ISW Key Takeaways
www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates
Russian President Vladimir Putin did not offer to negotiate with Ukraine on December 25 contrary to some reporting.
Putin is likely concerned over the lack of support for his war in Ukraine among elites and may be setting information conditions for the nationalization of their property.
Ukrainian intelligence reported that a Wagner Group-linked Russian officer was appointed commander of the Russian Western Military District (WMD).
Ukrainian strikes on legitimate military targets far in the Russian rear continue to be points of neuralgia for the Russian milblogger community.
Russian and Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian troops are fighting near Kreminna.
Russian sources claimed that Russian forces made limited gains northeast of Bakhmut.
Russian forces continued ground attacks on the western outskirts of Donetsk City.
Ukrainian military officials indicated that Russian forces may be concentrating some unspecified forces for offensive or demonstration operations in Zaporizhia Oblast and that Russian forces are attempting to conduct small-scale reconnaissance-in-force operations to reach right-bank Kherson Oblast.
Russian officials and nationalists began to criticize the Kremlin’s lenient migration and passportization policies for Central Asian migrants.
Russia is continuing efforts to consolidate control of occupied territories in Ukraine through the manipulation of citizenship procedures.
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Kyiv Indep Telegram
⚡️Turkish Transport Minister: Over 15 million tons (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/turkish-transport-minister-over-15-million-tons-of-products-exported-through-black-sea-grain-corridor) of products exported through Black Sea ‘grain corridor.'
Five hundred eighty-five cargo ships with more than 15 million tons of agricultural products have left Ukraine through the UN-backed “grain corridor” since August, Turkish Transport and Infrastructure Minister Adil Karaismailoglu said.
⚡️Governor: 'Fighting ongoing’ near Kreminna (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/governor-fighting-ongoing-near-kreminna-luhansk-oblast), Luhansk Oblast.
Ukraine’s Armed Forces are “not far from” the city of Kreminna, and “the fighting is ongoing,” Luhansk Oblast Governor Serhiy Haidai said on Dec. 26.
⚡️Bellingcat journalist who exposed Kremlin's crimes wanted (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/bellingcat-journalist-who-exposed-kremlins-crimes-wanted-by-russia) by Russia.
Russia's Interior Ministry has placed Bulgarian investigative journalist Christo Grozev on its wanted list, Mediazona, a Russian media outlet, reported on Dec. 26, citing the ministry’s database.
⚡️Ukraine seeks (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraine-seeks-to-have-russia-expelled-from-un-security-council) to have Russia expelled from UN.
Ukraine has called on United Nations member states to deprive Russia of its status as a permanent member of the UN Security Council and to expel it from the UN, Ukraine's Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Dec. 26.
⚡️Security Service uncovers (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/security-service-uncovers-scheme-for-men-of-draft-age-to-flee-ukraine) scheme for men of draft age to flee Ukraine.
According to the Security Service of Ukraine, under the scheme, two suspects in Chernihiv Oblast registered men as volunteers to help them illegally cross the Ukrainian border into the European Union.
⚡️Lithuania invites (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/lithuania-invites-zelensky-to-receive-freedom-award) Zelensky to receive Freedom Award.
Ukraine accuses Russia of delaying inspections of ships under grain deal (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraine-accuses-russia-of-delaying-inspections-of-ships-under-grain-deal)
According to Ukraine's Infrastructure Ministry, 99 vessels are currently waiting for inspection in the Bosphorus Strait, with 72 of them headed west to be loaded at ports and 27 already carrying Ukrainian agricultural products.
⚡️Ukraine aims for peace summit (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraine-aims-for-peace-summit-with-un-involvement-by-end-of-february) with UN involvement by end of February
In an interview with the Associated Press news agency, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that Russia could only be invited to such a summit if the country faced a war crimes tribunal first.
Governor: Over 60% of infrastructure in Bakhmut damaged or destroyed (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/governor-over-60-of-infrastructure-in-bakhmut-damaged-or-destroyed)
⚡️Demography Institute forecasts (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/demography-institute-forecasts-catastrophic-birth-rate-drop-in-ukraine-in-2023) 'catastrophic' birth rate drop in Ukraine in 2023.
There are risks that by 2030 the country's population will decrease to less than 35 million, according to Ella Libanova, director of the Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies.
Kuleba: Patriot missile battery will be operational (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/kuleba-patriot-missile-battery-will-be-operational-in-ukraine-in-less-than-6-months) in Ukraine in less than 6 months. [Wasn't expecting the delay to be as long as that!]
⚡️Zelensky: 9 million Ukrainians still without electricity (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zelensky-9-million-ukrainians-still-without-electricity) as of Dec. 26.
"But the number and duration of outages is gradually decreasing. I am grateful to each and every person who ensured this result,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said.
⚡️Governor: 18 remain (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/governor-18-remain-in-critical-condition-after-russias-dec-24-attack-on-kherson) in critical condition after Russia's Dec. 24 attack on Kherson.
According to the latest figures, 64 people were injured, 18 of whom are in critical condition, and 11 were killed, Kherson Oblast Governor Yaroslav Yanushevych said on Telegram on Dec. 27.
⚡️Defense Ministry: Russia looking to reach Donetsk Oblast (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/defense-ministry-russia-looking-to-reach-donetsk-oblast-border-by-end-of-year) border by end of year.
Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar also said that the city of Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast is Ukraine's "eastern fortress," where Russia has concentrated the most military equipment and weapons.
⚡️Russia purges (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russia-purges-non-kremlin-aligned-churches-from-occupied-territories) non-Kremlin-aligned churches from occupied territories.
⚡️Russia to block websites (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russia-to-block-websites-with-expressions-of-lgbtq-identity) with expressions of LGBTQ identity.
Serbia places (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/serbia-places-its-troops-on-kosovo-border-on-highest-level-of-combat-readiness) its troops on Kosovo border on 'highest level of combat readiness.'
⚡️Four Ukrainian soldiers killed (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/four-ukrainian-soldiers-killed-on-mission-inside-russia) on mission inside Russia.
Four Ukrainian soldiers were killed while on a special reconnaissance mission near Russia's Bryansk Oblast, located on Ukraine's northern border. [saboteurs]
⚡️ Germany allocates (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/germany-allocates-35-million-euros-to-support-children-in-ukraine) 35 million euros to support children in Ukraine.
UNITED24 Ukraine
Putin may use Iranian drones to destroy the Patriot system supplied to Ukraine, – Forbes
Rosatom expects exports to grow by 15% in 2023, although the portfolio of foreign exchange orders remained at the level of 200 billion — Reuters
The agency, citing Rosatom CEO Alexei Likhachev, notes that growth will occur primarily due to already implemented contracts, supplies of fuel, enriched uranium products, conversion services, as well as the construction of 23 nuclear power units in several countries.
Five lessons from the Russian invasion of Ukraine for the whole world – Financial Times
- "The Great War is back", countries must now responsibly manage their industrial capacity and huge stockpiles of weapons.
- "Strategic depth" of arms deliveries. Ukraine has already received more than $40 billion in military aid.
- Quality is more important than quantity. Logistics, troops, and equipment are useless if intelligence and command are weak or inadequate.
- Civil and war. Cooks, hackers, volunteers, ordinary people - they are all part of a large mechanism working for one goal.
- Multiple fronts of war throughout, with an emphasis on civil, government, and military interaction, not just tanks, missiles, and guns – this is the last and perhaps the most important lesson.
Kazakhstan will continue cooperation with Russia, but will not help circumvent sanctions against the aggressor, – Foreign Minister of the Republic Mukhtar Tileuberdi in an interview to the Japanese NHK TV channel
Ukraine won the battle of Kyiv, won the battle of Kherson, won the battle of Kharkiv. Ukraine defied Russia's expectations at every turn, – US President Joe Biden
The operator of Nord Stream, Nord Stream AG, preliminary estimates the repair of gas pipelines at $500 million
“While investigators are collecting evidence, Russia is slowly preparing to start repairing the gas pipeline. Nord Stream AG has begun to determine its cost and the cost of resuming gas transportation. One estimate starts at $500 million,” writes The New York Times, citing an informed source.
Russian experts are also investigating how long damaged pipes can withstand exposure to salt water.
Authorities investigating the circumstances of the explosions at both Nord Streams came to the conclusion that such sabotage could only have been organized at the highest level.
Türkiye refuses 86% of Russian oil after price restrictions and a ban on tanker insurance, Energy Intelligence
In December, the country received only two batches of Russian Urals oil with a volume of 1.7 million barrels.
Ex-richest deputy of Russia Pavel Antov died in India
Local publications NDTV and OdishaTV report that a Russian fell from the third floor of a hotel in Rayagada. Police are investigating the death as a suicide.
Two days earlier, another Russian, 61-year-old businessman Vladimir Bidanov, who is described in the media as a friend of Antov, died in the same hotel.
n June, an article appeared on Antov's WhatsApp account criticizing the shelling of a residential building in Kyiv by the Russian military. Later, the post disappeared, and the deputy himself called it a "technical error.
The European Commission transferred 66 million euros to Ukraine for the restoration of schools destroyed and damaged by the occupiers
The main factors that will determine the course of hostilities in Ukraine this winter — The Wall Street Journal
The American edition identified six key factors, namely:
▫️Weather. For a short period of frost, the ground did not have time to freeze, so even caterpillar vehicles practically do not move off-road. Therefore, the pace of hostilities is not so intense.
▫️Bakhmut. The battles for the city acquired a "psychological significance".
▫️Ukrainian offensive.
Most analysts believe that Ukraine this winter will retain the strategic initiative in the war.
▫️Prepared line of defense. The retreat from Kherson allowed the Russians to significantly shorten the front line and strengthen their defensive positions.
▫️Mobilized. The Russian military command plans to combine part of the reserves with those units that are already at the front for an offensive.
▫️Republicans come to power in the US Congress. Vladimir Putin does not lose hope that support for Ukraine will decrease significantly in 2023.
Israel fears handing over Iron Dome air defense system to Ukraine because Russia could get hold of it and pass information to Iranians for study — The National Interest
⚡️As a result of yesterday's explosion on an air base in Russian Engels, 5 TU-95MS were damaged, 17 servicemen were killed, 26 were injured, 3 of them were in serious condition, and the control room was destroyed.
There will be no free, normal relations with Russia for decades. The political system in the Russian Federation has completely degraded and must be completely changed, — head of the Bundestag Defense Committee Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann
Live: Ukraine
Rogozin is threatened with paralysis due to shrapnel wounds - Russian media.
"I am lying down, preparing for surgery... The fragment is in the cervical vertebra. It is impossible to leave it because of possible paralysis. And pulling it out is also a problem. They are thinking how to pull it out." [ex-Russian space program director who is a leader in the occupied territories].
Five drones launched from the DPRK crossed the airspace of South Korea, - the Ministry of Defense of South Korea.
It is also reported that a South Korean KA-1 attack aircraft crashed shortly after taking off from the base, trying to resist the UAV. The pilots survived.
Budanov: No traitors have been detected in the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine during the war [not a small claim, this]
Head of the Intelligence stressed that "internal security is constantly working in his agency"
📱Russian mobile operators failed to agree with Apple on the support of VoLTE and VoWiFi functions on their networks for the iPhone 14 line of phones.
The head of the private military company "Wagner" Yevhen Prygozhyn supports the idea of sending women prisoners in Russia to the war against Ukraine.
In particular, the deputy of Sverdlovsk region Vyacheslav Wegner addressed Prigozhin. Wegner stated that he had been approached by a group of women serving their sentences in the penal colony No. 6 in Nizhny Tagil, Sverdlovsk region. Allegedly, these women "are ready to go to the zone of special military operation as signalers, doctors, nurses" to assist the occupiers.
Literally, Prigozhin's answer: "I absolutely agree with you. Not only as nurses and signalers, but also in sabotage groups and sniper pairs.
Everyone knows that it was widely used. We are working in this direction. There is resistance, but I think we will push on."
NATO Secretary General expects Sweden and Finland to join the Alliance in 2023
Russians have once again changed the commander of the Western Military District, - Ukrainian Intelligence.
Serhiy Kuzovlev, who had been in charge for only a month, was dismissed from the post of the Western Military District Commander. Instead, it will be headed by Lieutenant General Yevhen Nikiforov.
India calls for immediate cessation of hostilities in Ukraine [hehehe, a surprise. India is getting very preferential oil rates, no? even if Ukraine is being pounded to hell] According to the website of the head of the Indian government, Narendra Modi also expressed India's support for any peace efforts and assured of India's commitment to continue to provide humanitarian assistance to the affected civilian population. [been no reports that I've seen so far of generators or other help being sent to Ukraine. Perhaps it has been, but like I say - no reports on the usual Ukrainian channels]
A new aircraft will be built from parts of the destroyed "Mriya"
Ukraine, together with Spain and Portugal, has submitted a joint bid to host the World Cup to be held in the summer of 2030, the UAF reports in its telegram channel
Olaf Scholz was criticized in Bundestag for lack of strategy in the issue of assistance to Ukraine
In Mariupol, the occupiers are demolishing a historic house with a clock and a studio of the outstanding artist Viktor Arnautov in Mariupol, according to adviser to the mayor of Mariupol Petro Andriushchenko
Washington Post Telegram
As Russia bombs Ukraine’s infrastructure, its own services crumble
(www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/25/russia-infrastructure-volgograd-perm-neglect/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)As Russia has launched relentless strikes on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, leaving millions without electricity, water and heat, towns across Russia have been beset by their own, utility-related disasters.
A huge gas pipeline explosion outside St. Petersburg last month, major fires in two separate Moscow shopping malls allegedly caused by dodgy welding, and faulty power grids that have left tens of thousands without heat and electricity are just some of the incidents reported since Russia’s efforts to obliterate Ukraine’s infrastructure that began in October.
In late October, two sewer pipes burst in the southern city of Volgograd, flooding several streets with feces and waste water, and leaving 200,000 of the 1 million residents without water or heating for several days.
Still more huge Russian personnel losses, presumably around Bakhmut.