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Ukraine Invasion: Part 36

992 replies

MagicFox · 03/12/2022 15:42

Slava Ukraini πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ Thanks as usual to all contributors and lurkers

OP posts:
Thread gallery
110
notimagain · 12/01/2023 07:03

Autumnnewname · 11/01/2023 23:05

Just when I think I can't depose them anymore.

Scum

Agree with the general sentiment...but

I see last night there was a lot of discussion on at least one ex-mil (mostly army) forum that the Russians in the video were not necessarily wearing Ukrainian uniforms....It's certainly not my specialist subject but I do know prior to the conflict the two armies had a lot of kit, including uniform, in common. That of course is why we've seen the yellow/blue/white whatever tape being applied to try and prevent "blue on blue".

A common opinion in the other place was that the shooting might have happened as a result of confusion over whether one of the individuals was actually surrendering or not. Certainly over the years there's always been a thought that the act of surrender on the battlefield is highly risky, simply because your intent may not be obvious and people will be jumpy/twitchy.

Personally it's certainly something that was never in "my aisle", so to speak, but I think it's fair to point out that certainly some who do have experience of these sort of operations feel this particular incident may not quite be as clear cut an example as a war crime as is perhaps being claimed.

Autumnnewname · 12/01/2023 08:39

Not in again. That's interesting to know

I don't have any military experience but I can hazard a guess at the difficulty

So I'll probably change my sentiment to "not surprised if it's true"

notimagain · 12/01/2023 09:53

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 11/01/2023 21:35

It seems as further info came out that Poland has committed to sending the tanks but only as part of the coalition

The drip feed continues, from Politico, last night..

www.politico.eu/article/britain-germany-us-battle-tanks-ukraine-war/

It's still all going to come down to End User Licences and for reasons that we can only speculate upon it does appear Chancellor Scholz is not rushing to give the OK for anyone to supply Leopard 2 to Ukraine.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 12/01/2023 14:35

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

Key Takeaways

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on January 11 that Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov will take over as theater commander as part of a major reshuffle of the Russian command structure for the war in Ukraine.

Gerasimov’s appointment is likely intended to support an intended decisive Russian military effort in 2023, likely in the form of resumed Russian offensive operations.

The elevation of Gerasimov and the Russian MoD over Surovikin, a favorite of Prigozhin and the siloviki faction, is additionally highly likely to have been in part a political decision to reassert the primacy of the Russian MoD in an internal Russian power struggle.

Gerasimov will likely preside over a disorganized command structure plagued by endemic, persistent, and self-reinforcing failures that he largely set into motion in his initial role before the invasion of Ukraine.

The Russian defense industrial base’s inability to address munitions shortages will likely hinder the ability of Russian forces to sustain offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in 2023.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated that a renewed Russian offensive operation from Belarus remains highly unlikely.

Russian forces have not yet fully captured Soledar despite recent Russian advances, and the possible capture of Soledar is unlikely to enable Russian forces to capture Bakhmut.

Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly issued secret and preemptive pardons to Russian convicts fighting with the Wagner Group in Ukraine, potentially further empowering Wagner to operate with impunity in the theater.

Russian forces continued limited counterattacks near Svatove as Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Kreminna and struck rear areas in Luhansk Oblast.

Russian claims about Wagner Group and conventional Russian military formations’ operations in the Soledar area likely reflect competing claims over the responsibility for the most recent notable Russian tactical advances in Ukraine.

Russian forces conducted ground attacks across the Donetsk Oblast frontline.

Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces are withdrawing key assets and restructuring logistics networks in southern Ukraine due to Ukrainian strikes.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced a plan to improve the Russian defense industrial base.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 36
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 12/01/2023 14:50

Kyiv Indep Telegram

⚑️ Ukraine Mil Intelligence: All potential conscripts banned (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/intelligence-all-potential-conscripts-banned-from-leaving-russia) from leaving Russia, apparently a majority of conscription-age men - from leaving the country in all directions since Jan. 9.
The Kremlin's spokesperson Dmitry Peskov later denied the report.

⚑️Stoltenberg: NATO should step up support (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/stoltenberg-nato-should-step-up-support-for-ukraine-amid-battle-of-soledar) for Ukraine amid battle of Soledar.

⚑️Ombudsman: Ukraine, Russia agree (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ombudsman-ukraine-russia-agree-on-prisoner-swap) on prisoner swap.
Russia and Ukraine have agreed on an exchange of 40 prisoners of war, Russia's Human Rights Ombudsman Tatiana Moskalkova told Reuters on Jan. 11.

European Commission Vice-President Frans Timmermans said.: Ukraine can’t join EU while partly occupied (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/top-eu-official-ukraine-cant-join-eu-while-partly-occupied-by-russia) by Russia.

⚑️Russia appoints (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russia-replaces-surovikin-with-gerasimov-as-overall-commander-of-war-against-ukraine) Gerasimov in place of Surovikin as overall commander of war against Ukraine.

⚑️Ukrainian military: Russia shells (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukrainian-military-russia-shells-bakhmut-area-249-times-over-past-day) Bakhmut area 249 times over past day.

⚑️Ambassador to Turkey denies (kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/ambassador-turkeys-alleged-deliveries-of-cluster-munitions-to-ukraine-are-nothing-more-than-gossip) reports about Ankara's supplies of cluster munitions to Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Ambassador to Turkey Vasyl Bodnar said that such claims are made in an attempt to damage Ukraine-Turkish relations, as well as the international image of these two countries.

⚑️10 Norway-donated bridges to be installed (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/10-norway-donated-bridges-to-be-installed-in-liberated-parts-of-ukraine) in liberated parts of Ukraine.

⚑️Opposition: Belarus may have created (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/opposition-belarus-may-have-created-wagner-like-private-military-company) Wagner-like private military company.

⚑️Energy Ministry: Ukraine started importing (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/energy-ministry-ukraine-started-importing-small-volumes-of-electricity-from-eu) small volumes of electricity from EU. The ministry expects to increase the volumes.

⚑️ Ukrenergo: β€˜Significant’ power deficit persists (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukrenergo-significant-power-deficit-persists-in-ukraine) in Ukraine.

⚑️Ukrainians buy over $6 million (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/uk-defense-ministry-russia-aware-campaign-is-falling-short-of-strategic-goals) in military bonds on Diia government application.
Ukrainians purchased over 250,000 military bonds through the state e-service application Diia, contributing to a government initiative to raise funds for military and medical equipment.

⚑️Politico: More than 2,000 cyber attacks aimed (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/politico-more-than-2-000-cyber-attacks-aimed-at-ukraine-in-2022) at Ukraine in 2022.
While more than 300 of the attacks were against the security and defense sector, over 400 of the attacks targeted organizations in the commercial, energy, financial, telecommunications, and software sectors, Politico reported.

Lower personnel and military losses, one helicopter down.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 36
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 12/01/2023 15:15

UNITED24 Media Telegram

North Korea has provided security assistance to Russia by channeling it through third countries, US State Department spokesman Ned Price said

The mayors of Warsaw, Prague, Budapest and Bratislava arrived in Kyiv, – Polsat News

❗️Lithuania will provide Ukraine with anti-aircraft defense systems and anti-aircraft systems, β€” Zelenskyy

Norway handed over more than 100 generators to Ukrainian border guards, according to the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine.

On the basis of one of the NATO countries, Ukroboronprom has launched mass production of 82-mm fragmentation mines
Advanced projectiles are more deadly and can be used to destroy enemy manpower at a distance of up to 4500 meters.
"According to the standard, when a standard mine explodes, the number of fragments that should hit a target at a distance of 5 meters should reach 198 units, at a distance of 10 meters – 70 units, and at a distance of 15 meters – 41 units. In ammunition improved by specialists of enterprises "Ukroboronprom", these are 460, 140 and 69 fragments, respectively," the state concern said in a statement.

Today, Bradley infantry fighting vehicles arrived in the Dutch port of Vlissingen, which the US government promised to transfer to Ukraine

Warsaw will give Kyiv 60 subway wagons, – Kyiv Regional State Administration

Swiss OSINT researcher Benjamin Pittet published a satellite image of the airport in Berdyansk, which the Russians are equipping for a base
The photo shows at least 17 Russian helicopters and various fortifications.

The Russians shelled a maternity hospital in Kherson.

Soledar is being stormed by the entire Russian elite that moved from Bakhmut, – the officer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

China seeks to distance itself from Putin, β€” Financial Times, citing its sources
Chinese diplomats have privately signaled that they want to improve relations with Western countries.
Beijing is trying to improve relations, especially with Europe, after they were severely damaged by China's support for Russia.
The publication notes that China is "unofficially" trying to convince its European partners that it is ready to use its influence to prevent the use of nuclear weapons by Russia, act as a potential "peacemaker" and help in the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine.
One anonymous Chinese official told the Financial Times: β€œPutin is crazy. The decision to invade was made by a very small group of people. China should not blindly follow Russia.”
At the same time, Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping are publicly discussing plans to deepen relations between the countries.

⚑️The US and its allies are preparing new sanctions against the Russian oil industry, aimed at limiting the price of Russian oil exports, β€” The Wall Street Journal

China reduces purchases of Russian coal in favor of Australian coal because Australian coal is better, β€” Reuters

The Russian Mission to the UN initiates a meeting of the Security Council of the World Organization for Ukraine on January 17, said Dmitry Polyansky, First Deputy Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the UN.

❗️Berlin should allow other countries to supply Leopard tanks to Ukraine, – German Economy Minister and Vice-Chancellor.

Hungary does not plan to supply Ukraine with weapons and will not allow them to be transported through its territory, – said the head of the Office of the Prime Minister of Hungary, Gergely GulyΓ‘s

The new Israeli government will not change its policy towards Ukraine and will not transfer weapons to Kyiv so as not to spoil relations with Russia, Politico reports

The UN global "peace summit" will be held on the "anniversary" of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, that is, on February 24, 2023, – Ukrainian Ambassador to TΓΌrkiye Vasyl' Bodnar

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 12/01/2023 15:26

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Russia loses $172 million daily due to oil price restrictions - Bloomberg.

The lost revenue will increase to $280 million a day when the restriction is extended to petroleum products from February 5.

Belarusian monitoring associations reported the transfer of Russian mobilized soldiers back to Russia after training in Belarus.

Separate liberation of Kinburn Spit is not expedient [but will happen as part of the overall liberation] Colonel Yevhen Yerin, Head of the Joint Press Center of the Defense Forces

❗️Ukraine's Armed Forces detect Russian Armed Forces preparing for a new massive missile attack, - Head of the Press Center of the Joint Forces Operation "South".

President of Slovakia allowed her citizens to join the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
In Slovakia, there is criminal liability for unauthorized joining a foreign army - from two to eight years in prison and from five to ten years in martial law. At the same time, the law on conscription allows military service in the armed forces of a foreign state with the permission of the President.

The UK Ministry of Defence has unveiled Stormer armoured vehicles with Starstreak anti-aircraft missiles mounted on them. These armored vehicles are part of a total package of 200 Stormers that the UK has donated to Ukraine.

Sheikh Said Ismagilov, the former Mufti of the Religious Administration of Muslims of Ukraine, the President of the Center for Islamic Studies of Ukraine. In April 2022, he volunteered to the Armed Forces, serves as a medic and driver. Now he is in Bakhmut

The next two to three months will be difficult and decisive, - NSDC Secretary Danilov.
"Russia has to go all-in, because it cannot drag on the war forever. February 24 will be one of the periods when the Kremlin would like to report to the public on the achievement of any success."

πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡ΊBrussels wants to adopt the 10th package of sanctions by February, Hungary may again become a brake - PAP.

Russia may launch an offensive on the left-bank part of Zaporizhzhya, said Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksiy Hromov. The enemy is trying to intercept the strategic initiative.

Maxar showed a photo of a field in the Bakhmut area, which was damaged by bombs [Just try farming on that]

Ukraine Invasion: Part 36
Ukraine Invasion: Part 36
pigsinoodies · 12/01/2023 15:57

On the basis of one of the NATO countries, Ukroboronprom has launched mass production of 82-mm fragmentation mines

Advanced projectiles are more deadly and can be used to destroy enemy manpower at a distance of up to 4500 meters.

"According to the standard, when a standard mine explodes, the number of fragments that should hit a target at a distance of 5 meters should reach 198 units, at a distance of 10 meters – 70 units, and at a distance of 15 meters – 41 units. In ammunition improved by specialists of enterprises "Ukroboronprom", these are 460, 140 and 69 fragments, respectively," the state concern said in a statement.

I'm pretty sure this relates to mortar shells rather than mines as stated.

notimagain · 12/01/2023 16:35

pigsinoodies · 12/01/2023 15:57

On the basis of one of the NATO countries, Ukroboronprom has launched mass production of 82-mm fragmentation mines

Advanced projectiles are more deadly and can be used to destroy enemy manpower at a distance of up to 4500 meters.

"According to the standard, when a standard mine explodes, the number of fragments that should hit a target at a distance of 5 meters should reach 198 units, at a distance of 10 meters – 70 units, and at a distance of 15 meters – 41 units. In ammunition improved by specialists of enterprises "Ukroboronprom", these are 460, 140 and 69 fragments, respectively," the state concern said in a statement.

I'm pretty sure this relates to mortar shells rather than mines as stated.

Completely agree, but there seems to be some ambiguity in the language used in some statements:

Ukroboronprom state concern has set up mass production of 82mm mortar shells abroad, at the facilities of one of the NATO member countries, the press service reports.
"It is noteworthy that the mine improved by Ukroboronprom is many times better than the standard mine.

(my italics)

en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/883765.html

MissConductUS · 12/01/2023 16:41

82mm is a standard size for Russian mortar rounds. When I saw the term mines used it reminded me that several of the US shipments of military kit included large numbers of Claymores but I haven't seen any mention of them in use by the UAF. They'd be perfect in a defensive role now that Ru is trying to retake territory around Bakhmut.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 12/01/2023 20:18

www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64253708

A gigantic deposit of rare earths, used in everything from mobiles to missiles and in green techs, has been found in North Sweden.

It will take time for the mining operation to be set up and for the minerals to reach the markets but this means a much reduced dependence on Chinese rare minerals in the future.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 13/01/2023 08:53

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

Key Takeaways

Russian forces have likely captured Soledar on January 11, but this small-scale victory is unlikely to presage an imminent encirclement of Bakhmut.

Russian President Vladimir Putin likely seeks scapegoats for the Russian defense industry base’s struggle to address equipment and technological challenges, and retains unrealistic expectations of Russian capacity to rapidly replace losses.

Ukrainian intelligence confirmed that senior Russian military leadership is preparing for significant military reforms in the coming year, though ISW continues to assess Russia will struggle to quicklyβ€”if at allβ€”implement planned reforms.

Russian and Ukrainian forces reportedly continued offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line.

Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and west of Donetsk City.

Russian forces continued defensive operations on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River.

Russian officials and occupation authorities may be preparing for the mass deportation of Ukrainian citizens from occupied territories to the Russian Federation.

Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Defense Andrei Kartapolov announced that Russian military recruitment offices may increase the age of eligibility for conscription as early as this spring’s conscription cycle.

Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Ground Forces, Oleg Salyukov (who was appointed as one of Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov’s three β€œdeputies” as theater commander in Ukraine), arrived in Belarus to take control of combat coordination exercises for the joint Russian-Belarusian Regional Grouping of Forces (RGV).

Ukraine Invasion: Part 36
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 13/01/2023 08:59

Kyiv Indep Telegram

⚑️Ministry: Ukraine retrieves (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ministry-ukraine-retrieves-bodies-of-54-soldiers-killed-in-olenivka-prison-massacre) bodies of 54 soldiers killed in Olenivka prison massacre.
The bodies of 54 fallen defenders of Olenivka in Donetsk Oblast have been returned to Ukraine in a transfer organized with the mediation of the International Committee of the Red Cross, and their DNA is now being examined, the Reintegration Ministry reported on Jan. 12.

⚑️Zelensky: Everything necessary for battles for Soledar and Bakhmut
(kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zelensky-everything-necessary-for-battles-for-soledar-and-bakhmut-will-be-provided-promptly-and-uninterruptedly)will be provided 'promptly and uninterruptedly.' [Soledar appears to have fallen, from the ISW assessment, but other reports say that battles are still ongoing]

⚑️Civic watchdog: 'Worst' candidates with links to Russia appointed (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/civic-watchdogs-tainted-candidates-with-links-to-russia-appointed-to-top-judicial-body) to top judicial body.
The Congress of Judges on Jan. 12 appointed eight members of the High Council of Justice, the judiciary's highest governing body.
Most of the new members are controversial and violate ethics and integrity standards, while some have links to Russia, according to legal think-tank DEJURE and other civic watchdogs. They have denied the accusations of wrongdoing.

⚑️German minister: Berlin shouldn't oppose (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/german-minister-berlin-shouldnt-oppose-transfer-of-polish-leopard-tanks-to-ukraine) transfer of Polish Leopard tanks to Ukraine.
German Vice-Chancellor and Economy Minister Robert Habeck said on Jan. 12 that Berlin β€œshould not stand in the way” of Poland's decision to supply German-made Leopard tanks to Ukraine.

⚑️Japan allocates $95 million (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/japan-allocates-95-million-for-restoring-ukraines-critical-infrastructure) to restore Ukraine's critical infrastructure.

More personnel, more hardware losses and 1 plane down.

Foot pedicure by duck.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 13/01/2023 09:08

Live: Ukraine Telegram

πŸ“Š74% of Europeans support EU assistance to Ukraine - Politico.
Almost as many (73%) said they agree with the EU's financial, military and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine, as well as with sanctions against Russia.

The Verkhovna Rada voted for the law No. 8098, which expands the rights of foreign volunteers in Ukraine.
Now foreigners from the ranks of the National Guard, State Special Transport Service and other military formations can legally stay in Ukraine and obtain Ukrainian citizenship under a simplified procedure.

The Mayor of Budapest after visiting Bucha appealed to Hungarians
"If someone has lost the moral compass and cannot see the difference between the victim and the aggressor, if someone has forgotten what Hungarians went through in the twentieth century, I advise you to come here, to Bucha and Kyiv, and look into the eyes of the survivors. Then it will be clear that in this war, not just two countries are fighting each other, but an evil force is trying to occupy another country," Gergely KarΓ‘csony said.

Russian businessman detained in Poland - he collected data on NATO troops

A 6-year-old girl Elia died of a heart attack in Avdiivka. She stayed in the city despite constant Russian shelling together with her grandparents.

Generators with total capacity of one NPP power unit were delivered to Ukraine - Forbes
The capacity of all imported devices is at least 1 GW in total
During 11 months of 2022, almost 354 thousand generators were imported to Ukraine.

❗️Russia is trying to create a two-million army - GUR

The Military Intelligence of Ukraine does not rule out that the Russian leadership will announce another wave of mobilization in the coming days. Another 500 thousand Russians will join the Russian army, which will allow the terrorist country to create strategic reserves.

According to the military intelligence of Ukraine, the scale of mobilization activities conducted by the aggressor country indicates the plans of its leadership to create an army of about two million people.

The Guardian, citing sources, writes that former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson plans to visit Kyiv. This may be his fourth visit to Ukraine since the beginning of the great war - the first three were during his premiership.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 13/01/2023 09:16

UNITED24 media Telegram

The number of Belarusian troops near the border with Ukraine has not increased, there is still no threat of an offensive, – Commander of the Joint Forces Serhiy Nayev

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation has already reported on the "destruction" of the Bradley BMP.
Nevertheless, it is important to clarify that Ukraine yet has any of them in service.

Russia has released U.S. Navy veteran Taylor Dudley, who was held in Kaliningrad for nine months, – negotiator and former UN ambassador Bill Richardson said, CBS News reports
"While we are celebrating Taylor's safe return, we remain very concerned about Paul Whelan and are determined to continue to work towards his safe return," Richardson said.

The US intends to continue military assistance to Ukraine after the previously announced record $3 billion package, – White House.

Beavers help the Armed Forces of Ukraine to fight Russians 🦫
The threat of a second invasion of the Russian Federation from Belarus remains, but the weather conditions and the vital activity of beavers in the border zone do not at all contribute to the offensive, the military believes.
Now around the border, there are kilometers of overflowing rivers, thick silt, and swampy fields. The local population of beavers also contributed to the flood.
β€œWhen beavers build dams, people usually destroy them, but that didn’t happen this year because of the war, so now there’s water everywhere,” said a spokesman for the Volyn Territorial Defense, which is now conducting exercises in the border areas.

Spain will allocate 225 Ukrainian troops at an air force base near Madrid, 20 of them will be trained to work with HAWK anti-aircraft systems, the Spanish Ministry of Defense said in a statement.

Azerbaijan handed over another batch of power generators to Ukraine.

Deputy Prime Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov said that more than 2.4 million Ukrainians currently live in damaged or destroyed housing.

❗️Russia plans to capture Donetsk and move on to the capture of the Zaporizhzhia region, – Oleksii Hromov
β€œThe main goal of the enemy is to seize the entire territory of our country and destroy the statehood of Ukraine.
To implement the plans, Russia intends to increase the total number of armed forces to 1.5 million people and form at least 20 new divisions," he said.

The occupation administration of the annexed Crimea plans to force Ukraine to compensate for the damage caused by the explosion on the Crimean Bridge.

The European Commission supported Estonia's intention to start confiscation of Russian financial assets without waiting for other EU countries.

PMC "Wagner" is recruiting mercenaries in Serbia, we are working to prevent this, β€” US State Department adviser Derek Chollet.

France hopes to deliver AMX 10-RC tanks to Ukraine within two months, β€” Reuters @notimagain @MissConductUS
French Defense Minister SΓ©bastien Lecornu reportedly made the announcement following a telephone conversation with Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov "in which France also reaffirmed its overall support for Ukraine."

MissConductUS · 13/01/2023 14:38

France hopes to deliver AMX 10-RC tanks to Ukraine within two months

Crikey, they hope to deliver them within two months? Those tanks must need some serious maintenance. It might be quicker to build new ones. It's a good thing there's not a war going on.

MMBaranova · 13/01/2023 14:40

Assuming the Ukrainian dashboard is accurate, Russian deaths in the war are about to reach two times the US losses in the Vietnam conflict.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 13/01/2023 15:25

Alarmingly, one if the more reliable Twitter accounts reckon that Ukraine has lost 2/5 of its tanks. From about 2370 just over 1400. The 1400 include the ones captured from the Russians

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 13/01/2023 15:39

Day 323, January 12, 2023. Summary of #Arestovych and #Feygin broadcast
Posted on 13 January 2023

⚑️ RU command change and internal strife:
Gerasimov was appointed the supreme commander of the β€œspecial military operation” in Ukraine. This is a sign of political infighting in Russia. There are 3 internal political factions around Putin: the oligarchs with β€œliberal” tendencies, the classic Siloviki, and the β€œcrazy” far right: Kadyrov, Prygozhyn, etc. The appointment of Gerasimov is a snub to the far right. The tensions between Wagner and the RU Army are demonstrated in the two contradicting statements about Soledar. Lapin, who was severely criticized before, was also rapidly promoted. Gerasimov will accomplish nothing, just like his predecessor Surovikin. Wagner may now encounter sudden β€œsupply difficulties” because logistics are now controlled by a man who Prygozhyn has insulted. The RU MOD faction ended up being stronger than expected. Russia is now subservient to its military.

⚑️ Aims of a RU offensive:
With the upcoming offensive, Russia wants to demonstrate its capability to successfully attack after 4 months of constant failure. With the possible but not guaranteed capture of Soledar, Russia wants to create the illusion that after Kherson they can still mount offensives and that this war will drag on therefore it is in the best interest of the other side to negotiate. However, Ukraine will not negotiate while even a single Russian soldier is on its land.

⚑️ Soledar:
The AFU are not yet planning to retreat out of Soledar. The public reaction on the Ukrainian side to the possible capture of Soledar is disappointing, as people are overestimating the importance of a 10,000 town compared to the liberation of the regional capital city of Kherson, and the brilliant success of the AFU in the Kharkhiv operation. The AFU are currently deciding whether or not to withdraw from Soledar. The fact that the decision is in the AFU’s hands indicates that they still possess the overall strategic initiative. If the Ukrainian forces end up withdrawing from the town, it will be a planned withdrawal, and not a rout, as the Russian media attempts to portray it. The overall situation is under control and the AFU is accomplishing its mission objectives.

⚑️ Overall front-line situation:
The Russians conducted rocket strikes in the rear areas behind Bakhmut. Zelensky announced that western aid will be prioritized for the defense of Bakhmut. Unspecified actions also take place in Zaporizhzhia, Mari’inka, Avdiivka, and Tokmak. Artillery duels in Kherson, with at least 3 hits on Russian ammo storages in the last 2 days. 15 strikes were carried out by the Ukrainian Air Force in the last 24 hours. The Kherson and Melitopol directions are being reinforced by Russian troops. Combat is also occurring to the south of Kremina.

⚑️ Russian conscripts:
The maximum age of conscription has been raised from 27 to 30. This adds 300,000 conscripts. Conscripts were briefly involved in the first days of the operation but were withdrawn. Now, Russia may want to send them to the front to augment the Russian mobilised military in Ukraine by enticing conscripts to sign contracts. The Russian command is thinking in terms of batches of 200,000 of which half are sent to plug gaps in the front while the other half is trained. The question which is raised now is whether there will be a third batch of 200k. The RU army is also being increased to counterbalance PMC Wagner and Kadyrov’s forces.

⚑️ Western equipment:
Tanks are now officially on the table. Arestovich says β€œthere will be many tanks but as usual less than we would like”. It will be interesting to see what will be discussed at the upcoming Rammstein meeting because this will indicate how the West perceives the next 6 months of the war. In any case, there will be a focus on supplying armored vehicles, which is what Ukraine needs, but the West is not yet giving enough.

⚑️ Western political figures:
The ex-US Secretary of state and minister of defense have called on the US government to immediately provide Ukraine with more military assistance to keep the pressure on Putin. Their position is shared by all Ukrainian experts and political figures.

⚑️ Arestovych says that up until the end of the war Ukraine will continue to receive western military aid, and new forms of it, including fighter jets, but it will always be less than what the Ukrainians ask for.

⚑️ Arestovych expressed brief interest in having a debate with Igor Girkin to dismiss his reasoning. Girkin vehemently denied any potential debate with the β€œenemy”.
Next stream on Saturday, 14 January.

MissConductUS · 13/01/2023 17:12

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 13/01/2023 15:25

Alarmingly, one if the more reliable Twitter accounts reckon that Ukraine has lost 2/5 of its tanks. From about 2370 just over 1400. The 1400 include the ones captured from the Russians

Many of them will simply have broken down and been abandoned. Tanks are not particularly reliable vehicles (especially the tracks) and you need a specialized vehicle to recover them for repair. I doubt Ukraine has many such recovery vehicles.

MissConductUS · 13/01/2023 18:55

NPR had a great interview with Condi Rice, the highly respected former US Secretary of State, regarding US support for Ukraine. Fun fact about Condi, she was a child prodigy on the piano, performing with major American symphonies at age 15. She performed for the Queen in 2013. Before becoming Secretary, she was the State Department's top Russia expert.

Condoleezza Rice calls for 'urgency' in sending weapons and money to Ukraine

PerkingFaintly · 13/01/2023 19:25

Rice was one of the more interesting contributors to the BBC 2 series "Putin, Russia and the West". www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/b01b434y/putin-russia-and-the-west

And that's saying something, because it was line-up of fascinating, high-power people closely involved with events.

Igotjelly · 13/01/2023 23:20

Big explosion at a pipeline connecting Lithuania and Latvia. No immediate signs of it being connected to Ukraine but I’m always a bit uneasy when things like this happen.

DrBlackbird · 14/01/2023 09:29

Just wanting to say thank you for the stream of reliable updates to all contributing. This thread is my go to for info.

i was going to say something about Putin trying to win in Ukraine through sheer manpower similar to WWII, which prompted some further reading. Now, I’m embarrassed to admit that I never knew soviet Russia and nazi Germany had signed a pact in 1939 to divide up Poland and the rest of Eastern Europe. I had only focused on the soviets loss of a million+ men lost fighting Germany by the end of the war. What Putin’s Russia is doing is more of an extension of long standing aggression to neighbouring countries than the several decades of its so called dΓ©tente.

Anyhow, with this constant increase in conscription, Putin seems to signal it it the endless supply of fighting men that will enable Russia to beat Ukraine.

notimagain · 14/01/2023 10:04

@DrBlackbird

I’m embarrassed to admit that I never knew soviet Russia and nazi Germany had signed a pact in 1939 to divide up Poland and the rest of Eastern Europe.

Ah, the infamous Molotov-Ribbentrop non-aggression pact...........that ended well....

Nothing to be embarrassed about, TBF I thought 20th century history was dreadfully taught in schools ( a while back) and despite the emphasis then on dead kings I've got massive gaps in my knowledge of English history and don't know my Yorks from my Tudors....

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