fighting continues along the Svatove-Kreminna line and near Lyman amidst poor weather conditions.[39]

A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces transferred over 200 pieces of equipment from the Kherson direction to the Kupyansk direction, and geolocated footage shows Russian T-90 tanks in Luhansk Oblast headed west.[40] A Ukrainian official stated that a larger Russian force grouping does not currently pose a threat.[41]

Russian forces made marginal territorial gains around Bakhmut as Russian and Ukrainian sources reported continued fighting in the area.[42] A Ukrainian Armed Forces Eastern Group spokesperson stated that Russian forces changed tactics from using battalion tactical groups (BTGs) to smaller assault groups for offensive actions.[43]

Russian and Ukrainian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces struck Skadovsk, Hola Prystan, Oleshky, and Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast, all along major Russian logistics lines.[44]

Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian military base in Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast.[45] One source claimed that the strike killed up to 200 Russian military personnel.[46]

Ukrainian officials reported that Russian occupation authorities intensified forced mobilization measures in occupied Ukraine.[47] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces face shortages of blood for wounded military personnel and are running donor drives in occupied Crimea.[48]

A Ukrainian partisan group claimed responsibility for setting fire to a Russian military barracks in Sovietske, Crimea.[49] Ukrainian and Russian officials reported that Russian authorities continued filtration and law enforcement crackdowns in occupied Ukraine.[50]

+++

Kyiv Indep Telegram

State energy operator receives loans of 400 million euros to repair grid after Russian attacks
(kyivindependent.com/news-feed/state-energy-operator-receives-loans-of-nearly-400-million-euros-to-repair-grid-after-russian-attack)
The financial package is led by a 300-million-euro loan from EBRD.

⚡️ Ukraine’s navy: 8 Russian warships on combat duty (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraines-military-8-russian-warships-on-combat-duty-in-black-sea-no-kalibr-missile-carriers-spotted) in Black Sea, no Kalibr missile carriers spotted.

⚡️Governor: Electricity restored (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/governor-electricity-restored-for-almost-90-of-consumers-in-kherson) for almost 90% of consumers in Kherson.

⚡️Erdogan, Putin hold a phone call (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/erdogan-putin-hold-a-phone-call-discuss-grain-deal), discuss 'grain deal.'
Erdogan earlier said that he plans to speak with President Volodymyr Zelensky following his conversation with Putin, but he didn’t specify the date.

⚡️Governor: 300,000 people remain without power supply (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/governor-300-000-people-remain-without-power-supply-in-odesa-oblast) in Odesa Oblast.

⚡️Zelensky, Macron discuss Ukraine’s peace plan (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zelensky-macron-discuss-ukraines-peace-plan).
The phone conversation came about a week after Macron said that if Putin agrees to negotiations to end Russia’s war, the West should consider providing Russia with security guarantees

⚡️PM: All of Ukraine’s thermal, hydroelectric power stations damaged by Russian attacks (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/pm-all-of-ukraines-thermal-hydroelectric-power-stations-damaged-by-russian-attacks).
Damage of varying severity was received by 40% of high-voltage network facilities, Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal said.

⚡️General Staff: Ukraine's forces hit (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-staff-russia-launches-5-missile-strikes-fires-artillery-40-times-on-dec-11) 7 Russian command points on Dec. 11.
Ukraine's military also struck Russia's 10 personnel concentration areas, an artillery concentration area,

General Staff: Russia forces (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-staff-russia-forces-people-to-receive-russian-passports-in-occupied-zaporizhzhia-oblast) people to receive Russian passports in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

⚡️ Over 82,000 Ukrainians have fled (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/over-82-000-ukrainians-have-fled-to-us-via-state-refugee-program) to US via state refugee program.
The U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services said over 82,000 Ukrainians and their immediate family members have been paroled into the U.S. under the Uniting for Ukraine (U4U) process. [and their immediate family members? so the 82k is actually higher? it's not clear]

⚡️ Sweden to allocate (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/sweden-to-allocate-new-military-aid-package-for-ukraine-invest-in-regional-security) new military aid package for Ukraine, invest in regional security.

⚡️ Reznikov: Ukrainian counteroffensive likely to resume (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/reznikov-ukrainian-counteroffensive-likely-to-start-when-ground-freezes) when ground freezes.
Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said on Dec. 11 that he predicts Ukraine’s military will resume its counteroffensive when the ground freezes, allowing for the easier transfer of equipment

⚡️Biden, Zelensky hold phone call (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/biden-zelensky-hold-phone-call-ahead-of-g-7-summit) ahead of G7 summit.
The two discussed further defense cooperation and Ukraine's energy security, as well as Ukraine's "ten-step peace formula."

⚡️Governor: At least 232 Zaporizhzhia Oblast residents are in Russian captivity.

UNITED24 Media

The occupiers have not prepared for the heating season in Mariupol, utilities in the city destroyed by the Russians do not work, said the mayor of Mariupol Vadym Boychenko
“The heating season in Mariupol has not started yet. People are sitting in the cold, freezing, and we see inscriptions both in the entrances and on the apartments: “SOS! We freeze. All Russian propaganda crashed against the winter that came to the territory of Ukraine," Boychenko said

Lithuania provided Ukraine with military assistance in the amount of 280 million euros

Germany will transfer 470 electric generators to Ukraine
According to the German Embassy in Kyiv, the total amount of assistance will be 19.5 million euros. 150 generators are already in Ukraine and at the moment it is planned to transport the remaining equipment.

It will take from one to two years to fully restore all damaged power facilities, – Dmytro Sakharuk, Executive Director of DTEK
According to him, the entire energy infrastructure of the country will not be restored, but will focus on the creation of new facilities, since some of them are outdated and have not been upgraded.

Training of Ukrainian doctors in air evacuation will begin in Poland – Jacek Siewiera, head of the National Security Bureau of Poland

the European Union has depleted its stocks by supplying weapons to Ukraine
This was stated by the head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrell.
According to him, Europe "needs modern and compatible European armed forces."

Today in Brussels, the EU Council at the level of foreign ministers will discuss the situation in Ukraine and the developments in Iran and will likely take new restrictive measures against Moscow and Tehran, BBC News reports, citing a senior EU official.

The oil price cap has finally hit Russia's revenues — Bloomberg
Moscow has lost more than 1.5 million barrels per day of sales market, probably by the end of the year sales will decrease by another 500 thousand barrels per day.
At best, contrary to US fears, the EU price cap has not only failed to drive prices up but has had the opposite effect, at least for now.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

⚡️The previously announced Ukrainian UAV with a range of 1000 km is already flying and undergoing the final stage of testing, - Ukroboronprom.
It will be able to attack targets behind enemy lines several times and return "home".

Port of Odesa is not working after Russian drone attack on energy facilities in the region

Teams of German concern KMW will repair heavy military equipment for Ukraine - Die Zeit.
The restoration center was established under an intergovernmental agreement between Germany and Slovakia 25 km from the border with Ukraine. [from hints here and there, repairs are a big problem, partly because some of the equipment is being overused]

Washington Post Telegram

• Ukraine deployed HIMARS rockets in Melitopol, Russian-installed officials said on Telegram, with regional governor Yevgeny Balitsky adding that the recreation center they hit was “destroyed” and civilians were eating dinner there. The Post could not independently verify the claims.

• Ukrainian and pro-Russian officials reported different death tolls in the Melitopol strikes, with Balitsky claiming two deaths and more than 10 injuries. Ivan Fedorov, the exiled Ukrainian mayor of Melitopol, said 200 people were killed or injured. The Post could not independently verify the figures.

• Ukraine’s biggest rock star, Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, showed support for Melitopol by posting a selfie on Instagram wearing a shirt that said, “Melitopol is Ukraine!” to his 342,000 followers.

Ooo nice!

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · Today 08:35
The phone conversation came about a week after Macron said that if Putin agrees to negotiations to end Russia’s war, the West should consider providing Russia with security guarantees

I wonder what these security guarantees would be? To me it seems as though it is Ukraine that would need them.

Losses just released. Wonder if the extra numbers are from the Melitopol barracks attack or the beginnings of more action now the ground is frozen. As there is a higher tank loss, it might be due to action.

ISW Russian officials will continue to conduct information operations aimed at suggesting that Belarusian forces might invade Ukraine in order to pin Ukrainian forces at the Belarusian border. These information operations are extraordinarily unlikely to herald actual Belarusian intervention in the foreseeable future.

Perhaps Ukraine's allies should do the same. Amass on the Belarusian border so they can't send all their troops down to the Ukrainian one.

Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧

8s
United Kingdom government organization
Ukraine has liberated around 54% of the maximum amount of territory Russia seized since 24 Feb 2022.

Russia now controls around 18% of internationally recognised areas of Ukraine, including the Donbas and Crimea regions under Russian control since 2014.

Russian media report that Putin has canceled the traditional December press conference he has been holding for years. In addition, the traditional message to the parliament did not pass, and the New Year's reception in the Kremlin was also cancelled.

twitter.com/noelreports/status/1602277217698041857?s=46&t=7k305_XqF97UH1goLIMXSA

Bit late but:

Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, Day 290, December 10th

🔥 Battlefield update:

🔥 Kherson: Camp of 🇷🇺 draftees in Chulakivka destroyed, over 100 killed, 200-300 wounded.

🔥 Melitopol: a key to defense of all 🇺🇦 south, largest manufacturing and logistics hub. If Melitopol falls, 🇺🇦 can reach Crimea and Mariupol. 🇷🇺 concentrating significant forces, 🇺🇦 bombing it for 3 days, even right now. Berdyansk airport also being bombed.

🔥 Vuhledar: nothing

🔥 Novomykhailivka-Marinka-Krasnohorivka-Avdiivka-Kamianka-Novabakhmutivka-Bakhmut-Soledar: hot line, 🇷🇺 forces with size of squad, platoon, rarely a company trying to attack with infantry supported by artillery. Attacks multiple times per day, mostly unsuccessful.

🔥 Bakhmut-Soledar: attacks many times per day with support of aviation and best remains of 🇷🇺 artillery. There are at least 12 tactical artillery groups (2 brigades). 🇷🇺 progress is 100m per week, while taking 1000 causalities.
Infantry attacks are easy to hold off, if you have well working fire control, and recon. However any slightest mistake, and infantry will reach you, and attacking infantry has advantages in trench warfare. There are different levels of preparedness for defenders. Well organized units can sit for months at same location. Units that are not working well will retreat, then better trained units will regain positions in counter-attacks.
Prognosis is that Bakhmut will not be captured.

🔥 Spirne-Bilohorivka: 🇺🇦 has liberated a little strip of Luhansk district, 🇷🇺 attacking, trying to recapture it. Same situation as everywhere, no success.

🔥 Kreminna-Svatove: 🇷🇺 unsuccessfully attempting runs in direction of Yampil-Lyman. 🇺🇦 actions have led to holding fire-control at multiple locations of road Svatove-Kreminna. 🇷🇺 forced to supply through Starobilsk.

🔥 Kharkiv-Chernihiv-Sumy: being shelled by 🇷🇺, occasionally something hits back at attackers.

🔥 Shahed drone attack:
Yesterday 15 drones were launched at south, 10 intercepted. Some damage to energy infrastructure in Odessa district.

🔥 Wagner and mobilized:
Inmates form corrective colony 29 in Kuzbass made a video, saying they are finishing training, but they don’t look like equipped for Wagner.
Man in 🇷🇺 uniform caught in 🇷🇺 Rostov district, firing at 🇷🇺 policemen. Unclear what police would write in protocol, if he is supposed to be in prison.
Prisoners can be “motivated” better for assault than mobilized – nobody would search for them if they go missing, so they have to choose between likely death in attack, or sure death for not complying.
Amount of prisoners recruited shows that mobilized are not going into assault willingly, meaning 🇷🇺 army lacks assault troops.
Attacks will only last, while there are prisoners, draftees can’t be for complicated or risky objectives. Second and third wave of mobilized won’t be good for attacks.

🔥 Strikes inside Russia:
🇺🇸U.S. has given green light for 🇺🇦 Ukraine to attack targets in 🇷🇺.
🇺🇦 has so far not listened to such restrictions, if they existed. If hypothetically 🇺🇦 would be doing such strikes, it would not use 🇺🇸 U.S. weapons for that, there are enough local weapons. 🇷🇺 Millerovo air base was attacked on 25th of February and not with 🇺🇸 U.S. weapons.

🔥 Russian munitions:
🇷🇺 are running out of Kh-555 and Kh-101 missiles, they can do 5-6 more operations of 100 missiles (one operation is 3-4 rounds). 🇷🇺 can then use Kh-22 which are ancient and very inaccurate (600+ meters). As they are intended against ships, they will look for largest target, and one such was used and hit supermarket.
Other missiles have less range (300km) and have smaller warheads. Their effectiveness is doubtful.
🇷🇺 will combine different missiles, in less amounts, effectiveness will decrease to minimum.

🔥 Victor But:
was just exchanged from 🇺🇸 and immediately expressed support of war in 🇺🇦. As he is 55 years old, he is welcomed to join 🇷🇺 army near Bakhmut, where he will get a chance to revenge for all his experiences in 🇺🇸 prisons and become immortal hero in 15 minutes.

🔥 Erdogan:
Planning to visit Moscow, and then Kyiv. Likely he was asked by Moscow, but 🇺🇦 should not worry. Possibly 🇹🇷 Turkey will get discount for gas, but 🇺🇦 will get more Bayraktars and armored vehicles.

@DesdamonasHandkerchief never too late! Always good to know what is happening on the various fronts.

🔥 Kherson: Camp of 🇷🇺 draftees in Chulakivka destroyed, over 100 killed, 200-300 wounded.


This seems to be in addition to the Ukrainian forces strike on the Russian/Wagner military base (hotel?) in Melitopol, with claims that up to 200 Russian military personnel killed.

If so, yikes, that is a lot of Russians killed. I somehow have less sympathy for Wagner deaths.

Interesting that Arestovych says this. Ukraine has enough of its own weapons to strike inside Russia itself? Cannot imagine it has too many of those, without dipping into US supplies.

🔥 Strikes inside Russia:
🇺🇸U.S. has given green light for 🇺🇦 Ukraine to attack targets in 🇷🇺.
🇺🇦 has so far not listened to such restrictions, if they existed. If hypothetically 🇺🇦 would be doing such strikes, it would not use 🇺🇸 U.S. weapons for that, there are enough local weapons. 🇷🇺 Millerovo air base was attacked on 25th of February and not with 🇺🇸 U.S. weapons.

I'm just popping in to offer two thoughts. The large strikes against troop concentrations in Melitopol and the Wagner command post (the second time that's happened) is right out of Ukraine's playbook for the offensives in Kharkiv and Kherson. I think they are shaping the battlefield for a similar offensive.

Those of you who listened to today's Ukraine: The Latest podcast heard the interview with the bloke who runs the U-Hearts foundation.

u-hearts.foundation/

I thought the Christmas hamper idea was lovely, so I send one.

Amount of prisoners recruited shows that mobilized are not going into assault willingly, meaning 🇷🇺 army lacks assault troops.

This sort of gives more support to the rumours of a mass spring mobilization too.

I find the cancelling of the December press conferences quite significant. It strongly implies something has gone very wrong, whether that's his health, the reported growing unease in Russia, factional problems or something else.

Ukraine has enough of its own weapons to strike inside Russia itself? Cannot imagine it has too many of those, without dipping into US supplies.

It's (rightly) hard to come up with definitive numbers, the Ukraine supposedly had several hundred Tochka-Us at the start of the conflict with a range of 100 km plus, also they had about 150 Tu-141s, a modified form, of which may have been used in the recent attack on places such as the Engels airfield.

FWIW on the Russian side despite sanctions they do still have some capacity to produce precision long range weapons such as Iskanders.

Unfortunately despite the talk of Russia having to resort to more dumb older missiles they can still continue to do a lot of damage to large, soft infrastructure related targets (e.g. power stations, electrical substations) with the relatively simple and not very accurate Iranian supplied drones.

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

ISW Key Takeaways

Key Takeaways

Russian forces are continuing to shape and consolidate their force composition in eastern Ukraine to bolster defenses against ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensives near the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border and support limited offensive efforts in Donetsk Oblast.

The cost of the Russian war in Ukraine will likely continue to undermine Russian President Vladimir Putin’s geopolitical campaigns worldwide.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) officially denied rumors that Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov has been or soon will be replaced, although it stopped short of offering the kind of credible support for this denial that it has provided that Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu is still on the job.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov stated that Ukraine intends to continue counteroffensives in winter 2022–2023 after the hard freeze enables maneuver warfare, supporting an ISW assessment.

Senior US government officials may be correcting their assessments about Ukraine’s ability and intent to conduct counteroffensive operations this winter.

Russian forces continued limited ground attacks near Svatove and Kreminna as Ukrainian forces struck rear areas in Luhansk Oblast.

Russian forces continued ground attacks in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka–Donetsk City areas and conducted defensive operations southwest of Donetsk City.

Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian military assets and logistics hubs along critical ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in southern Ukraine.

Russian forces are fortifying the northern beaches of Crimea along the Black Sea coast.

Russian forces may lack sufficient infrastructure to support their troops in Crimea.

+++

Kyiv Indep Telegram

⚡️G7 agrees on coordination platform for Ukraine aid, pledges more air defense.
The G7 agreed during a virtual summit to create a joint platform to coordinate both long and short-term support provided to Ukraine amid Russia’s invasion, the U.S. White House said on Dec. 12.
“We will each designate a senior government representative to oversee the set-up of the platform and ongoing coordination efforts, and ask them to convene as soon as possible in January 2023,” the G7 said.
The countries also promised to provide Ukraine with air defense systems amid Moscow’s large-scale missile attacks on the country.

⚡️Food export resumes (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/food-export-resumes-from-odesa-ports-after-power-outage-disruptions) from Odesa ports after power outage disruptions.

⚡️Foreign Ministry: Ukraine’s embassy in Greece receives (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/foreign-ministry-ukraines-embassy-in-greece-receives-bloody-package) ‘bloody package’ in latest act of intimidation.

⚡️Slovak Foreign Minister: Slovakia remains ready to send MiG jets (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/slovak-foreign-minister-slovakia-remains-ready-to-send-mi-g-jets-to-ukraine) to Ukraine.
Slovak Foreign Minister Rastislav Kačer said his country remained ready to send its long-promised 11 MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine, and preparations are to begin in the “coming weeks."

⚡️EU Council to increase European Peace Facility fund used to provide arms to Ukraine by 2 billion euros (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/eu-council-to-increase-european-peace-facility-fund-used-to-provide-arms-to-ukraine-by-2-billion-euros).

⚡️EUobserver: Upcoming EU sanctions to hit Russia's pro-war media (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/e-uobserver-upcoming-eu-sanctions-to-hit-russias-pro-war-media).

⚡️Ukraine’s intelligence: Russia built nearly 400 cruise missiles (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraines-intelligence-russia-built-nearly-400-cruise-missiles-since-february-despite-western-sanctions) since February despite Western sanctions.
Russia appeared to have built 240 air-launched Kh-101 cruise missiles and about 120 sea-based Kalibr cruise missiles since February,

⚡️PM Shmyhal: Russia trying to overwhelm Europe with new refugee wave (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/pm-shmyhal-russia-trying-to-overwhelm-europe-with-new-refugee-wave).
By attacking Ukraine's energy infrastructure, Russia is trying to "flood" the European Union with a new refugee wave, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on Dec. 12.
According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, as of late November, over 4,751,065 refugees from Ukraine have registered for temporary protection status or equivalent.

⚡️Prime minister: Ukraine needs $1 billion to restore energy sector.

⚡️EU sanctions Iran for supplying Russia with drones for its war in Ukraine.
The European Union on Dec. 12 added four individuals to the list of sanctions against Iran, as well as four entities “for their role in the development and delivery of UAVs used by Russia in its war against Ukraine.”

⚡️Wallace: UK 'open-minded’ about handing over longer-range weapons to Ukraine.

⚡️Parliament committee recommends liquidating
(kyivindependent.com/news-feed/parliament-committee-recommends-liquidating-ukraines-most-notorious-court)Ukraine's most notorious court.
The Verkhovna Rada's legal policy committee on Dec. 12 recommended approving a bill to liquidate the Kyiv District Administrative Court, headed by Ukraine's most scandalous judge Pavlo Vovk, Roman Babiy, a member of the committee, said on Facebook. The statement follows a decision by the U.S. Department of State on Dec. 9 to impose sanctions against Vovk.

⚡️Mayor: Explosion reported at strategic bridge (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/mayor-explosion-reported-at-bridge-near-occupied-melitopol-used-for-russian-military-supplies) near occupied Melitopol.
Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov reported that a bridge near the Russian-occupied city in the southeast Zaporizhzhia Oblast, used by the Moscow troops for transporting military equipment, exploded.

⚡️General Staff: Ukraine repels (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-staff-ukraine-repels-russian-attacks-near-16-settlements-in-east) Russian attacks near 16 settlements in east.

UNITED24 Media

More than half a thousand civilians of the Zaporizhzhia region passed through the captivity of the Russians

Air defense of Ukraine cannot shoot down ballistic missiles, they need to be hit at the start, — speaker of the Ukrainian Air Force Yuriy Ignat
“Neither Iskanders, nor S-300 missiles, nor Iranian missiles... Today, ballistics is not available for shooting down with the air defense systems we have in service. Therefore, the most effective method of destroying these missiles is at the start, where they are,” he said.

🪗 The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation announced the collection of musical instruments to be sent to those mobilized for war in Ukraine – they believe that this will support the morale of the invaders.
Russians are offered to bring free accordions, harmonicas, guitars, balalaikas.

France has handed over six 155mm TRF1 towed howitzers to Ukraine, the French Defense Minister said.

The EU has filled its gas storage facilities to more than 90% – enough to survive the winter
However, additional measures are needed to prevent a shortage in 2023.

Russia hits Ukraine with old Ukrainian X-55 missiles, which were transferred to Russia after the signing of the Budapest Memorandum, – NYT, citing Skibitsky, a representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense
According to him, these missiles were produced at a Ukrainian military plant in the 70s and were intended to carry nuclear warheads.

The enemy shelled two Kherson hospitals earlier this day. (yesterday)

⚡️ Spain will send more than 25 generators to Ukraine in the coming days, the Spanish Defense Minister told La Sexta
Spain also continues to participate in the EU mission to train Ukrainian military personnel, and 200 military personnel will arrive there in January.

❗️ The EU agreed on a package of sanctions against Iran for helping Russia in the war against Ukraine
Eight people and one organization were included in the sanctions list.
▫️Mado Managing Director Yousef Aboutalebi – the company's engines are used in the Shahed-136 drones.
▫️Commander-in-Chief of the Iranian Air Force Hamid Vahedi, who is involved in Iran's UAV programs, drone exports, and defense cooperation with the Russian Federation.
▫️IRGC Brigadier General Ali Reza Balali.
▫️Commander of the Aerospace Forces of the IRGC Abdollah Mehrabi.
▫️The DAMA company is engaged in the research, development, and production of the Shahed-171 program.
▫️IRGC UJSO is a jihadist research organization of the IRGC, which develops communication systems.
▫️Paravar Pars Company, which produces drones for the Aerospace Forces of the Kyrgyz Republic.

The International Financial Corporation will assist Ukraine in restoring and attracting investment in infrastructure, a memorandum has been signed with the IFC, which is part of the World Bank Group.

Until the victory, I will be president, but then I don’t know. I want the sea and beer, – Zelensky in the hour-long special on Netflix
“Until our victory, I will definitely be president. And I don’t even think what will be next. I don’t think about that yet, I’m not ready. I just want to go to sea when we win, and I really want to have some beer,” said Zelensky in an interview with David Letterman.

⚡️ Thousands of specialists from Ukraine will work in the Czech Republic to increase the production of weapons, – Deputy Minister of Defense of the Czech Republic.

Germany confirmed delivery of 24 new self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine
The shipment of the next batch of weapons was announced by the head of the defense committee of the Bundestag, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann. She also added that in the near future Germany will transfer six or seven Gepard self-propelled guns to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Foto is the current state of the Mariupolitan Theatre.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Politico: The US Air Force wants to transfer Reaper drones to Ukraine. At the same time, the Pentagon is discussing this issue. American officials fear the loss of secret technologies.

🇭🇺 Hungary managed to get the European Union to unfreeze part of the funds intended for it. In exchange, the country lifted its veto on some important issues, in particular on €18 billion of macro-financial assistance for Ukraine.

Day 292, December 12th. Summary of Arestovych and Feygin daily broadcast
Posted on 13 December 2022
|

in Arestovych Broadcasts

🔥 Battlefield update:

🔥 Kherson: A series of very successful bombings, over 300 draftees killed in last 2-3 days.

🔥 Melitopol: A hotel with Kadyrovytes destroyed, about 200 killed (possibly in several attacks). Bridge destroyed, meaning isolation of battle theater, delaying supplies.

🔥 Novomykhailivka-Marinka-Avdiivka-Bakhmut: Battles, most intense south of Bakhmut, in direction of Chasiv Yar and
Kostiantynivka. 🇷🇺 tempo has decreased, weather and some changes are having impact against them. 🇷🇺 is doing worse due to reasons that are well know, but can’t be named yet. Forces from Kherson did become available, so they must be somewhere.

🔥 Nyzhnia Duvanka-Svatove-Rubizhne: sometimes 🇷🇺 attacking, sometimes 🇺🇦 attacking.

🔥 Kharkiv, Zaporozhye, Nikopol, Mykolaiv, Kherson: getting shelled, artillery shelling in Kherson, civilians getting killed.

🔥 Land Forces Day:
Congratulations to the members of Land Forces, largest branch (70%) of 🇺🇦 military. They have their own aviation and engineering. Land forces are the only branch, that can do combined arms operations, they are the heart of army. They hold the burden of war.

🔥 Bakhmut:
Kadyrov claims, front line is moving. Arestovych doesn’t think that 🇷🇺 has chance to break front-line. Even if 🇷🇺 would capture Bakhmut, it doesn’t bring operational value.

🔥 Sanctions:
Possible agreement on 9th pack of sanctions until end of year, possibly even this week. Natural gas prices about to get agreed on in next couple of days. Personal sanctions on some propagandists, artists and filmmakers, including Nikita Mikhalkov.
Story with TV Rain (Dozhd) shows that even liberals need to reevaluate their values, have repentance, sit in reflection for long time, asking themselves how did they got here, what actions, decisions and choices have led to this moment. Possibly this will happen, when 🇷🇺 gets occupied (unknown by whom).
All those highly loved artists like Mikhalkov simply don’t understand what have they done during last 22 years and even before that. Even if all 166 sanctioned will have remorse, they won’t go public with that. All hope is on Alla Pugacheva, Maxim Galkin and Andrey Makarevich who did immediately announced their opinion starting with Crimea occupation in 2014.
Sanctions on natural gas are desired and effective, but sanctions on artists and directors won’t have much impact.

🔥 Weapons:
🇪🇺 Josep Borrell expressed possibility for additional € 3.5 bn funding.
It can have good impact, if it’s spent on weapons exceeding 🇷🇺 capabilities, like IRIS-T, Caesar artillery or if exceeding in quantity.
Likely it will be quality, as quantity can be problematic. 🇪🇺 European manufacturing can likely deliver only long in next year, but even then supplies will be needed.
🇬🇧 Johnson requested for missiles to allow 🇺🇦 hitting drone launch locations.

🔥 Next offensive:
🇺🇸 Forbes predicts next 🇺🇦 Ukraine offensive to happen in direction of Zaporozhye. Attacks in last days do look like either preliminary shots or a distraction. Everyone wants to see easy victories, like near Kherson or Kharkiv. Weather is going to be +3 to +4°C, meaning a lot of mud. However weather doesn’t impact war a lot, it’s still happening near main roads. There have been many examples of attacks at unfavorable weather.

🔥 Kosovo:
It is likely show-off by both sides displaying vehicles of special forces, as part of bargaining. Even if situation develops into full conflict, it’s nowhere near war in 🇺🇦 Ukraine. It’s possible to have separate provocations, even causalities, but it won’t cause serious crisis in Europe. Moscow is not even hiding their attempts to provoke.

🔥 Poland air defense:
🇩🇪 Germany and 🇵🇱 Poland will start deploying Patriot missile systems in 🇵🇱 Poland near 🇺🇦 Ukraine border. We will immediately see, if they will intercept 🇷🇺 missiles within 🇺🇦. NATO is decided to not allow conflict beyond 🇺🇦, but likely they are not ready to announce this. NATO has huge gap between non-reaction and full reaction, they need proof of direct intentional attack. From this, it’s easier for them to destroy any missile approaching, than react with full power. Unknown, if any air threats will be destroyed already within 🇺🇦 Ukraine, or only if they cross 🇵🇱 Poland air space.
Possibly 🇷🇺 would even limit their missile range, because 🇷🇺 patriotic society could react to NATO involvement.

🔥 Iran supplies:
🇮🇷 Iran complains of no proof, using 🇮🇷 drones in 🇺🇦. Possibly 🇮🇷 could supply missiles with limited range of 300km, instead of full 700km. 🇮🇷 denies building drone factories within 🇷🇺. There are many proofs, dozens of intercepted drones.
Right now there are no missiles and no new drones, that’s likely a result of very strong international pressure from 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia, 🇮🇱 Israel, 🇺🇸 U.S., 🇪🇺 Europe and 🇬🇧 U.K.

🔥 Zelensky-Biden call:
Not much official information. Cryptic message from head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andrey Yermak: 🇺🇦🇺🇸📞=🚀🌎💪 [Ukraine U.S. Call = Rocket Earth Strong]. Rocket is good news, a reason for celebration.

🔥 Power blackouts:
G7 meeting on assisting 🇺🇦 with energy infrastructure – 🇺🇦 will not be extinguished. There can be blackouts, even for several days, or disconnected power islands. It’s unpleasant and problematic, but there won’t be apocalypse. Army is completely autonomous, and not depending on energy infrastructure – this won’t have any impact on operations. This is purely a terror on civilians, leading to 9th pack of sanctions and natural gas price cap.

🔥 Nuclear threats:
Washington post as usual making loud headlines. If 🇺🇦 attacks Crimea, it would be hard for 🇷🇺 to hit specifically attacking forces, as they are in motion. 🇷🇺 won’t be making nuclear attack on Crimea, they can hit some city or military base, only making 🇺🇦 angrier.
If 🇺🇦 goes to Crimea, 🇷🇺 already have significant operational crisis, and are unable to defend on land. At that point, nuclear strike won’t have any purpose.
There already have been rhetoric’s after hitting Crimea bridge and other attacks.
The man who’s building golden toilets in Gelendzhik, doesn’t want to die in nuclear war.
Crimea can be made unlivable for 🇷🇺 solders, without entering it, the same way as Kherson.

You couldn't make this stuff up!

Thank you for the updates @DesdamonasHandkerchief !

figures released now. the 500 dead are presumably from the two big bombings, since there are very few military hardware losses.

I admit to being puzzled.

eurasiantimes.com/mq-9-reaper-drones-for-ukraine-us-air-force-keen-to-dispatch/

The Pentagon's and Congress's position seems to be "these drones cannot be sent to Ukraine because if they are used they may fall into enemy hands and then the enemy will be able to work out how they work".

But surely that argument applies as much if the Americans use them as if the Ukrainians do.

Doesn't that mean, in effect, that the Pentagon/Congress is saying that this weapon can never be used at all?

I suppose the answer to that is to send in dummy ones that are designed to fail, as well as the ones that explode and destroy all useful tech as they do so....

Doesn't that mean, in effect, that the Pentagon/Congress is saying that this weapon can never be used at all?

No...in simple terms what is being said is the Americans and/ or NATO want to keep the really sensitive aspects of "kit" hidden until American and/or NATO forces are directly involved....

Pretty much always been the case, in many cases if you export high end ordnance you sell a slightly degraded the export version and keep the gold plated version at home in case you end up fighting a war.