Ukraine Invasion: Part 36

[MagicFox]

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 Thanks as usual to all contributors and lurkers

UNCONFIRMED reports that Surovikin, current overall commander of the Russian forces and the Butcher of Syria, has been replaced by Gen. Yevgeny Nikiforov, the 4th person to have taken this position since the invasion of Ukraine started.

www.jpost.com/international/article-726356

It was supposed to have happened a few days ago and no one else has mentioned it so it may be inaccurate.

Wow really? If true, I wonder why. The ‘special military operation’ did seem to have a bit more direction with the Dr Evil lookalike at the helm.

yeah, Im not sure it's accurate since no one else is reporting it. You'd have expected more of a splash.

ISW Key Takeaways
www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement that Russian forces will conduct a 36-hour ceasefire in observance of Russian Orthodox Christmas is likely an information operation intended to damage Ukraine’s reputation.

Putin’s framing of the ceasefire on religious ground reinforces another Russian information operation that falsely frames Ukraine as suppressing religious groups and positions Putin as the true protector of the Christian faith.

Putin has not changed his fundamental maximalist objectives in Ukraine.

Wagner Financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that prisoners who volunteered with the Wagner Group in Ukraine received pardons, likely in a bid to inflate his influence and political power, strengthen Wagner Group’s prisoner recruitment, and reassure Wagner Group criminals in uniform.

Russian forces continued limited counterattacks to regain lost positions along the Svatove-Kreminna line, and Russian forces claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the area.

Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a successful counterattack as Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut and west of Donetsk City.

Russian forces continued to operate sabotage and reconnaissance groups on the Dnipro River and reinforce positions in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast.

Russian milbloggers claimed recent Russian successes in Zaporizhia Oblast, likely to distract from the slow Russian offensive around Bakhmut that may be culminating.

Mobilized Russian servicemembers likely continue to represent an outsized portion of Russian military casualties in Ukraine.

+++

As Battle of Bakhmut nears culmination, Ukraine’s artillery gasps for more ammo (kyivindependent.com/national/as-battle-of-bakhmut-nears-culmination-ukraines-artillery-gasps-for-more-ammo)

⚡️Russian media: Putin requests (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russian-media-putin-requests-orthodox-christmas-ceasefire-on-front-line-in-ukraine) Orthodox Christmas ceasefire on front line in Ukraine.

⚡️Belarusian Defense Ministry: Russian troops continue (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/belarusian-defense-ministry-russian-troops-continue-to-arrive-in-the-country) to arrive in the country.
In addition to coordinating combat activities, joint flight and tactical training will also be held to increase the combat readiness of air units from both countries, the ministry added.

⚡️Anti-drone tools, logistics equipment among new batch (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/anti-drone-tools-logistics-equipment-among-new-batch-of-german-military-aid-to-ukraine) of German military aid to Ukraine.
The aid package includes rocket launchers mounted on pickup trucks, drone detection systems, reconnaissance drones, tracked and remote controlled infantry vehicles for support tasks, anti-drone sensors and jammers, and other assorted support vehicles and equipment.

⚡️General Staff: Russian troops focus efforts (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-staff-russian-troops-focus-primary-efforts-on-capturing-donetsk-oblast) on capturing Donetsk Oblast.
According to the Ukrainian military, Moscow's forces attacked Bakhmut, 12 settlements nearby, and four settlements near Lyman.

Russian forces have damaged 1,189 cultural sites in Ukraine since Feb. 24. Over a third, 446, were completely ruined, Culture Ministry said.

kyivindependent.com/national/covered-by-dead-bodies-of-his-relatives-4-year-old-boy-survives-russian-attack

⚡️US, Germany announce more military aid (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/us-germany-announce-more-military-aid-bradley-af-vs-additional-patriot-battery) – Bradley AFVs, additional Patriot battery.
The U.S. will provide Ukraine with 50 Bradley tracked armored fighting vehicles worth $2.8 billion, while Germany greenlighted the shipment of its Marder infantry fighting vehicles.
Germany will also provide Ukraine with an additional Patriot air defense battery, according to the Chancellor's Office.

⚡️Lukashenko signs law allowing to deprive Belarusians of their citizenship for extremism (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/lukashenko-signs-law-allowing-to-deprive-belarusians-of-their-citizenship).

⚡️CNN: Pentagon considers training (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/cnn-pentagon-considers-training-ukrainian-soldiers-on-patriot-in-us) Ukrainian soldiers on Patriot in US.
It’s expected to take a few months to train the Ukrainians to operate the Patriot, which typically takes 90 troops, the Pentagon has said earlier. [...sooo ... have Ukrainians been trained for the last few months somewhere, given that they now have 1 patriot?]

⚡️Reuters: US believes (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/reuters-us-believes-putin-ally-prigozhin-wants-control-of-salt-gypsum-mines-in-bakhmut) Putin ally Prigozhin wants control of salt, gypsum mines in Bakhmut.

⚡️Japanese PM invited (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/japanese-pm-invited-to-visit-ukraine) to visit Ukraine.

gaah misclick, posted too early

⚡️ Ukraine ranks 15th (kyivindependent.com/national/ukraine-ranks-15th-among-worlds-strongest-armies-in-global-firepower-index) among world's strongest armies in Global Firepower 2023 index.
In the last year index, Ukraine's army was ranked 22nd.
Meanwhile, Russia maintained second place in the ranking.

⚡️ Politico: US to give Ukraine (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/politico-us-to-give-ukraine-first-sea-sparrow-anti-air-missiles) first Sea Sparrow anti-air missiles.
Sea Sparrows can be launched from the sea or ground to intercept aircraft or cruise missiles. The U.S. and most allies use the ship-mounted version. Ukraine is expected to use the ground-launched version.

⚡️
Ukraine's Deputy PM Iryna Vereshchuk warns of Russians planning to attack churches (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraines-deputy-pm-warns-of-russians-planning-to-attack-churches-during-christmas-service) in occupied territories during Christmas service.

Less personnnel but notably more hardware, incl 1 plane, 1 helicopter and 38 vehicles! There are rumours of a few Ukrainian hits on crowded Russian store areas

Interesting article in the FT about how little Moscow is affected or cares

A Moscow diary: fear, loathing and deep denial
Champagne still flows at elite parties in the Russian capital, as cowed critics only speak openly in their own homes

www.ft.com/content/fb2186cc-d61d-47f0-8886-abd94c27df96

The FT correspondent Max Seddon was amazed that none of his Kremlin-connected contacts, including the head of one of Russia’s largest sanctioned companies, have any idea who Olga Skabeyeva, the rabid Russia propagandist known as the 'Iron Doll', even is.

"At first, I’m stunned: Skabeyeva’s TV talk show whips up nationalist fervour against Ukrainians, whitewashes Russian war crimes, and crows about the likelihood of nuclear war for several hours each day. She’s one of the most recognisable figures on Russian TV. But as I do my rounds of Kremlin-connected types, I hear that most of them don’t know who Skabeyeva is either. Some admit that this wilful blindness is a coping mechanism, a way to shut out the horrors of war and ignore their own helplessness to change it. “People are doing deals and going to weddings in Kyiv. Why can’t they do that in Moscow too?” a former official says. “Why change our plans now? We have to live for today.”

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar , from your takeaways.

Utterly heartbreaking

kyivindependent.com/national/covered-by-dead-bodies-of-his-relatives-4-year-old-boy-survives-russian-attack

Next to the partially destroyed building, standing on a pile of broken bricks, was a small child – her friend’s four-year-old grandson Mykyta. His winter jacket was torn, but he was not crying.
“I asked him where his grandmother was,” Voshchana recalls. “He said, so quietly: ‘She is dead.’”
...
The young boy had crawled out from underneath his family’s dead bodies. Injured, cold, and scared, he wandered alone among the rubble that was left of his grandparents’ home until Voshchana found him.
“When I took him in my arms, he said: ‘I have been waiting for you for so long. I knew that you would save me,’” she says.
...
Mykyta’s cousin, Daria Sviatenko, says Mykyta understands that his loved ones were killed and that he misses them a lot. “He does not cry, but he understands everything.”
Sometimes, she says, Mykyta opens up and talks about the tragedy.
“I only survived because my mama and sister covered me,” he once said.

Here's an article with more details about the new aid package that includes the Brads, the prospect for tanks, and some additional air defense missiles Ukraine is receiving. Ukrainian boffins have modified their BUK air defense units to fire the Sea Sparrow missile, which NATO has a deep stock of. Reportedly the radar frequencies just had to be adjusted.

Biden will send Bradley Fighting Vehicles to Ukraine. And tanks could be next. - The U.S. so far has declined to send the Abrams tank. But the latest move could pave the way for sending more armor to Kyiv.

Apologies if I seemed a bit overly excited about the news regarding the Bradleys being deployed. A few hundred could be game changers on the ground, just as Javelins and HIMARS have been. They are really badass combat vehicles. I've also long been a huge admirer of US Army General Omar Bradley. I read his autobiography, A Soldier's Story, many years ago. He was humble, a brilliant tactician, and a natural leader who looked like a shop clerk. The Germans laughed at him until they fought him, then they feared and respected him. He once said the following about the problems caused by the US Army troops stationed in England in the lead-up to D-Day,

The Yankee invasion had come to England well heeled with American dollars. American privates earned three times as much as their British companions. A U.S. staff sergeant's take-home pay equaled that of a British captain. Since such a substantial share of this wealth was invested in local courting, it is no wonder that Britain's provincial customs were given a fancy whirl. Indeed, it is a tribute to the civility of the British that they endured us with such good will.

He was such a fine man, and I'm so pleased that the combat vehicle named in his honor will be saving Ukrainian lives and helping them onward to victory.

@MissConductUS appreciate the background on the Bradleys. They do sound like the next gamechanger on the battlefield. I hope they overrun the front lines and help UAF to push forward on areas where it has stalled and Russians have dug in.

I had a peek at the video on the Bradleys you linked to below. Nice piece of kit. Cute compartment at the back where it fits the 'grunts'. Did I hear that right?
Must be military lingo.

Gen Omar Bradley sounds like a brilliant unassuming man and a real gent from his time. His reference to "local courting" is his polite and understated way of saying "Overpaid, Oversexed, and over Here: The American Gi in World War II".

Fancy a bit of woo? podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/new-thinking-allowed-audio-podcast/id1435178031?i=1000592508427

(For context, Jeffrey Mishlove is a well-respected scholar on consciousness. His podcast is my guilty pleasure and when this came up yesterday I was 😳)

I've just lost the respect of the thread haven't I 😂

This made my stomach turn a hundred times over. Absolutely bloody heartbreaking 💔 My son is 4 next month.

Fuck

www.reuters.com/technology/twitter-hacked-200-million-user-email-addresses-leaked-researcher-says-2023-01-05/

Predictable but all the same, fuck.

@katem98 just realised you posted. Heartbreaking isn't it. Makes you hug your own child closer, thank God we live in a peaceful society and want to support Ukraine more.

Nice piece of kit. Cute compartment at the back where it fits the 'grunts'. Did I hear that right? Must be military lingo.

Yes. you did. Army infantry are grunts, Marine infantry are jarheads or leathernecks, Air Force fighter pilots are zoomies, etc.

On the naval side, surface warfare types call the submariner comrades "bubbles". Submariners call surface warfare types "targets". 😁

@katem98 my little girl is 4 and it’s unthinkable isn’t it! I rewatched the Mariupol documentary last night as well as the Ukraine the People’s War one and just made me so thankful we’re currently safe. I don’t think I’ll ever take freedom and safety for granted again.

My little girl is also 4 (in just a couple of weeks) and i had to work really hard to push that out of my mind last night. How can you not imagine your own child in that scenario and feel total horror. It's too much and the impulse is not to read and look away but humanity really needs to understand the horror of what is happening in the hope of stopping this (something proven by the horrible thread about not funding Ukraine that was live)

Oh they’re still at it on that other thread. It’s utterly jaw dropping.

Yes all, utterly horrific. Some of the things I have read I can genuinely feel my heart getting heavier doesn't even bear thinking about does it. I think I've always lived a pretty sheltered, ignorant life so reading these things are truly shocking and beyond comprehension.

I really struggled with the images that came out of Syria and I’m ashamed to say I think it was largely triggered by the fact the children looked like my older DD. It makes it so much more real when you can see your own family represented.

Yes there is a heavy panicky weight on my chest all the time : it's not a good thing to understand that the world we have brought our children into is not the one that we thought it was. I think children do this to you anyway but in our current state the feeling is a million times more oppressive

Not at all, I love a bit of woo! I just listened to and liked that episode, so I'm now following your guilty pleasure podcast.

May I suggest a few from my feed? Try Cabinet of Curiosities, Grim and Mild, Haunted Happenings, and Paranormal Mysteries. There's also Haunted Roads, but I think she's on hiatus for a bit. The old episodes are fab though.

@MissConductUS ooh thanks I will!

I think, actually, that historically we are living in one of the most peaceful eras with millions and perhaps billions living in more stable societies post WW2. there are proxy wars but I don't know if there are any longer periods of peace for civilians in Western mainland Europe... ever? (Excepting the war in the former yugoslavia). Perhaps a historian would know better!

The stakes are higher now nuclear weapons are around but in fact, I suspect myself that the chances of them being used in this war are heavily reducing (though still not nil) and the fact that the West has not caved in to the threat of them by Putin actually improves long term matters.

I get the impression that war is also prosecuted better by -most- . Apart from the bestial countries like Russia, DRC and perhaps a couple more, civilians are targeted less than in the past?

That was the case but for how much longer? I think we've suddenly woken up to the idea that "never again" might not be that. My hope is that the shock of that realisation means we steer back towards it

I thjnk more diffaculties times are coming admittedly yes. The environmental changes are going to be a gigantic stressor and so are the societal and cultural consequences of the rich poor divide