Ukraine Invasion: Part 36

[MagicFox]

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 Thanks as usual to all contributors and lurkers

Worth listening to the latest Battleground Ukraine podcast. In it they interview Sir Mike Jackson, former head of the British Army, and he speaks well to the point around sheer numbers from Russia.

Just wanting to say thank you for the stream of reliable updates to all contributing. This thread is my go to for info. @DrBlackbird

Yvw! It does take a little time to do each day but I'm very glad that people here find it worthwhile

Yes, thank you, this thread is the first thing I look at every morning. Much appreciated 🌷

Also full of thanks ⭐️

Same here. It's like my day can't function without the @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar updates

Obviously find everyone else's posts very helpful too I just meant the takeaways especially.

The Sun (I know, I know) reports that Sunak has announced the decision to send Challenger 2s, four immediately, then eight more. Let's hope this is the kick in the backside the Germans need to approve the Leopard 2s for export to Ukraine.

TANKS, RISHI Rishi Sunak pledges to send tank squadron to Ukraine ahead of a spring offensive

Today's update of what is going on along the fronts from a Russian side source. I'm particularly interested in what Wagner is doing compared to regular forces (or Chechens, what Chechens) and the fact that units are named (which Ukrainian sources won't do).

To be taken with a pinch of salt, or in a salt mine.

vk.com/video517558194_456255833

Wagner 1 and 2

I remain interested in the Two Wagners. We see captured all-sorts from Wagner 2 from Ukrainian sources. They lack motivation, have come from prison etc. and were probably sent forward to die.

Fair enough. But Wagner 1 is certainly functioning and without a doubt making progress in the Soledar/Bakhmut area the past few days. Now, it might be that Wagner 1 types don't provide a feed of Wagner 2 activities as a matter of policy. However, there are images and videos of the traditional Wagner 1 type mercenaries operating on the ground. They seem well equipped, if sometimes without body armour, and carry themselves with confidence. There aren't regular Russian forces in their videos as far as I can tell, but there are dead Ukrainians. A lot of dead Ukrainians.

Mercenary contractors are clearly playing a key role in the Bakhmut area operations. They are not going to post videos of their setbacks, but they have certainly had local successes.

I'm not posting images of / links to some of the things I have seen as they are gruesome. It's Hell.

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-13-2023

Key Takeaways

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on January 13 that Russian forces seized Soledar on the evening of January 12.

The MoD’s initial announcement (which did not mention the Wagner Group) sparked a significant backlash within the Russian information space, forcing the MoD to issue a second announcement crediting Wagner.

Prigozhin likely seeks to use the victory in Soledar as a bargaining tool to elevate his authority in Russia.

Putin may be taking measures to cultivate a cadre of milbloggers loyal to Putin and the Russian MoD to undermine Prigozhin’s effort to elevate himself.

High-ranking Ukrainian officials continue to forecast an intensification of Ukrainian and Russian operations in the spring of 2023 and that a Russian offensive from Belarus remains unlikely.

Russian officials’ responses to Russians who have fled abroad risks dividing the Kremlin and the ultra-nationalist pro-war community even further.

Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly ordered Russian occupation officials to deport Ukrainian children to Russia under medical relocation schemes.

Russian forces conducted limited counterattacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line while Ukrainian forces reportedly continued counteroffensive operations near Kreminna.

Russian forces continued offensive operations around Soledar, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka.

Ukrainian Intelligence reported that Russian forces seek to raise personnel numbers to two million by an unspecified date.

Ukrainian partisan attacks continue to divert Russian resources away from the frontline to rear areas in occupied territories.

Kyiv INdep Telegram

⚡️Bloomberg: Germany to give final decision (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/bloomberg-germany-to-give-final-decision-on-leopard-tank-delivery-to-ukraine-next-week) on Leopard tank delivery to Ukraine next week.
According to the unnamed German officials cited, Berlin will decide ahead of the Ramstein defense summit on Jan. 20. The day before the gathering, German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht will meet with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. [yesterday]

⚡️Media: German defense minister to resign (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/media-german-defense-minister-to-resign).
Germany’s defense minister Christine Lambrecht plans to resign, German media reported on Feb. 13, citing a German government source, causing uncertainty at a time when Germany is weighing sending battle tanks to Ukraine.

⚡️ Ukraine intelligence: Russia tries to build (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraine-intelligence-russia-tries-to-build-2-million-strong-army) 2-million strong army through waves of mobilization.
Ukraine’s military intelligence previously said that Russia plans to launch a new wave of mobilization of 500,000 conscripts for the war against Ukraine on Jan. 15.

⚡️ French Defense Ministry Sebastien Lecornu confirmed (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/france-to-deliver-light-wheeled-tanks-to-ukraine-within-2-months) that French-made AMX-10 RC combat vehicles would be sent within two months after a phone conversation with Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov on Jan. 12.

⚡️ French general: Ukraine carried out (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/french-general-ukraine-carried-out-cyber-defense-revolution) 'cyber defense revolution.'
Ukraine could have been “brought to its knees,” he said, as cyberattacks can be used to weaken the state permanently, but this “did not happen.”

⚡️Reuters: Germany says it didn’t receive (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/reuters-germany-says-it-didnt-receive-leopard-tanks-request-from-poland-finland) Leopard tanks request from Poland, Finland.
Polish President Andrzej Duda announced the delivery of a company of modern German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine on Jan. 11. Since the tanks are produced in Germany, the approval of the German government is required for their export.

⚡️US official : Over 2,000 Ukrainian children abducted (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/us-official-over-2-000-ukrainian-children-abducted-by-russia-since-new-year) by Russia since New Year.
As of Dec. 22, 2022, Ukrainian authorities said that more than 13,000 thousand children were forcibly removed from Ukraine by Russia.

Belarus Weekly: Nobel Peace Prize laureate on trial in Belarus (kyivindependent.com/regional/belarus-weekly-minsk-moscow-increase-joint-military-task-force)
The trial against Belarusian Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski, the founder of human rights watchdog Viasna, began on Jan. 5.

⚡️Ukrainian state defense company completes (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukrainian-state-defense-company-completes-testing-long-range-strike-drone) testing of long-range strike drone.
The project to develop an unmanned aerial vehicle with a range of more than 1,000 kilometers and a payload of up to 75 kilograms “has reached such a stage that, unfortunately, we cannot talk about it,” Nataliia Sad, Ukroboronprom spokesperson, said.

⚡️Explosions reported (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/explosions-reported-in-berdiansk-occupation-government-officials-car-allegedly-blown-up) in Berdiansk, occupation government official's car allegedly blown up

⚡️Official: EU to evaluate (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/official-eu-to-evaluate-ukraines-eu-accession-progress-in-spring-and-fall-of-2023) Ukraine's EU accession progress in spring and fall of 2023.

⚡️US: Russia's deliberate slowdown of inspections delaying grain shipments (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/us-russias-deliberate-slowdown-of-inspections-delaying-grain-shipments-from-ukraine) from Ukraine.
Russia's continued blocking of Ukraine's Black Sea ports and deliberate slowdown of ship inspections are delaying crucial grain shipments around the world, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, said on Jan. 13. [this was mentioned a few weeks ago too]

⚡️Foreign Ministry: Zelensky wants to visit UN (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/foreign-ministry-zelensky-wants-to-visit-un-on-the-eve-of-russias-full-scale-invasion-anniversary) on the eve of Russia’s full-scale invasion anniversary.
President Volodymyr Zelensky wants to visit the United Nations headquarters in New York to address the General Assembly on the eve of Feb. 24, First Deputy Foreign Minister Emine Dzhaparova told the Associated Press on Jan. 14.

⚡️Governor: Russia hits critical infrastructure (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/governor-russia-hits-critical-infrastructure-in-lviv-oblast) in Lviv Oblast.
The hit could affect electricity and water supply in the oblast, Kozytskyi said.

Washington Post Telegram

— Russia and Ukraine disputed control of the eastern salt mining town of Soledar, with the Kremlin claiming to have seized it after a bloody battle even as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky asserted that his forces were continuing to fight.

—Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will meet his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amirabdollahian in Moscow on Jan. 17. Iran has emerged as a key weapons supplier to Russia during the invasion and Iranian drones have been used to target energy infrastructure in Ukraine

Ukraine liberated Kherson city. Now, Russia is destroying it.

(www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/14/kherson-destroyed-russia-ukraine-liberated/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)
KHERSON, Ukraine — Four charred baby cribs were all that was left in the maternity ward’s bomb shelter.

The rest of the room was destroyed when Russian forces attacked the city, striking one of the only hospitals in Kherson where babies can still be delivered.

Residents who survived nine months of Russian occupation say that now that their city is back under Ukrainian control, they face a painful reality: If Russia can no longer have the city, it seems hellbent on destroying it.

The strike on Tomchenko’s hospital marked at least the fifth time Russian forces hit a medical facility in Kherson city since December.

One attack hit a different maternity ward 20 minutes after a baby was born, and this week, another struck the city’s children’s hospital. Russian forces are also shelling other civilian infrastructure. In recent weeks, they hit a market, a museum and many homes. Dozens were killed and more than 150 wounded.

No updated Russian losses released today so far.

Popping out of my hole now we're at the 90s stage to post the link to the next thread before we lose anybody: Ukraine Invasion: Part 37 www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4719990-ukraine-invasion-part-37

FWIW here’s a French language report that amongst other things covers the provision of AMX-10RC.

www.opex360.com/2023/01/13/les-chars-legers-amx-10rc-promis-a-lukraine-par-la-france-seront-livres-dans-les-deux-mois/

I’ll let Google translate do the heavy lifting but on the specific issue of timescale it’s down to the phasing of it’s replacement, Jaguar, and also the training of Ukrainian crew which is being done in France.

Most definitely worthwhile. Thanks @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

It seems the reports of the Swiss looking at their export rules again comes from the gutter press, so it might need to be filed under the same category as the Mirror's "apache helicopters".