Ukraine Invasion: Part 35

[MagicFox]

We're still here, on 35 🇺🇦

🇷🇺 total losses are over 100k killed and over 100k wounded.

That's staggering. Even allowing for a percentage of the wounded being returned to the front line, that's 9,000 men a month dying in a war where they had the planning, prep and resource advantage.

It's all very static at the moment.

From what I can tell the speculation is that the area around Svatove has switched from wet to icy with two more weeks of freezing due.

That would change things from mud to conditions more favourable to advancing forward because of the harder ground conditions.

The argument is that, at present, there is little to be gained for Ukraine by trying to move as its too risky to expose themselves to getting stuck in mud. Instead letting the Russians burn themselves out with lower moral and hypothermia in the cold weather is preferable. They are better to wait for an opportunity and more favourable conditions first.

But yeah very little movement atm which is one of the reasons I've gone a bit quiet on this thread of late.

Thanks for the explanation Redtoothbrush. It does feel like there is a lull on the battlefield. Sadly, RU artillery attacks on civilian infrastructure continue.

Desdemona, appreciate your stepping in for ReleaseTheDucks in the takeaways.

More Russian Savagery:

The Wagner mercenary group has reportedly created a "Wild Company" made up of its most violent convict recruits, described as being "thugs among thugs". It follows in a tradition of Russian "Wild Companies" known for their savagery in previous conflicts.

twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/1598355849805561857?s=61&t=4gk4ZJzn8Rpw0AnWvBfzMw

The Ukrainians are reporting that Ru forces are pulling back from the river towns opposite Kherson City. They are reportedly taking a lot of tube artillery and HIMARS fire.

Russia withdrawing forces from towns opposite of Kherson, Ukraine says

RUSI, a British military think tank, has released a very thorough and insightful analysis of the first six months of the war.

Preliminary Lessons in Conventional Warfighting from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: February–July 2022

The link is to an easily understood executive summary. Military geeks can download the full report as a PDF using a link at the top of the page.

TL;DR - the Russians had no plan B to fall back on when things didn't go as expected, and the Russian army is a dysfunctional, corrupt mess, top to bottom.

Looks promising as I believe he refused to talk to him at all earlier in the year.

To be honest this is they way I see it ending eventually. everyone has said nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine. However if there is any sort of negotiation about NATO expansion that Putin can play to his people as a win then it's possible he could well retreat to pre feb 24th borders and claim a "Victory" over NATO expansion. This technically wouldn't consist of Ukraine having to cede any post February territory.

Personally I don't like the idea as it would seem that the whole thing would be misconstrued as NATOs fault and it's because of NATO all these people had to die.

After all it's alot easier for Russia to make concessions to NATO than it is for them to make concessions to Ukraine.

@Hancox432 and @Greenshake who is talking about pre-2014 borders or negotiation? Russia can dream lie clutch at straws- all it wants. It ain't getting it.

Oops, I read pre-2014 as pre-24 March 2022. Yeah, pre-2014 is acceptable to Ukraine, I guess. Don't see Russia offering that though.

I don’t personally see any concessions on NATO expansion considering the NATO foreign ministers just agreed that Ukraine is on a path to NATO membership. It’s not going to happen any time soon for a raft of reasons but it’s a definite statement of strategic vision.

The line has been and should remain pre 2014 borders. Russia back behind its own borders. Maybe, when they do start negotiations Ukraine could insist on a buffer zone inside the Russian border.

Ukrainian defence ministry states that 101Ukrainian female soldiers have been killed since February 24

mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1598402805085208591 news of the raccoon

I don’t personally see any concessions on NATO expansion considering the NATO foreign ministers just agreed that Ukraine is on a path to NATO membership. It’s not going to happen any time soon for a raft of reasons but it’s a definite statement of strategic vision.

In another statement of long-term strategic vision, the US DoD has awarded a $1.2B contract for NASAMS air defense systems for Ukraine. The delivery date is November 2025.

Pentagon contracts NASAMS air defense systems for Ukraine

Yes they discussed this in the Ukraine the Latest podcast today. Reading into it that the US consider it likely that Ukraine will endure as a sovereign western facing nation. Excellent news!

twitter.com/IrynaVoichuk/status/1598371689670316045?s=20&t=wyLvKvucMYzHwcRSm1kZUg

Mariupol this time last year 😭

That video is heartbreaking to watch, as now we know exactly what was to come.

Don't know if its disappeared from twitter or just twitter being rubbish but just tells me something went wrong when I try to click on that

That's so odd, still works for me. Its just a drone video of Mariupol with its Christmas lights and tree up.

Very small on the scale of suffering in Ukraine but I've caught Covid, I'll do the roundups again when Im feeling better

Just twitter being shit then. Maybe it'll work on my phone. So sad to think of how much has changed since last year :(

Hope you get better soon

Oh no @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar get better soon.

Just flicking through Twitter and there's so much pro-Russian bullshit about rebuilding Mariupol and life flourishing there (and don't get me started on the imbecile filming a music video standing on top of the destroyed theatre!) Its absolutely grotesque.

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar covid is so strange, dh didn't know he had it, I was bedridden. I really hope you have a relatively mild version and get well quickly.

There’s no single coronavirus template is there? Such a range of effects.

Get well.