Ukraine Invasion: Part 36

[MagicFox]

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 Thanks as usual to all contributors and lurkers

Typos ...

Historian here. In many ways the world today is much safer than it ever was (despite weapons being capable of more destruction) especially for those of us who live in western Europe. Lots of diseases that no longer kill us, better medicine, fewer wars on our own lands etc

My concern is always what happens as a generation dies off. Will we still say "never again" when there is no one left alive who remembers the horror of World War Two? You already see that war being glamourised and Remembrance Day becoming more nationalistic in some quarter. It is similar to vaccines - people in western countries don't want vaccines because they think that they are more dangerous than the disease. But then only think that because vaccines mean they have no personal memories of how bad polio and measles etc are. And so we start having outbreaks again.

Yes absolutely. That's already been evidenced by Russia. The Remembrance (equivalent) parade there used to be more about never again / the past and then as the older generation died off it became a nationalistic promotion of Russian military strength /the future

Also to Ducks point about climate/ resources etc, we're already seeing that with Ukraine. Russia wants its resources and this is definitely a less spoken about part of the whole thing

Great stuff. Never underestimate the US! Neither prod the sleeping tiger nor take it on when it wakes.

Long live America. Glory to Ukraine. Love live the King.

@terrywynne thank you for your insight!

@HariKris the underlying strength of the US is considerable isn't it? Putin must have thought he had the US under his thumb with Trump and then the unfortunate withdrawal from Afghanistan. Plus Bojo.

He prodded too far.

I've thought the same. For years Putin has been a malevolent actor on the world stage. Election interference, hacking government systems, and using bloody chemical weapons to assassinate people on foreign soil. When he created an opening by invading Ukraine, everyone saw an opportunity to take him down a few notches. I guess he didn't expect that.

Thank you for those kind words, @HariKris. I am really proud of how my country has stood up for Ukraine. American armed forces have trained and equipped to fight the Russians for decades, so it's very gratifying to be able to help the Ukrainians do so.

the US's latest commitments.

That’s a decent haul. Happy New Year Ukraine ❤️

Rumours of an additional 500k conscripts being mobilised in Russia. Any thoughts on what impact they’d likely have?

Day 316, January 5th. Summary of Arestovych and Feygin daily broadcast
Posted on 06 January 2023

Cease-fire proposal:
The only beneficiary of proposal is 🇹🇷 Erdogan, likely he will get some discount to gas price.
Zelensky did offer cease-fire for catholic Christmas in December.
🇺🇦 Ukraine now wants to continue the war, until all occupiers are gone from 🇺🇦 Ukraine land. After that, there can be cease-fire.

🇺🇸 U.S. and 🇪🇺 E.U. expressed distrust to cease-fire proposal.
From military perspective, a day of cease-fire won’t allow any regrouping or other actions, it is purely diplomatic trap, to create accusations.
There won’t be any cease-fire.

Beriev A-50 airborne radar & control did arrive to 🇧🇾 Belarus, apparently 🇷🇺 is preparing another wave missile and drone attacks instead of cease-fire.

🔥 Battlefield update:
🇷🇺 started reinforcing Zaporozhye, Bakhmut-Soledar, Lyman directions with approximately 10k draftees having some limited training during last 2-3 months. They will slowly accumulate and attempt offensive.
Zelensky is discussing with international partners about options to make this offensive the last one.
There are 3 possible scenarios – North and everywhere, Kharkiv-Zaporozhye-Donetsk-Luhansk and most sober – Donetsk-Luhansk. Likely 🇷🇺 will only attempt sending 200k at Donetsk-Luhansk, but the quality of those 200k is much lower than of regular army.

Tokmak: location with some 80 🇷🇺 solders hit. Similar attacks (group of 50/80/130 solders hit) happen at least 3-4 times per day.

All information of successful bombings is published by 🇺🇦 General Staff https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua ], this broadcast is more of Strategic level.

🔥 Weapons:
Next Ramstein meeting on 9th of January.

🇺🇸U.S. supplying M2 Bradley IFVs.

🇩🇪 Germany supplying Marder IFVs and additional battery of MIM-104 Patriot air-defense.

🇬🇧 U.K. planning to send tanks and weapons to hit targets at distance.

🇫🇷 France supplying AMX-10 RC light support tanks and Bastion APCs
Western support will continue and increase. Looks like that restrictions on supplying any weapon types have been lifted.

Western manufacturing still lags, the amount of 155mm shells manufactured in a year are used by 🇺🇦 Ukraine in 50 days.

Western aid as usual includes planning for maintenance, spare parts, training, etc.
Looks like, that there will be accumulation of heavy mechanized units at certain date. The only task for such units is offensive. Offensive can only happen, when 🇷🇺 has exhausted it’s offensive capabilities. When that happens, Kharkiv operation will look like child’s play.

Two of previously “never” categories have been already planned – Patriot air defense and tanks. Remaining categories are – Aviation and Long-range missiles.
JDAM bombs that were announced previously should be launched from aircraft with NATO avionics. Even if those are upgrades of existing aircraft, that would open more capabilities.

🔥 Wagner:
Videos of some Wagner-recruited prisoners being released after 6 months. Video is likely staged, but even if it is true, they will soon return to old lifestyle and back to prison or Wagner again. If they indeed are released, they are placed way above regular army, which with 3 and 6 months contracts are not being released.

🔥 Medvedev’s threats:
Medvedev threatens 🇺🇸U.S. with 3M22 Zircon hypersonic missiles carried by Admiral Gorshkov frigate. Unknown if Zircon exists at all, if it can fly, if it can be controlled at claimed distance. Zircon was accepted into service on October 2022.

Everyone knows, Medvedev is insane and alcoholic and possibly drug addict. If anything comes close to 🇺🇸U.S. in 100 mile range, it would take 3 minutes to sink it, and no single ship would be able to do anything, it takes fleet working together to wage war.
Even more, no single weapon poses significant threat, it takes systematic work like 12 🇺🇸 U.S. aircraft carrier groups.

🔥 Supporting Saakashvili:
Multiple demonstrations around world at 🇬🇪 Georgian embassies on January 4th. Washington post made article, looks like information has reached 🇺🇸Biden administration. Now, the question is, if 🇬🇪 Georgia wants to move in direction of 🇪🇺EU and NATO, or not.

For example, Rudolf Hess, close ally of Hitler was arrested during WW2, tried for war crimes, and lived in prison until age 93.

Saakashvili is being just 2 years in prison, poisoned and killed by 🇬🇪 Georgian government in order to please Putin.
Next broadcast on Saturday, January 7th

ISW Key Takeaways
www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

Russian officials and milbloggers largely did not react to the US announcement of more than $3.75 billion in new military assistance to Ukraine.

Russian officials and milbloggers continued to respond negatively to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s January 5 ceasefire announcement as hostilities continued in Ukraine on January 6.

Certain hardline elements of the Russian information space seized on Putin’s statement to propagate the narrative that Putin is a protector of religious values.

Prominent Russian milbloggers continue to use their platforms to advocate for the eradication of Ukrainian cultural and ethnic identity.

Russian and Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Kreminna and Svatove.

Russian sources claimed that Russian forces made gains in Soledar as Russian offensive operations continued around Bakhmut and the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area.

Russian authorities and military leaders continue to face backlash for their responses to the December 31 Ukrainian strike on a Russian base in Makiivka, Donetsk Oblast.

Russian forces and occupation authorities are continuing to target Ukrainian children to consolidate social control in occupied territories.

+++

Kyiv Indep Telegram

⚡️ Russia’s shelling of Kherson Oblast kills 6 (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russias-shelling-of-kherson-oblast-kills-6-including-12-year-old), including 12-year-old.

⚡️ Germany to give (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/germany-to-give-40-marder-infantry-fighting-vehicles-to-ukraine) 40 Marder infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine.
According to Nils Schmid, a foreign policy spokesman for the Social Democratic Party, the vehicles could be delivered in the first quarter of 2023. "We are far from tired of supporting Ukraine," he said.

Prime Minister reveals (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/prime-minister-reveals-top-financial-aid-amounts-in-2022) top financial aid amounts in 2022.
Ukraine received Hr 1.1 trillion ($31 billion) in non-military financial aid from international partners in 2022, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on Jan. 6, citing the National Bank of Ukraine.

⚡️PM: Ukrainians should be prepared (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukrainians-should-be-prepared-for-more-emergency-power-shutoffs) for more emergency power shutoffs.

⚡️Russian marching orders found (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russian-marching-orders-found-in-belongings-of-top-kherson-collaborator-saldo) in belongings of top Kherson collaborator Saldo.
The State Investigations Bureau said on Jan. 6
that it had found Russian orders to commit crimes against Ukraine in the home and belongings of Volodymyr Saldo, a Ukrainian politician who defected to Russia and was placed in charge of the occupied part of southern Kherson Oblast.

⚡️Ukraine to receive (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraine-to-receive-patriot-battery-from-germany-in-first-quarter-of-2023) Patriot battery from Germany in first quarter of 2023.

⚡️Russia reportedly hiring (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russia-reportedly-hiring-mercenaries-in-the-balkans) mercenaries in the Balkans.
The Balkans are the main source of mercenary fighters for Russia, according to the National Resistance Center, an organization operated by Ukraine's Special Forces. [anyone who remembers the Balkans war knows just how horrific some of those fighters are. They are very much on a level with Wagner]

⚡️US imposes (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/us-imposes-more-sanctions-on-iran-over-drones-for-russia) more sanctions on Iran over drones for Russia.

⚡️General Staff: Ukraine hits temporary Russian base (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-staff-ukraine-hits-temporary-russian-base-in-kherson-oblast-up-to-100-soldiers-injured) in Kherson Oblast, up to 100 soldiers injured.

⚡️UK sends 280 power generators (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/uk-sends-280-power-generators-to-mykolaiv) to Mykolaiv.

⚡️Russia stepping up (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russia-stepping-up-mobilization-efforts-in-occupied-territories) mobilization efforts in occupied territories.
The Ukrainian military's National Resistance Center reported on Jan. 6 that, in particular, the Russian military is planning to mobilize 2,000 people in the Russian-occupied city of Horlivka, Donetsk Oblast.

⚡️Ukrainian intelligence: Russia planning (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukrainian-intelligence-russia-planning-to-mobilize-half-a-million-conscripts-in-january) to mobilize half a million conscripts in January. [@Igotjelly I'm looking forward to reading some of the analysts' views on this too. I think that this isn't unexpected and I hope they have been planning for it. I can't imagine they haven't]

⚡️UN reports says (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/un-reports-says-ukraine-will-need-at-least-1-79-billion-to-restore-telecommunications-sector) Ukraine will need at least $1.79 billion to restore telecommunications sector.

⚡️London to host (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/london-to-host-international-meeting-on-war-crimes) international meeting on war crimes.

⚡️Finland ready to provide (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/finland-ready-to-provide-ukraine-with-leopard-2-tanks) Ukraine with Leopard 2 tanks.
Finland is ready to provide Ukraine with Leopard 2 battle tanks if Europe gives it the green light, Antti Hakkianen, chairman of the defense committee in Finland, said, Finnish MTV Uutiset news reports. [this may not happen. Israel modified the tanks so they have the right to stop any donations to Ukraine]

⚡️General Staff: Russia forces Russian passports (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-staff-russia-forces-russian-passports-on-3-000-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-workers) on 3,000 Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant workers.

UNITED24 Media

⚡️ The United States will provide $682 million to NATO Eastern Bloc countries, – White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said
The funds provided are primarily intended to compensate for the losses of military equipment by the countries of Eastern Europe, which transferred their own weapons as aid to Ukraine.

Hackers from the Russian group Cold River attacked three nuclear research laboratories in the United States, – Reuters

❗️ Poland began to consider Ukraine's application for the transfer of Leopard tanks, – WSJ
The director of the Warsaw think tank of the Polish Institute of International Relations, Sławomir Dębski, said that Poland has more than 240 Leopard tanks.
Their transfer to Ukraine depends on the permission of Germany.
“The question is not if, but when. This is exactly what Poland has been insisting on for many months,” Dębski said.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg nominated for Nobel Peace Prize

Full list of weapons in the latest package for Ukraine
The main ones include:
▫️50 Bradleys with 500 TOW anti-tank missiles and 250,000 25mm ammunition;
▫️100 M113 APCs;
▫️55 MRAPs;
▫️138 HUMVEEs;
▫️18 155mm self-propelled howitzers;
▫️RIM-7 Sea Sparrow missiles for air defense.
Extras include:
▫️70,000 155mm artillery shells;
▫️500 155mm Excalibur shells;
▫️1200 155-mm shells of remote anti-armor mine systems (RAAM);
▫️36 105mm towed howitzers and 95,000 105mm artillery shells;
▫️10,000 120mm mortar shells;
▫️HIMARS ammunition;
▫️4,000 Zuni Aircraft Missiles
▫️About 2000 anti-tank missiles;
▫️Sniper rifles machine guns and ammo.

Washington Post Telegram

—Fighting between Ukrainian and Russian forces carried on despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unilateral declaration of a 36-hour cease-fire that started at noon Friday to mark the Orthodox Christmas holiday. Moscow and Kyiv blamed each other for the continued shelling.

— U.S. instructors will later this month start training Ukrainian troops to use Patriot missiles.

— The Biden administration announced a $2.85 billion military aid package for Ukraine, the largest drawdown from U.S. defense stockpiles to date.

Lower personnel and equipment losses today - though 490 is still a lot of dead people.

The Guardian has a pretty good write up.

Russia preparing to mobilise extra 500,000 conscripts, claims Ukraine - Kyiv’s deputy military intelligence chief says force will form part of new offensives over spring and summer

It will not solve their shortages of officers, training capacity, arms, and ammunition. Minimally trained and equipped troops can help somewhat on defense, but they are practically useless on offense.

R4 The Briefing Room (David Aaronovich with Lawrence Freedman and others) on Ukraine today. I found it very interesting.

www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001gl7b

mobile.twitter.com/yalpski/status/1611484136904052742 chief medical officer of Wagner captured

A latter day Irma Grese?

Love it.

I don't fancy being a bubble though. Feels like being in outerspace. Fine if my spaceship / submarine is watertight, but any emergency and I'd be f--ked. Think Kursk.

Fine if my spaceship / submarine is watertight, but any emergency and I'd be f--ked. Think Kursk.

True, but consider how quickly the Moskva was promoted to submarine and how many Russian tank crew became cosmonauts.

Probably shouldn't but 😊

Truly weird footage of a very depressed looking Putin 'celebrating' Christmas.

This fresh footage of a solitary Putin on Orthodox Christmas speaks volumes about the Russian dictator’s growing isolation

https://twitter.com/bizukrainee_mag/status/1611519518488104960?s=61&t=S3fYfkJzRO3Pl0MWPDty3Q

Click above for video.

Below is a still:

I read somewhere that Putin was alone in the Cathedral because they're worried about assination attempts.

For anyone who didn't get the cosmonaut joke, Russian tanks have a design flaw. The gun rounds are stored directly below the turret with no protection, so when the tank is hit they tend to explode. This causes the turret (and in many cases members of the crew) to be thrown high up into the air. There have been many videos of this on social media.

Russia’s “Headless Tanks” – Why Putin’s Powerful Main Battle Tanks Are Getting Decapitated In The Ukraine War?

Greed is what sealed the Kursk submariners to their deaths. Poor fleets, poor training and no maintenance.

Somewhere in various ports are Russian oligarchs’ luxury yachts on which was spent anywhere between £50m and £800m a piece.

Crazy. Crazier still when other nations get their hands on those yachts. “Govt stock requisition - £50m.”

”Sold, for £5m. Only bid.”

Funny that.

500 thousand more men? When Russia has barely managed to finish the last round of mobilisation?

I am sure they can pull them in from somewhere but the logistics are not on their side, let alone training them all. If this war has taught me one thing, it's how much experience the average soldier needs before they are useful in battle.

ISW Key Takeaways
www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

Recent Russian gains in Soledar do not portend an imminent Russian encirclement of Bakhmut.

Russia continues to weaponize religion to perpetuate long-standing information operations and discredit Ukraine.

Russian forces reportedly continue to deplete their missile arsenal and stock of Iranian-made drones but will likely continue to threaten Ukrainian infrastructure at scale in the near term.

Russian and Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Svatove and Kreminna.

Russian forces made marginal confirmed advances in Soledar amid continuing Russian offensive operations around Bakhmut and along the western outskirts of Donetsk City.

Russian forces continue efforts to establish further control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).

Ukrainian and European officials continue to warn that Russia is preparing for an imminent second wave of mobilization.

Russian occupation authorities continue to transport Ukrainian children to Russian territory under the guise of medical rehabilitation schemes.

+++

Kyiv INdep Telegram

⚡️National Bank: Foreign reserves grew by 1.9% (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/national-bank-foreign-reserves-grow-by-1-9-in-december-still-lower-than-pre-war-level) in December, still lower than pre-war level.
According to the National Bank, Ukraine's foreign reserves reached $28.5 billion as of Jan. 1. The number is still lower than the pre-full-scale war number of nearly $31 billion.

⚡️La Repubblica: U.S. asks (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/la-repubblica-u-s-asks-italy-to-send-air-defense-systems-to-ukraine) Italy to send air defense systems to Ukraine.

⚡️German official: Ramstein-8 summit to be held (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/german-official-ramstein-8-summit-to-be-held-on-jan-20) on Jan. 20.
German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht said on Jan. 7 that the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, also known as Ramstein, would be held on Jan. 20.

⚡️Finland to send (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/finland-to-send-new-military-aid-package-to-ukraine) new military aid package to Ukraine.
Finnish Defense Minister Mikko Savola said on Jan. 7 that Finland was preparing its 12th package of military aid for Ukraine, without disclosing its content for security reasons.

⚡️Ukrainian army says it still controls (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukrainian-army-says-it-still-controls-soledar-despite-russian-assaults) Soledar despite Russian assaults.
The town of Soledar, near Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast, is still under Ukrainian control despite violent Russian assaults, Serhiy Cherevaty, a spokesman for Ukraine’s Eastern Group of Forces, said on Jan. 7.
[this is about the greatest gain Russia has made in the last many weeks. It's .... not big]

⚡️Intelligence: Russia may re-launch (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/intelligence-russia-may-re-launch-mobilization-of-conscripts-on-jan-15) mobilization of conscripts on Jan. 15.
Russia is planning to launch a new wave of mobilization of conscripts for the war against Ukraine on Jan. 15, Andriy Chernyak, a spokesman for Ukraine’s military intelligence, said on Jan. 7.

⚡️Media: Zelensky revokes (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/media-zelensky-revokes-ukrainian-citizenship-of-13-russian-affiliated-clerics) Ukrainian citizenship of 13 Russian-affiliated clerics.

⚡️ Ukrainian border guards repel (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukrainian-border-guards-repel-russian-attack-near-bakhmut) Russian attack near Bakhmut.
Ukrainian border guards repelled the advance of Russian troops near Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, killing the unit’s commander, Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service reported on Jan. 7

⚡️ Russia may blow up (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russia-may-blow-up-dam-in-luhansk-oblast-to-slow-ukrainian-advance) dam in Luhansk Oblast to slow Ukrainian advance.
Russian forces may blow up the Svatove Reservoir dam in Luhansk Oblast, Ukraine’s National Resistance Center reported on Jan. 7.

⚡️ CNN: Turkey working (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/cnn-turkey-working-to-extend-ceasefire-amid-russias-full-scale-war) to extend ceasefire amid Russia’s full-scale war. [bit of a tall order, all things considering]

Another echelon of Russian military personnel consisting of 700-800 people arrived in Belarus, Belaruski Hayun, a group of activists that record the movement of troops within Belarus, said in a Telegram post.

The founder of Russia's Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Russian oligarch, Putin confidant, and former convict, said on Jan. 7 that he wanted Russia to capture Ukraine's eastern city of Bakhmut for its resources and "underground cities."

⚡️ Ukrenergo: Energy consumption limits introduced (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukrenergo-energy-consumption-limits-introduced-in-all-ukrainian-oblasts) in all Ukrainian oblasts due to cold weather.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov spoke with Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin before the next meeting in the Ramstein format
The next meeting in the Ramstein format will take place on January 20, the press service of the Ministry of Defense of the Federal Republic of Germany.

With the decision to send wheeled tanks to Ukraine, Macron broke an unspoken taboo, this could become an example for other Western allies, – The Telegraph
Journalists believe that the transfer of AMX-10RC is associated with a change in the policy of the President of France regarding support for Ukraine. This may indicate that Macron no longer sees the point in wooing Putin for peace.

US discusses with Italy a new package of assistance to Ukraine and the transfer of air defense SAMP-T, – La Repubblica

The Bradleys are already in Bulgaria

Poland will not be the one to transfer Leopard tanks to Ukraine. We are building a broad coalition, – Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki [BUT it is clear that negotiations among several countries are ongoing]

World food prices hit record levels in 2022, – UN
The growth in the cost of products was primarily affected by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine
The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks international food prices, averaged 143.7 points in 2022, up 14.3% from 2021. This is the highest figure since registration began in 1990.

❗️Russia violated 'ceasefire' it declared: Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia Laura Cooper

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's Office accuses Russia of prolonging the war
"Russian bombing is prolonging this war and making any negotiations difficult," Turkish leader spokesman İbrahim Kalın said.
According to Kalın, now it is worth focusing on:
▫️withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of Ukraine;
▫️exchange of prisoners;
▫️creation of a security zone around the Zaporizhzhia NPP;
▫️Grain Agreement. [prolonging? Starting and prolonging it seems more accurate to me]

Belarus actually legalized digital piracy: the new law allows the use of films, music, and computer programs in the country without the consent of their foreign copyright holders.

During the "truce," in Zaporizhzhia region the Russians fired on the UN humanitarian mission, — the head of the Regional Military Administration, Oleksandr Starukh

Live Ukraine Telegram

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban believes that the West has started a new "Cold War". According to him, Hungary should maintain relations with the East, not to enter into confrontation and claim the role of a regional leader.

A powerful defense system of several borders with a total length of about a thousand kilometers has been created around Kyiv. The entire border with Belarus is a continuous rubble, minefields. It takes a lot of effort to pass them.

A Chinese Student in Russia received a military draft in his mailbox. Now he is in panic.

Greece is ready to give up German Marder infantry fighting vehicles in favor of Ukraine - Die Bild. [they have some on order but are willing to wait if Germany sends the vehicles to Ukraine]

An unusual heating point was arranged in Bucha - in a Kazakh yurt
The opening of the "yurt of invincibility" took place thanks to the support of the Embassy of Kazakhstan. [which must have been governmentally approved ... Kazakhstan is really quietly defying Russia]

Lower troop losses again today than the recent week or so

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar thanks for the key takeaways.

The Bradleys are already in Bulgaria

Wow, that's quick. No flies on the US.

A Chinese Student in Russia received a military draft in his mailbox. Now he is in panic.

Wonder whether China will intervene in this situation. It will probably be resolved on the quiet.