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Ukraine Invasion: Part 36

992 replies

MagicFox · 03/12/2022 15:42

Slava Ukraini πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ Thanks as usual to all contributors and lurkers

OP posts:
Thread gallery
110
c3pu · 10/01/2023 19:31

Challenger 2 is a very capable main battle tank, defensively it has great armour and the gun is accurate at long range. During the gulf war it laughed in the face of the Soviet stuff Iraq threw at it.

The only challenger that was destroyed in the conflict was a friendly fire incident from... Another challenger.

Granted 10 will not turn the tide of the war, but it's not to be sniffed at. It would be well suited to the job.

Greenshake · 10/01/2023 19:43

Igotjelly · 10/01/2023 16:33

Meanwhile the Russians are fannying about in the Norwegian Sea πŸ™„

It’s getting old isn’t it?

notimagain · 10/01/2023 20:02

The tank stuff is all a bit Greek to me but the cavalry people in another place and at RUSI have some interesting views...

The good news seems to be that with what we now know about the Russian tanks maybe the upgrade of some CR2 hulls to CR3 standard might not quite as urgent as was thought..

OTOH worries being expressed that donating serious numbers will leave the UK short of armour medium to long term (mutterings for a while that the army is now very very short anyway), and the logistics of supporting the gun (rifled barrel)..

Igotjelly · 10/01/2023 20:05

Greenshake · 10/01/2023 19:43

It’s getting old isn’t it?

It honestly used to make me a bit nervous, now I just roll my eyes. No doubt they’re up to some mischief.

Greenshake · 10/01/2023 20:21

@Igotjelly you are right, and I suppose in some ways it is a sign of war fatigue. If this had happened 6 months ago there would have been a different response (on Mumsnet / in the press at least). I remember how quickly these boards used to fill up in February, March and April and there being a very different feeling then.

MissConductUS · 10/01/2023 21:10

Since the Challenger seems to be the day's topic, I thought I would share this article from the Telegraph, written by Dom Nichols, well known to many due to his contributions to their Ukraine: The Latest podcast. Dom is a former British Army Armour officer. In other news, the Pentagon announced that UAF air defense troops will receive training on the Patriot system at Fort Sill, Oklahoma.

I'll take a pause there. 😁

How Britain’s Challenger II tanks could alter the battlefield in Ukraine - The protection provided by the Chobham and Dorchester armour will enable the vehicles to survive direct hits from Russian T-72 tanks

By Dominic Nicholls, Associate Editor 10 January 2023 β€’ 5:24pm

Britain’s Challenger II will be the most capable armoured vehicle gifted to Ukraine, if Rishi Sunak’s government decides to increase military support for Kyiv.

The protection provided by the Chobham and Dorchester armour – the exact composition of which is graded secret – will enable the vehicles to survive direct hits from Russian T-72 tanks.

There will be some in Whitehall’s security establishment fearful such advanced military secrets will fall into Russian hands.

However, it seems as if Kyiv’s dogged resistance and the ability of Ukrainian forces to go on the offensive has convinced external supporters of the need to provide more advanced combat power; to shift from ensuring Ukraine doesn’t lose, to ensuring the country is victorious.

In 1994, I was an excitable young cavalry officer trying to get to grips with the three tanks that the Queen had just issued me.

I was guided in this task by my ever-patient and all-knowing Troop Sergeant, β€œProf” Henderson – so named because he had an A level.

One day, the Commanding Officer demanded from us young bucks an essay about our chosen military careers in armoured warfare. We were asked to explore the possible future utility of the tank, given the numerous and innovative ways they could be rendered redundant on the modern battlefield.

I argued that if tanks – still the most efficient way of maximising the holy trinity of armoured warfare: firepower, protection and mobility – could be removed from the battlefield visually, thermally, electronically and tactically, there was a future for Churchill’s β€œlandships”.

Fast forward a few years, and a leap or two in technology, and the debate is still raging over whether these lumbering beasts have any place on the front lines of a modern war.

Surely, the critics say, drones are the new airborne snipers, ready to kill any tank nudging its barrel out of a hide.

Furthermore, even if the wind is too strong for a drone, modern dual-warhead anti-tank missiles or mines will stop them in their tracks.

However, it speaks volumes that tanks are right at the top of the Ukrainian wishlist when discussing military aid for their efforts to eject Russians camped out in their country.

For each of a tank’s undeniable vulnerabilities, there is a countermeasure. Usually, this involves working with other parts of the military: one’s own drone operators or anti-air defenders, for example.

Beyond this, the ability to employ accurate, deadly firepower in direct contact with Russian forces is still an extremely sought-after capability.

There is an old military maxim: β€œTanks are like dinner jackets; you don’t need them very often. But when you do, nothing else will do.”

The world saw this last summer east of Kharkiv, when Ukraine smashed through a thinly guarded line of Russian troops and rushed east, gobbling up ground as Moscow’s retreat turned into a rout.

There is every chance that could happen again, if heavy tanks such as Challenger II and perhaps German-built Leopard II gifted by Poland and Finland could be combined with the armoured infantry fighting vehicles recently promised by the US, France and Germany.

As long as Ukraine is able to adopt β€œcombined arms” warfare, with tanks, infantry, artillery and airpower all working together, it could leave Vladimir Putin’s forces unable to stop another Ukrainian advance.

Vehicles such as Challenger II and Leopard II were designed specifically to fight against the exact same kit Ukraine faces today.

That kit – in particular the T-72 tank, albeit in service with the Iraqi army – was decimated by the US Bradley infantry vehicle at Operation Desert Storm in 1991. Washington is sending 50 Bradleys to Ukraine.

The Western vehicles have been upgraded many times over since then, with better optics, protection and weapons. The same cannot be said for the Russian kit.

The contest so expected throughout the long years of the Cold War – where the Western and Russian military industrial complexes would have used armoured vehicles to slug it out on the battlefield – could be about to take place.

There is little this current Russian army has displayed since Feb 24 last year to suggest it will be capable of withstanding an assault by Western armour and Ukrainian spirit.

minsmum · 10/01/2023 21:13

Not sure if it's been mentioned on here but I am seeing reports on Twitter of Russian soldiers dressed in Ukrainian uniforms.

blueshoes · 10/01/2023 21:18

Greenshake · 10/01/2023 20:21

@Igotjelly you are right, and I suppose in some ways it is a sign of war fatigue. If this had happened 6 months ago there would have been a different response (on Mumsnet / in the press at least). I remember how quickly these boards used to fill up in February, March and April and there being a very different feeling then.

The Daily Mail did not even make a song and dance about it. Same ol same ol.

katem98 · 10/01/2023 21:19

@blueshoes That's saying something if the Daily Mail missed/ ignored it Grin

blueshoes · 10/01/2023 21:21

minsmum · 10/01/2023 21:13

Not sure if it's been mentioned on here but I am seeing reports on Twitter of Russian soldiers dressed in Ukrainian uniforms.

That would surely be a war crime but I guess the Russians got over that a long time ago.

Do you know what the Russian imposters are trying to do? I hope surrender but I doubt it.

blueshoes · 10/01/2023 21:24

katem98 · 10/01/2023 21:19

@blueshoes That's saying something if the Daily Mail missed/ ignored it Grin

Daily Mail has a headline 'frigate carrying 'unstoppable' hypersonic Zircon missiles stages war games as it sails towards Britain' about 1/3 the way down. Never made it to the top of the headlines. Too much Harry & Meghan to obsess over. They got their priorities right πŸ˜†

Greenshake · 10/01/2023 21:24

@blueshoes makes a welcome change from some z-lister flashing their β€˜side-boob’ πŸ™‚

blueshoes · 10/01/2023 21:36

Greenshake · 10/01/2023 21:24

@blueshoes makes a welcome change from some z-lister flashing their β€˜side-boob’ πŸ™‚

lol, side boob is for the side-bar.

minsmum · 10/01/2023 21:50

I think they were ambushing Ukrainian soldiers, posing as being on the same side

minsmum · 10/01/2023 22:00

mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1612659859194781696 Russians compiling lists of Ukrainian schoolchildren ages 16/17 to mobilise

minsmum · 10/01/2023 22:17

mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1612883898001723412 again not sure if this has been seen

MissConductUS · 11/01/2023 00:00

minsmum · 10/01/2023 22:17

I posted a link directly to the CNN article mentioned in that Twitter post up thread. No harm in repeating, it's very interesting information.

Mb76 · 11/01/2023 06:49

blueshoes · 10/01/2023 21:21

That would surely be a war crime but I guess the Russians got over that a long time ago.

Do you know what the Russian imposters are trying to do? I hope surrender but I doubt it.

I don’t know how much harm they can do on a big scale. Clutching at straws I think. From afar maybe they could pull an ambush stunt, but if they come face to face with the real Ukrainian soldiers it won’t take long to identify the imposters.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 11/01/2023 08:26

sabotage, information on troop movements maybe?

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 11/01/2023 08:45

For ease of readability, is it easier if I post the different telegram channels in separate posts to break it up a bit, or does it work when it's one long wodge of info?

and hi @pigsinoodies and @c3pu, thanks for the info for us non-military types

+++

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates
Key Takeaways

Russian media reported on January 10 that Colonel General Aleksandr Lapin, former commander of the Central Military District and Russian forces in Kharkiv and northern Donetsk oblasts during Russia's significant losses in September 2022, has been appointed Chief of Staff of the Russian Ground Forces.

The news of Lapin’s appointment is generating further schisms in the already-fragmented pro-war Russian information space.

Igor Girkin heavily implied that he would support the removal of Russian President Vladimir Putin from office, suggesting that a willingness to reduce self-censorship and directly criticize Putin may be growing among some milbloggers.

The Ukrainian General Staff deviated from its normal reporting pattern about Russian forces in Belarus and near Ukraine’s northern border on January 10, an indicator of possible Russian preparations for an offensive in northern Ukraine, though ISW assesses this course of action remains unlikely at this time.

Ukrainian forces continued to make gains along the Svatove-Kreminna line.

Russian forces conducted ground attacks across the Donetsk Oblast frontline and made gains around Soledar but have not captured the settlement, despite false claims.

The Kremlin continues to deny that Russian authorities are preparing for another wave of partial mobilization.

Russian occupation authorities are struggling to contain an effective partisan movement in occupied territories.

[that seems a suicidal approach by Girkin, of MH17 infamy, though I think he judges the wind very carefully. I think myself that it looks like Putin is being sidelined now. The last photos of him look unhealthy and Prigozhin's increasingly high profile seems strange as Russia generally does not like 'wild card' military people, or indeed anyone outside the system. Whether or not he becomes higher-profile, the fact that his presence is tolerated indicates huge weakness in the army and considerable weaknesses in the political structure of the Kremlin, to my mind, plus a big weakness in Russian law as technically PMCs are illegal ... ! Attempts by the Kremlin to control the situation have failed]

+++

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚑️ Media: Ukrainian billionaire Kostyantyn Zhevago released (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/media-ukrainian-billionaire-zhevago-released-on-bail) in France on 1 million euro bail.

⚑️ Italian foreign minister: Italy must fix β€˜technical issues’ (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/cnn-italy-must-fix-technical-issues-before-providing-ukraine-with-air-defense-systems) before providing Ukraine with air defense systems.

⚑️
Russian troops hit Soledar (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russian-troops-hit-soledar-in-donetsk-oblast-86-times-over-the-past-day) in Donetsk Oblast 86 times over the past day.
Eastern Military Command spokesman also said that the goal of the Ukrainian military defending Soledar is to exhaust Russians, "so that even if they get a tactical win, it becomes a Pyrrhic victory." [not entirely the case, since it has wealth-generating mines]

⚑️ Latvia to send (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/latvia-to-send-more-stinger-anti-aircraft-missiles-to-ukraine) more Stinger anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine.

⚑️ German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock pays surprise visit to Kharkiv on Jan. 10.

⚑️ Security Service has uncovered (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/security-service-uncovers-600-russian-agents-spies-in-ukraine-after-feb-24) 600 Russian agents, spies in Ukraine since Feb. 24.

⚑️Police: Over 2,300 collaboration cases have been opened since Feb. 24.

⚑️ CNN: Russia reduced intensity (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/cnn-russia-reduced-intensity-of-artillery-shelling-in-ukraine-in-some-places-by-75) of artillery shelling in Ukraine, in some places by 75%.
Officials don’t yet have a unanimous opinion or clear explanation on why the change happened. It could be due to low artillery rounds supply or change in tactics amid counteroffensives.

⚑️Inflation rate in Ukraine over 2022 lower (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/inflation-rate-in-ukraine-over-2022-lower-than-expected-at-26-6) than expected at 26.6%.

⚑️General Staff: Russia opens (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-staff-russia-opens-3-new-military-hospitals-in-occupied-berdiansk-as-casualties-mount) 3 new military hospitals in occupied Berdiansk as casualties mount. [given their notable unconcern for the deaths of their soldiers, I'm surprised they bother]

Russia moves into Soledar, making rare progress amid stalled offensive (kyivindependent.com/national/russia-moves-into-soledar-making-rare-progress-amid-stalled-offensive)
The small salt-mining town of Soledar is on the verge of being sacked by Russian troops after months of heavy fighting.
Occupying the "practically destroyed" town would constitute the Kremlin's largest success since July, potentially endangering Ukraine's positions in neighboring Bakhmut.
It will, however, have little impact on the war's outcome.

⚑️Canada to buy NASAMS (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/canada-to-buy-nasams-air-defense-system-for-ukraine) air defense system for Ukraine.
"Canada's NASAMS donation will help Ukraine strengthen its air defense systems against destructive air attacks on military sites, critical civilian infrastructure, and population centers," the country's Department of National Defense said.

⚑️Zelensky strips (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zelensky-strips-4-russia-affiliated-former-politicians-among-them-putin-ally-medvedchuk-of-ukrainian-citizenship) 4 Russia-affiliated former politicians, among them Putin ally Medvedchuk, of Ukrainian citizenship.

⚑️New York Times: Russia reports (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/new-york-times-russia-reports-47-billion-budget-deficit-for-2022) $47 billion budget deficit for 2022.
The New York Times reported citing Russia's finance minister that the budget gap reached 3.3 trillion rubles in 2022, or 2.3 percent of the Russian economy.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 36
Ukraine Invasion: Part 36
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 11/01/2023 09:02

from Zelenskyy's channel he's been talking to PMs and high officials in Ireland, Estonia, Belgium and the EC, trying to sell his Peace Formula and speaking of military needs.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

✈️Aircraft of Russian airlines suffer massive breakdowns
In 2022, more than 130 incidents occurred in Russia, including 28 plane crashes. And since the beginning of 2023, there have already been at least 7 accidents involving air transport, - reports The Moscow Times.
The main reason for the massive breakdowns is the lack of proper maintenance of the boards due to the shortage of spare parts in the country, as aircraft manufacturing companies have withdrawn from the Russian market.

Turkey supports Ukrainian "peace formula" - Foreign Minister MevlΓΌt Γ‡avuşoğlu

Ukrainians to start training on Patriot SAM systems in the US next week - CNN.
The training program will be held at Fort Sill in Oklahoma, where the Americans themselves conduct training on the operation of air defense systems.

Latvian airBaltic will be the first air carrier in Europe to launch Starlink internet on board its aircraft. Passengers are promised unlimited and free satellite internet this year.

Pakistan will also provide weapons to Ukraine
According to the largest business edition of India The Economic Times, 159 containers with ammunition for the Ukrainian army will arrive from the Pakistani port city of Karachi to Ukraine through the port in Gdansk.
Among them are 155-mm artillery shells (a common NATO standard - Ed.), charges for them, as well as M82 artillery capsules and PDM detonators.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 11/01/2023 09:09

UNITED24 Media Telegram

The Russians expelled the director of the Mykhailivska school in the Zaporizhzhia region. He raised money for the Armed Forces of Ukraine

🀝Copenhagen and Kyiv will become twin cities, – the press service of the economic department of the municipality of Copenhagen reports

Armenia wants to see UN peacekeepers in Karabakh instead of Russian ones
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan allows an appeal to the UN Security Council after the end of the mandate of the Russian "peacekeepers".

The Russians turned the captured Zaporizhzhia NPP into a repair base for their equipment
β€œZaporizhzhia NPP has actually been turned into a military repair base, where equipment is being repaired. All 6 power units have been shut down, the station receives electricity from the Ukrainian energy system in order for the security systems to work,” says the acting of the State Inspectorate for Nuclear Regulation of Ukraine.
The Russians also continue to try to connect the captured station to the Russian power grid. However, according to Korikov, it is useless.
Equally unsuccessful are the Russians' attempts to appoint an "exploitative organization" not recognized by any country. [what a bunch of fucking idiots. Military repair base next to a NPP]

In the near future monitoring missions of the International Atomic Energy Agency will be deployed at all Ukrainian NPPs

The G7 countries plan to introduce two price caps for oil products from Russia at once, Reuters reports.
Starting in February, a variant may be introduced for products traded at a premium to crude oil, and another variant for those products traded at a discount.

The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, at a meeting with NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg, advocated the supply of German Leopard tanks and other heavy military equipment to Ukraine.

The Russians tried to disrupt the Banksy auction. The artist put up for sale 50 of his prints to raise money to help Ukraine. The War Legacy Foundation claimed to have received 3,500 hostile attacks from Russian IP addresses. In total, they received more than 1 million applications.

Zelenskyy spoke at the Golden Globe Film Awards

Ukraine Invasion: Part 36
notimagain · 11/01/2023 09:12

In 2022, more than 130 incidents occurred in Russia, including 28 plane crashes.

The Russian aviation industry is in a bit of a state but without context or definitions that's more than a bit click baity TBH...

I could probably pick any large British airline and find more than 130 reportable "incidents" in just a month.

...and we see to much more info on what is being defined as a "plane crash"...

Igotjelly · 11/01/2023 09:15

⚑️ Italian foreign minister: Italy must fix β€˜technical issues’ (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/cnn-italy-must-fix-technical-issues-before-providing-ukraine-with-air-defense-systems) before providing Ukraine with air defense systems.

They were speaking about this on Ukraine the Latest yesterday and about how it's likely to be a genuine issue rather than a political stalling method. Apparently the fact that Italy have openly apologised to Ukraine for the delay and that wouldn't happen if they simply didn't want to supply.

MMBaranova · 11/01/2023 09:16

Doing a bit of a catchup with relatives. 'Every day I wake up thinking I should have gone to Poland'.