Ukraine Invasion: Part 36

[MagicFox]

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 Thanks as usual to all contributors and lurkers

Checking in 🫡

Konrad Muzyka AT konrad_muzyka
Belarus We're seeing new developments in Belarus, which could have major repercussions for Belarus and Ukraine. Today, Sergei Shoigu arrived in Belarus. The visit was reportedly unannounced. Straight after landing at Machulishchy Air Base, he met his Belarusian counterpart...

Viktor Khrenin and signed amendments to the 1997 treaty on establishing the Union State (changes pertained to the defence and security part of the document). After that, Shiogu met with Lukashenko, who confirmed Belarusians are providing logistics support to Russian units in BLR.

Belarusians also provide instructors to Russians. Both armies train together too. So what does it mean? The text of the amendments was not published, so this is a bit speculative. But it is likely that cooperation between both states will deepen further.

Given the nature of the visit, we'd not be surprised at all if the Belarusian Armed Forces were now fully subordinated to the Russian General Staff or Western MD Command.

The key to understanding these developments is the context within which they are taking place.

We assess that the Belarusian Armed Forces have been preparing to go to war since April-May. Then they started testing the armed forces' capabilities in this regard. They have tested everything from mobilisation to rear support to manoeuvre warfare.

However, these tests were on a very small scale. Minsk has created several territorial defence battalions, but they are companies, maybe even smaller formations. On the other hand, Minsk has also been checking the accuracy of address data for citizens liable for military service

Draft notices will also be delivered through SMS.

Khernin announced last week changes in the law, probably on mobilisation. (Maybe after Shoigu's visit they may pertain to something else). Regardless, we assess that amendments will have a profound impact.

We assess that there is too much going on in Belarus ...

To explain these actions as just fixing attempts to tie up Ukrainian forces near the border with Belarus. This could have been achieved at a much smaller cost. We do not know what the future holds, but one cannot
exclude an attack on Ukraine from Belarus, or a significant Belarusian military involvement in the war. I'd say there is roughly even chance this will happen over the next few months

@RedToothBrush it is very worrying development if Belarus were to enter the war. I wonder whether this has anything to do with the recent 'sudden death' of the pro-West, Russia-critical Belarus foreign minister Vladimir Makei. Could that have been interpreted as a signal by Russia that it will no longer be fobbed off by Lukashenko, so Lukashenko has now run out of road and has to commit to the war.

Checking in and many thanks to the regulars who keep us so well informed.

Belarus is ....well, this looks grim

The Chairman of the Supreme Court of Belarus, Valentin Sukalo, is in intensive care.

Doctors are fighting to save his life.

Opposition leader Kolesnikova is also in intensive care after being taken there from prison.

Foreign Minister Makiev died suddenly a few days ago.

From Visigrad24

Thanks for the new thread. Disturbing news on Belarus.

Pure coincidence or perhaps that is what happens, Lukashenko, when you dance with the devil.

@MissConductUS

Thanks for the WSJ piece..

[tangent, water under the bridge, geek stuff]

“Within hours of a missile landing less than 5 miles inside Poland, the U.S. had determined that the strike was the result of a Ukrainian missile-defense munition, using signals, radar and other intelligence, U.S. defense officials said.”

I’m still not at all sure that points to AWACS involvement.

There were none visible on the ADS trackers in theatre in the time window that night (I know they don’t always have to be, but they usually are, especially when in transit to/from station through civvie airspace). OTOH several tankers were showing and I think of more relevance a Rivett Joint, which is certainly a high value asset, was pinging away loud and clear on ADS for several hours in station to the south of the area of interest.

My best guess about all this would be on the “radar” data being quite possibly from the US Army Patriot batteries in theatre who would have very much had an interest in something heading for Poland, especially anything on a ballistic trajectory.

The sigint could well have been sourced in part from the Rivett Joint which we do know was there….the rest, who knows.. humint, etc…? Does it now matter? Will we ever know?

The politics side of the story is interesting and quite understandable….and perhaps shows the value of having people in office who do not rush to judgement, which many on another thread were doing that night.

[/tangent, water under the bridge, geek stuff]

ATB…

Thank you for the new thread @MagicFox

Hope and strength to all Ukrainians, seems like some bites of.good news is coming through.

If Belarus get involved is there any chance Poland would step in to help Ukraine or would that be vetoed by NATO? And if they did I suppose the Kremlin would see Poland as fair game for their missiles.
Would NATO insist Ukraine didn't bomb Belarus?

If Lukashenko pushes ahead with this surely there's a good chance that the people will revolt, he's only clinging onto power thanks to Putin - although maybe that's one of the reasons there's a large Russian military presence in Belarus to violently suppress any uprising.
It's awful that Ukraine could be left alone to fight two countries whilst being told not to retaliate with missiles on the aggressors land.
Putin doesn't seem to give a fuck about starting WWIII.

Pmk

Analysts don’t tend to think that Belarusian troops would make any material difference to the success of the invasion and in terms of staging for artillery its already being used so no change. NATO won’t engage any differently I wouldn’t imagine.

I also don’t actually agree that Putin doesn’t care about starting WW3, I think he does and is being very careful with setting red lines and escalating/deescalating when he feels it’s prudent. I suspect after the Polish missile incident there was some fairly fevered back channel diplomacy to try and reduce tensions.

I think if Belarus do get involved it will be a gross mistake as I can’t see the Belarusian people being too pleased about it.

Back in March when the Russians were bogged down on the road to Kiev there were several reports of attacks on supply infrastructure in Belarus by Belarusian partisans.
I don't know how credible those reports were but I imagine that if Belarus march south it could well stir up a hornets nest at home for them

Thanks for that measured response Igotjelly, I hope you're right.
Although I can't help but feel that a second army joining Russia, plus another mobilisation in the new year, will be difficult to counter, sheer weight of numbers (single use soldiers) sent into battle has to count for something.

For those like me in need of a boost this morning this thread from Brynn Tanneshill, a former naval aviator is well worth reading & draws together a lot of the positives:

https://twitter.com/brynntannehill/status/1599061568259751937?s=61&t=zHZMjv6GeWK2qJmctCMqpw

I haven't tweeted about Ukraine in a while, and the battlefield has been (relatively) static for almost a month, but there are things happening that signal long term direction, most of it favoring Ukraine.

I think Belarus’ army is only about 60k with a reserve force of something like 300k. I’d imagine they’re in much the same state as Russia’s too in terms of being impacted by years of underfunding and corruption.

How would Belarus not have a material impact on the war? How many troops are we talking? Where would they be deployed? The hotspots or used as a distraction to divert Ukraine troops?

If they do join, I hope the allies respond accordingly at the very least with another increase in weapon supply, intelligence and aid. I feel like Belarus has been phased in under our noses rather than making a grand entrance which could have provoked the allies. Now our analysts seem to be shrugging their shoulders saying it won't make a material difference. Clever management from Russia.

Sorry I crossed posts with a few PPs there

I would caveat my response with not being a military analyst in the slightest, just regurgitating what actual analysts have been saying!

I am still concerned about the mobiks. Many people say they are badly trained, equipped etc but only a proportion of them were apparently sent to the front lines. No one seems to know for certain but this is what I've seen from some not-ill-informed quarters. The rest are being overwintered and trained and there are rumours now of a second mobilization in Spring.

However badly trained and unenthusiastic, that many bodies is going to be a threat. Belorus joining in is going to be another threat.

@DesdamonasHandkerchief thanks for the feel good thread from Brynn Tanneshill. That is a welcome boost.

Just when you think Wagner couldn't be any more depraved 🤦‍♀️ a thread about the 'cock' battalion of raped 'untouchables':

twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/1599360352403087360?s=61&t=zHZMjv6GeWK2qJmctCMqpw

Wagner are getting together a battalion of the ' wildest of the wildest'. The worst of the worst. The sort of people that when they die, everyone around them sighs in great relief.

There's nothing they won't do. God help Ukraine.

Truly depraved

I can't say anymore