Ukraine Invasion: Part 36

[MagicFox]

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 Thanks as usual to all contributors and lurkers

@blueshoes

I wonder how the tank brigade knew to disperse in time and wait out in the fields and forests surrounding Chernihiv.

Various sources (e.g. RUSI) have stated that the Ukrainian forces started to disperse some of their assets and stockpiles from fixed sites about a week before the invasion, the rate of movement increased with about three days to go and in some cases accelerated very rapidly in the hours before the invasion.

Even reading the reports in the MSM in mid Feb would have made such a course of action seem be sensible,and of course behind the scenes if the Ukrainians had any intelligence gathering capability advantage (human, signals, etc) they’d would have probably been picking up clues that the Russians were about to move.

Another Russian Pavel Antov has fallen out of a window I believe . They really need to brick up all the windows, they are so dangerous

Notimagain, thanks for the explanation. That is the sort of data of Ukraine preparing for an invasion which I suspected existed but did not know how to find, so thanks for the clarification. So great to have your sources and expertise.

I imagine that the fact the 1st Tank Brigade dispersed and preserved their assets must have been instrumental in changing the course of the war, at least in the early stages when everyone assumed Russian would have a walk over.

I was under the impression that Ukraine was caught unawares because the world's largest plane Antonov "Mriya" aircraft was destroyed in the early days of the war. I guess it was under repair and could not take off. I still smart at the wanton destruction of the dream.

There was a view that the Director in charge was a strong Russian sympathizer and that's why the Mriya was not moved to safety. Can't remember if he was actually arrested.

Our Ukrainian lady's sister gave me a big fluffy Mriya when she came to visit. There are plans to use the salveageble (sp) of the old one to build a new one.

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

Re Mriya and:

There are plans to use the salveageble (sp) of the old one to build a new one.

Some of specialist, niche, really heavy cargo/heavy freight people reckon the loss of that one hull has created some significant problems when it comes to moving some equipment around the globe (we're taking about big components for things like power stations and oil refineries) ...many of them are certainly keen to see a rebuild, so fingers crossed.

If that is true, how awful to betray Mriya. How does this person sleep at night?

I might be in the market for fluffy Mriya hot water bottle. Just an idea to raise funds to rebuild.

Ukraine has committed to rebuilding it, but it will cost .... a LOT

Made himself Leader for life, Covid policies, concentration camps (Uyghurs) Taiwan... i think 2023 will see China attack Taiwan and throw us into a situation far far more dangerous & economically damaging than what Putin has done.

The longer they wait, the more Taiwan will build up its defences.

Putin and Jingpin.... both mass murderers with no regard for human life, two sides of the same coin as my Gran would say.

Have a listen to the latest Sinica podcast which talks about the likelihood of a Taiwan invasion and about China post-Ukraine. In summary, these analysts believe that maintaining the status quo is in the best interests of China as well as the US and that both should/will kick the can down the road on Taiwan.
Obviously it's much more complex than this and I've had lots of worries about China over the last year but although they are in bed with Russia to some extent, China is always very much on its own in terms of self-interest. Xi is not in the strongest position right now thanks to civil unrest within China. It doesn't make sense for China or for Xi to move on Taiwan right now. Hopefully!

Made himself Leader for life, Covid policies, concentration camps (Uyghurs) Taiwan...

that doesn't really make him unstable ? it makes him undemocratic and controlling, but the Party and Xi Jingping's leadership is very stable in China. Stable enough that they -can- create concentration camps.

ISW Key Takeaways
www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that the Kremlin will continue to pursue a military solution to the war until the US accepts its demands and forcing Ukraine to do the same.

Lavrov stated that Russia is unable to work on any agreements with the West due to its supposed provocative actions.

The Kremlin will likely continue information operations to seek to compel the West to offer preemptive concessions and pressure Ukraine to negotiate.

The Kremlin is increasingly integrating select milbloggers into its information campaigns, likely in an effort to regain a dominant narrative within the information space.

Ukrainian forces have likely made more gains in northeast Ukraine than ISW has previously assessed.

Russian forces may be nearing culmination in the Bakhmut area amid continuing Russian offensive operations there and in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area.

Russian forces are maintaining their fortification efforts in southern Ukraine.

The Kremlin is continuing its efforts to publicly punish deserters and saboteurs.

Russian officials are intensifying efforts to deport children from occupied territories to Russia.

+++

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️ Ukrenergo: Power shortage in Ukraine ‘slightly reduced.’

⚡️ Ukraine retrieves bodies of 42 fallen soldiers on Dec. 27, Reintegration Ministry reports.
In total, the bodies of 869 Ukrainian soldiers have been returned since May.

⚡️ National Bank: Ukraine’s GDP to fall by one third (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/national-bank-ukraines-gdp-to-fall-by-one-third-in-2022-russian-attacks-on-energy-system-imperil-economy) in 2022; Russian attacks on energy system imperil economy.

⚡️Zelensky: Italy considers (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zelensky-italy-considers-supplying-air-defense-systems-to-ukraine) supplying air defense systems to Ukraine, following a conversation with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

Forbes: Ukraine’s wealthiest 20 lose over $20 billion due to Russia’s full-scale invasion (kyivindependent.com/national/forbes-ukraines-wealthiest-20-lose-over-20-billion-due-to-russias-full-scale-invasion)
Russia’s all-out invasion slashed the net worth of Ukraine’s wealthiest, destroying plants and factories and shrinking the country’s economy by a third.

⚡️Russia bans (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russia-bans-oil-exports-to-countries-that-impose-60-price-cap) oil exports to countries that abide by $60 price cap.
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin on Dec. 27 signed a decree to ban oil and oil product exports to countries complying with the West's $60 per barrel price cap on Rusian crude.
The Russian ban on crude oil exports will come into effect on Feb. 1, but the date for the oil products ban will be determined by the Russian government and could be after Feb. 1.

⚡️President’s Office: Russia shells (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/presidents-office-russia-shells-maternity-hospital-in-kherson) maternity hospital in Kherson.
Russian forces have shelled a hospital maternity ward in the liberated city of Kherson in southern Ukraine, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, a deputy head of the President’s Office, reported on Dec. 27. “Miraculously” there were no casualties despite there being 5 women and their babies there and 2 had been born in the bombed rooms just before.

‘Killed for nothing’ – Evidence of Russian war crimes emerges in liberated Chornobaivka

Ukraine war latest: Ukraine monitors potential border escalation from Belarus as Lukashenko, Putin vow closer ties (kyivindependent.com/national/ukraine-war-latest-ukraine-monitors-potential-border-escalation-from-belarus-as-lukashenko-putin-vow-closer-ties) [Ukraine feels this is a real possibility. the US seems to feel it's less likely, but not quite as unlikely as it was. Lukashenko's military don't seem keen though]

⚡️Russian-controlled church may lose (kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/russian-controlled-church-may-lose-control-of-part-of-kyiv-pechersk-lavra-on-jan-1) control of part of Kyiv Pechersk Lavra on Jan. 1.
Ukraine’s Culture Ministry will recommend terminating the Russian-backed church's lease on part of the Kyiv Pechersk Lavra, Ukraine's most important Orthodox monastery, Culture Minister Oleksandr Tkachenko said on Dec. 27.

⚡️UN: At least 6,884 civilians killed (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/un-at-least-6-884-civilians-killed-by-russias-war-against-ukraine) by Russia's war against Ukraine. [this is a pathetically woeful underestimate. there are tens of thousands of new graves in Mariupol alone]

⚡️Russia has damaged (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russia-has-damaged-more-than-700-critical-infrastructure-facilities-in-ukraine-since-feb-24) more than 700 critical infrastructure facilities in Ukraine since Feb. 24.

⚡️ Governor: Russia attacks (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/governor-russia-attacks-kherson-oblast-50-times-over-past-day) Kherson Oblast 50 times over past day.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Serbian armed forces have been put on alert on the border with Kosovo. Also, the President of the country Aleksandar Vucic ordered to put the police and other units of the security forces on alert and place them under the command of the Chief of Staff of the Army.

Russian media claim that Vladimir Putin called an 8-year-old girl from the occupied Zaporizhzhia region and asked her to send cucumbers that her family grows on the territory occupied by Russia.

Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan at a meeting with Putin directly expressed his complaints about the inaction of Russian "peacekeepers" in Karabakh, noting that they have not been controlling the critical Lachin corridor for 20 days

More bickering between Órban and Ukraine.

Russian archpriest Andrey Tkachev advises his parishioners to go to war and die there rather than choke on vomit from excessive drinking or because of a bad selfie

Three Belarusians, who in the first days of the Russian invasion tried to prevent the transportation of military equipment towards Ukraine, were sentenced to prison terms of 21 to 23 years [the price of standing up to dictators is very, very high]

Chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine Kyrylo Budanov visited the advanced positions of the Ukrainian Defence Forces in Bakhmut

UNITED24 Media

Russia's top leadership "heard" the world's reaction to nuclear threats, although they did not speak about it directly, said Josep Borrell.

At the front, Ukrainian monitoring groups spotted the Russian Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft missile and gun system intended for export
Noteworthy is the unusual camouflage characteristic of the Iraqi Armed Forces.
According to observers, this may indicate that the Russian Federation is violating export obligations to cover the shortage of air defense systems in the combat zone.
“This is another proof that the enemy has suffered serious losses of short-range systems,” the monitors emphasize.

❕Sweden allocated more than $19 million to Ukraine, — Ministry of Defense of Ukraine
The funds will be directed to the UK-led International Fund for Support to Ukraine and aimed at strengthening the military potential of Ukraine.

The flow of foreign tourists to Russia in 2022 fell by half
Market participants complain that this year there were no mass trips of groups to the Russian Federation.
Foreigners came only for business meetings and as individual tourists.
According to Russian tour operators, tourists stopped coming to Russia for four reasons: difficulties in obtaining visas, a ban on flights, the impossibility of using international bank cards, and also the “negative information background around the country.”

At the Russian airfields "Engels" and "Dyagilevo" there are aviation groups of up to ten aircraft each — Ukrainian observation groups
After an attack on Engels on December 26, Russia transferred the remnants of its strategic aviation to the Far East.

Austria and other EU countries should prepare for a "hacker shutdown," Defense Minister Klaudia Tanner said in an interview with Welt

The European Parliament will not approve Georgia's application for EU membership if the republic's ex-president Saakashvili dies in custody [he's a pro-West politician who is, apparently, being slowly poisoned in prison. The photos of the difference from last year to this are stark]

🇺🇸The United States handed over to Ukraine two additional batteries of NASAMS air defense systems and missiles for them

The deputies propose to give an example: Finland may be the first in Europe to start supplying Ukraine with Leopard 2 tanks

In the city of Minami-Soma, located in the exclusion zone of the Fukushima nuclear power plant in Japan, they say they received a lot of help from Ukrainians after the accident caused by a powerful earthquake in 2011
Therefore, they decided to give 20% of the profit from the sale of these watches to help Ukraine.

❗️ The price of gas in Europe for the first time since February 22 fell below $850 per thousand cubic meters, according to exchange trading data.

Every 500 m of land in the Luhansk region is very hard given to the Armed Forces. Fierce battles are taking place near Kreminna, – said the head of the Lugansk Regional Military Administration, Serhiy Gaidai
“At the moment, the attacks of the invaders in the Belohorivka area do not stop, and Kreminna is a strategic settlement in the defense chain of the Russian army, and if it is lost, their grouping will be divided into two,” Gaidai said.

Crude oil from Russia is being shipped to India by tankers insured by Western companies, which could be the first sign that Moscow is backtracking on its promise to block sales under the G7 price cap
According to an analysis of shipping and insurance data, at least seven shipments of Russian oil have been loaded on tankers insured by Western companies since the price cap was introduced on December 5.
Under a restriction introduced this month, buyers of Russian oil can only access Western services, such as insurance and brokerage, which form the backbone of the world's offshore oil trade, if they can prove they paid less than $60 a barrel.

Because of the sanctions, Russia is forced to withdraw $4-5 billion from the National Wealth Fund every month to replenish the state budget — Ministry of Economy of Ukraine
The agency expects the Russian economy to contract by 5.6% by the end of 2023.

French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu has arrived in Kyiv, BFM reports

The BBC asked several military analysts how they think things will play out in 2023 and identified five scenarios:

▫️In the spring, the invaders will go on the offensive, and its result will be key, says Michael Clark, Deputy Director of the British Institute for Strategic Studies.

▫️Ukraine will win by fully restoring its territorial integrity no later than the spring of 2023, says Andrey Piontkovsky, a Washington-based scholar and analyst.

▫️There will be a long political, economic and military battle for political will. And by the end of 2023, it will most likely not end yet, predicts Barbara Zanchetta, a member of the Faculty of War Studies at King's College London.

▫️The advantage is now on the side of Ukraine and it will win this war, possibly as early as 2023, says the former commander of the US ground forces in Europe, Ben Hodges.

▫️The occupation of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions will continue, but a major Russian breakthrough is unlikely, Israeli military expert David Gendelman said.

No figures released yet.

released.

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar thanks for the key takeaways

The flow of foreign tourists to Russia in 2022 fell by half
Market participants complain that this year there were no mass trips of groups to the Russian Federation.
Foreigners came only for business meetings and as individual tourists.
According to Russian tour operators, tourists stopped coming to Russia for four reasons: difficulties in obtaining visas, a ban on flights, the impossibility of using international bank cards, and also the “negative information background around the country.”

I cannot believe that there are people who still want to visit Russia. Stroll around the Kremlin in Moscow, Hermitage Museum in St Petersburg? They must have interesting politics or been living under a rock.

The deputies propose to give an example: Finland may be the first in Europe to start supplying Ukraine with Leopard 2 tanks

What is the significance of Leopard 2 tanks. Seems to be some controversy around them. Are they a game changer?

In the city of Minami-Soma, located in the exclusion zone of the Fukushima nuclear power plant in Japan, they say they received a lot of help from Ukrainians after the accident caused by a powerful earthquake in 2011
Therefore, they decided to give 20% of the profit from the sale of these watches to help Ukraine.

Aw, nice.

Funnily enough I’ve always wanted to visit Russia as a tourist and the war hasn’t changed that. I think it’s because I have a deep interest in history and different cultures etc. and have always wanted to see Russia. I still hope I can visit in my lifetime.

Would really recommend the latest Doomsday Watch podcast, entitled “will Ukraine save the World”. The answer largely in the opinion of Arthur Snell and his guests is yes. One of the biggest things it has changed is to make more people realise that freedom isn’t free and that democracy is precious.

@blueshoes

What is the significance of Leopard 2 tanks. Seems to be some controversy around them. Are they a game changer

@MissConductUS will have the gen/more info I’m sure but AFAIK it’s the first time anybody has offered to send Main Battle Tanks, certainly of western origin, to Ukraine.

Rumoured to be a good piece of equipment.

Yes I second this, it's a great episode

Agree with this. Russian is on my wish list too, never having visited. The historical buildings are on such an impossibly grand and large scale, it almost seems like an imperialist sci-fi landscape to me now. After a regime change ... cannot bring myself to buy rubles at this point.

Notimagain, thanks for the explanation. Hopefully Ukraine gets overrun with leopards.

It's at the 'suggesting/pushing' for it stage, not at the commitment stage. I suspect this is one of the snippets of info that is only just beyond the wishful-thinking stage.

I don't have a subs to the Washington Post, can anyone access this and see how reliable it is?

previously Ukraine has indicated 1:6 Ukrainian/Russian personnel losses. They seem to more honest than Russia (not hard, really) but even so, it would be helpful to hear the WP's reasoning behind the claims of 100,000 Ukrainian dead www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/11/10/number-russian-troops-killed-injured-ukraine/

WP does not shed any light. It is an older article from 10 Nov. I remember reading US General Mark Milley's comments and wondering myself.

I don't have a WP sub but was able to get into the link. Here is the full article (PS mn formatting functionality is diabolical but might just be me):

‘Well over’ 100,000 Russian troops killed or wounded in Ukraine, U.S. says
By Dan Lamothe, Liz Sly and Annabelle Timsit
Updated November 10, 2022

As many as 200,000 soldiers have been killed or wounded on both sides in the nearly nine months since Russia invaded Ukraine, according to the Pentagon’s top general — a staggering number that highlights the immense suffering of a war with no end in sight.
The Pentagon assesses that over 100,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or injured and “probably” an equivalent number of Ukrainian soldiers, Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said at an event in New York on Wednesday night. An additional 40,000 Ukrainian civilians have also died or been injured, and as many as 30 million have been forced to flee their homes, he said.
“There has been a tremendous amount of suffering,” Milley said.
The Pentagon did not explain how it counted the casualties and they could not be independently verified by The Washington Post. [emphasis mine] The last official figure issued by Russia’s Ministry of Defense in September put the number of Russian dead at 5,937 — which military experts and Western officials say grossly underestimates the country’s losses.
Ukraine has released no casualty figures for its own troops. President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed in interview with CNN earlier this week that Russia’s casualty rate was ten times higher than that of Ukraine.
Officials in Kyiv were quick to dispute Milley’s assessment on Thursday. “We do have losses and every single life lost is a tragedy,” said Yuriy Sak, an adviser to the Ukraine Defense Ministry. “But we do have less casualties because we are not using meatgrinder tactics, and our priority is saving soldiers’ lives.”
Russia orders its troops to withdraw from Kherson in a new setback for Putin
The Pentagon figures nonetheless hint at the ferocity of the battles that are raging along a vast, 1000-mile front line snaking around the eastern edges of Ukraine. Much of the fighting is being waged from World War I-style trenches in which soldiers dug into muddy fortifications endure relentless artillery bombardments until they are forced to retreat.
The casualty estimates suggest that in 260 days of war, an average of 769 soldiers have been killed or injured every day.
The losses on each side would be nearly twice as high the 60,000 Americans killed or wounded in 20 years of war in Iraq and Afghanistan, according to Defense Department statistics, and more than twice the 50,000 dead and wounded suffered by the Soviet Union during its ten year war in Afghanistan.
Volunteers Oleksander Rehotyn, 28, a doctor and Tetyana Odintsova, 29, a medic as they transport a Ukrainian soldier suffering from a head injury in Bakhmut, Donbas, Ukraine in August. (Heidi Levine for The Washington Post)
Nearly 70,000 Afghan soldiers and 50,000 civilians died over two decades of fighting with the U.S.-backed coalition. But those numbers are nonetheless dwarfed by the figures from Ukraine.
Other recent wars have been as bloody — but over a longer time frame, and with civilians bearing the brunt of the suffering. In Syria, the United Nations estimated that 400,000 people died in the first five years of the war, the vast majority of them noncombatants.
Milley suggested that the announcement by Russia on Wednesday of a retreat from Kherson and the approach of winter might offer a chance for negotiations. The Biden administration and other Western allies have recently been trying to nudge Ukraine to consider talks with Russia.
US privately asks Ukraine to show more openness to negotiations with Russia
The winter months, when temperatures in Ukraine routinely drop well below freezing, will likely bring a pause in the fighting as Russia seeks to regroup and refit, presenting “a window of opportunity for negotiation,” Milley said.
“There has to be a mutual recognition that a military victory is probably, in the true sense of the word is maybe not achievable through military means,” he added, “and therefore you need to turn to other means.”
But Ukraine’s recent sweep of victories, through Kharkiv in the northeast in September and now in Kherson to the south have left Kyiv in no mood for negotiations. Ukrainian officials say they are confident they can achieve a full military victory over Russia on the battlefield and Zelensky has set preconditions for negotiations, including a full Russian withdrawal from Ukrainian territory and a promise of reparations — conditions that Russia would likely never accept.
Milley said the United States would continue to support Ukraine until their demands are met. “The United States is going to continue to support Ukraine and its fight for freedom,” he said. “If negotiations happen, great. If they don’t, they will likely continue fighting into the spring.”
The Kremlin has also signaled it is open to talks, but its own preconditions are at odds with those of Ukraine: After Russia illegally annexed four regions of Ukraine, Putin said that “the only way to peace” is for Ukraine and the West to recognize that the people of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia “have become our citizens, forever.”
Despite their vast differences, Milley said, both sides should pursue an end to the fighting.
“When peace can be achieved, seize it,” he said. “Seize the moment.”

Thanks @blueshoes !

That article sounds as if it supports negotiations, which is silly when you consider that Russia isn't even remotely interested in them but only pushes for it to get what they want and then rebuild.

“We do have losses and every single life lost is a tragedy,” said Yuriy Sak, an adviser to the Ukraine Defense Ministry. “But we do have less casualties because we are not using meatgrinder tactics, and our priority is saving soldiers’ lives.”

It's a good point.

I don't -want- to think that Ukraine might have lost 100,000 so I might be being a bit prejudiced!

The L2 would be a great choice for Ukraine. In addition to being a fine tank, it's widely used in Europe, including in Poland. So there will be mechanics and spare parts nearby.

It's a really interesting point...would I go to Russia as a tourist? My husband and I have wanted to go to Russia for many years and it was high on the list but now I'm not sure it's possible. I've heard too much (thankfully not seen) to feel able to make that visit. Similarly I don't want to be like the war generation in my family that refused to attend a wedding involving a German groom (this was 30 years ago) because my view is that forgiveness is crucial to a healthy future. But I have to be honest and say we would not go to Russia any time soon and there would need to be massive changes. On a personal note, a russian cyber attack on the healthcare industry this summer has put our vulnerable customers at risk and our business in the red for the first time in a decade. This is small fry to what Ukraine is going through on a daily basis but it sticks in the throat nonetheless.