Ukraine Invasion: Part 36

[MagicFox]

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 Thanks as usual to all contributors and lurkers

minsmum · Today 12:01

mobile.twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1601170999944568833 the Russians have been talking about Nazis in Kazakhstan, this is a response from a well known Kazakh journalist saying that if Russia think they can get a much needed victory by attacking Kazakhstan they had better thing again. He also says if you want to see Nazis look in the mirror

That is a good, clear response
minsmum
I did not realise Russia had been threatening them too.

I just saw on Twitter that Kazakhstan are moving tanks to the border with the Russian Federation

Kazakhstan will be FINE. I suspect they have more tanks than Russia...

I think Russia may have bitten off more than they expected

Putin being a waste of oxygen again today I see 🙄

Ooof that's a strong and on point message 👏
Fuck Around, Find Out Russia!

Drunk Putin video still running through my head.

Not confirmed yet, but good if true:

FLASH
@Flashnewsua
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi refuses annual face-to-face meeting with Putin - Bloomberg.
"The event, traditionally held in December, was canceled as the Russian president threatened to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine" an Indian official told the news agency.
@Flashnewsua

It’s being reported by multiple sources so looks very promising

US warns that Russia and Iran are developing a defence partnership that will have implications for Ukraine and the international community more widely. No evidence of Russia is helping Iran with their nuclear programme but they are collaborating in "areas like weapon development and training"

www.ft.com/content/19edc1d1-9e12-40c2-8d5f-e66630e18157

Maybe the West should start giving support and legitimacy to the revolutionaries then? On the condition that the new leaders cut ties with Russia.

(I know interfering in foreign affairs is bad).

ISW Key Takeaways

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to discuss negotiations with Ukraine as a means of separating Ukraine from its Western supporters by portraying Kyiv as unwilling to compromise or even to talk seriously.

Putin’s positioning in the Russian information space continues to oscillate between supporting the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and backing the nationalist and pro-war milblogger community.

An independent open-source investigation by the BBC’s Russia service and independent Russia outlet Mediazona found that members of Russian national republics deploy to Ukraine at disproportionately higher rates than ethnically Russian oblasts, but that ethnic Russians are dying at a rate proportional to their representation in the Russian Federation population, contrary to previous ISW assessments.

Russian officials strengthened existing legislation to stifle domestic dissent.

Senior US officials stated that Russia is providing an unprecedented level of military and technical support to Iran in exchange for Iranian-made weapons systems.

Russian forces established defensive lines near Svatove, and Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks near Kreminna.

Russian forces continued ground attacks near Bakhmut and Avdiivka.

Russian forces may have established positions on an island west of Kherson City in the Dnipro River.

Ukrainian forces’ interdiction campaign against Russian military assets and logistics hubs in southern Ukraine has likely degraded Russian forces, their logistics lines, and broader Russian morale.

Putin doubled down on claims that Russia will not conduct a second wave of mobilization amidst persistent concerns within Russian society.

Russian occupation authorities continued to strengthen physical, legal, and social control over occupied territories.

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Kyiv Indep Telegram

The biggest concern - sorta - is Putin and his nuclear willywaving again. In full:
⚡️ Putin: Russia considers 'preemptive strike concept (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/putin-russia-considers-preemptive-strike-concept).'
ussian dictator Vladimir Putin said on Dec. 9 that the country could adopt what he refers to as a U.S. policy of using preemptive military strikes in its military doctrine, the Associated Press reports.
"We are just thinking about it. They weren't shy to openly talk about it during the past years," Putin said during a press conference in Kyrgyzstan.
"Speaking about a disarming strike, maybe it's worth thinking about adopting the ideas developed by our U.S. counterparts, their ideas of ensuring their security," Putin added.

⚡️ Erdogan announces (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/erdogan-announces-new-talks-with-zelensky-putin) new talks with Zelensky, Putin
Turkey’s president said that he would hold negotiations with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin about the grain corridor on Dec. 11.

⚡️ Energoatom: Russian troops assault (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/energoatom-russian-troops-assault-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plants-workers) Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant’s staff.
Russian forces “severely beat” two top managers of the plant, and detained another one, according to Ukraine's state nuclear regulator.

⚡️ Germany to supply (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/germany-to-supply-ukraine-with-18-howitzers-other-military-equipment) Ukraine with 18 howitzers, other military equipment.
The German government has announced the upcoming delivery of 18 RCH-155 self-propelled howitzers, 80 pickup trucks, 90 anti-drone sensors and jammers, 2 hangar tents, and 7 load-handling trucks to Ukraine.

⚡️ UN rights chief says (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/un-rights-chief-says-ukraine-is-human-rights-emergency) Ukraine is ‘human rights emergency.’ [no shit, Sherlock]
About 17.7 million Ukrainians need humanitarian help because of Russia’s all-out war against the country, including 9.3 million who require food and livelihood assistance, United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk said on Dec. 9.

⚡️ Bulgaria will send (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/bulgaria-will-send-its-first-military-aid-to-ukraine-mainly-light-weaponry-ammo) its first military aid to Ukraine, mainly light weaponry and ammo.
The Bulgarian parliament voted on Dec. 9 to approve a list of arms proposed by the country’s interim government.

⚡️ Ukraine's economy shrank (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraines-economy-shrank-by-30-8-in-third-quarter-of-2022) by 30.8% in third quarter of 2022, according to State Statistics Service.

⚡️Biden administration approves $275 million security assistance package for Ukraine.
The package includes weapons and artillery rounds, as well as equipment to help Ukraine strengthen its air defense, the Pentagon said.

⚡️Official: Over 13,000 Ukrainian children illegally deported to Russia.
Russia has already deported more than 13,000 Ukrainian children to its territory, Daria Herasymchuk, Ukraine's presidential advisor for children's rights and rehabilitation, reported on Dec. 9.
"And this, unfortunately, is not the final figure," she said, adding that "we still have to learn about at least tens of thousands of Ukrainian children who were stolen by the Russian authorities." [ I hope there's a hell, and I hope children-stealers go to the bottom]

⚡️UK prime minister announces more military aid for Ukraine
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, in a conversation with President Volodymyr Zelensky, said that the country is set to hand more anti-air guns and further short-range air defense missiles to Ukraine in the coming weeks, according to a U.K. government statement on Dec. 9.

⚡️Zelensky: Russian troops have 'effectively destroyed Bakhmut'.

Ukrainian drones threaten Russia but production scarcity is an issue (kyivindependent.com/national/ukrainian-drones-threaten-russia-but-production-scarcity-is-an-issue)

⚡️US sanctions Ukraine's most notorious judge charged with corruption.

(kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/us-sanctions-ukraines-most-notorious-judge-charged-with-corruption)
The U.S. Department of State on Dec. 9 sanctioned Pavlo Vovk, head of Ukraine's Kyiv District Administrative Court, to commemorate International Anti-Corruption Day.
Vovk has become a symbol of injustice, lawlessness, and impunity in Ukraine. Cases against him have been blocked and sabotaged by prosecutors, investigators, and courts for several years.
In December 2021, the Kyiv Independent urged the U.S. to sanction two key individuals charged in corruption cases - Vovk and President Volodymyr Zelensky's deputy chief of staff Oleh Tatarov.

⚡️ Russia detains 10,000 men (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russia-detains-10-000-men-of-conscription-age-in-moscow) of conscription age in Moscow.
Men were grabbed "right on the street and even at work," Russia's independent human rights group Memorial reported on Dec. 9. The police took off their identification badges and did not identify themselves, the report reads. [back to the times of the Gulags then]

⚡️ Norway to allocate $100 million to restore Ukraine's damaged infrastructure.

⚡️ Education Minister: Russian missile attacks have damaged or destroyed over 390 education facilities since Sept. 1.

⚡️Russia’s overnight drone attack on Odesa Oblast leaves most consumers without power.

⚡️UK Defense Ministry: Iran’s support for Russian military ‘likely to grow’ in coming months.
Iran is currently “one of Russia’s top military backers” worldwide, the U.K. Defense Ministry said on Dec. 10.
“Russia is attempting to obtain more weapons (from Iran), including hundreds of ballistic missiles,” the ministry said in its intelligence briefing. “In return, Russia is highly likely offering Iran an unprecedented level of military and technical support that is transforming their defense relationship.”

Washington Post Telegram

— Russia is adding to its nuclear stockpiles, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Friday, hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested his country’s military doctrine could be changed to allow for a preemptive first strike.

— The tensions follow a prisoner swap that secured the release of WNBA star Brittney Griner from Russian custody. Those negotiations did not thaw U.S.-Russian relations, which have been stressed since Russia invaded Ukraine, Putin said Friday at a televised news conference in Kyrgyzstan.

Russian disinformation is demonizing Ukrainian refugees

(www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/12/08/russian-disinfo-ukrainian-refugees-germany/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)As Russian forces continue to shell Ukrainian cities, pro-Kremlin propagandists have homed in on a new target: turning Europeans against the 7.8 million Ukrainian refugees who make up the continent’s largest displacement since World War II.

In doing so, Russia’s disinformation merchants are needling at deep-seated European fault lines over immigration, echoing how Russia-linked operatives famously exploited major U.S. social media platforms to sow division around topics such as race ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

Experts say the propaganda campaign, which Facebook parent company Meta has called “the largest and most complex Russian-origin operation that we’ve disrupted since the beginning of the war in Ukraine,” aims to stoke fear and divisions among Ukraine’s critical European allies as they brace for a new influx of refugees this winter.

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Live: Ukraine Telegram

🇮🇳India's PM refuses to meet Putin over nuclear threats to Ukraine - Bloomberg
The publication noted that this would be only the second time that the leaders of India and Russia have not met face-to-face since 2000, when the relations between the two countries were transferred to the category of strategic partnership. The summit, which is usually held in December, was canceled only once in 2020 at the height of the pandemic.
Bloomberg sources indicate that the cancellation of the summit does not mean a deterioration in relations between New Delhi and Moscow, however, they said Narendra Modi believes that a meeting with the Russian president now will not bring him benefits.

German company Rheinmetall has signed a contract for the production of two Skynex anti-aircraft missile systems worth 182 million euros. According to Handelsblatt, Ukraine will receive these systems.
Skynex uses programmable 35mm ammunition to work on attacking drones or cruise missiles. [I think these are some years' away though, hope I'm mistaken]

An explosion occurred in a residential building in Ryazan, Russia. People remain under the rubble.
What is the reason? The explosion was caused by a moonshine still. And this is not a joke.

Morocco will provide Ukraine with spare parts for T-72 tanks.
This is the first time that a country in Africa provides military assistance to the Ukrainian side.
It is worth noting that Morocco participates in meetings of defense ministers in the Ramstein format.

Poland intends to deploy new K2 tanks on the border with Kaliningrad (Russia), - Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.

NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg said that he fears the possibility of expanding the war in Ukraine to "a major war between the Alliance and Russia", but believes that this can be avoided.

and on the other hand, this is reported:

The Times: The US is no longer insisting that the Ukrainian Armed Forces not strike Russian territory as it is less afraid of escalation from Moscow.

Ukraine can help Russian regions with referendums on secession from Russia
Ukraine can help with the holding of electronic referendums in certain territories of Russia, which may claim to secede from the Russian Federation, - said MP Oleg Dunda during the Forum of Free Peoples of Russia, which is held in Sweden.

British artist Banksy to sell 50 of his paintings to raise money to help Ukraine

⚡️The European Commission mobilized emergency reserves to send 40 generators to Ukraine, - the press service of the European Commission.
Azerbaijan also handed over humanitarian aid to Ukraine consisting of 45 power transformers and 50 generators - Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry.

🇭🇺Hungary's reforms are not enough to unfreeze billions of EU euros - European Commission.

A young collaborator from Kupiansk, who participated in propaganda plots, knocking down Ukrainian symbols from buildings, fled to Belgorod after the liberation of the city, was drafted into the occupation army and died near Bakhmut

Another maternity hospital hit, thankfully no casualties this time

Glad there was no casualties but gives me the rage that they hit hospitals.

I spotted the NATO beer in the shop today, just had to buy one for OH.

Ukraine can help Russian regions with referendums on secession from Russia
Ukraine can help with the holding of electronic referendums in certain territories of Russia, which may claim to secede from the Russian Federation, - said MP Oleg Dunda during the Forum of Free Peoples of Russia, which is held in Sweden.
Hah, love this idea

Russia detains 10,000 men (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russia-detains-10-000-men-of-conscription-age-in-moscow) of conscription age in Moscow.
Men were grabbed "right on the street and even at work," Russia's independent human rights group Memorial reported on Dec. 9. The police took off their identification badges and did not identify themselves, the report reads. [back to the times of the Gulags then]

You would really hope that this might be a turning point for Russian citizens. This is insanity. Thousands dying… for what?! One man’s nationalistic project
seeking some past glory of empire.

I'm afraid it won't be. This happened within living memory, to grandpas and grandmas. Recorded in Solzhenitsyn's Gulag Archipelago. People learned very deeply to keep their heads down and to consider their own survival. Starting to think it goes back even further to pre-Revolution times.

Reports that Ukraine has hit Crimea several times.

Check in.

Hope we hear more soon.

Apparently Kerch Bridge is now largely repaired

www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-63872209

Satellite images show how a key bridge to the Crimean peninsula, damaged by an explosion in October in mysterious circumstances, has now been largely repaired.

ISW Key Takeaways

The Times reported that an unnamed US Defense source stated that the Pentagon is no longer insisting that Ukraine refrain from striking military targets in Russia given the ongoing Russian campaign of systematically destroying Ukrainian critical infrastructure.

Russian forces conducted attacks against Ukrainian infrastructure using a higher number of Iranian-made drones than in previous weeks.

Putin risks losing support from proxy leaders in Donetsk Oblast due to Russian forces’ failure to push Ukrainian forces out of artillery range of Donetsk City.

Russian authorities are increasingly importing Chechen officials and forces to man administrative regimes of occupied areas.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations toward Svatove, and Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks near Kreminna.

Russian forces continued attempts to advance toward Bakhmut and in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area and to defend their positions in western Donetsk Oblast.

Russian authorities plan to launch programs in Russia and occupied Ukrainian territories to prepare children for military service.

Russian forces in occupied Donetsk Oblast are reportedly commandeering civilian utility equipment to construct defensive structures.

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

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Kyiv Indep Telegram

⚡️ EU Council adopts (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/eu-council-adopts-18-billion-euro-assistance-for-ukraine-despite-blockage-by-hungary) 18 billion euro assistance for Ukraine despite blockage by Hungary.
The EU Council said on Dec. 10 that it agreed on a package that will "enable the EU to help Ukraine financially throughout 2023 with 18 billion euros.”
The proposal will be submitted to the European Parliament “for possible adoption” next week.

[Orbán might be finding that he's starting to be sidelined. The EU has not lifted the restrictions on giving Hungary money and now it's going to go ahead with the 18bn aid]

⚡️ EU Council adopts (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/eu-council-adopts-18-billion-euro-assistance-for-ukraine-despite-blockage-by-hungary) 18 billion euro assistance for Ukraine despite blockage by Hungary.
The EU Council said on Dec. 10 that it agreed on a package that will "enable the EU to help Ukraine financially throughout 2023 with 18 billion euros.”
The proposal will be submitted to the European Parliament “for possible adoption” next week.

⚡️Germany refuses to give Patriot air defense to Ukraine, says they are part of NATO defense (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/germany-refuses-to-give-patriot-air-defense-to-ukraine-says-they-are-part-of-nato-defense).

⚡️Russia shells maternity hospital (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russia-shells-maternity-hospital-in-kherson) in Kherson.
Russian troops shelled a maternity hospital in the southern city of Kherson, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, deputy head of the President's Office, reported on Dec. 10. No one was injured, according to Tymoshenko.

⚡️Lithuania’s President: Belarusian offer to transport Ukrainian grain is a trap (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/lithuanias-president-belarus-offer-to-transport-ukrainian-grain-is-a-trap).
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda wrote that Belarus' offer to transport Ukrainian grain through its territory to Lithuania is just another attempt to escape sanctions.
“It is a trap. Let’s not fall into it,” Nauseda said.

⚡️ Germany to provide (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/germany-to-provide-ukraine-with-470-power-generators) Ukraine with 470 power generators.

⚡️ General Staff: Ukraine hits (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-staff-ukraine-hits-russian-base-in-zaporizhzhia-oblast-injuring-russian-150-soldiers) Russian base in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, injuring 150 Russian soldiers.

Israel ambassador: ‘Anti-Israel voting in UN jeopardizes support for Ukraine’ (kyivindependent.com/national/israel-ambassador-anti-israel-voting-in-un-jeopardizes-support-for-ukraine)
Over the last few weeks, the question of Israeli support for Ukraine in its fight against Russia has returned to the spotlight.
After many months of ambiguity and silence, rumors circulating in the media suggest that Israel, amid Russia's ravaging brutality and its new alliance with Iran, secretly initiated the first steps to provide Kyiv with defense technologies.

⚡️ Mayor: Explosion reported in Russian-occupied Melitopol.
Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov reported that a local church, which Russian troops had reportedly occupied "several months ago," caught on fire on Dec. 10. He also reported an explosion in the city. Fedorov did not provide additional information.

⚡️More than 1.5 million people without power
(kyivindependent.com/news-feed/more-than-1-5-million-people-without-power-in-odesa-oblast-following-latest-russian-attack)in Odesa Oblast following latest Russian attack.
The situation in Odesa Oblast is extremely difficult following Russia's overnight drone attack with Iranian-made drones, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his evening address on Dec. 10.

⚡️Ukraine finds over 300,000 explosive devices since start of full-scale invasion.

⚡️Russia intensifies (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russia-intensifies-mobilization-in-occupied-parts-of-luhansk-oblast) mobilization in occupied parts of Luhansk Oblast.
In order to bolster its forces fighting near Sievierodonetsk in Ukraine's eastern Luhansk Oblast, Russia has stepped up mobilization in occupied parts of the oblast, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported on Dec. 11. [Hard to imagine there are any grown men left there now]

Washington Post Telegram

—In his first televised interview since his return to Russia following a prisoner swap with American WNBA star Brittney Griner, arms dealer Viktor Bout said he “wholeheartedly” supports the war in Ukraine and would volunteer for the effort if he had the opportunity, Russian state media reported.

— In Ukraine, more than 1.5 million people in the Black Sea port city of Odessa and its surroundings were left without electricity on Saturday, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his daily address, after what he described as a night of strikes by Iranian-made drones.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

The EU calls on Türkiye to change its trade policy towards the Russian Federation and join Western sanctions against the aggressor country imposed for invading Ukraine. The fact that Türkiye refrains from imposing restrictions on Russia is worrying, EU diplomat Josep Borrell said in a letter to the European Parliament.

Russia began to "hide" bombers from Ukraine in the Arctic, — military expert Zhdanov

Russians destroy Ukrainian literature in the occupied territory of the Luhansk region — General Staff
For the past two weeks, the occupiers have been conducting searches in local educational institutions in order to identify and destroy books in the Ukrainian language and materials containing the symbols of Ukraine, the summary reports.

Ukrainian partisans claim responsibility for firing Russian military base in Crimea
“The base of the mobilized army of the Russian Federation in the village of Sovetske in the Ukrainian Crimea is on fire. Our agents worked like clockwork,” the ATESh movement said in a statement.

Live:Ukraine Telegram channel

Germany will give Ukraine 36.5 thousand woolen blankets, which they first wanted to sell at the auction - Welt am Sonntag.
The blankets were intended for the German military, however, due to the lack of need, they will be transferred to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

❗️What is known now about the evening explosions in the temporarily occupied territories.
▪️Tokmak and district - point hit on positions.
▪️Melitopol - point hit on Russian positions + in the recreation center where the Gauleiters were.
▪️Sevastopol - explosion near the airport.
▪️Simferopol - air defense work.
▪️Dzhankoy - point hit on the positions of the Russians.

[picture purpoted to be of a dead Russian soldier's helmet, with a sticker saying Warning, this is a toy]

‼️Kherson has been under massive shelling since the morning

❗️The Telegraph: South African MPs are demanding their government answer whether their country is selling arms to Russia. The request came after information that the Russian ship Lady R was spotted in the naval port of Simons Town unloading and then receiving cargo. The vessel itself is under US and EU sanctions for transporting weapons to Russia.

About Hungary, a thread summary:

twitter.com/EuroSandor/status/1601264508185767941

Sándor Zsíros
@EuroSandor
1/7 Orbán had a bad week with signs of economic meltdown and miscalculations about the fight with the EU. The consequences could be far reaching.

On Monday, Orbán ally, National Bank boss Matolcsy blamed "mistakes" for the weakness of the "vulnerable" economy.

On Tuesday Tuesday Hungary vetoed the EU's 18bln aid plan for Ukraine. As a direct consequence, Ecofin postponed the approval of Hungary's recovery plan + also no decision on the development funds. The veto was seen in Brussels as a show of force in the budget fight.
On Tuesday Tuesday Hungary vetoed the EU's 18bln aid plan for Ukraine. As a direct consequence, Ecofin postponed the approval of Hungary's recovery plan + also no decision on the development funds. The veto was seen in Brussels as a show of force in the budget fight.
On Thursday, statistical office published a record inflation, 22,5 %, for november. This is currently the highest in the EU. Hu currency started to fall after the news. Inflation might rise further, as fuel prices grow 40 percent in one day
Meanwhile the EU is working on a new mechanism to help Ukraine and to bypass the Hungarian veto. If they finish this, Orban loses an important card at the talks. Overall the latest veto could have a boomerang effect for Orban and destroy his credibility in Brussels
On Friday the EU Commission said despite latest anti corruption measures passed in Hungary - their assessment on the conditionality remains unchanged and they want 7,5 bln suspended. A sign that the EU is ready to play hardball
Next weeks #EUCO will be crucial. And everyone in the EU knows the real very grim picture of the Hungarian economy and their needs for funds. In recent years Orban used Brussels as a box bag that never hits back. But this could change suddenly. Watch out for #EUCO next Thursday!

⚡️Ukraine and Germany reached an agreement on the supply of additional weapons, — Ukrainian Ambassador in Berlin Oleksii Makeev said.

"Germany has promised to supply weapons and ammunition. Negotiations are underway to supply modern Leopard 2 tanks," — he said.

Checking in. I've lost track a little bit at the moment but you're all very helpful.