Ukraine Invasion: Part 36

[MagicFox]

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 Thanks as usual to all contributors and lurkers

ꑭ Natalïa ꑭ
@NatalieSmal
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The #UK is considering transferring Challenger 2 tanks to #Ukraine, Sky News reports citing sources.

London can transfer about 10 of these tanks.

Here's a link to the WSJ editorial I mentioned earlier on the budget situation. There is broad support for higher defense spending in both parties. I don't know what is going to give here, but promises in politics are notoriously volatile. And now the McCarthy is speaker, he can cut deals and the far right won't have enough votes to replace him, so he holds the cards now. Jim Jordan is one of the congressional members who held up McCarthy's election to Speaker.

Defense Is Now a Republican Target - Jim Jordan confirms that Kevin McCarthy put the U.S. military on the budget block.

By The Editorial Board
Jan. 8, 2023 3:59 pm ET

As we reported Saturday, Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s deal with GOP dissenters puts defense spending on the chopping block. No less than Rep. Jim Jordan, spiritual leader of the House Freedom Caucus, confirmed this in response to a question from host Shannon Bream on Fox News Sunday.

“We got a $32 trillion debt. Everything has to be on the table,” Mr. Jordan said. He said the Pentagon should focus on money for the troops and cut the general staff.

“Maybe if we focused on that, helping the troops who do so much of the work out there for our great country, and maybe focus on getting rid of all the woke policies in our military, we’d have the money we need to make sure our troops get the pay raise they deserve, we have the weapons systems and the training that needs to be done, so we’re ready to deal with our adversaries around the planet, that’s what we want to focus on,” Mr. Jordan said.

If Congress wants to cut general officer and PR jobs, and reform military healthcare and pensions, by all means go for it. The latter two are where some money is, but neither is likely to happen this Congress. Woke training is a matter of culture, not money.

The reality is that if defense is cut, what will go first is spending for operations and maintenance to sustain military readiness, as well as money for the weapons to deter China. If the GOP rebels honor their demand for “regular order,” defense hawks may have more votes. But it’s worrisome that some Republicans are joining the progressive calls to shrink the military when the world grows more dangerous.

Not to monopolize the thread, but the Pentagon announced that they are training 500 Ukrainian soldiers a month on the Bradley M2A2.

mobile.twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1612284774248218624

That's the first mention of which Bradley is being sent (it's the upgraded one). The 500 troops per month means that there are many, many more Bradleys on the way beyond the 50 in the first lot.

This is no doubt part of the battalion-level combined arms training that is going on.

Promise of armour and combined-arms training to Ukraine point to new phase in Russia war

Combined arms training will prepare the UAF for offensive operations and teach them how to integrate modern armor assets with infantry, logistics, intelligence, artillery, etc. There is clearly an offensive coming.

it's not spamming, it's useful and interesting info!

I need to find the tweet again (ChrisO_wiki), but there's a telegram rumour going around that Russian soldiers who refuse to fight will be put into a punishment battalion and stuck under Wagner's command. Given the reported conditions for prisoners mobilised with them, this will be hellish.

Russia's had punishment battalions since the beginning of the war (nowt new there), but if they are handing refuseniks to Wagner it means:

A) Wagner's burning through mobiks faster than expected and;
B) There must be more contract soldiers refusing than expected.

In effect, Russia is handing it's infantry a choice; fight and die or be sent to Wagner, raped, then be sent forward to die.

Possibly of interest, there's a documentary about Bellingcat on Al Jazeera on Thur 12 Jan 8pm.
"Bellingcat - Truth in a Post-Truth World."

ISW Key Takeaways

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin continues to use reports of Wagner Group success in Soledar to bolster the Wagner Group’s reputation as an effective fighting force.

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to open the door for further institutionalized corruption in Russia through domestic legislative manipulations.

Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev likely gauged the willingness of the Russian information space for the censorship of figures deemed as pro-Ukrainian sympathizers, garnering some acceptance from the nationalist milblogger community.

Russian and Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line.

Ukrainian partisans may be targeting Russian critical ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in rear areas of Luhansk Oblast.

Russian forces conducted ground attacks across the Donetsk Oblast frontline and made gains around Soledar and Bakhmut.

Russian forces continued to reinforce positions on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast.

Russian forces continued to construct defensive fortifications and transport military equipment in Zaporizhia Oblast amid continued concerns over a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive in the area.

Russian and Ukrainian sources indicated that a second wave of mobilization may be imminent or ongoing.

+++

Kyiv Indep Telegram

⚡️Ukrainian military: ‘Fierce battle’ rages (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukrainian-military-fierce-battle-rages-in-soledar-with-22-combat-clashes-over-past-24-hours) in Soledar, with 22 combat clashes over past 24 hours.

⚡️OSCE head opposes (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/osce-head-opposes-russias-expulsion-from-organization) Russia’s expulsion from organization.

⚡️SBU seizes $2 million (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/sbu-seizes-2-million-worth-of-property-of-former-education-minister-suspected-of-high-treason) worth of property of former Education Minister suspected of high treason.
Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) reported it had seized $2 million worth of property belonging to Dmytro Tabachnyk, former Education Minister under ousted pro-Kremlin President Viktor Yanukovych and his government.

⚡️German government says it doesn’t plan to provide Ukraine with Leopard tanks (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/german-government-says-it-doesnt-plan-to-provide-ukraine-with-leopard-tanks).

⚡️Sky News: UK is considering supplying Ukraine with tanks (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/sky-news-uk-is-considering-supplying-ukraine-with-tanks).
Sky News reports that the British government is considering supplying Ukraine with Challenger 2 main battle tanks.

⚡️Ukraine’s military: Soledar in Donetsk Oblast ‘practically destroyed,’ (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraines-military-soledar-in-donetsk-oblast-practically-destroyed-russia-deploys-most-trained-wagner-mercenaries-in-the-area) Russia deploys most trained Wagner mercenaries in the area. [Soledar seems to be lost now]

⚡️Netherlands grants (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/netherlands-grants-russian-tv-channel-dozhd-broadcasting-license) Russian TV channel Dozhd broadcasting license.

⚡️Politico: France, Poland push Germany (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/politico-france-and-poland-push-germany-to-send-leopard-tanks-to-ukraine) to hand over Leopard tanks to Ukraine.
Paris is putting pressure on Germany to agree to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine ahead of a Franco-German summit on Jan. 22, Politico reported, citing an unnamed French official.

⚡️Sweden pledges to provide (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/sweden-pledges-to-provide-ukraine-with-archer-artillery-systems) Ukraine with Archer artillery systems.

⚡️Politico: US mulls over (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/politico-us-mulls-over-stryker-armored-combat-vehicles-for-ukraine) Stryker armored combat vehicles for Ukraine.

UNITED 24 Media

Russia has started using Su-57 fighters in the war against Ukraine, but is afraid of losing them, – British Intelligence

The Russians attacked a critical infrastructure facility in Kherson at night

The European Court of Human Rights has ruled in the “Ukraine and the Netherlands v. Russia” case regarding the occupation of Donbas, Margarita Sokorenko, authorized by the ECtHR, said.
The decision of the court is to be announced on January 25

New Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang had a telephone conversation with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, during which the parties exchanged views on the "Ukrainian crisis", – Global Times

❗️In 2023, women from Ukraine, Iran and Turkey were awarded the Olof Palme Prize for the Protection of Women's Rights and Freedoms, – Olof Palme Memorial Foundation

Negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU rescheduled from autumn to spring this year.

EU and NATO step up defense cooperation amid Russian attack on Ukraine – AFP, citing a joint statement
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel will sign a joint declaration on January 10, according to the agency.

The U.S. concerned about Wagner PMC growing influence in Serbia, Belarus, and Africa, Biden Administration steps up Intelligence gathering on its activities, – Politico

Yerevan considers it inappropriate to conduct CSTO exercises on the territory of the country, — Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan

⚡️Ukrainian military achieved success near Kreminna, — combat map from ISW

Russia did not warn China about the invasion of Ukraine: the Chinese government now speaks of no confidence in Putin personally, — Financial Times
It is also alleged that China's deputy foreign minister was demoted "two levels of seniority" for failing to predict Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
China now understands that Russia will likely fail to defeat Ukraine and emerge from the conflict as a “minor and weakened power.”

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Ukrainian intelligence said that Russia's only aircraft carrier cruiser Admiral Kuznetsov is in critical condition. It is unable to move on its own. Ship repair specialists warned that the condition of the cruiser does not allow to launch it, because it is likely to roll over and sink. Divers found significant corrosion, and some holds are completely filled with water.

German authorities will have to withdraw Marder infantry fighting vehicles for Ukraine from the Bundeswehr stocks, Spiegel writes. On January 5, Berlin announced the transfer of 40 BMPs to Kyiv, but the manufacturer Rheinmetall learned about these plans only in early January. It will not have time to re-equip and prepare the vehicles by the end of March, as promised by the German side.
The Bundeswehr has about 370 Marder in service, but many vehicles need major repairs. As of the end of November 2022, their readiness was only 62%. Such data were indicated in internal documents of the Ministry of Defense.

Prague handed over 226 diesel heaters and 8 generators to Mykolaiv, - Mayor of Mykolaiv.

Italy will not decide on the supply of new weapons to Ukraine until February due to political tensions, considerations of the cost of weapons and lack of military means - La Repubblica.

Ukraine will receive a "symbolic number" of Leopard tanks from Poland in the future. The head of the Bureau of International Policy of the Presidential Chancellery, Jakub Kumoch, said that it is about several dozen units.

Georgia refused to return to Ukraine the Buk self-propelled anti-aircraft missile systems that Kyiv provided to Tbilisi during the Russian attack in 2008.
Charge d'Affaires of Ukraine in Georgia Andriy Kasyanov said that the Ukrainian side appealed to Georgia not only for the SAMs, but also for Javelin anti-tank systems provided to Tbilisi by the US allies. The US not only approved the transfer of its weapons, but even offered Tbilisi to replace the systems with newer ones. The Georgian government categorically refused.

Human trafficking has increased dramatically since Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine, OSCE Secretary General Helga Maria Schmid said.
Victims are lured online with false promises, abused in private accommodation abroad, or intercepted by traffickers at the border, she told German newspaper Die Welt.

Digest of the main news of the night
🔻Military Commissioner of Samara region of the Russian Federation Alexey Vdovin said that the lists of mobilized Russians liquidated in Makiivka will not be published
🔻Estonia plans to propose legal framework for confiscation and transfer of sanctioned Russian assets to Ukraine by end of January - Bloomberg

Russian Colonel General Alexander Lapin, who was previously dismissed from the post of the commander of the occupants' grouping "Center", was appointed Chief of the General Staff of the Land Forces of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.

Ukrainian intelligence said that Russia's only aircraft carrier cruiser Admiral Kuznetsov is in critical condition. It is unable to move on its own. Ship repair specialists warned that the condition of the cruiser does not allow to launch it, because it is likely to roll over and sink. Divers found significant corrosion, and some holds are completely filled with water

I can't believe Russia, the so-called 2nd army of the world, has only 1 aircraft carrier and has let it rust into immobility!

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar
I can't believe Russia, the so-called 2nd army of the world, has only 1 aircraft carrier and has let it rust into immobility!

I can. Someone was meant to pay for that to be maintained, but the money just never got beyond their desk.

Someone was meant to pay for that to be maintained, but the money just never got beyond their desk.

....or rather, the money went over the desk and into their back pocket

That must have been a big high-status ship though. You'd have thought they keep the money flowing for that because one day, the Big Boss might want it to take to sea ... I think more than anything this has driven the level of corruption home for me.

Human trafficking has increased dramatically since Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine, OSCE Secretary General Helga Maria Schmid said.

Victims are lured online with false promises, abused in private accommodation abroad, or intercepted by traffickers at the border, she told German newspaper Die Welt.

This is horrible. Earlier in the crisis, there were reports of men loitering in the areas on the borders with Ukraine where refugees (mostly women and children) had fled. It does not bear thinking that anyone fleeing a war situation with their children ends up being enslaved and abused.

This is from the Wikipedia entry for the Admiral Kuznetsov - looks like it's been out of commission for a long time.

As of December 2022, <span class="italic">Admiral Kuznetsov</span> is out of service for a refit in <a class="break-all" href="//app://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murmansk" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Murmansk</a>. In November 2018, it was damaged by a falling 70-ton crane from the <a class="break-all" href="//app://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dry_dock#Floating" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">floating dry dock</a> <a class="break-all" href="//app://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PD-50" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">PD-50</a>0<span class="italic"> and a fire that killed two during the refit. The dry dock, which sank due to a power outage while holding </span>Admiral Kuznetsov^, was vital to repairing the carrier, which changed its estimated return to service to 2022 or later. In 2021, the Vice President of the <a class="break-all" href="//app://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Shipbuilding_Corporation" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">United Shipbuilding Corporation</a> (USC), Vladimir Korolev, told the TASS news agency that the vessel was expected to begin post-repair sea trials in mid-2023 and rejoin the fleet later that year, although this may have been pushed back a year or more due to delays. In May 2022 it was reported that repairs to the vessel were scheduled for completion in Murmansk in September 2022 but after flaws were found in the work, the date for the return to service was pushed back to at least 2024.

Agree this is abhorrent but unfortunately its pretty common across all conflicts. These creatures prey on the vulnerable.

Sky News: UK is considering supplying Ukraine with tanks (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/sky-news-uk-is-considering-supplying-ukraine-with-tanks).
Sky News reports that the British government is considering supplying Ukraine with Challenger 2 main battle tanks.

Note the use of "considered".

Domestically (UK) it looks like there has been some fun and games over the last few days: Specifically an outbreak of unhappiness in some circles at the idea of the French beating the Uk when it comes promises of supplying anything other than light armour. One or two ex-Very Senior Officers seem been quick to dash away from their London clubs and onto Social media to express concern, for example:

mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1612408798613741569

On the practical front what seems to be being considered is maybe ten Challenger 2s (CR2) initially, which would bring with them the problem that they need bespoke ammunition for their main gun (mind you, so does the French AMX-10) ... so the CR2 might need a dedicated logistics chain.

But anything is better than nothing...as long as it actually arrives in theatre and sooner rather than later.

@notimagain, are the 10 Challengers being considered just as a first shipment, with more to come, or is that it? Any idea how many the MOD has in the locker? I heard yesterday that the US has about 1400 Bradley M2A2s in active service.

We recently discussed Russia's issues with the supply of artillery shells, and I saw this today:

Russian artillery fire down nearly 75%, US officials say, in latest sign of struggles for Moscow

Wagner is now blaming their lack of success in Bhakmut on the lack of supply of ammo, vehicles, etc., from the Russian Army, calling out corruption and incompetence. I believe it too. If the Ru army is short on these things, they will prioritize their own units. This kind of thing happens when you don't have a unified command.

I've just seen this in the WSJ.

U.K. and Allies Weigh Sending Ukraine Heavy Tanks, Pointing to New Phase of the War - London is discussing providing British Challenger 2 tanks to help push back Russian forces

I won't copy the whole thing, as it's quite long. But this bit gets to the intent.

The tanks in question are decades old, require extensive training to drive and operate, and aren’t expected, by themselves, to change the trajectory of the conflict. Instead, British officials said, they could create political room for Berlin to approve the provision of its own, German-made Leopard main battle tanks, a shift that could lend significant momentum to Ukraine.

So they would break the ice, so to speak, for Germany and others to start supplying Leopards and other NATO MBTs.

Swedish news is reporting that the Ukrainians are urging parents in the occupied areas to get their children out to safety any way they can as the Russians are now compiling lists of school children for 'compulsory military training', starting with 16 and 17 year olds. They believe the intent is to use Ukrainian children to shore up the front lines. Absolute bastards!

That’s horrific.

I’d suspect most who could leave already have. Those left probably don’t have many options open to them.

Meanwhile the Russians are fannying about in the Norwegian Sea 🙄

Horrible. I look forward to the day that someone gets punished for war crimes like this, and I hope as many children as possible get out to safety.

"The tanks in question are decades old"

Challenger 2 entered service less than 20 years ago and hasn't yet been replaced by Challenger 3. They're the British Army's current Main Battle Tank.

*30 years