Ukraine Invasion: Part 36

[MagicFox]

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 Thanks as usual to all contributors and lurkers

it could mean that they will only use them if American forces are in combat, ie if the USA ground itself is attacked (seems unlikely, but) or if the US troops are fighting somewhere.

The US Army has specifically been trying to get rid of the older Reapers for some years, though, so they don't actually want them for when they are in combat themselves: they want the new tech ones. (And if the tech for the older ones has not already been stolen I am quite surprised anyway.)

This is the best coverage of the issue that I can find.

The Air Force wants to send its Reaper drones to Ukraine. The Pentagon’s not so sure.

The difficulty seems to be a Raytheon electro/optical sensor that is considered quite sensitive even on the older models.

The other consideration is that these drones were never intended to be used in an environment with active air defenses. The Ukrainians had to discontinue most use of the Bayraktar drones for the same reason.

Comment from Release...Ducks...

I find the cancelling of the December press conferences quite significant. It strongly implies something has gone very wrong, whether that's his health, the reported growing unease in Russia, factional problems or something else.

It is odd. There's a sham cycle in Russia where the rulers work their way through the calendar, adding in elections when necessary. Putin strikes me as being in a bad way in terms of health and temper. However, his condition seems to fluctuate. It might be that when he has good days he can release clips that paint him in a not so bad light.

Thanks for the info, much appreciated.

FWIW this link leads to a story about what can happen if you are careless with sensitive kit and Russian assets are around...

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manfred_Ramminger

Thank you! That makes it rather more clear to me.

Thank you! That makes it rather more clear to me.

You're most welcome, I'm sure. 😁I learn a great deal on this thread, so I'm pleased when I can illuminate things for others.

I don't think this has been mentioned yet, but it's a prime example of how Ukraine shapes the battlefield in preparation for an offensive. I think we'll see offensive activity pick up sharply at the end of the month or in early January. They'll want to start before more mobiks arrive in the spring and while the RU forces are focused on survival.

Ukrainian forces damage key bridge near Melitopol, reports say - Supply lines to Russian troops likely to be affected after bridge over Molochna River partly collapsed

The goal is to disrupt Ru supply lines in southern Ukraine and Crimea. Another attack on the Kerch Bridge wouldn't surprise me a bit.

Patriot systems likely going to Ukraine

edition.cnn.com/2022/12/13/politics/us-patriot-missile-defense-system-ukraine/index.html

This is good news and not completely unexpected. The challenge is what will happen when they break down. Operator training is several months, technician training is a year, and that's with manufacturer's support techs on call or available to make more complex repairs.

Hopefully US mechanics based in Poland .... ?

That will probably be the approach. The vehicles are normally not the problem. it's the radars, satellite links, fire control systems, etc. that will need attention. So think IT geeks, not mechanics.

@notimagain, here's a bit of evidence supporting the idea that Ukraine attacked those airbases with TU-141s.

twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1602684585157984257

They may well have had troops being trained with them for the best part of a year now. I would hazard a guess that the troops are trained on the equipment well before any announcements are made, and that these are only made when the troops are ready to use them and logistics are in place.

We know Ukrainian troops have been training with other countries for many months, it makes sense that these would be included. Their troops should have been learning to operate all sorts of equipment and in all weathers in preparation. They are thinking and planning ahead.

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates
Key Takeaways

Belarusian forces remain unlikely to attack Ukraine despite a snap Belarusian military readiness check on December 13.

Ukrainian officials continue to assess that Belarus is unlikely to attack Ukraine as of December 13.

Senior Israeli officials stated that Iran seeks to limit the range of missiles it plans to provide to Russia in order to avoid triggering UN "snapback" sanctions.

Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russian forces are striking Ukraine with missiles that Ukraine transferred to Russia in the 1990s as part of an international agreement by which Russia recognized Crimea and all of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts as part of Ukraine and committed not to threaten or attack Ukraine.

US officials stated on December 13 that the Pentagon is finalizing plans to send Patriot missile defense systems to Ukraine.

Russia continues to use concepts of terrorism as a legal framework for domestic repression.

Russian forces conducted limited counterattacks near Svatove and Kreminna.

Russian forces made marginal advances within Bakhmut and continued ground assaults near Avdiivka and Vuhledar.

Russian forces may be withdrawing from certain areas south of the Dnipro River as they continue fortifying rear positions in occupied Kherson Oblast.

Likely Ukrainian actors downed a bridge in Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast amid increased reports of Ukrainian strikes against Russian military assets near Melitopol within the past few days.

The Wagner Group is continuing efforts to use recruits from Russian prisoners to generate combat power.

+++

Kyiv Indep Telegram

⚡️ Russia rules out (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russia-rules-out-withdrawal-from-ukraine-by-end-of-2022) withdrawal from Ukraine by end of 2022.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Dec. 13 that Kyiv needs to accept new territorial “realities,” dismissing a peace proposal by President Volodymyr Zelensky that would include the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine.

⚡️Poll: 85% of Ukrainians believe (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/poll-85-of-ukrainians-believe-victory-in-war-with-russia-requires-liberating-all-territories-including-crimea-and-donbas) victory in war with Russia requires liberating all territories, including Crimea and Donbas.

⚡️Zelensky calls on West (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zelensky-calls-on-west-to-allocate-843-million-to-support-ukraines-critical-infrastructure-in-winter) to allocate $843 million to support Ukraine’s critical infrastructure in winter.

⚡️Allies pledge (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/allies-pledge-over-1-billion-to-support-ukraine-throughout-winter) over $1 billion to support Ukraine throughout winter.
French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna announced that some 70 countries and international organizations will be involved in allocating funds.

⚡️Parliament approves bill to protect ethnic minorities.
The Verkhovna Rada on Dec. 13 approved (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/parliament-approves-bill-to-protect-national-minorities) a bill to protect ethnic minorities in Ukraine - a requirement for accession to the European Union.
The bill describes who will be considered ethnic minorities in Ukraine, establishes their rights and obligations, and provides for the creation of advisory bodies with representatives of minorities.

The Kyiv Independent is partnering with Saint Javelin, the team behind the iconic symbol of Ukraine’s resistance and a social enterprise that donated over $2 million to Ukraine. Together, we are launching a merch collection. (www.saintjavelin.com/pages/kyiv-independent-x-saint-javelin-exclusive-collection)

⚡️UPDATE: Zelensky signs law to liquidate Ukraine's most notorious court (kyivindependent.com/national/parliament-approves-liquidating-ukraines-most-notorious-court)
President Volodymyr Zelensky on Dec. 13 signed into law a bill to liquidate the Kyiv District Administrative Court, headed by Ukraine's most scandalous judge Pavlo Vovk.

Ukraine war latest: US plans to send Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine, officials say (kyivindependent.com/national/ukraine-war-latest-us-plans-to-send-patriot-missile-defense-system-to-ukraine-officials-say)
The Patriot system is one of the most capable long-range weapons to protect airspace against incoming ballistic and cruise missiles and some aircraft. It can’t defend against low-flying or small drones that fly closer to the ground.

⚡️Official: Ukraine launches production of 152-mm, 122-mm projectiles.

⚡️Experts: Parliament derails Ukraine's European integration by passing Constitutional Court bill.
(kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/constitutional-court)
The Verkhovna Rada on Dec. 13 approved a bill on the Constitutional Court that may deal a blow to Ukraine's European integration prospects and allow the president to fully control the court, legal experts say.
By voting for this bill, you are not only disrupting European integration but also enabling the usurpation of power," Mykhailo Zhernakov, head of legal think-tank Dejure, wrote on Facebook, addressing the lawmakers.

⚡️Prime minister: Ukraine’s GDP may halve if Russian attacks on infrastructure continue.

⚡️ Parliament approves agreement (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/parliament-approves-agreement-allowing-to-launch-bayraktar-production-in-ukraine) allowing to launch Bayraktar production in Ukraine.

⚡️ Zelensky commends air defense after it takes down all 13 drones that attack Kyiv on the morning of Dec. 14.

Live Ukraine Telegram

🇩🇪Germany will continue to supply weapons to Ukraine, but no new types of weapons are planned - German government representative for Euractiv.

💡The European Commission will finance up to 30 million LED lamps for Ukraine to help the country with energy saving, - the press service of the European Commission.

Switzerland will provide Ukraine with a new aid package worth almost $100 million, - President of Switzerland Ignacio Cassis.
"This package will help solve the problems of this winter. And next year, Switzerland will invest in the restoration of energy facilities, schools and hospitals."

Ukrspecsystems has updated its Shark reconnaissance drone. The company reported that the drone received a more powerful battery that doubles the flight time, as well as extended wings. Their span was increased to 3.4 meters. The updated Shark will soon be delivered to the Armed Forces.

Norway plans to approve a multi-year program of support for Ukraine, - Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre

⚡️All EU countries supported the provision of 18 billion euros of assistance to Ukraine
During this year, the European Union, its member states and its financial institutions have provided more than 19 billion euros. We are looking at the next year, and I have very good news, because last night we managed to agree on 18 billion euros for Ukraine, 1.5 billion euros per month is a constant flow of direct budget support, - the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen said.
Earlier, this decision was blocked by Hungary. But now it has lifted its veto in exchange for the unfreezing of part of the money intended for it from the European Union.

Italian Senate approves arms supply to Ukraine in 2023 - La Repubblica.

France is ready to provide 100 million euros to rebuild Ukraine's infrastructure - bridges and tracks, French President Emmanuel Macron said at a bilateral business conference on resilience and reconstruction of Ukraine in Par

Ukraine may receive 30 more T-72 tanks modernized in the Czech Republic in 2023, - Novinky CZ.
Earlier, these tanks were contracted by an African country, but it agreed to leave them for Ukraine.

‼️Reuters: Despite sanctions, Western countries continue to supply microchips to Russia. From April to November, the United States and a number of European countries supplied Russia with chips worth $777 million. For this purpose, shell companies were created in Turkey and Hong Kong.

The United States has found no signs of weapons in Ukraine falling into the wrong hands, - Pentagon spokesman Patrick Ryder.

‼️Russians attacked the center of Kherson with multiple rocket launchers. The shells hit the building of the Regional Military Administration, two floors were damaged. According to preliminary information, there are no casualties - said Deputy Head of the OP Kyrylo Tymoshenko

UNITED24 Media Telegram

The occupiers carry out rotations in the Kherson direction, — the General Staff. In addition, Russians continue to use medical and sanatorium facilities as hospitals. Thus, in Luhansk, one of the buildings of the maternity hospital was converted into a hospital, and in Melitopol, a military hospital was set up in the premises of a children's sanatorium. Medical personnel from the Russian Federation have been brought in to assist the occupiers.

⚡️Energy "Ramstein" began in Paris: Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal has already discussed the demilitarization of the ZNPP with IAEA Director General Grossi. He also said that the IAEA would send permanent missions to all nuclear power plants in Ukraine.

There is an agreement on the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine and negotiations are underway on the conditions, said French President Emmanuel Macron.

[plenty of contradictory info about the ZPP floating around!]

The Chinese government has banned the supply of Loongson processors based on its own LoongArch architecture to the Russian Federation.

Already the second military satellite of the Russian Federation, burned out in the Earth's atmosphere, without having worked even 2 months

The EU General Affairs Ministers agreed that Bosnia should become an official candidate for EU membership. EU leaders plan to accept this recommendation on 15 December.

Canada handed over 15 8-meter lighting masts to Ukraine
They will be used in the repair of power facilities at night. In total, before the New Year, Ukraine will receive 50 such towers from Canada.

⚡️Russia wants to restore the possibility of holding another "big offensive" by the end of January-February – Foreign Minister Kuleba

The Armed Forces of Ukraine confirmed the destruction of the leadership of the 58th Army of Russia in Melitopol
Also, in the areas of the settlements of Enerhodar, Tokmak, and Hyliaypole, three artillery installations and about 10 pieces of equipment of the invaders were destroyed.

⚡️ More than $150,000 was raised in Georgia for generators for Ukraine, – Novosti-Georgia.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz believes that the transformation of Ukraine into a strong European state with sustainable industry and agriculture is a prerequisite for a strong Europe

EU countries have decided to postpone the decision to limit the price of Russian natural gas until next week — Bloomberg
A group of countries led by Germany during the discussion called for a more thorough study of the issue of pricing.
According to German Economy Minister Robert Habek, the countries agreed on 90-95% of what was discussed, but important decisions will be made at the next meeting on December 19.

23,000 prisoners have already been recruited into the Wagner PMC — Resistance Center

Ukrainians face issues with verification on Twitter
Ukrainian users complain about problems with two-factor authentication — they stopped receiving SMS codes, and the phone code of Ukraine was completely removed from the Twitter database.
Elon Musk has not yet responded to calls to claify the situation.
[this is hugely problematic and very concerning. the media war is very important]

🧑‍⚖️ The UK is training Ukrainian judges to conduct war crimes trials by the Russian military

Washington Post Telegram

On east front with Ukrainian troops: Constant shelling, no heat or coffee

(www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/07/kremmina-luhansk-eastern-front-ukraine/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)NEAR KREMINNA, Ukraine — Deep in the forest and less than a mile from enemy Russian positions, the sound of incoming artillery landing nearby thunders every few minutes. The landscape is littered with unexploded ordnance, so the Ukrainian soldiers don’t dare step anywhere they have not before. They pack light because they might be on the move quickly — forward, they hope.
In their cramped, hastily dug mud outpost, they apologize that they only have tea — no room for coffee.
A commander manning one of Ukraine’s forward-most positions did not flinch at the roar of shells crashing close by as he zoomed in on his tablet to show how Kyiv’s forces in the area have advanced within five miles of Kreminna — an occupied stronghold for the Russian military and potential gateway for the Ukrainian forces as they press into the eastern Luhansk region.

• Dozens of countries pledged more than $1 billion in additional aid to Ukraine at a conference in Paris on Tuesday, offering short-term support for Ukraine’s energy network and other civilian infrastructure, as the country faces a difficult winter.

• Over $440 million of the total aid pledged is expected to be directed to Ukraine’s energy network. French officials said the final amount would likely rise.

• A U.S. shipment of power equipment worth $13 million was on its way to Ukraine on Tuesday, with a handover expected in Poland, as part of the Biden administration’s efforts to help rebuild Ukraine’s battered electrical grid.

• U.S. and Russian officials will discuss efforts to free Whelan this week, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said in a briefing Monday, adding that U.S. officials have been in frequent communication with Russia about securing Whelan’s release.

Large personnel losses again. These must be the blow up barracks numbers, which indicates that perhaps something else was happening two days ago as there were 500 or so dead yesterday. 96,000 dead overall, if the Ukrainian numbers are right ...

British Marines were involved in covert operations in Ukraine. This was confirmed by Lieutenant General of the Royal Navy of Great Britain Rob Magowan, writes The Times.

In particular, 350 servicemen helped evacuate the British Embassy from Kyiv to Poland at the beginning of the full-scale war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine, and in April infantrymen joined the bodyguards in the Ukrainian capital.

Magowan added that the Marines supported "covert operations in a very sensitive environment" that carried "a high level of political and military risk."

The Times notes that in this way the British troops admitted their participation in the operation in Ukraine for the first time.

Arg, the Losses list was from a day ago. Here's the updated to today version, sorry.

Protection of embassy staff and other assets - Not really surprising TBH and I'm sure other nations will have done similar...

I think so too. I do wonder if there will eventually be news of a single or tiny handful of foreign military Suggesters (I wouldn't dare use the word Advisor) helping the Ukrainian generals.

There is a group in the Pentagon doing exactly that. I saw one unconfirmed report that it was this group that first advocated for the offensive in Kharkiv. The Ua general staff was originally skeptical, then came around after war gaming it with the US.

I don't think that we have any snake eaters special forces on the ground, embedded with Ukrainian units.

Quite a few sources reporting this. It's so awful I'm having difficulty believing it's true:

⚡️Ombudsman: Children's torture chamber found in liberated Kherson.

Ukrainian authorities discovered a room that Russians used to detain and torture children during the occupation of Kherson, Dmytro Lubinets, the Human Rights Commissioner of the Verkhovna Rada, said on Dec. 14.

According to testimonies from locals, other torture victims in the facility knew that Ukrainian children had been kept there by Russian security services, who had called the room “a children's cell.”

twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1603037980817506315?s=46&t=LMsrCg3mwhysq_sJCgcvWw

I can't bear this. The Kyiv Independent have been a bit up and down lately so let's hope you're right and it really is too horrible to be true. So many times this year I find it hard to accept that this is reality in 2022, it's like we're in a time slip and we've gone back to a world we thought could never exist anymore

This story was circulating on twitter at least a fortnight ago.

I forget who I originally saw it with but I am not sure it was the Kyiv Independent. Could have been, but I don't think it was. I think it may have been another Ukrainian news outlet.

It's sickening.

There is such an absolute sickness in Russians I despair of them and wonder if they have any humanity.

This link is a "joke" from a member of their parliament.

Sick, sick fucker.

twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1603054456706568192?s=46&t=afKajwj5YeC-SbsWBk6Ygg

the propoganda is ramping up again. Lots of tweets about Mrs Zelensky shopping in Paris. No source but lots of BREAKING and Apparently....

Shared by that vile wannabe UN diplomat. I don't know what the story is but it is grotesquely fascinating to see how things like this are spread and commented on then become "fact"

RedToothBrush · Today 17:07

Re, the news of the torture chamber for children,

I forget who I originally saw it with but I am not sure it was the Kyiv Independent. Could have been, but I don't think it was. I think it may have been another Ukrainian news outlet.

I think I saw something about this too, and it may have been on our television news.

It is just so horrible to think what they have all been through.

As for the politician who made this remark about the captured, disabled, Ukrainian little’s girl’s wish, what a loathsome low life he is. And that is not othering. Given his position in life, his office means he has no right to say that sort of thing.

twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1603054456706568192?s=46&t=afKajwj5YeC-SbsWBk6Ygg

Such beings are not human in my view. They have lost their soul.