Ukraine Invasion: Part 35

[MagicFox]

We're still here, on 35 🇺🇦

Day 276, November 26th. Summary of Arestovych and Feygin daily broadcast
Posted on 27 November 2022

🔥 Battlefield update:

🔥 Kherson:
Artillery duels, 🇺🇦 having an advantage due to HIMARS availability, however, shelling will continue, until 🇷🇺 is pushed back several 10s of kilometers.
Request to not ignore alerts and stay in bomb shelters, 17 civilians died in the last couple of days. Sirens are useless, as shells take 30 seconds between firing and hitting.

🔥 Vuhledar:
still clashes, 🇷🇺 not having success. Some 🇺🇦 actions interrupted chances to capture Vuhledar for foreseeable future.

🔥 Marinka-Bakhmut:
Active battles, especially southwest from Horlivka where 🇷🇺 have concentrated forces – regular, Wagner, draftees, and attempting to break frontline and cut off road Konstantynivka-Avdiivka.
🔥 Bakhmut-Soledar:
Familiar picture, several attacks during daylight, and several more layers [of bodies] in front of trenches.

🔥 Kreminna-Svatove:
An initiative of 🇺🇦, by short tactical level counter-attacks.

🔥 Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Nikopol, Zaporozhye:
Periodic bombing by 🇷🇺

🔥 Putin’s fake meeting with mothers:
According to Albert Speer, democracies can be harsh against their citizens during the war, but dictators are heavily dependent on population mood. This is why Putin makes regular fake meetings, pretends to listen to the population, and implements their desires. As mobilization discontent has reached significant levels, Putin himself pretends to address that. It’s possible that another wave of mobilization will happen.
There was mention of issues with winter uniforms. There are reports of 🇷🇺 soldiers in 🇮🇷 Iran uniforms.

🔥 Mood:
Infantry, sitting in mud will curse at commanders, logistics, and neighbors. Commanders at all levels curse Putin. However, 80% of citizens either support war or Putin or are in a state where it’s humiliating to not finish it. Perception of separate problematic issues is due to a lack of information.

🔥 Lack of information:
During the last trip to Europe, Arestovych met some people who called for “sober evaluations” of Bucha, Irpin, etc. They will have a separate boiler for them in hell. Apparently, they live in a separate information bubble. When confronted with proof of 90+ bodies in the Kherson city administration building, they tend to blame some individuals, instead of admitting systematic murder. This happens in Europe, even where enough information is present.
Even in Izium, there were people, who haven’t heard of the Bucha massacre 6 or 7 months later. Having access to phones and the internet doesn’t mean that everyone has access to information, to make informed decisions.
Russian population with constant propaganda has even less idea of what’s actually happening. Even people who understand horror, crimes, and everything, would support finishing war, as 🇷🇺 loss is unimaginable.

🔥 Belarus:
🇧🇾 minister of foreign affairs V. Makei, a close supporter of Lukashenka, died at age of 64. Likely his death was not a warning, as that would lead to a significant increase in security. It will be interesting to watch the consequences – who will be the new minister. Likely there won’t be significant international changes.
Threat from 🇷🇺 exists for over 20 years, it comes together with Lukashenka power.
🇧🇾 Belarus doesn’t join the war, because their military has taken a strong position of not joining the war. Makei would not have any influence in this.

🔥 Lavrov’s comments:
Lavrov predicts the failure of 🇺🇦 to liberate Crimea. Kremlin’s officials are used to mimic the speech of simple people, as a man in a smoking area would.
Countries with 60% of the world economy will anyway win over a country with a 1.5% share, no matter how long it takes.
Every Ukrainian understands the direct relation between Holodomor in 1932-1933 and the attempt at Holodomor in 2022. 🇷🇺 has changed multiple governments, but politics remain the same. Everyone understands what they are fighting for, everyone has centuries-old stories told by grandparents.
🇷🇺 has already retreated 5 times – Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kharkiv district, Kherson – only 5 more such retreats remaining until they break.
Putin and Lavrov are only trading for the price of their defeat.
🇷🇺 Army restoration is expected to be completed in January/February. When restored 🇷🇺 units will fail, 🇷🇺 has no further options. Their negotiating will be about capitulation then. Soon after that, there will be unconditional capitulation.
As soon as 🇺🇦 forces will reach Crimea entry, the Kerch bridge will be in the HIMARS range. Any supply ships and aircraft will be in the range too.
It will all start with the evacuation of FSB and officials, which is about to happen sooner than expected.

Not sure if this is the right thread to ask this on - please let me know if I should start my own?

Just I have been reading about the Russian attacks on Ukrainian power stations etc and am very aware that it's about to get very cold very quickly in Ukraine, putting the lives of many civilians, particularly the old, disabled or young children, at risk.

While this thread seems to be more about military issues, could anyone recommend ways that ordinary British MNetters can support Ukrainian civilians against the cold and dark? Are there any charities set up to support them we could donate to?Blankets, warm clothing, wind-up torches, solar-powered chargers or mini generators type of thing? Or anything else?

Thanks for any suggestions.

The wonderful @Hillsmakeyoustrong is doing a lot to support civilians, Warmanddry.

You could do an advanced search of her posts to get an idea, or PM her directly.

Warmanddry· Today 13:29
Not sure if this is the right thread to ask this on - please let me know if I should start my own?

Just I have been reading about the Russian attacks on Ukrainian power stations etc and am very aware that it's about to get very cold very quickly in Ukraine, putting the lives of many civilians, particularly the old, disabled or young children, at risk.

As well as Hillsmakeyoustrong or ReleaseTheDucksofWar whom you could pm, also notimagain suggested St Javelin (see image) I don’t have the link anymore but you could ask notimagain

DesdamonasHandkerchief · Today 13:24
Day 276, November 26th. Summary of Arestovych and Feygin daily broadcast
Posted on 27 November 2022

Thank you very much.

hey @Warmanddry :)

there is also twitter.com/ep_president/status/1595400963158048769?s=52&t=3UA_qOdcZGX15mTq0lXxOQ that our Kyivien friends showed me but frankly @Hillsmakeyoustrong is probably best as she has direct contacts.

Hi @Warmanddry I have PMd you.

Gratitude from me too to ReleaseTheDucks and Desdemona for the key takeaways and the Arestovych and Feygin daily broadcasts. I like the term 'scaffold'. They are my twin scaffolds on this thread. Also grateful to all the other contributors who fill in the gaps and ask questions.

@Warmanddry I have been in touch with Hills' local volunteer on the ground in Kharkiv. He has been arranging humanitarian drops in a big truck and crowdsourcing for specific equipment, with regular updates on social media like instagram, facebook and whatsapp. Hills has hopefully put you in touch. There are different ways to contribute, I am sure. This appealed because it seemed more immediate and direct.

@ScrollingLeaves and @blueshoes very welcome!

I have stepped back a little bit since getting in too deep a couple weeks ago, but it feels like doing these roundups is another way to help.

It does help, and I certainly appreciate it, Ducks.

I need to take a break every once in a while too.

Mobilised Russians in Sverdlovsk region are suffering from a mass outbreak of infectious disease, but doctors are unable to treat them due to a lack of equipment and medicine. This is likely the result of overcrowded, insanitary conditions at their training area

My guess would be antibiotic-resistant tuberculosis, which runs rampant in Russian prisons. It's another own goal by the Ru army.

Agree @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar and @MissConductUS i find sometimes I get a bit far down the rabbit hole and my mental health end up shot to shit. Time out is definitely needed. Though I accept it’s a luxury I possess that I can do that, something clearly those on Ukraine and other war zones can’t.

Yikes ... antibiotic resistant TB is nasty

@Igotjelly I was thinking the other day that we don't have to endure the conditions the Ukrainians do.

But if we did, we'd all be in shit alley. We wouldn't be able to support them. This is what they are fighting for: a quiet life.

The fight in Ukraine needs people who can walk away for a little and come back refreshed, to give more. If we all lived on the edge of survival as they have to, we would have nothing to give.

www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/27/alexei-navalny-aide-survival-depend-value-vladimir-putin?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Speaking if having a shit time of it, Navalny seems to be leading an absolutely horrendous existence.

I googled and Sverdlovsk is in Russia itself. It is pretty dire to not be able to offer medical treatment in your own country which is not even in the war zone. If it is infectious and antibiotic resistant, the the soldiers would need to be quarantined to avoid the infection spreading. But if the doctors cannot treat, then the soldiers will probably end up going home and spreading it to the general population. What a mess.

Has anyone seen any discussion about the impact of the protests in China? As in, is it likely to focus their attention on domestic affairs rather than international, or will they be looking for a cause to unify the population behind. Sorry, probably oversimplifying international relations there!

The head of #Ukraine’s nuclear energy provider says the company has received information that Russian forces may be leaving the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. “We are now observing signs that the Russian invaders may be preparing to leave.”

twitter.com/glasnostgone/status/1596941869614628867?s=61&t=LQBXUN1SuRiXWkFhrjVKcA

Let's hope this isn't in preparation for renewed bombing:

⚡️Zelensky: More Russian attacks expected as another difficult week begins.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Nov. 27 that Russia appears to be preparing for new attacks and it won’t stop until it runs out of missiles.

I don't think there'd be a baby and bathwater situation - that would just make Xi look even more out of control

DesdamonasHandkerchief · Today 00:57
^Zelensky: More Russian attacks expected as another difficult week begins.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Nov. 27 that Russia appears to be preparing for new attacks and it won’t stop until it runs out of missiles^

Will they run out, given they can get them from Iran and are also
adapting old nuclear ones?

The ISW is oddly truncated again today. I'll publish it in full:

ISW is publishing an abbreviated campaign update today, November 27. This report evaluates the defensive positions Russian forces are establishing in eastern Kherson Oblast and what those positions suggest about Russian expectations for future operations in this area.

The Russian military clearly assesses that Ukrainian forces could cross the Dnipro River and conduct counter-offensive operations in eastern Kherson Oblast, possibly threatening all of the critical ground lines of communications (GLOCs) from Crimea to the mainland. Russian forces have been digging trenchlines and concentration areas in eastern Kherson since early October 2022 in obvious preparation for the withdrawal from the west bank of the Dnipro River and Kherson City.[1] Russian troops are preparing either to defend in depth or to conduct operational or strategic delay operations. Russian forces clearly do not expect to be able to prevent Ukrainian forces from getting across the river, nor are the Russians prioritizing defensive positions to stop such a crossing. The Russian military is setting conditions for a protracted defense in eastern Kherson Oblast that could allow the establishment of a solid Ukrainian lodgment on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. The assessment that follows examines the Russian defensive laydown and evaluates the expectations for the flow of operations likely guiding that laydown exclusively. This assessment makes no effort to determine whether Ukrainian forces intend to cross or are capable of crossing the Dnipro River in this region and offers no forecast about whether or not they will make any such attempt.

+++

Kyiv Indep

⚡️ RFE/RL: Russia claims to have 'nationalized' (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/rfe-rl-russia-claims-to-nationalize-130-large-ukrainian-enterprises-in-crimea-in-november) 130 large Ukrainian-owned enterprises in Crimea in November.
These include a chain of DIY hypermarkets, a cement plant in Bakhchysarai, and shipyards in Kerch.

⚡️ Energoatom head: Russian forces may be preparing (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/energoatom-head-russian-forces-may-be-preparing-to-withdraw-from-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-power-plant) to withdraw from Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
Ukraine’s state nuclear energy operator head said the company sees the signs that the Russian troops may be preparing to leave the plant they've occupied since March.
[hope the fuck they don't rig it to explode or shell it]

⚡️ Ukraine's General Staff: Russia prepares to redeploy units from Belarus to Ukraine.
Up to 12,000 mobilized Russian conscripts are reportedly stationed in Belarus. Read more from the report (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraines-general-staff-russia-prepares-to-redeploy-units-from-belarus-to-ukraine).

⚡️Media: Russian transport aircraft visit China en masse, fuel speculation on military supplies.
Russian An-124 transport aircraft have visited China nine times over the past week, with some of them turning off their flight tracking devices, Defense Express, a Ukrainian military news site, reported on Nov. 27, citing videos published online.
Chinese commentators claimed that military equipment, bulletproof vests, helmets, and military clothing could be inside the planes, according to Defense Express.
Defense Express suggested that this could be evidence of Russia importing military equipment from China as it struggles to make progress on the battlefield in Ukraine.
[this could have international repercussions if proved since the US has been very clear on consequences if military aid is given to Russia. The huge unrest in China at the moment might be cause China to focus inwards at the moment, but I wonder if they might possibly increase contact with Russia somehow. This level of unrest in China is unprecedented in 30 years and there might be unpredictable consequences]

⚡️Governor: Power supply partially restored in liberated Kherson.

⚡️Interior Ministry: Only 3% of Russian attacks hit military targets.

Ukraine war latest: Russia ramps up attacks on Kherson, uses ‘terror tactics’ against civilians (kyivindependent.com/national/ukraine-war-latest-russia-ramps-up-attacks-on-kherson-uses-terror-tactics-against-civilians)

Russia is using its "terror tactics" to purposefully attack residential areas in the liberated territory of Kherson Oblast, where utilities are slowly being restored, the regional governor
(t.me/khersonskaODA/2057)said on Nov. 27.

⚡️Ukraine's grain exports will reach (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraines-grain-exports-will-reach-less-than-3-million-tons-this-month) less than 3 million tons this month.

⚡️UNHCR: 4.7 million Ukrainian refugees receive temporary protection status in Europe.

⚡️National Resistance Center: All Russian collaborators have left (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/national-resistance-center-all-russian-collaborators-have-left-nova-kakhovka-near-kherson) Nova Kakhovka near Kherson.
The Ukrainian military’s National Resistance Center believes the collaborators left the city in fear that Ukraine may soon liberate it from Russian occupation

⚡️Emergency blackouts resumed (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/emergency-blackouts-resumed-in-all-of-ukraine-on-nov-28) in all of Ukraine on Nov. 28.
The measures were resumed due to the rapid growth of the power deficit, which currently constitutes 27%, according to Ukraine’s state grid operator Ukrenergo.

⚡️Reuters: US considers (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/reuters-us-considers-giving-ukraine-100-mile-strike-weapon) giving Ukraine 100-mile strike weapon.
The Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB) system could be delivered to Ukraine in spring, according to a document acquired by Reuters. [note considers]

⚡️Foreign ministers of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Iceland visit Kyiv.

Live: Ukraine

Belgium will give Ukraine underwater drones
The Belgian Council of Ministers approved a new package of military assistance to Ukraine. It will include 10 underwater drones and two mobile laboratories.

Germany has handed over 10 additional Oshkosh tank tractors and 53 protected vehicles to Ukraine - German government website.
Germany is also preparing 14 more remotely operated tracked vehicles to be sent to Ukraine to support the supply.

🔻British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak intends to maintain or increase military aid to Ukraine next year - including new air defense systems

The military operation on the Kinburn Spit of Mykolaiv region continues, the work is very difficult, in particular due to specific weather conditions and talks that Mykolaiv region should be included in the grain corridor, she added

⚡️EU Council decides to include circumvention of sanctions imposed by the community in the list of crimes - report.

In Russia, banks refuse to grant loan repayment holidays to mobilized soldiers and their families - the Russian media.

Washington Post

• President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned Ukrainians to brace for more Russian airstrikes, as the country reels from a barrage of recent attacks that has left its civilian infrastructure in bad shape at the onset of winter.

• Across most of Ukraine the electricity situation is now “under control,” with only scheduled stabilization blackouts in effect, Zelensky said, after energy workers rallied to repair the damage from a barrage of airstrikes on infrastructure last week.

- The general staff of Ukraine’s armed forces repeated Zelensky’s warning about further strikes in an update Monday morning, saying critical infrastructure throughout Ukraine remains under threat.

Pressure builds to step up weapons tracking in Ukraine
(www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/11/27/biden-ukraine-weapons/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)
Emboldened by their success in the midterm elections, House Republicans, who will hold a slim majority in the next Congress, have warned the Biden administration to expect far-tougher oversight of the extensive military assistance it has provided Ukraine.

[losses higher again. Something seems to be happening]

Apologies if soemone's already posted this, but the Washington Post's artcle on the impact of sanctions on the Russian war machine

www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/11/26/russia-war-economy-military-supply/

Russian lend-lease to Ukraine.

news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-latest-putin-backs-down-on-key-aim-russia-burned-bodies-of-own-soldiers-at-landfill-site-in-kherson-12541713?postid=4960442#liveblog-body

Russia has unilaterally pulled out of Nuclear disarmament talks scheduled for this week with the U.S.

That's careless, the amount of equipment the Russians leave behind on retreat. Long may that continue.