Ukraine Invasion: Part 35

[MagicFox]

We're still here, on 35 🇺🇦

@Natsku everyone has it around here and it just doesn't budge. It doesn't even mildly improve. It's been a miserable term. Hope your DS improves soon!

There's an annoying thread on this where people are expressing utmost sympathy for him 🤢

Feel sorry for you all. DS is pretty cheerful with it so I don't think he's too bothered, just got another bug on top of it this week, and OH and DD both went down with tonsilitis. I feel lucky to have escaped, I bet it'll hit me on Independence Day next week and ruin our celebrations.

You’re always going to get one or two I’m afraid but yes.

Sympathies to everyone ill. I can’t stop coughing either 💐 driving me potty.

it's nonsense.

It comes from the SVT Telegram channel which is a wonderful work of wish fulfilment. Either that it's from one of his bodyguards with a really exceptional way or writing perfect and eloquent English.

There have been a lot of fanciful tales on it, only one of which might have had a grain of truth about one of Putin's official cars being rammed when a bodydouble was in it. The rest, well, lovely wishfulfilment.

Dear subscribers and guests of the channel!

Yesterday, Russian President Vladimir Putin had a very difficult day, which ended quite dramatically.
Wednesday morning began for Putin with a depressing report on the state of the Russian economy and, as a result, a forecast of worsening the situation in the near future.
The sanctions imposed on Russia due to the invasion of Ukraine have a heavy impact on the country's economy and the effect of these sanctions is growing and intensifying over time.
The main problems in the Russian economy, according to the forecasts of the authors of the report, will come in the late spring-early summer of next year, and it is not possible to avoid a negative scenario today.
It should be noted that the forecast was made without taking into account the possible announcement of general mobilization in the country and martial law, which Vladimir Putin has in his plans, which will undoubtedly only worsen the likely scenario.

In the afternoon, Putin was upset by the news from the front.
Promises by the leadership of the military bloc to capture several settlements before the start of winter, including Bakhmut (called Artemovsk in reports to Putin), in the Donetsk region of Ukraine, were not realized.
Moreover, yesterday the leadership of the military bloc was not ready to guarantee the president a significant advance on any sector of the front before the New Year.
Putin was informed that the cold snap, which is predicted for early December in the Luhansk region, could be used by the Armed Forces of Ukraine for an offensive, and in this case, it would be very problematic to keep territories in the north-west of the region.

In the evening, Putin had a telephone conversation with President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev.
The conversation touched upon plans for the future and the development of joint projects.
No agreements were reached as a result of the conversation, or rather, they agreed to negotiate.

Truly dramatic events for Putin took place in the evening at his residence.
Going down the stairs, Putin stumbled and fell to his back, after which he fell on his side and slid down a couple of steps.
The incident took place in front of the president's bodyguards, who reacted quickly and rushed to Putin's aid.
Three security officers helped the president to get to the nearest sofa and called the doctors who are on duty at the residence.
Medics arrived within a few minutes, but could not immediately examine the president.
Putin suffers from oncology of the gastrointestinal tract, as a result of which he already experiences serious problems with digestion, and as a result of the fall, as it turned out, the main blow fell on the coccyx, which probably caused sharp pain, provoking involuntary defecation.
If Putin used to wear special waterproof underwear with an absorbent effect, then, lately, he neglects these precautions, as it turned out in vain.
Before the examination, the doctors escorted the president to the bathroom and helped to clean up, and at the same time conducted an initial examination.
After a complete examination, a bruise of the coccyx and soft tissues was diagnosed.
Nothing critical, the president's health was stable closer to the night, he can move independently, complaints of pain in the coccyx, in a sitting position - the only thing that worries Putin, he took painkillers at night.
In the near future, an investigation will be carried out, which provoked the fall of the president.
He wears special shoes, even at home, with anti-slip coating, and the stairs in the residence are considered "safe".
As it turns out, all precautions are meaningless when nerves are at stake.

There are unconfirmed rumours of a Ukr breakthrough near Svatove and Kreminna.

Will do some digging.

That uptick in deaths would suggest somethings afoot even if its due to hypothermia rather than military causes.

Michael McKay At Mhmck
The ground has frozen in Luhansk oblast. Ukrainian armour that was mired in mud a few weeks ago now has improved agility for offensive operations. Positions of the Russian fascist invaders on the Svatove-Kreminna front cannot be held for much longer, particularly along Route 66.

This matches footage on twitter with snow / ice on ground. Crucially this footage includes vehicles moving freely.

The weather forecasts being shown suggest that the current cold snap is likely to be short lived.

Russian channels seem to be worried about something near Kreminna today.

You'd expect if weather window is allowing for movement now but the prognosis coming up is less favourable, that if Ukraine are going to try and make a move they are going to do it now.

Noise does seem to suggest that something is possible and may be happening but I can't see anything firm just yet. We tend to have a 24 to 48hr lag min though between action on ground and something becoming tangibly believable.

Will keep watching this weekend.

Day 281, December 1st. Summary of Arestovych and Feygin daily broadcast
Posted on 02 December 2022

🔥 Battlefield update:

🔥 Zaporozhye: reports of 🇷🇺 regrouping, likely they are building a defense.

🔥 Avdiivka-Bakhmut: 🇷🇺 trying to capture Donetsk district, which is impossible. 🇷🇺 won’t capture even Bakhmut or Avdiivka, but they were trying hard. They rushed to capture them, before 🇺🇦 forces become available after liberating Kherson. 🇷🇺 once again didn’t realize their objectives and lost initiative.
On the 10th month of largest continental war since WW2, with high stakes, 🇷🇺 military are publicly arguing between themselves for 3rd day in row, if they have captured Kurdiumivka or not.
🇷🇺 will restore and replenish their units, and attempt again, but they have lost ability to complete objectives. There are 8 🇺🇦 brigades becoming available from Kherson, that’s it.

🔥 Predictions:
Likely 🇷🇺 will attempt to advance in east, get kicked back, loose offensive potential and switch to defense. Then something like Kharkiv or Kherson operation (or two) will happen during winter, and in February 🇷🇺 solders will be “warm”. Any idiot in 🇷🇺 will understand, that war is lost by then. War can still last quite a while after that, but nobody would believe in victory, or even acceptable format of loss by 🇷🇺 anymore.

🔥 Wagner and mobilized:
🇷🇺 concentrated all possible forces after Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk, they got everything – all artillery, all aviation, all tanks, broke the constitution and international laws to recruit criminals in order to show how to capture Bakhmut, and now nothing.
Mobilized can’t capture anything, they can only do simple tasks of attacking or defending in straight line. For battalion to perform 2-step action, they need training of 4 months, that can perhaps be reduced to 2 months with very talented commanders. 2 weeks for draftees gives nothing.

🔥 National units:
Freedom of Russia Legion is fighting near Bakhmut, about week ago they cleaned out Wagner support point completely. One member of FoR legion killed, several wounded.
Bashkirian company established, separate from Freedom of Russia Legion.
There also is Turkic battalion named Turan.

🔥 Biden-Macron meeting
Macron: 🇫🇷 and 🇺🇸 will not push for negotiations with 🇷🇺.

Biden: Look, there’s one way for this war to end, the rational way, Putin to pull out of Ukraine, number one. But it appears he’s not going to do that. He’s paying a very heavy price for failing to do it. But he’s inflicting incredible, incredible carnage on the civilian population of Ukraine, bombing nurseries, hospitals, children’s homes. It’s sick what he’s doing. But the fact of the matter is, I have no immediate plans to contact Mr. Putin. Mr. Putin is– let me choose my words very carefully. I’m prepared to speak with Mr. Putin if in fact, there is an interest in him deciding he’s looking for a way to end the war. He hasn’t done that yet. If that’s the case, in consultation with my French and my NATO friends, I’ll be happy to sit down with Putin to see what he wants, has in mind. He hasn’t done that yet.
In the meantime, I think it’s absolutely critical what [? Emmanuel ?] said. We must support Ukrainian people. The idea that Putin is ever going to defeat Ukraine is beyond comprehension. full transcript]

🔥 International court
🇫🇷 France organizing international court. Peskov: Attempts to create tribunal will not be legitimate and recognized by 🇷🇺.
Creation of tribunal through 🇺🇳U.N Security council is impossible, due to 🇷🇺 having veto power, however 🇫🇷 organized tribunal will be legitimate in countries of participants (could be 🇺🇸 and 🇪🇺).
As none of existing courts have jurisdiction to trial government of independent country, there is separate tribunal created for one-time.
Universal justice doesn’t allow for predetermined decisions. 🇺🇳 is weak, and it’s impossible for everyone to agree on universal values.
Simonyan and others are constantly mentioning Hague tribunal, it seems they are on acceptance stage.

🔥 Bakhmut:
Smartest russians have already realized lack of perspective and guaranteed loss, trying to motivate with fear. 🇷🇺 couldn’t capture Bakhmut with concentrating 40 BTGs, artillery advantage 10 to 1 against 2 🇺🇦 brigades (equal to 6 BTGs).

🔥 Sanctions:
🇷🇺 propagandists stating, that sanctions will only work for 5 years.
However sanctions cut off possible routes of future development. 🇷🇺 could have developed high technologies or new methods of oil extraction, but now they are impossible due to limits of technology imports. Sanctions work for decades in future against income of hostile government.

🔥 Investigations in Russia:
Feygin plans to create special authority to investigators and courts in future 🇷🇺, to avoid investigations being dragged for years, if focusing on procedure instead of justice.

🔥 Mail bombs:
Mail bomb exploded at 🇺🇦 Embassy in 🇪🇸 Spain. Another mail bomb was received at military base. 🇪🇸 Spanish company supplying weapons received another mail bomb. 🇪🇸 MoD M. Robles expressed continuation of support to 🇺🇦. 🇷🇺 is doing everything to be labeled as terrorist, and not have anyone doing business with them.

🔥 Weapons:
🇺🇸 Biden requests new assistance package, valued $31.7 bn from which $21 bn to weapons, the rest for direct economic assistance.
🇺🇸 6 new NASAMS systems
🇮🇹 Italy extended plans of weapon supplies for all of 2023
🇩🇪 Germany prepared another package of assistance, including 7 Gepard air-defense systems, 100k medkits, 3 bridge-laying tanks, 8 drone ships, 14 vehicles for border guards, 14k sleeping bags, 30 ambulances and spare parts for Mi-24 helicopters
Nobody is limiting their supplies, it’s only about availability now.

🔥 Losses:
In follow up to yesterday’s question, 🇺🇦 M. Podolyak stated that 🇺🇦 losses are between 10k and 13k killed. This is now confirmed as official.
🇷🇺 losses can be figured, by reverting what 🇷🇺 claims as 🇺🇦 losses. Shoigu said 59300 on 29th of September.

And ISW Takeaways whilst Ducks is ill:

Key Takeaways

• Russia is attempting to capitalize on the Western desire for negotiations to create a dynamic in which Western officials feel obliged to make preemptive concessions to lure Russia to the table.

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated as the basis for negotiations precisely the same demands that the Russian Foreign Ministry had made before the February 24 invasion, and Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitrii Peskov added the further demand that the West recognize Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territory.

• Russian forces still pose a threat to Ukrainian energy infrastructure despite the success of Ukrainian air defenses.

• Additional Western air defense systems are prompting the Russian pro-war community to question the Russian air campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure.

• Russian officials are setting conditions to negotiate the demilitarization of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), an agreement upon which Russia would likely renege and that would not eliminate or diminish the ongoing threat to the ZNPP.

• Ukrainian forces made localized breakthroughs southwest and northwest of Kreminna.

• Russian forces continued to make minimal advances in the Bakhmut area and conduct offensive operations in the Avdiivka–Donetsk City area.

• Russian forces may be struggling to properly allocate and deploy forces in rear areas in southern Ukraine due to Ukrainian strikes.

• Poor logistics, unruly mobilized personnel, and domestic protests continue to prevent the Kremlin from achieving the goals of partial mobilization.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to attempt to mask military development projects in occupied territories for no obvious reason.

Thank you for the takeaways, get well soon Ducks ❤️

ty =)

Link to the next thread: Ukraine Invasion: Part 36 www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4690633-ukraine-invasion-part-36